Code:
04./02. [PS3] Yakuza: Ishin! <ADV> (Sega) {2014.02.22} (¥8.600) - 54.148 / 192.305 (-61%)It's not the Yakuza Ishin number that makes PS4 future worrying. Lackluster software line up said that better than Ishin.
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Media Create Sales: Week 9, 2014 (Feb 24 - Mar 02)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
It's not the Yakuza Ishin number that makes PS4 future worrying. Lackluster software line up said that better than Ishin.
I really don't understand Vita people. They spread doom and gloom because 3DS is down YoY, but it's still a good amount above Vita. And now we're at the point where the Vita will be down YoY too, but somehow it's still year of the Vita? And that's ignoring the fact that most of the software on the Top 30 every week is 3DS.
Thanks! Downloaded 4GB while they're still free!
I think they'll wait a little. Until Summer or Fall, when Freedom Wars and Phantasy Star Nova are released. They'll keep that card if they want to gain some momentum.
Pricedropping a new model 4 months after its release would be a little rage inducing too xD.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
It took a looooong time for Vita sku's to overtake PSP sku's of cross-gen shit. Japan seemingly has a real problem adopting new hardware and going all in. A culture of "good enough" has really sucked the wind out of console uptake.
Its a worry when we all know most third parties will still be PS3 releasing two years from now and showing little speed in jumping off of it. That Persona 5 isn't even cross-gen just compounds the whole mess. I'm not sure what the solution is beyond Sony brute-forcing a ton of their own entries in genres and hoping they stimulate uptake which is what the rumours suggest they're up to.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Japan finally paying dust to this shitty series. Marvelous is such a great company, they should use their money to develop/publish something else. Same for XSeed!
dat 50k growth
Total including digital sales: 500,628
Also its biggest week since launch (52.901).
clay_ghost
Member
They haven't broke yet?
theprodigy
Member
Does this mean that the 3DS now has the dubious honour of 'champion'
well
soon it'll fall to PS4, then shortly after Vita will go back to it
Who is proclaiming its the year of the Vita? The people who are touting "#Vita2014yolo" are just fooling around
But you have to give the Vita credit. For a system just getting a bunch of niche games, it's amazing that it's holding in the 18K-25K range
Just to be clear, when I talk about the 3DS being down majorly year over year, I'm noting that the only healthy platform in the dedicated device market is becoming problematic, which is not good for the overall industry.
I'm not trying to talk up the Vita, which is a joke platform in a market so bad that it seems to be securing spot #2.
Don't take it too seriously because most people are not actually being serious and they/we do realise what kind of position Vita is in.
Saying that, Vita is currently up YoY, which shows that things are improving, it's still selling bad but at very least it's selling less bad than it did a year ago. 3DS being down YoY just plain bad for the market, considering it's the market leader and everything else has almost irrelevant hardware sales.
Japan finally paying dust to this shitty series. Marvelous is such a great company, they should use their money to develop/publish something else. Same for XSeed!
dat 50k growth
Total including digital sales: 500,628
Also its biggest week since launch (52.901).
I seriously don't understand why they produced 3 entries for that game. I really don't.
test_account
XP-39C²
Taken from the previous Media Create thread:
It was indeed well acknowledged that price and the game selection were some of the main factors for PS3 low sale in the begining like you mention. But not many expected the PS3 to hit 10 million based on the early sales and the very strong competition from the Wii. The "wait for (insert game here)" arguement for PS3 was made fun of several of times for example, the most infamous one might be "wait for Virtua Fighter 5" (which was one of the first big title for PS3 in Japan). So early on there wasnt exactly any big optimism when it comes to the majority of the people that some games would turn around the sales pattern for the PS3 in a big way. I am sure that someone thought it, but there was definitelly much discussion around it that it wouldnt do much, so everyone didnt think it would happen. There were also talk about if the bigger games could give a temporary sales spike for the PS3 hardware instead of having a long term boost effect.
