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New Democracy Institute poll had Trump beating Biden 46% vs. 45%.

Digital Gex

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The monthly Democracy Institute Sunday Express poll for the Presidential election shows that Mr Trump is still on course for victory with 46 percent of the popular support compared to his Democrat rival Joe Biden’s 45 percent.

However, his overall lead has dropped by two points since the last poll in September.

The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.

But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.

Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.

Crucially, Mr Trump’s lead in key swing states including Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remains at 4 percent by 47 percent 43 percent.

This gives a projected Electoral College split of 320 to Trump and 218 to Biden.

While other polls have Biden ahead, the Democracy Institute, which correctly predicted Brexit and Trump’s win in 2016, only considers people who identify as “likely voters” rather than all registered voters and also asks about the so called shy vote.

This shows that 77 percent of Trump supporters would not admit it to friends or family members.

Other controversies appear to have had little impact on the election with around 8 in 10 voters saying that the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court has changed their position, although Trump got more favourable support 12 percent, than unfavourable 9 percent.

After a first bad tempered debate in the election, 32 percent said Trump won and 18 percent Biden but half thought it was a draw and more than 7 in 10 said it made no difference to how they would vote.

Law and order remains the top issue in the election after riots linked to the black lives matter protests with 32 percent identifying it as their number one concern.

However, the economy is closing the gap with 30 percent putting it top as the effects of coronavirus continue to bite.

Trump outscores Biden on the economy with 70 percent thinking that the economy is bouncing back and 60 percent to 40 percent trusting the President over his rival on the issue.

Poll results

National Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 46%
  • Biden (Democrat) = 45%
  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 3%
  • Hawkins (Green) = 1%
  • Undecided = 5%


  • White voters: Trump = 52% Biden = 45%
  • Black: Trump 18% Biden = 78%
  • Hispanic: Trump 40% Biden = 50%
Battleground States – Popular Vote

Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

  • Trump (Republican) = 47%
  • Biden (Democrat) = 43%
  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 4%
  • Hawkins (Green) = 1%
  • Undecided = 5%
Florida – Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 48%
  • Biden (Democrat) = 44%
  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%
  • Hawkins (Green) = 1%
  • Undecided = 5%
Minnesota – Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 46%
  • Biden (Democrat) = 44%
  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 2%
  • Hawkins (Green) = 2%
  • Undecided = 6%
New Hampshire – Popular Vote

  • Trump (Republican) = 45%
  • Biden (Democrat) = 43%
  • Jorgensen (Libertarian) = 5%
  • Hawkins (Green) = 2%
  • Undecided = 5%

The national poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The national party identification turnout model is: Democrats = 37 percent; Republicans = 35 percent; and Independents = 28 percent.

Apparently this poll was correct in 2016, and while it is more balanced than other polls it's still slightly slanted toward Democrats but Trumps still pulls out a win. Take it as you will. 77% of Trump voters being shy is pretty significant imo.
 

SF Kosmo

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Weighted average of polls had Trump almost 8 points behind. Let's not sugar coat.

That said Trump could lose by 2-3 points and probably hold on thanks to EC advantage, though that advantage is not as strong as it was with Hillary thanks to Biden's relative strength in the rust belt where Hillary shit the bed.
 
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Petey-o

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SF Kosmo

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I don't know why we keep talking about national polls after 2016 and especially given the 2020 climate.
Weren't the national polls accurate in 2016? They showed Trump losing by like 3 points and he did.

It was the state polls (or lack thereof) that were the problem and didn't show how close certain states were.

And also the commentary on the polls, which were "overconfident" bordering on retarded.
 
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oagboghi2

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Weighted average of polls had Trump almost 8 points behind. Let's not sugar coat.

That said Trump could lose by 2-3 points and probably hold on thanks to EC advantage, though that advantage is not as strong as it was with Hillary thanks to Biden's relative strength in the rust belt where Hillary shit the bed.
Oh so now we care about weighted polls? 🙄🤣
 

ChainedMaster

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I don't know why we keep talking about national polls after 2016 and especially given the 2020 climate.

National polls at the same only had Hilary lead by one point right? Biden leads by several in most polls. They are definitely more relevant the wider the gap.
 
