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Sales-Age Mizuho Securities: PS4 wins NPD

Unknown?

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“Game hardware (including SNES Classic, etc.) sales volume in the US was up 44% in November (cumulative Apr–Nov FY3/18 sales were up 38%), while software sales were up 2% (down 1%). The PS4 came out top for hardware
sales, with a likely large impact from Black Friday sales. The Xbox One, which launched the new high-spec X console, came in second. Both consoles saw roughly 40% growth YoY.

The Switch saw a large increase in sales volume in comparison to October, but we still sense that trends are slowing down. We do not explicitly forecast monthly sales volumes in each region, but we have the impression that US sales volume for the Switch in November was within expectations. Nintendo's hardware sales tend to see strong trends in December thanks to seasonal demand, and thus we believe that sales will grow MoM in December.”

There are no specific numbers in the update but the included figure seem to show PS4:Switch at about 2:1 and Xbox One was marginally (maybe 10%) less than PS4. Using last year’s numbers and the 40% growth we get rough estimates for the consoles though:

*edit* numbers and percentages are wrong but the ranking is the same.

Source is a report from Mizuho Securities Equity Research, they send monthly update on US/Japan console game sales to their clients.

We’ll see what Dec brings but with the lack of a substantial amount of preorders for One X and Switch likely doing better I can see Switch and Xbox swapping positions next month.
 

Kid Ying

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With all that reports that switch was the best selling item on Black Friday, i wasn't expecting such a large difference between those consoles.
 

Journey

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PS4 and Xbox One were neck & neck, wow. I wonder what December numbers will be like.
 

Unknown?

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With all that reports that switch was the best selling item on Black Friday, i wasn't expecting such a large difference between those consoles.
That was based on online sells when PS4 was already sold out at all major retailers. Also November NPD ends the 25th which excludes Cyber Monday. December should be higher as it is traditionally for consoles especially Nintendo consoles.


PS4 and Xbox One were neck & neck, wow. I wonder what December numbers will be like.
Xbox is estimated to have 400k X preorders. If the X didn’t launch it’d probably be around 1M like last year. I predict 1M for December and 1M for Switch.
 

Adam_802

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Good to see XB1 doing really well, even beating the Switch and coming close to ps4. ps4 likely won bc of more black friday discounts.
 

Unknown?

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Good to see XB1 doing really well, even beating the Switch and coming close to ps4. ps4 likely won bc of more black friday discounts.
Huh? Xbox was cheaper everywhere on Black Friday and had months of preorders to bolster its numbers as well. Still very healthy numbers for all. I still expect Switch to pass Xbox in December though.
 

frogger

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The amazing discount on PS4 slim really helped. I picked up a slim on BF even after I bought the X.
 

amdb00mer

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Huh? Xbox was cheaper everywhere on Black Friday and had months of preorders to bolster its numbers as well. Still very healthy numbers for all. I still expect Switch to pass Xbox in December though.
Sony had their PS4 deals out a week or two before Black Friday, so they had more time to sell more discounted consoles. MS made a bad choice to wait for Black Friday. As soon as Sony lowered theirs, MS should have followed suit.
 

Unknown?

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Sony had their PS4 deals out a week or two before Black Friday, so they had more time to sell more discounted consoles. MS made a bad choice to wait for Black Friday. As soon as Sony lowered theirs, MS should have followed suit.
True. Maybe they felt confident in months of X preorders to garner them a win. Their discounts went on far after Sony’s though because PS4 was sold out which was a mistake on Sony’s part for not having more supply. Maybe that will reflect in December NPD.
 

amdb00mer

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True. Maybe they felt confident in months of X preorders to garner them a win. Their discounts went on far after Sony’s though because PS4 was sold out which was a mistake on Sony’s part for not having more supply. Maybe that will reflect in December NPD.
I'm thinking if NPD does come out and say Sony won, MS will just spin it and say they are not concerned as they were selling a premium product in X1X. I would like to know the split in sales between the X1X and X1S. As far as the X1X goes, I love my Xbox One X purchase. More satisfied with it than my PS4 Pro purchase. When it's all said and done though, all consoles sold great and that is the most important thing.
 
Feb 15, 2013
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Can't believe PS4 still outsold both XB1 and XB1X despite crazy discounts from MS. I don't know what they can do at this point.
 

primovinny

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Can't believe PS4 still outsold both XB1 and XB1X despite crazy discounts from MS. I don't know what they can do at this point.
PS4 had crazy discounts, more signifcant ones than MS did. Nothing too surprising really. This is actually a good proof that players care less about exclusives and more about price. If the Switch had a discount it would sell like crazy, like the PS4 and XOneS.
 
