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[Black Republican]

huge shift compared to Oct, Carson dropping, Rubio has a decent bump.

Spoiler

Jeb

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IOWA: CRUZ TAKES CAUCUS LEAD
Former Carson supporters swing to Texas senator
West Long Branch, NJ – Ted Cruz commands the top spot in the latest Monmouth University
Poll of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers – his first lead in any early state poll of the 2016 cycle.
Donald Trump and Marco Rubio are within a few percentage points of one another for second place. The
poll also found that an influential House member’s recent endorsement is only one factor behind Cruz’s
rise, which has come primarily at Ben Carson’s expense.
Ted Cruz earns 24% support when likely caucusgoers are asked who they will support in the
Republican contest. This marks a clear lead over Donald Trump (19%), Marco Rubio (17%), and Ben
Carson (13%). Jeb Bush stands at 6% and Rand Paul is at 4%, while Carly Fiorina and John Kasich earn
3% each. None of the other six candidates tested in the poll draws more than 2% support.
Monmouth showed Carson on top two months ago, but his support has plummeted by 19 points
since then. Cruz’s support, on the other hand, has jumped by 14 points. Rubio has seen his vote share
increase by 7 points since October. Support levels for both Trump and Bush are nearly identical to two months ago

What a time to be alive

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/de240398-df23-47b6-8470-91977d38b749.pdf

 

[Archer]

 

[PanicFreak]

Still plenty of time for him to blow it. Does Ted Cruz have a painting of him and Jesus in his house? Maybe it's in the video his team posted to YouTube....

 

[perfectchaos007]

The Carson fad is over. Trump is still up month to month though

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The Carson fad is over. Trump is still up month to month though

1 point differences are considered statistical noise. Margins of error can range from 3-6 percent so it's just movement in that range.

 

[HylianTom]

Iowa can't give Rubio second place. That would give him mo' going into New Hampshire.

Thankfully, his GOTV staff operates out of Starbucks, which won't suffice in a contest like Iowa's.

 

[Gentleman Jack]

1 point differences are considered statistical noise. Margins of error can range from 3-6 percent so it's just movement in that range.

Which makes it so weird that the landscape is still a clowncar.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I could see Cruz winning Iowa. I could see Carson coming back and winning it, too. Or Trump. Hell, whoever. Ultimately, though, I don't think it matters. Iowa doesn't seem that predictive.

 

[Jon Carter]

Any guesses as to what caused Surgeon Benjamin to drop that hard? Was it the lie about having attended a military school or something? Or him emphasizing he was a psychopath that couldn't be trusted with a hammer?

 

[PBY]

I think Cruz will take Iowa. Trump isn't religious enough.

edit: I do think our system is so messed up that Iowa of all places has so much relative sway in this process.

 

[teruterubozu]

Trump could surge if he's willing to accept some Jesus. He should attend a few Sunday services.

 

[Jibbajabbawockky]

Does Iowa really even matter though? Seems like its recently been the most hardcore conservative, especially on social issues, like Huckabee or Santorum that win there and then amount to nothing.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Does Iowa really even matter though? Seems like its recently been the most hardcore conservative, especially on social issues, like Huckabee or Santorum that win there and then amount to nothing.

No candidate has ever failed to win both NH and Iowa in the years they were contested yet still win the nomination since the modern primary era began. It's not a cast-iron law, but between them they have relatively good predictive power.

 

[teruterubozu]

Does Iowa really even matter though? Seems like its recently been the most hardcore conservative, especially on social issues, like Huckabee or Santorum that win there and then amount to nothing.

It's free points for those willing to do the full Grassley.

 

[Catchpenny]

Any guesses as to what caused Surgeon Benjamin to drop that hard? Was it the lie about having attended a military school or something? Or him emphasizing he was a psychopath that couldn't be trusted with a hammer?

The latest surge in terrorism and Islamophobia. Carson is a soft-spoken black neurosurgeon with no foreign policy experience, skills or philosophy. He isn't convincing in saying he's going to deport muslims/destroy ISIS/glass Mecca, and he doesn't have the ability to sell voters on anything more nuanced.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Who to believe...

Teddy Schleifer ‏@teddyschleifer 10m10 minutes ago
NEW CNN poll of Iowa:

Not so fast, Cruz:

Trump 33
Cruz 20
Carson 16
Rubio 11
Bush 4
Fiorina 3
Paul 3
Christie 2
Huckabee 2
Kasich 1

 

[Slayven]

Man those folks that signed up to be polled must be pissed, seems like they are getting polled ever 4 seconds

 

[KHarvey16]

Who to believe...

Perfect example of why this primary polling business is largely meaningless.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Perfect example of why this primary polling business is largely meaningless.

Yeah I'm ready for these primaries and caucuses to get underway. Next month I believe they start

 

[Blader]

Does Iowa really even matter though? Seems like its recently been the most hardcore conservative, especially on social issues, like Huckabee or Santorum that win there and then amount to nothing.

You're right that more socially conservative candidates appeal to Iowa voters vs. New Hampshire ones, but there is something to be said about riding momentum out of Iowa into other primaries.

 

[Fenderputty]

Carson's evangelical vote is moving towards the next most evangelical candidate. Cruz has been on record as being against abortion for rape victims. This is what IOWA wants from their GOP.

 

[Slayven]

Carson's evangelical vote is moving towards the next most evangelical candidate. Cruz has been on record as being against abortion for rape victims. This is what IOWA wants from their GOP.

Carson clearly didn't stab enough people