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SF Kosmo

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Oh so now we care about weighted polls? 🙄🤣
You don't know what weighted average means do you?

They aren't "weighted polls", it's an average of polls based on a statistical model that factors the accuracy and bias of a given pollster over time by comparing the poll to the result, such that polls that have been historically accurate have a bigger influence on the average.
 
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oagboghi2

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You don't know what weighted average means do you?

They aren't "weighted polls", it's an average of polls based on a statistical model that corrects for the accuracy and bias of a given pollster over time by comparing the poll to the result, such that polls that have been historically accurate are counted more.
Polls that have an uneven split of voters between democrats and republicans. A split that routinely give dems an advantage.

But of course you won't mention that. Those polls you trust. 🙄

And also the commentary on the polls, which were "overconfident" bordering on retarded.
overconfident to a fault....like the commentary in this thread from the Biden supporters? 🤣
 
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Joe T.

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If the Democrats get their way we'll get to find out how accurate the polls were in... January, if we're lucky. Pelosi's trying to play the long game, the very long game:

 

Zefah

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Weren't the national polls accurate in 2016? They showed Trump losing by like 3 points and he did.

It was the state polls (or lack thereof) that were the problem and didn't show how close certain states were.

And also the commentary on the polls, which were "overconfident" bordering on retarded.

Yeah, I phrased that really badly. I just meant that they don't mean much when it comes to electing the president.
 

Zefah

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Sure.

Frankly, we should be directing our cycles towards whether Trump makes it to 11/3. I'm sincerely concerned.

I doubt that, unless you are using "concern" to mean "hoping beyond hope that he dies."
 
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SF Kosmo

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Polls that have an uneven split of voters between democrats and republicans. A split that routinely give dems an advantage.
I am trying to explain to you that a "weighted average of all polls" and a "weighted poll" are not the same thing.

Learn to read. You are talking about something completely different.

But of course you won't mention that. Those polls you trust. 🙄
What poll are you talking about? I am talking about an average of polls, again. Here is a detailed explanation of the methodology for you to not read or comprehend.

 

mashoutposse

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I doubt that, unless you are using "concern" to mean "hoping beyond hope that he dies."

I don't want him to die. Not even close. We're past the point where he can step out of the hospital and credibly claim it was no big deal. My hope is that his experience wakes up him and his supporters so we can finally collectively take the proper steps to beat this thing.

He has held this country back from beating COVID. This can be a turning point for him and for all of us.
 
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oagboghi2

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I am trying to explain to you that a "weighted average of all polls" and a "weighted poll" are not the same thing.

Learn to read. You are talking about something completely different.
And I'm trying to explain to you that the distinction is pointless in this thread. Why you felt the need to bring it up in relation to one poll reveals a lot.

Your immediate and only response Is to bring up an average of earlier polls that are weighted in dems favor. Please fuck off.

This shit right here is why people dig into your every word. Because you are constantly full of shit. What does 538 have to do with this singular poll?
What poll are you talking about? I am talking about an average of polls, again. Here is a detailed explanation of the methodology for you to not read or comprehend.

I'm talking about this poll. Other polls are irrelevant to what this poll is signalling.

The major takeaway here is that Trump apparently has signs of seeing a bump due to this news. Your response to that is saying that other older polls that are weighted and irrelant to what happened this week exist. Well no fucking shit you sperg 🤣
 
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Zefah

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I don't want him to die. Not even close. We're past the point where he can step out of the hospital and credibly claim it was no big deal. My hope is that his experience wakes up him and his supporters so we can finally collectively take the proper steps to beat this thing.

He has held this country back from beating COVID. This can be a turning point for him and for all of us.

I disagree that he held the country back. Mistakes were certainly made, but largely letting state governors decide how they wanted to implement CDC recommendations was the right call given our country's structure.

This is America. We were never going to have authoritarian measures like in China or even South Korea. I'm sorry, but you're just not going to get people in this country to buy into widespread tracking apps and forced quarantines.
 

oagboghi2

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I don't want him to die. Not even close. We're past the point where he can step out of the hospital and credibly claim it was no big deal. My hope is that his experience wakes up him and his supporters so we can finally collectively take the proper steps to beat this thing.