I dont know and percentange of how many that predicted what, but personally i can not remember many (if any?) 10 million predictions for PS3 in Japan in 2007 at least. The Media Create threads from that time are still up and running, so everyone can go back and look if they want I do remember some predictions that the PS3 might not even outsell the Gamecube though. I'm not going to bash those predictions because the PS3 was selling bad in the begining, but it shows that long-term predictions might end up turning out to be very different from what will actually happen.
I cant comment much regarding the 5-6 years expected life cycle because i dont know what people thought about that. However, we did know that both the PS1 and PS2 kept on selling after the successors were released, so people should have accounted for that with the PS3 as well when the PS4 came out, unless they thought that the PS3 would be discontinued early, but in that case it shows that such a prediction didnt turn out like it would have been predicted. But regardless of how long the previous console generation was expected to last, its exactly this unknown factor that shows that long-term predictions might turn out to be very different from whats actually going to happen. That is my main point Predicting long-term based on very early data doesnt necessarily end up being correct.
EDIT: By the way, Metal Gear Solid 4 didnt really do much for the PS3 hardware sales in Japan. It caused a spike in the hardware sales the same week when MGS4 launched, but after that it went quickly down. It was factors like this that made some people think that the PS3 wasnt going to change the sales pattern a lot. Here you can see a graph of the PS3 hardware sales:
The spike in week 31 is when MGS4 was released.
http://garaph.info/linecompare.php//weeks/52/sum/0/html/2/sys-0/PS3/date-0/2007-11-06
No no, i'm not saying that
It was indeed well acknowledged that price and the game selection were some of the main factors for PS3 low sale in the begining like you mention. But not many expected the PS3 to hit 10 million based on the early sales and the very strong competition from the Wii. The "wait for (insert game here)" arguement for PS3 was made fun of several of times for example, the most infamous one might be "wait for Virtua Fighter 5" (which was one of the first big title for PS3 in Japan). So early on there wasnt exactly any big optimism when it comes to the majority of the people that some games would turn around the sales pattern for the PS3 in a big way. I am sure that someone thought it, but there was definitelly much discussion around it that it wouldnt do much, so everyone didnt think it would happen. There were also talk about if the bigger games could give a temporary sales spike for the PS3 hardware instead of having a long term boost effect.I dont know and percentange of how many that predicted what, but personally i can not remember many (if any?) 10 million predictions for PS3 in Japan in 2007 at least. The Media Create threads from that time are still up and running, so everyone can go back and look if they want
I do remember some predictions that the PS3 might not even outsell the Gamecube though. I'm not going to bash those predictions because the PS3 was selling bad in the begining, but it shows that long-term predictions might end up turning out to be very different from what will actually happen.I cant comment much regarding the 5-6 years expected life cycle because i dont know what people thought about that. However, we did know that both the PS1 and PS2 kept on selling after the successors were released, so people should have accounted for that with the PS3 as well when the PS4 came out, unless they thought that the PS3 would be discontinued early, but in that case it shows that such a prediction didnt turn out like it would have been predicted. But regardless of how long the previous console generation was expected to last, its exactly this unknown factor that shows that long-term predictions might turn out to be very different from whats actually going to happen. That is my main point
Predicting long-term based on very early data doesnt necessarily end up being correct.EDIT: By the way, Metal Gear Solid 4 didnt really do much for the PS3 hardware sales in Japan. It caused a spike in the hardware sales the same week when MGS4 launched, but after that it went quickly down. It was factors like this that made some people think that the PS3 wasnt going to change the sales pattern a lot. Here you can see a graph of the PS3 hardware sales:
The spike in week 31 is when MGS4 was released.
http://garaph.info/linecompare.php//weeks/52/sum/0/html/2/sys-0/PS3/date-0/2007-11-06
Colonel Mustard
Banned
Holy shit Harvest Moon. Marvelous has done a fantastic job of revitalizing that franchise. Props to Level 5 as well. They create create semi-big franchises like no one's business.
