- Dec 29, 2020
How they measured:
Georgia does not have voters register by party. To examine the likely partisanship of those who did and did not vote, we examined the smallest geographic unit that reports election results: the precinct. We looked at each of Georgia’s 2,656 precincts’ November and January results, examining what proportion of the precinct’s registered voters cast a ballot in each election. To measure each precinct’s attitudes toward Trump, we looked at the proportion of its ballots cast for Trump and other Republican candidates in November.
Runoff turnout was 89.6 percent of November’s showing, with over 4.4 million Georgians casting ballots.
Black turnout was 91.8 percent of that in November; White turnout was lower, at 89.5 percent of the November total. The share of voters that were Black in the runoff thus increased to 30.7 percent. If Black voters had shown up in roughly the same proportions as they had in the 2018 runoffs, Ossoff’s 55,000 vote victory would have been a roughly 30,000 vote loss; the Warnock-Loeffler race would likely have been mired in a controversial recount; and Republicans would control the Senate.
For example, in precincts where Trump received 75 percent of the November vote, turnout dropped 8.3 percentage points from the general election to the runoff. Precincts where Trump received 25 percent of the vote showed a drop of only 5.9 percentage points from November to January.
More info within, but it really does suggest that Trumps unwillingness to accept the results until the final hour really caused Trump Supporters to stay home for the runoff.
What do you guys think?