The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.
However, his overall lead has dropped by two points since the last poll in September.
The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.
But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.
Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.
Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.
This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.
While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.
This shows that 77 percent of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends or family members.
Other controversies appear to have had little impact on the election with around 8 in 10 voters saying that the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has changed their position, although Trump got more favourable support 12 percent, than unfavourable 9 percent.
After a first bad tempered debate in the election, 32 percent said Trump won and 18 percent Biden but half thought it was a draw and more than 7 in 10 said it made no difference to how they would vote.
Law and order remains the top issue in the election after riots linked to the black lives matter protests with 32 percent identifying it as their number one concern.
However, the economy is closing the gap with 30 percent putting it top as the effects of coronavirus continue to bite.
Trump outscores Biden on the economy with 70 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back and 60 percent to 40 percent trusting the President over his rival on the issue.
www.express.co.uk
He turned an effective lockdown that people were willingly abiding by into a political and even a religious issue (tried to get things open by Easter so people can go to church in person). He has absolutely held us back from beating COVID and we will move rapidly towards that goal the moment he hands the reins over to someone else.