The software sales this week actually improved the system's overall attach rate over last week. There's about 70K in the Famitsu top 30.
I just looked at Tecmo sales and I never noticed they have always been relatively small. Since 1996, 23 games even crossed 100k (Famitsu available sales). If I raise the bar to 200k, we're left with only 7 (The last one being in 2007 for the DS).
In comparison, I have 61 Koei releases over 100k (counting post-merge Musou games as Koei only), 30 over 200k.
Code:
Deception series:
FW / LTD
38,489 / 135,595 [PS1] Tecmo's Deception: Invitation to Darkness {1996-07-26} (Tecmo)
65,380 / 217,410 [PS1] Kagero: Deception II {1998-07-23} (Tecmo)
39,958 / 59,151 [PS1] Deception III: Dark Delusion {1999-12-09} (Tecmo)
63,461 / 94,267 [PS2] Trapt {2005-06-30} (Tecmo)
[B][U]24,315 / NEW [PS3] Deception IV: Blood Ties {2014-02-27} (Koei Tecmo)[/U][/B]
[B][U]18,032 / NEW [PSV] Deception IV: Blood Ties {2014-02-27} (Koei Tecmo)[/U][/B]SmokyDave is currently banned, so everyone is compensating for his absence.
Not really. Valhalla Knights has a dedicated fanbase there. Sales haven't really dropped if you see how much the expanded version of Valhalla Knights 2 sold (Battle Stance, I think it was called).
___
Soul Sacrifice Delta is next week. It doesn't have a cheaper upgrade on PSN, right? I think I read it somewhere in last week thread, but he/she may be wrong.
Honestly, I think it's too early to consider the 3DS sales problematic. There's no calling 50% down YoY good or even decent, but that's hardly surprising after 3 years of almost constant increase YoY (2013 did end up lower than 2012, but still pretty close... sales didn't exactly drop like a rock).
They'll start becoming problematic if Nintendo doesn't do anything in the upcoming months (and I'm sure they will have a new model soon.... I've already said it several times, it's no coincidence they didn't launch any new model last year).
But it's clear the 3DS isn't performing as well as it should. But still : software sales are still real healthy (Harvest Moon is really significant since the best-seller was released during the DS era and its insane sales).
I think we can expect some interesting stuff 3DS-wise in the upcoming months, especially since Nintendo's released pretty much all their big hitters already.
Harvest Moon's looking hot!
Will be down YoY? If the average per week is 19.5K or higher the next five weeks it will still be up YoY and after that sales were poor with the average from W15-35 being under 16K, something the Vita hasn't seen in Japan since the PCH-1000.
So there was a cheaper upgrade on PSN for owners of Valhalla Knights 3?
Better than Animal Crossing
Moor-Angol
Banned
it's just an expanded version, not a new chapter
VH3 sold 70k, it's normal they continue to milk the series, the shitty thing is people who bought the vanilla version should buy again the game at full price just to play some new classes and some new stages
the funny thing is VH3 has better textures than MH4
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
Pokemon ax and Y still chugging along. Anyone have comparisons to older generations?
michaelius
Banned
Actually it's growing
VK3 matched previous entries which didn't have digital sales
Okay, so, kind of on-topic: I've always liked harvest moon but I haven't played any of the titles in a while, I own A Wonderful Life and Magical Melody. So, where should I start with a new one? I've heard good things about A New Beginning, but I'm also content with waiting a bit until Linking the New World is out in NA, it's great that it had such a good opening in Japan (the series' best!).
I think something can be problematic even if it's not an overly long period of time.
It not being problematic hinges on Nintendo doing something to change it, which they haven't announced anything yet, and then that thing working satisfactorily.
But yes software sales aren't crashing. Stagnation would be the main short term concern, especially for larger titles.