Nov 11, 2014
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Can't believe PS4 still outsold both XB1 and XB1X despite crazy discounts from MS. I don't know what they can do at this point.
Theyre doing okay in the US it seems even though theyre still clealry second fiddle, but they arent dominating it like last gen. Its that international market theyve gotten crushed on and probably always will. If they dont somehow reclaim domination in the states, then this will continue next gen as well.
 

Swass

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PS4 had crazy discounts, more signifcant ones than MS did. Nothing too surprising really. This is actually a good proof that players care less about exclusives and more about price. If the Switch had a discount it would sell like crazy, like the PS4 and XOneS.
This is some interesting spin.. I would think the opposite, Microsoft launched a machine they had been hyping for a year and a half and undercut Sony by $10 on their base machine and still did not win the month. I think that speaks volumes..
 

labaronx

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We this would be completely different then what i was expecting, but it seems all parties did well in nov and likely will in dec.... feb -may is what im waiting to see
 

Leonidas

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This is some interesting spin.. I would think the opposite, Microsoft launched a machine they had been hyping for a year and a half and undercut Sony by $10 on their base machine and still did not win the month. I think that speaks volumes..
A whole 5% price difference on the base machines...

PS4 was on sale for 9 days and there were even deals on PS4 Pro.

Xbox was on sale for a shorter period of time and Xbox One X is a $500 machine. If the split is 1M and 400K for Xbox One and Xbox One X I don't see how that can be seen as being bad...
 

Unknown?

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A whole 5% price difference on the base machines...

PS4 was on sale for 9 days and there were even deals on PS4 Pro.

Xbox was on sale for a shorter period of time and Xbox One X is a $500 machine. If the split is 1M and 400K for Xbox One and Xbox One X I don't see how that can be seen as being bad...
Uh there were no official deals on the Pro. Only retailer specific by two retailers and those didn’t last long.
 

Leonidas

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Uh there were no official deals on the Pro. Only retailer specific by two retailers and those didn't last long.
Best Buy, Walmart, GameStop, Target, Amazon... that's more than two.
 

Unknown?

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Isn't this physical in-store only? or digital too?
NPD tracks brick and mortar and online retailers. Anyway it’s been discovered that the percentages are too vague making the numbers incorrect. The ranking is still the same but we don’t have numbers.

Best Buy, GameStop, Target, Amazon... that's more than two.
None of them were advertised except one and the others likely were just matching. Regardless it was short lived.
 

Leonidas

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NPD tracks brick and mortar and online retailers. Anyway it’s been discovered that the percentages are too vague making the numbers incorrect. The ranking is still the same but we don’t have numbers.


None of them were advertised except one and the others likely were just matching. Regardless it was short lived.
We're just going to ignore the Pro deals like they didn't happen? It was every major retailer in the US and they were posted on all the deal sites, it definitely had some impact on the sales...
 

Swass

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A whole 5% price difference on the base machines...

PS4 was on sale for 9 days and there were even deals on PS4 Pro.

Xbox was on sale for a shorter period of time and Xbox One X is a $500 machine. If the split is 1M and 400K for Xbox One and Xbox One X I don't see how that can be seen as being bad...
5% is pretty big if you have a parent looking for a console and looking for the cheapest price. It means something or someone told them specifically to get a PlayStation since they paid more than the Xbox One S sitting next to it to get one.
 

Leonidas

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5% is pretty big if you have a parent looking for a console and looking for the cheapest price. It means something or someone told them specifically to get a PlayStation since they paid more than the Xbox One S sitting next to it to get one.
For 4 of those days the PS4 was $100 cheaper next to the Xbox One S...
 

Swass

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For 4 of those days the PS4 was $100 cheaper next to the Xbox One S...
So you think this was the difference? I guess the people who decide these things at Microsoft really made a huge miscalculation.. costing them over 100k in unit sales and all.. probably should be fired.
 

Unknown?

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We're just going to ignore the Pro deals like they didn't happen? It was every major retailer in the US and they were posted on all the deal sites, it definitely had some impact on the sales...
Sure it did, I’m just saying they were a tiny blip compared to official deals that were advertised. Casuals had no idea about it, the ones who make up the majority of BF sells. I mean retailers such as Amazon had the One S at $199 before PS4 even dropped but in the scheme of things retailer deals don’t have as big of an effect as official ones. The official Pro deal this month will be much bigger.
 
