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Michael Pachter shares his 2017 predictions

There's a bunch of predictions from other analysts at the link.

2017 Predictions:

Michael Pachter said:
This year:

1.) PS4 price goes to $199. I think Sony is intent upon keeping Microsoft in distant second, and expect a price cut for standard PS4 (slim) to $199 before year-end 2017.

2.) No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption. Rockstar hasn't released a "new" game since 2013, and Red Dead will consume all of its efforts in 2017.

3.) Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold.

4.) Super Mario Run is a huge hit out of the gate, and interest peters out by June. Notwithstanding the brand's popularity, Nintendo is making a strategic error with its "free-to-start" business model, and I expect sales to drop off relatively quickly.

5.) Pokemon Go drops out of the top 10 in every country with a population greater than 20 million. The game was fun, but there's only so many Pokemon to capture.

6.) The Switch is sold out through September. The console looks fun, the price appears to be right, and I expect demand to be high. If there is a lot of third-party support (games, not merely labels), I think demand remains high.

7.) The Xbox Scorpio is priced at $399. This might not be low enough, particularly if PS4 Pro drops before holiday 2017, but Microsoft has to price competitively or fall farther behind.

8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.
Source: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/2016-12-20-what-to-expect-in-the-games-biz-for-2017

Before people get excited for #8, I feel I should note that Bethesda has already said they won't have another console game for years, and that TES6 isn't even in meaningful development yet. They've implied they're working on a new IP first as far as AAA console games go. We might see their second mobile title in 2017 however, so if that's Elder Scrolls based, Pachter could be technically correct.

He also graded himself for last year's predictions:

Michael Pachter said:
Last year's prediction report card:

Sony will abandon the Vita - A-. It looks like it has been discontinued, but no official announcement. No appearance at E3, either.

Miitomo will be a commercial flop - A+. Not a word on revenue in over a year, and few words about it at all.

Nintendo's second mobile game will be a success, predicted to be a Super Mario platformer-B+. Pokemon Go is not a Nintendo game, but was a huge success. Super Mario Run is its second game (by a hair), and is off to a very good start.

NX will not come in 2016 - A+.

Activision's first joint effort with King will be a Skylanders driving game-Incomplete. We don't know yet, no joint efforts yet.

The Assassin's Creed movie will be a modest success - A. It's looking really good based upon the trailers.
 

Shift Breaker

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Jan 19, 2015
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Seems fair. I don't expect a new Elder Scrolls next year, but the rest all seem possible.

Oh, wait, hold on. Patcher thread.

Switch confirmed to be well in stock all year.
 

MoogPaul

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He might want to reevaluate his score on that asscreed prediction. It's getting average video game movie reviews (ala terrible)
 

Kyoufu

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Both PS4 and XB1 have dropped price together so if one goes $199 the other will likely follow.

Besides, it doesn't take an analyst to see that PS4 will see another $50 drop next holiday season.

Scorpio at $399 seems logical. It'll be interesting to see how it fares against Pro which will likely be cheaper in 2017. Both could be a non-factor in console sales compared to standard, cheaper models.
 

LordKano

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Jul 11, 2016
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Brussels, Belgium.
A Bethesda PR outright said that TESVI isn't in development, how could they have it launching in 2017 then ?

Am I more informed by browsing neogaf than a professionnal analyst who does that for a living ?
 

Vena

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A Bethesda PR outright said that TESVI isn't in development, how could they have it launching in 2017 then ?

Am I more informed by browsing neogaf than a professionnal analyst who does that for a living ?
Same way MvC wasn't in development and then suddenly was.
 

kswiston

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what is regular PS4 price in the US? $299 (I'm in Canada, so $299 is a super sales price)?

We might get $249 as the standard price next fall, with some $199 sales. I doubt the MSRP will be $199 that soon though.
 

Xater

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Jul 28, 2007
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This is why you don't grade yourself...

Also no idea what Pachter means by the price is right for the Switch. We don't know the price.

Considering there have already been sales for under 200€ for the PS4 that price drop seems plausible.
 

chadskin

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Sony will abandon the Vita - A-. It looks like it has been discontinued, but no official announcement. No appearance at E3, either.
It got a couple of shoutouts (and port announcements) at PSX, though. C-! Sad!
 

kswiston

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I don't think ES6 is coming next year, but developers lie about games in development that they aren't ready to show yet. What Bethesda says on the subject isn't the word of god.
 

Lionel Richie

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And now Pachter is making predictions I actually agree with, what the fuck is going on with 2016?
 

Vena

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Actually, it wasn't like that. Eventhubs (I think it was them) just reposted a years-old interview with more recent dates for more clicks.
Oh is that right? Wasn't aware! Nevermind.

Also no idea what Pachter means by the price is right for the Switch. We don't know the price.
He's probably going off the leaked price.
 

Arkeband

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Mar 11, 2015
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8 has to be a troll, there's no indication that ES6 is even in full swing development and every year that passes is a year less of interest in Half Life 3. It's just an internet meme at this point, and it's a tired meme at that.

I think he's too optimistic with the Switch but he's being purposefully vague there anyway.

The rest are fairly obvious.
 

Busty

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All solid bets.

I'm not sold on MS potentially taking a hit to bring the Scorpio in for £399 but I suppose we'll see how Sony prices the PS4Pro before then.
 

SuperEpicMan

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I think we will probably see a new non-Bethesda Fallout in 2017. The last one had a really short time between announcement and release, and it did really well, so I would expect the same next year.
 

iTehDroiD

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"Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer."

Highly doubt that. I don't understand why people still think there will be a MW4. Sledgehammer will either do AW2 or a new sub-ip like their Vietnam CoD in first person imo.

"The Xbox Scorpio is priced at $399"

From what Phil has said I doubt that as well. It will be priced at 449$ or 499$. I doubt MS is able to get a console at 399$ with two more teraflops than the PS4 Pro in just a year without a reduction in node size. I also expect them to ship the scorpio with a UHD drive so that makes it even more expensive to produce.

"The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out"

As OP has stated this will definitely not happen anytime soon.

Does Pachter actually read gaming related news?
 

Coonce

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8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I'd like to be half wrong on this one.
:( please be wrong!
 

bigkrev

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PS4 will get a full-time price cut to $249, and the Black Friday/Holiday price will be $199
I can't speak to the Pokemon Go one, but can say that all my friends that were playing it have stopped, and the only Pokemon game they played was Red/Blue so I don't think adding new Pokeomon is going to do anything to bring them back.
 

GoldandBlue

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No it's what they get for releasing a movie a week after Star Wars with a budget of 130 to 200 million dollars.
I think the movie was doomed regardless of that, especially now since it's reviewing poorly.

But yeah it will likely do even worst thanks to Star Wars.
 

Diablohead

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A lot of that list is what I expect to see also, maybe not the $399 scorpio, but that would be nice.
 

IcyRhythms

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All solid bets.

I'm not sold on MS potentially taking a hit to bring the Scorpio in for £399 but I suppose we'll see how Sony prices the PS4Pro before then.
It's not really going to be much of a hit. I guess we know little about changes to the CPU. Should be interesting.