Knack Sell through was 80-100%
IIRC this is still the bundled version which would mean they pretty much sold out the whole shipment .
Road posted about that also :
I could see a slight rise if new stock is available but the general expectation around here is that without new software it will go lower .
I see, thanks !
I was asking because the time Pre- orders where opened in Japan there where a lot of arguments here that Amazon oos messages where met with posts that it was a useless metric and told us nothing .
Taken from the previous Media Create thread:
No no, i'm not saying that
I dont know and percentange of how many that predicted what, but personally i can not remember many (if any?) 10 million predictions for PS3 in Japan in 2007 at least. The Media Create threads from that time are still up and running, so everyone can go back and look if they want
I cant comment much regarding the 5-6 years expected life cycle because i dont know what people thought about that. However, we did know that both the PS1 and PS2 kept on selling after the successors were released, so people should have accounted for that with the PS3 as well when the PS4 came out, unless they thought that the PS3 would be discontinued early, but in that case it shows that such a prediction didnt turn out like it would have been predicted. But regardless of how long the previous console generation was expected to last, its exactly this unknown factor that shows that long-term predictions might turn out to be very different from whats actually going to happen. That is the main point
EDIT: Metal Gear Solid 4 didnt really do much for the PS3 hardware sales in Japan by the way. It caused a spike in the hardware sales the same week when MGS4 launched, but after that it went quickly down. Here you can see a graph of it:
The spike in week 31 is when MGS4 was released.
http://garaph.info/linecompare.php//weeks/52/sum/0/html/2/sys-0/PS3/date-0/2007-11-06
PS3s first price drop didn´t happen until October 17 and the release of the cheaper 40gb model in Nov11 2007. That a single game early 2007 couldn´t change singlehandledly and immediatly the situation is common sense considering the price was still the same at that point. The PS3 was still priced too high and only at the end of 2007 reduced and the biggest card Final Fantasy not even in sight yet. I already asked you but again what was the most common prediction back than in Japan? Because quite honestly I doubt that most were far off the mark in the end.
It's because Amazon could simply have a low amount of stock. However, say something is consistently low in the charts, it's possible that there just isn't a demand for it.
Okay I thought about this statement again and it's bothering me mathematically.
2011: 4,282,142 (launch, sets baseline)
2012: 5,497,737 (first YoY increase)
2013: 4.882.040 (first YoY decline)
2014: So far down nearly 50% YoY.
There's only one year of YoY increase, not three years of YoY increases. That's what's odd about the system. Historically platforms would peak in year 3 (two years of YoY increases) and then have a slower drop off the year after, yet we're seeing a system that suggests it peaked in year 2 and that this year's decline is a more traditional parabolic decline from that assumption.
Sammy Samusu
Member
3DS : Youkai Watch ( Level 5 ) { 2013-07-11 } - 52.901 / 496.333
NDS : Inazuma Eleven ( Level 5 ) { 2008-08-22 } - 41.458 / 401.820
PSP : Little Battlers eXperience ( Level 5 ) { 2011-06-16 } - 163.834 / 328.323
NDS : Inazuma Eleven ( Level 5 ) { 2008-08-22 } - 41.458 / 401.820
PSP : Little Battlers eXperience ( Level 5 ) { 2011-06-16 } - 163.834 / 328.323
vicissitudes
Banned
Speak for yourself. We are talking about the market leader in Japan by far last year versus a dead system, and this year it's selling within striking distance week after week? I believe in the Year of the Vita (TM). #20V1T4
michaelius
Banned
It's funny how Vita perception changes in MC threads
2012: Vita will be discontinued by spring 2014
2013: ports of ps3 and psp games won't save Vita
2014: 3DS is still above
2015: ....
clay_ghost
Member
I wondered why level 5 never bothered to localize little Battlers eXperience for 3DS at least . I am sure it will sell decent to the Pokemon audiences.Oh well i think Youkai Watch is coming and i am more interested in that anyway. Little batter should still have a chance since Inazuma Eleven was remake and release after 5 years plus lol.