He has held this country back from beating COVID. This can be a turning point for him and for all of us.
Of fuck off. You people are insane. Truly insane

You're right, this country hasn't done a single thing in response to covid. Maybe now after mass testing, a nationwide lockdown and restrictions running in all 50 states, now we will actually try 🙄🤣
 

Zefah

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Of fuck off. You people are insane. Truly insane

You're right, this country hasn't done a single thing in response to covid. Maybe now after mass testing, a nationwide lockdown and restrictions running in all 50 states, now we will actually try 🙄🤣

Imagine if Trump had actually tried to implement authoritarian measures in the name of combatting COVID back in mid-to-late February right after the failed impeachment trial. We'd be living in a very different world, where the Left would be the ones in the streets protesting lockdowns.
 

oagboghi2

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Imagine if Trump had actually tried to implement authoritarian measures in the name of combatting COVID back in mid-to-late February right after the failed impeachment trial. We'd be living in a very different world, where the Left would be the ones in the streets protesting lockdowns.

They would be calling him Hitler.....again

and I gurantee they would start marching and protesting and eventually looting.
 
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SF Kosmo

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And I'm trying to explain to you that the distinction is pointless in this thread. Why you felt the need to bring it up in relation to one poll reveals a lot.
It reveals that cherry picking a single outlier poll that suits your narrative is both easy and meaningless.

Your immediate and only response Is to bring up an average of earlier polls that are weighted in dems favor.
It is not weighted in Dems favor. Again, I gave you a detailed explanation of the methodology, it is weighted in favor of larger polls, whose results have more closely aligned with the outcomes of elections.

This shit right here is why people dig into your every word. Because you are constantly full of shit. What does 538 have to do with this singular poll?
Because it is a result based on more information as opposed to less?

I'm talking about this poll. Other polls are irrelevant to what this poll is signalling.
They're other current polls on the exact same question that contradict the result. How is that not relevant?

The major takeaway here is that Trump apparently has signs of seeing a bump due to this news. Your response to that is saying that other older polls that are weighted and irrelant to what happened this week exist. Well no fucking shit you sperg 🤣
Who said anything about older polls? I was talking about the current results which have Biden up by 8 points.

Here are today's polls:
 
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decisions

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Of fuck off. You people are insane. Truly insane

You're right, this country hasn't done a single thing in response to covid. Maybe now after mass testing, a nationwide lockdown and restrictions running in all 50 states, now we will actually try 🙄🤣

Yes exactly. Especially considering all you have to do is look at the countries who implemented these things and you will see that they ended the pandemic easily. Oh wait the only countries who actually aren't still in a pandemic are those who closed their borders entirely, and the only thing Trump did in this vein was criticized heavily by Democrats.
 
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mashoutposse

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I disagree that he held the country back. Mistakes were certainly made, but largely letting state governors decide how they wanted to implement CDC recommendations was the right call given our country's structure.

This is America. We were never going to have authoritarian measures like in China or even South Korea. I'm sorry, but you're just not going to get people in this country to buy into widespread tracking apps and forced quarantines.

The NBA made the first real move - paused the season. Unprecedented. The Olympics, cancelled. TV show and movie production, paused. All willingly. Tom Hanks gets it and people really sit up and take notice. The political capital was there and he actively threw it away because he wanted us open before we were ready for some reason.
 

Zefah

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The NBA made the first real move - paused the season. Unprecedented. The Olympics, cancelled. TV show and movie production, paused. All willingly. Tom Hanks gets it and people really sit up and take notice. The political capital was there and he actively threw it away because he wanted us open before we were ready for some reason.

I would have been massively opposed to the President of the United States locking down the entire country through executive order. I'm sure it would have been challenged and probably defeated in the courts, too. I'm glad he didn't cash in "political capital" to implement authoritarian measures. For better or worse, that's not what this country is about.
 

oagboghi2

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It reveals that cherry picking a single outlier poll that suits your narrative is both easy and meaningless.
But showing old polls are relevant how?

It is not weighted in Dems favor. Again, I gave you a detailed explanation of the methodology, it is weighted in favor of larger, whose results have more closely aligned with the outcomes of elections.
except that they are. Many of of the polls you listed weigh more dems than they do reps.