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5% is pretty big if you have a parent looking for a console and looking for the cheapest price. It means something or someone told them specifically to get a PlayStation since they paid more than the Xbox One S sitting next to it to get one.
People are trying way too hard here. The 199 PS4 was 1TB and the 189 XB1S was 500GB. You really think most people are stupid enough to not see the value in double the memory for $10 price difference? Not to mention the PS4 had $40-60 gift cards ($60 at least from Kohls) and the CoDWW2 PS4 bundle was $199, meaning the base console was $135-140. Then you consider all the bundles (WW2, BF2, GTSport) for new games and lastly the bigger console user base leading to more sales, and it's funny you have people pretending to be shocked that a $500 full price console didn't top a console as low as $135~, when the entire narrative was for months was that $500 won't impact the casual userbase because it's too expensive.

And even still people are downplaying the neck and neck sales as if 40% YoY is a bad thing for Microsoft. I called this a month ago on Resetera and people are quoting me saying I was right.

For 4 of those days the PS4 was $100 cheaper next to the Xbox One S...
Yep, exactly. For a whole week before BF, PS4 was $199 at least at Best Buy. You can tell Sony badly wanted a PR victory, no matter how close. This isn't a bad thing, mind you. But the persecution complex certain people have, like this brings a weight off their shoulders when they don't even work for these companies, is hilarious.
 

Swass

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People are trying way too hard here. The 199 PS4 was 1TB and the 189 XB1S was 500GB. You really think most people are stupid enough to not see the value in double the memory for $10 price difference? Not to mention the PS4 had $40-60 gift cards ($60 at least from Kohls) and the CoDWW2 PS4 bundle was $199, meaning the base console was $135-140. Then you consider all the bundles (WW2, BF2, GTSport) for new games and lastly the bigger console user base leading to more sales, and it's funny you have people pretending to be shocked that a $500 full price console didn't top a console as low as $135~, when the entire narrative was for months was that $500 won't impact the casual userbase because it's too expensive.

And even still people are downplaying the neck and neck sales as if 40% YoY is a bad thing for Microsoft. I called this a month ago on Resetera and people are quoting me saying I was right.
Wasn't the $199 PS4 sold out at some retailers on black Friday? Doesn't that negate your entire point? And you should be up YoY if you are launching new hardware you hyped for a year and a half..
 

labaronx

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People are trying way too hard here. The 199 PS4 was 1TB and the 189 XB1S was 500GB. You really think most people are stupid enough to not see the value in double the memory for $10 price difference? Not to mention the PS4 had $40-60 gift cards ($60 at least from Kohls) and the CoDWW2 PS4 bundle was $199, meaning the base console was $135-140. Then you consider all the bundles (WW2, BF2, GTSport) for new games and lastly the bigger console user base leading to more sales, and it's funny you have people pretending to be shocked that a $500 full price console didn't top a console as low as $135~, when the entire narrative was for months was that $500 won't impact the casual userbase because it's too expensive.

And even still people are downplaying the neck and neck sales as if 40% YoY is a bad thing for Microsoft. I called this a month ago on Resetera and people are quoting me saying I was right.



Yep, exactly. For a whole week before BF, PS4 was $199 at least at Best Buy. You can tell Sony badly wanted a PR victory, no matter how close. This isn't a bad thing, mind you. But the persecution complex certain people have, like this brings a weight off their shoulders when they don't even work for these companies, is hilarious.
The observation some have made is that the 40% yoy growth is entirely contributed to the release if the xb1x and had it not released the xb1s sales "may have" remained stagnant. Xb1s sales have been soft all year, would it have beaten the switch in npd without the xb1x is my question?

And to be fair you could get that 189 xb1s as far back as early October
 
Nov 24, 2016
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Wasn't the $199 PS4 sold out at some retailers on black Friday? Doesn't that negate your entire point? And you should be up YoY if you are launching new hardware you hyped for a year and a half..
What retailers? It wasn't for Best Buy, Gamestop, Wal-Mart at the very least, which accounts for most of the traffic. Online sales were sometimes sold out and restocked momentarily but this doesn't makes difference because if something is sold out, you think someone wouldn't just shop elsewhere for the same price? How does that negate anything? That's like saying because the X1X was unavailable online for some time on Amazon and Best Buy, that it means anything, when in reality anyone could've bought one from a different retailer.

And Mat Piscatela over on the other forum just confirmed these numbers are incorrect. I don't think it will change much as both of these consoles will likely still be neck and neck, but just throwing that out there that the number values in the OP are incorrect.
 

Osukaa

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Congrats PS4! You damn Beast lol !!
I hope it keeps the momentum up. Also pretty nice for Xbox as well. I didn't expect the Switch to be outsold by that big of a margin but Nintendo has nothing to worry about at all. I wonder if it was due to lack of units available? Or maybe the competition's price was to strong?
 