Fine Ham Abounds
Member
Technically, it's geometric praise, not hyperbolic
Selling 20 of something you sold 10 of last month still means you doubled your sales
Are there really a lot of people still trying to muster a handheld console war? Both systems have great games, and neither should consider their install base comfortable.
Magicpaint
Member
IIRC PS2's very first year on the market was its peak year for sales (though the next couple of years were very comparable of course). DS peaked in 2006 despite launching in very late 2004. If you look at DS and compare it with 3DS, the sales trends are actually very similar. In 2008 the DS experienced a comparable drop to what we're seeing with the 3DS now; the only difference is that there was a PSP ascension to help ease the impact of the drop. But looking outside of a market context there's nothing really odd about the 3DS decline compared to its predecessor and another 4.5-5m YTD was completely out of the question...we just don't have anything to make up for this steep decline (Vita YoY increase isn't significant enough). That's kind of why I want the PS4 to do well. The dedicated hardware market is looking anaemic without at least two systems thriving on a mainstream scale.
Code:
PS4 RELEASE SCHEDULE
03/19 - Nobunaga's Ambition Online
03/20 - MGSV Demo
04/14 - FFXIV ARR Online
04/?? - Natural Doctrine
05/01 - Child of Light (PSN)
05/22 - notFamous
05/29 - Trials Fusion
06/05 - WolfensteinI think I'm gonna frame this and put it on a wall.
For comparison:
Wii U:
12/13 - Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12
12/20 - Call of Duty: Black Ops II
12/20 - ESPN Sports Connection
12/20 - Family Party: 30 Great Games Obstacle Arcade
12/26 - Tank! Tank! Tank!
01/31 - Fist of the North Star: Ken's Rage 2
02/07 - Wii Street U (eShop)
02/21 - Monster Hunter 3G Packet Relay Tool
02/21 - Tank! Tank! Tank!
02/27 - Nano Assault Neo (eShop)
03/20 - EarthBound (Virtual Console)
03/20 - Need for Speed: Most Wanted U
03/28 - Game & Wario
03/30 - Dragon Quest X Online
omg I miss that show... You are... The Weakest Link. Goodbye~!
You're right, "3 years of YoY increase was terrible wording on my part, as it's totally not the case. What I meant was '3 years of strong sales'.
About systems peaking in Year 3, I'm not really surprised it's not the case for the 3DS. If you think about it, Nintendo didn't follow their usual pattern for revisions :
1) console launched in 2011
2) XL revision launched in 2012
3) nothing in 2013, the 3rd year
Usually, they relese a new revisions when sales start to drop, but when they released the XL, sales were still up YoY (I actually remember them saying the XL was made for the Western markets... and it actually worked, since that model now makes up for the vast majority of 3DS sold nowadays).
With the GBA and Nintendo DS, they did things diferently :
1) GBA launched in 2001, SP launched in 2003 (Year 3)
2) DS Lite launched in 2006, DSi launched in 2008 (Year 3)*
* I'm not taking the OG DS into account since sales didn't really take off until the DS Lite was launched.
So the 3DS got its model revision a year sooner, compared to their two previous handhelds, and that's one of the main reasons it's down YoY in early 2014. My take is : Nintendo knew it didn't need a new model revision in 2013, not with Pokémon and Monster Hunter (though I'm sure they weren't totally expecting sales to be down YoY... which lead to a worse decrease YoY in early 2014).
And in my opinion, it's something Nintendo planned from the start, which is why I'm expecting a new model revision (not sure if they'll bother with the 2DS).
PhantomOfTheKnight
Member
IIRC Bamco have the license in the west and the anime will air on Nicktoons later this year, so there's sil a decent chance it'll come over.
Sammy Samusu
Member
I don't agree. ________________ will save the Japanese games industry.