They're other current polls on the exact same question that contradict the result. How is that not relevant?
*Sigh*
The poll was completed after the news broke that President Trump and his wife Melania have been infected by Covid-19.

But 68 percent said the illness would not affect their vote while 19 percent said they were “more likely” to support Trump and only 13 percent “less likely”.

Almost two thirds said they felt sympathy and concern for the President while 38 percent said him getting the disease was “karma” in an indication of the current divisive nature of US politics.

Who said anything about older polls?

Here are today's polls:
You mean polls that ran from Sept 20 might not show a bump based off an event that happened a day ago. No shit.

None of these polls are questioning how the covid situation affected voters. They are irrelevant to the poll this thread is about.

no one is saying Trump flipped the polls 10 points in one day
 
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oagboghi2

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The NBA made the first real move - paused the season. Unprecedented. The Olympics, cancelled. TV show and movie production, paused. All willingly. Tom Hanks gets it and people really sit up and take notice. The political capital was there and he actively threw it away because he wanted us open before we were ready for some reason.
This might be the dumbest thing I've never heard.

"Well the NBA cancelled some games, and the Olympics cancelled an event that hadn't started. Clearly the president should have shut down the economy on a dime. Totally the same thing."

Jesus Christ liberals are just retarded.....🤣
 

mashoutposse

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I would have been massively opposed to the President of the United States locking down the entire country through executive order. I'm sure it would have been challenged and probably defeated in the courts, too. I'm glad he didn't cash in "political capital" to implement authoritarian measures. For better or worse, that's not what this country is about.

Who said anything about imposing a lockdown through executive order? How about simply not doing things like this?


That is simply idiotic and irresponsible.
 

SF Kosmo

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But showing old polls are relevant how?
I just posted every poll result published today.

Except that they are. Many of of the polls you listed weigh more dems than they do reps.
Yeah? You looked into their methodologies?

You mean polls that ran from Sept 20 might not show a bump based off an event that happened a day ago. No shit.
Like I said those are all the latest polls. Some are date from this weekend, some ran for longer. All of them show Biden up significantly, and averaged together there is no visible bump.

None of these polls are questioning how the covid situation affected voters. They are irrelevant to the poll this thread is about.

no one is saying Trump flipped the polls 10 points in one day
Ok, I am going to try to help you out here, because I feel like you need a win or you're just gonna keep digging.

Trump has actually gotten a small but significant bump in approval rating. Both since his diagnosis, and also for the last 2 months or so.

But, perhaps counterintuitively, this doesn't seem to translate to a shift in voting choice. And in fact they've moved in slightly opposite directions lately.

This seems to suggest that people feel empathy for him, but not necessarily in a way that influences their voting preference.
 
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Zefah

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Who said anything about imposing a lockdown through executive order? How about simply not doing things like this?


That is simply idiotic and irresponsible.

Really? The Michigan Supreme Court just ruled Whitmer's COVID-19-related executive measures as unconstitutional. I disagree that following the law and resisting executive overreach is "idiotic and irresponsible."
 
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mashoutposse

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Really? The Michigan Supreme Court just ruled Whitmer's COVID-19-related executive measures as unconstitutional. I disagree that following the law and resisting executive overreach is "idiotic and irresponsible."

The guy has been schizophrenic in his approach to letting states handle the crisis. On one hand, he says the President's authority over the states is "total"; on the other, he dismantles the federal response and leaves everything to the states. Then, he uses his position to sabotage the efforts of governors he doesn't like. 🤦‍♂️ He turned an effective lockdown that people were willingly abiding by into a political and even a religious issue (tried to get things open by Easter so people can go to church in person). He has absolutely held us back from beating COVID and we will move rapidly towards that goal the moment he hands the reins over to someone else.
 

Kreen101

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Apparently this poll was correct in 2016, and while it is more balanced than other polls it's still slightly slanted toward Democrats but Trumps still pulls out a win. Take it as you will. 77% of Trump voters being shy is pretty significant imo.

Sadly, this poll, as well as Rasmussen and Zogby, is not really trustworthy. Real Clear Politics doesn't even use it, and neither does Nate Silver. When legitimate polls start showing change, then it'll mean something.
 

betrayal

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Quoting to revisit in a month from now!