NYCrooner

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ALL of this is great news for console gaming. I wouldn't read too much into XB and Switch being outsold by PS4. Sony is the dominant force in gaming and that is unlikely to ever change. Still room for XB and Switch to be successful in their own right.
 

Norse

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Xbox being outsold by 10% is a good showing. Xbox outselling switch is a great showing.

Would be nice to see % the 1X and PS4 pro had respectfully.
 

Unknown?

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What retailers? It wasn't for Best Buy, Gamestop, Wal-Mart at the very least, which accounts for most of the traffic. Online sales were sometimes sold out and restocked momentarily but this doesn't makes difference because if something is sold out, you think someone wouldn't just shop elsewhere for the same price? How does that negate anything? That's like saying because the X1X was unavailable online for some time on Amazon and Best Buy, that it means anything, when in reality anyone could've bought one from a different retailer.

And Mat Piscatela over on the other forum just confirmed these numbers are incorrect. I don't think it will change much as both of these consoles will likely still be neck and neck, but just throwing that out there that the number values in the OP are incorrect.
The $199 PS4 most certainly was sold out at Best Buy, GameStop, and Amazon on BF. Did you miss all the articles about it selling out online?
 

n0razi

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Can't believe PS4 still outsold both XB1 and XB1X despite crazy discounts from MS. I don't know what they can do at this point.
Get more and better exclusives. Even if you gave me an XB1 for free, I probably wouldnt use it at all since I can play 90% of its games on my PC and I already have a huge backlog of exclusives on PS4/Switch
 

JaxBriggs

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Good for PS4 but hardly surprising. $199 seems to be the sweet spot for bulk impulse buys, and I think next year will be huge again what with what is looking to be another big year for exclusives. Possibly their biggest yet with games like Spider-Man, etc.

Regarding Xbox, I don't believe Phil and Co would be too happy with those results, despite what fans here would tell you. Yes they were up YOY but also had XB1S for $189 and the new XB1X which they've been hyping to hell and back for the last 18 months along with a few months of pre-orders, and they still couldn't take the top spot. As a result, I can see the next month or two being decent for Xbox sales before they start declining again.

Switch being third surprised me the most. I really thought they were going to smash it this holiday season mostly due to how hot they've been lately. I guess not having discounted hardware (apart from various small retailer discounts) didn't do them any favours. Now my question is now that some of Nintendo's heaviest hitters have launched, will the Switch continue on an upward trajectory or will demand start to plateau? The next 12 months will be really interesting in that regard.
 
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Switch being third surprised me the most. I really thought they were going to smash it this holiday season mostly due to how hot they've been lately. I guess not having discounted hardware (apart from various small retailer discounts) didn't do them any favours. Now my question is now that some of Nintendo's heaviest hitters have launched, will the Switch continue on an upward trajectory or will demand start to plateau. The next 12 months will be really interesting in that regard.
With all that reports that switch was the best selling item on Black Friday, i wasn't expecting such a large difference between those consoles.
Most of Nintendo's holiday sales in November were after the NPD deadline for that month. A lot of those sales will carry over into the December NPD.
 

Artvanderlay

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Sony seemed to be having some weird (ongoing) 500gb supply issues which is reflected by the fact there black friday deal was a 1TB deal. Xbox had plenty of cheap 500gb options and the launch of the X and still came in second , WOW.
 
Feb 15, 2013
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PS4 had crazy discounts, more signifcant ones than MS did. Nothing too surprising really. This is actually a good proof that players care less about exclusives and more about price. If the Switch had a discount it would sell like crazy, like the PS4 and XOneS.
Lol be serious.

XB1X was hyped up for 1 year and this NPD includes months and months of pre-orders and hundreds of millions in marketing and deals. And it still doesnt beat the PS4 even when combined with the XB1 and XB1S fire sale. MS are screwed as their hardware sales are absolutely dire anytime outside these Holiday period months. It's this time of the year that they need to sell gangbusters and dominate in their strongest market. They failed to do it with the XB1 and it looks like they'll fail hard with the XB1X + XB1.
 

Mooreberg

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Xbox One X had had a very strange PR cycle. Twice as long as fully new platform likes Xbox One and PS4, but seemingly at the cost of monthly Xbox One sales. Now it is out, Xbox One S is super affordable, and they're still getting outsold. The push to 4K as a mainstream viewing option is slow as molasses compared to 1080p. I have a 4K TV and Comcast doesn't seem like they're going to upgrade over 1080p very soon. 4K movie selection in stores is pretty modest. The prices on TVs have become great, but its like the attending content push is ultra half assed at this point. It isn't 3D TV levels of WTF, but it has never seemed like the smartest thing to hitch your wagon to, either.