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New Democracy Institute poll had Trump beating Biden 46% vs. 45%.

LoV

Banned
Jan 8, 2015
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The media and social media websites and their bots are trying their hardest to make him a one term president. If Trump manages to get through this, then he is undoubtedly the GOAT. From outside looking it, it looks like he has a one in a million chance with everyone against him. Absolutely disgusting.
 

Woo-Fu

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Jan 2, 2007
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But you can't necessarily rely on that, because most polls are anonymous, which actually rules out this effect for the most part.
Only when people believe that other people can and will secure their anonymity. You'd have to be pretty gullible to comfortably believe that in today's world.
 
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Zefah

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Jan 7, 2007
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because most polls are anonymous, which actually rules out this effect for the most part.

Does it? I suppose we’ll find out soon, but I certainly know I wouldn’t tell the truth to a pollster or probably even talk to one.
 

SF Kosmo

...please disperse...
Jul 7, 2020
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That are all tracking times differently than the poll in this thread. Most notably, the polls you listed wouldn't have reflected any bump he got this week.
All of the polls on the list I posted are the same time frame or later except the USC Dornslife one. You're literally just making shit up that you hope might be true without actually bothering to check.

have you? Show me the ratio of voters in those polls
Yes. Any of the polls on that list -- credible scientific polls of the sort tracked by fivethirtyeight -- use demographic quotas to ensure that the respondents are roughly representative of the population. They do this for political affiliation, gender, race, education, etc. Again you are just making up imaginary problems with the polls and hoping no one calls you out.

And the polls you listed wouldn't show a bump, because they are old. They ended before he was at communicating at walter reed at best. Some of them before his diagnosis was even reported.
The poll in the OP ran from Sept 30 to Oct 2. All the polls on my list except one ran from that same time or newer. This objection makes zero sense.

And what you showed were just numbers. Not the details of what voters were saying.
The other polls track other questions as well. It's true I didn't get into other questions (well I did mention job approval) but it feels like you are trying to pivot away from the pressing issue of who people will vote for.

As I said repeatedly, the biggest news from this poll is the signs of a early bump.
And as I said, there are major reasons to doubt that, as more credible pollsters have showed the opposite.

The poll in the OP is dumpster tier. Although they "accurately" reported a Trump win in 2016, they predicted him winning the popular vote by 5 points instead of losing it by two, which means they were off by seven fucking points. There's absolutely no reason to think this poll is more meaningful than the aggregate of other larger, better, more methodologically sound polls, which are just as recent.

You are just so determined to fight me on shit just because it's me posting, and you are picking the wrong battles. Wait for me to say something that's actually wrong or dumb, I am sure I will sooner than later, but this is a losing battle, man.
 
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