But he is not wrong with this statement.

4 years of one-sided reporting in all kinds of media (TV, print media, social media, advertising, ...) does something to people, no matter what it is about and what you believe. This is a well-known fact.

Just think about how widespread in the U.S., but also around the world, people believe that Trump is a racist, even though he has never done anything politically wrong. Anyone who says "Trump is a racist" will not be able to answer the simple question "Why?". That is the Illusory Truth Effect in action.

'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_truth_effect
 
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Zefah

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But he is not wrong with this statement.

4 years of one-sided reporting in all kinds of media (TV, print media, social media, advertising, ...) does something to people, no matter what it is about and what you believe. This is a well-known fact.

Just think about how widespread in the U.S., but also around the world, people believe that Trump is a racist, even though he has never done anything politically wrong. Anyone who says "Trump is a racist" will not be able to answer the simple question "Why?". That is the Illusory Truth Effect in action.

'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_truth_effect

Perhaps. In my personal life, including myself, I've seen the opposite effect. I think the overwhelmingly one-sided nature and constant screeching about minor things in the media has woken a lot of people up to their bullshit. While that is just anecdotal, I do believe that most polls show trust in media has declined quite a bit since 2016 and is in a downward trend among just about all categories of people.
 
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Zefah

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Sadly, this poll, as well as Rasmussen and Zogby, is not really trustworthy. Real Clear Politics doesn't even use it, and neither does Nate Silver. When legitimate polls start showing change, then it'll mean something.

Maybe they should have.


 
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Zefah

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The guy has been schizophrenic in his approach to letting states handle the crisis. On one hand, he says the President's authority over the states is "total"; on the other, he dismantles the federal response and leaves everything to the states. Then, he uses his position to sabotage the efforts of governors he doesn't like. 🤦‍♂️ He turned an effective lockdown that people were willingly abiding by into a political and even a religious issue (tried to get things open by Easter so people can go to church in person). He has absolutely held us back from beating COVID and we will move rapidly towards that goal the moment he hands the reins over to someone else.

Schizophrenic? Kind of like recommending against masks and then saying they're absolutely essential, right?

Federal support of individual states could have been better, but saying they sabotaged states they did not like is not fair at all. New York and California got a lot of help early on and both governors (at the time) expressed their gratitude.

He's time and time again acted in favor of individual liberty, which is something that I will not condemn. It hasn't been perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but hindsight is 20/20. I doubt any other president would have done all that much better given the circumstances unless they significantly restricted people's freedoms, which would have introduced a much larger set of problems.

You're right that we'll move rapidly towards that goal if Biden wins, because we'll have new goalposts and a fawning media who will happily paint a rosy picture regardless of what's actually going on.
 

Bolivar687

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The guy has been schizophrenic in his approach to letting states handle the crisis. On one hand, he says the President's authority over the states is "total"; on the other, he dismantles the federal response and leaves everything to the states. Then, he uses his position to sabotage the efforts of governors he doesn't like. 🤦‍♂️ He turned an effective lockdown that people were willingly abiding by into a political and even a religious issue (tried to get things open by Easter so people can go to church in person). He has absolutely held us back from beating COVID and we will move rapidly towards that goal the moment he hands the reins over to someone else.

Newsome, Cuomo, and Murphy are all on tape praising federal assistance to the states.

The lockdowns are indeed religious issues when the cops are told to stand down to riots but to lock up anyone who goes to mass.
 

mashoutposse

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Schizophrenic? Kind of like recommending against masks and then saying they're absolutely essential, right?

Federal support of individual states could have been better, but saying they sabotaged states they did not like is not fair at all. New York and California got a lot of help early on and both governors (at the time) expressed their gratitude.

He's time and time again acted in favor of individual liberty, which is something that I will not condemn. It hasn't been perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but hindsight is 20/20. I doubt any other president would have done all that much better given the circumstances unless they significantly restricted people's freedoms, which would have introduced a much larger set of problems.

You're right that we'll move rapidly towards that goal if Biden wins, because we'll have new goalposts and a fawning media who will happily paint a rosy picture regardless of what's actually going on.

More like the federal response at one point seemed to be driven by Trump's changing and unpredictable whims. Sometimes, he wanted you to be grateful to him. Other times, he wanted to just take his ball and go home, since it belonged to the federal government and not the states. Still others, he got mad at governors and made their jobs harder. He acted like a guy who wanted what he wanted and was frustrated that he couldn't just order that it be so.

We had 20/20 vision at the time. Even here, we had a thread very early on and it's clear that there was cause for concern:


That's January.

The President showing less concern than random people on an online forum is a big fail. Of course, we now know that it was on purpose and it never mattered what information or advice he was given.
 
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Zefah

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We had 20/20 vision at the time. Even here, we had a thread very early on and it's clear that there was cause for concern:

Yeah, I've been a regular poster in that thread since basically the beginning. Very few people in this country really took it seriously until the nursing home outbreak near Seattle. It's why Trump was condemned by the Left for restricting travel to China.
 

belmarduk

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Weighted average of polls had Trump almost 8 points behind. Let's not sugar coat.

That said Trump could lose by 2-3 points and probably hold on thanks to EC advantage, though that advantage is not as strong as it was with Hillary thanks to Biden's relative strength in the rust belt where Hillary shit the bed.

Definitely. Folks don't hate Biden the way they hate Clinton. It also helps that he's nowhere near scumbag Anthony Weiner sending dick pics to an underage girl.
 

oagboghi2

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Who said anything about imposing a lockdown through executive order? How about simply not doing things like this?


That is simply idiotic and irresponsible.
🤣🤣 So now you are against the michigan supreme court. Let me guess, they also aren't taking covid seriously, right?
 

Zefah

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Definitely. Folks don't hate Biden the way they hate Clinton. It also helps that he's nowhere near scumbag Anthony Weiner sending dick pics to an underage girl.

I do wonder if that's not counterbalanced by people's desire and enthusiasm to see the historic election of the first female president. I'm sure that's why he was determined to pick a female VP, to try and retain some of that, but it seems pretty clear that the excitement is just not there compared to 2016. It's really going to come down to just how many people really hate Trump.
 

oagboghi2

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I just posted every poll result published today.
That are all tracking times differently than the poll in this thread. Most notably, the polls you listed wouldn't have reflected any bump he got this week.

Hence why they are irrelevant to the OP's poll
Yeah? You looked into their methodologies?
have you? Show me the ratio of voters in those polls


Ok, I am going to try to help you out here, because I feel like you need a win or you're just gonna keep digging.

Trump has actually gotten a small but significant bump in approval rating. Both since his diagnosis, and also for the last 2 months or so.

But, perhaps counterintuitively, this doesn't seem to translate to a shift in voting choice. And in fact they've moved in slightly opposite directions lately.

This seems to suggest that people feel empathy for him, but not necessarily in a way that influences their voting preference.
And the polls you listed wouldn't show a bump, because they are old. They ended before he was at communicating at walter reed at best. Some of them before his diagnosis was even reported.

And what you showed were just numbers. Not the details of what voters were saying.

As I said repeatedly, the biggest news from this poll is the signs of a early bump. The polls you cited wouldn't show a bump, real or imagined. Hence their irrelevancy to this thread. Again
 
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Perhaps. In my personal life, including myself, I've seen the opposite effect. I think the overwhelmingly one-sided nature and constant screeching about minor things in the media has woken a lot of people up to their bullshit. While that is just anecdotal, I do believe that most polls show trust in media has declined quite a bit since 2016 and is in a downward trend among just about all categories of people.

But that is exactly the tragedy. Of course people trust the media less, but still this constant bombardment of a certain "reality" unconsciously influences people because the vast majority of people don't bother to question things (Why? How?) or waste extra time to get a clear picture. So they don't trust the media, but for years they only know one representation of Trump and very often something gets stuck.

If you look at 90% of the polls in 2016 and compare them to 2020, Trump should lose. In 2016, Clinton was ahead by an average of 1 - 5% in almost all polls. In 2020 Biden leads on average with 1 - 12% in almost all polls.


The only effect that can have a big impact is that people don't dare to speak out for Trump openly, but will then vote for him. But you can't necessarily rely on that, because most polls are anonymous, which actually rules out this effect for the most part.