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New Georgia runoffs data finds that more Black voters than usual came out. Trump voters stayed home.

OnionSnake

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How they measured:
Georgia does not have voters register by party. To examine the likely partisanship of those who did and did not vote, we examined the smallest geographic unit that reports election results: the precinct. We looked at each of Georgia’s 2,656 precincts’ November and January results, examining what proportion of the precinct’s registered voters cast a ballot in each election. To measure each precinct’s attitudes toward Trump, we looked at the proportion of its ballots cast for Trump and other Republican candidates in November.

Results:

Runoff turnout was 89.6 percent of November’s showing, with over 4.4 million Georgians casting ballots.

Black turnout was 91.8 percent of that in November; White turnout was lower, at 89.5 percent of the November total. The share of voters that were Black in the runoff thus increased to 30.7 percent. If Black voters had shown up in roughly the same proportions as they had in the 2018 runoffs, Ossoff’s 55,000 vote victory would have been a roughly 30,000 vote loss; the Warnock-Loeffler race would likely have been mired in a controversial recount; and Republicans would control the Senate.

For example, in precincts where Trump received 75 percent of the November vote, turnout dropped 8.3 percentage points from the general election to the runoff. Precincts where Trump received 25 percent of the vote showed a drop of only 5.9 percentage points from November to January.

More info within, but it really does suggest that Trumps unwillingness to accept the results until the final hour really caused Trump Supporters to stay home for the runoff.

What do you guys think?
 

Newly Vacant

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Jul 30, 2013
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Michigan
ehuntington.org

How they measured:


Results:



More info within, but it really does suggest that Trumps unwillingness to accept the results until the final hour really caused Trump Supporters to stay home for the runoff.

What do you guys think?
Like it or not, Trump is the party. When he's not on the ticket, Republicans tend to lose. It also doesn't help that Republicans no longer trust elections.
 

epicnemesis

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I think it has more to do with republicans in Georgia being disgusted with Mitch McConnell’s actions over the 2 month proceeding the runoff. That along with a fundamental lack of faith that there are systems in place to have a fair election in the first place.

I suppose you could blame that second part on Trump, but I tend to not blame the whistleblower.
 
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OnionSnake

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Like it or not, Trump is the party. When he's not on the ticket, Republicans tend to lose. It also doesn't help that Republicans no longer trust elections.
I think it has more to do with republicans in Georgia being disgusted with Mitch McConnell’s actions over the 2 month proceeding the runoff. That along with a fundamental lack of faith that there are systems in place to have a fair election in the first place.

I suppose you could blame that second part on Trump, but I tend to not blame the whistleblower.

i think you both also hit on important points, I am curious as to the lack of trump on the ticket and how that affects 2022. Similarly if dems don’t use their current power to actually pass stimulus will that affect the 2022 the same way mitchs (lack of) efforts did?

there’s also that rumored talk of trump forming his own splinter party, though I think the McCarthy meeting puts a kibosh on that idea for now
 

Petey-o

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It'll be really interesting to see what the 2022 midterms are going to be like. A significant amount of Trump cultists will likely stay home, but the party in power almost always plays defense.
 

OnionSnake

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It'll be really interesting to see what the 2022 midterms are going to be like. A significant amount of Trump cultists will likely stay home, but the party in power almost always plays defense.
Yeah, it’s definitely not looking great because of historic reasons but 2020 proved that those historical trends only exist until they don’t (all those bellweather counties Biden lost despite slapping trump down).

curious to see what they can do in 2 years to make the case for 2 more.

we will also see some pretty bad races for the republicans in the senate if memory serves correctly
 
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epicnemesis

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i think you both also hit on important points, I am curious as to the lack of trump on the ticket and how that affects 2022. Similarly if dems don’t use their current power to actually pass stimulus will that affect the 2022 the same way mitchs (lack of) efforts did?

there’s also that rumored talk of trump forming his own splinter party, though I think the McCarthy meeting puts a kibosh on that idea for now
The Republican’s fate is in their hands. I maintain that people rallied around trump DESPITE trump. It was 100% his platform, he just had the charisma to get the message out there. If Republicans become the populist party they win running away with it in 2022, with or without trump on the ticket. Cruz gets this, McConnell doesn’t.

Democrats still think people in America care about pronouns and unconscious bias and all that shit. They don’t care. They care about feeding their family, and the votes will flow to whatever party makes it easy to do that. SJW shit is a luxury for the rich to worry about. It’s why the Dems got their ass handed to them on Nov 3rd in the house (and in the senate but for the runoff and Mitch)
 

OnionSnake

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The Republican’s fate is in their hands. I maintain that people rallied around trump DESPITE trump. It was 100% his platform, he just had the charisma to get the message out there. If Republicans become the populist party they win running away with it in 2022, with or without trump on the ticket. Cruz gets this, McConnell doesn’t.

Democrats still think people in America care about pronouns and unconscious bias and all that shit. They don’t care. They care about feeding their family, and the votes will flow to whatever party makes it easy to do that. SJW shit is a luxury for the rich to worry about. It’s why the Dems got their ass handed to them on Nov 3rd in the house (and in the senate but for the runoff and Mitch)
Do people like Cruz though? In TX he only won by 2.6% which would be a worrying sign for me given Betos overall wet blanket demeanor. Not sure he is the right one to rally around, and Hawley isn’t much better with his red hot ties to the insurrection attempt. Curious to see who emerges as the GOP nominee in 2024 for sure.
 

QuantumZebra

Member
Dec 5, 2013
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Atlanta, GA

How they measured:


Results:



More info within, but it really does suggest that Trumps unwillingness to accept the results until the final hour really caused Trump Supporters to stay home for the runoff.

What do you guys think?

I was telling people this left and right.

Democrats were fired up to vote in the runoffs. Republicans looked like a funeral procession.

My local gun shop was doom and gloom leading up to the runoffs (electrion fraud, votes don't matter, fuck em all, etc).
 

OnionSnake

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I was telling people this left and right.

Democrats were fired up to vote in the runoffs. Republicans looked like a funeral procession.

My local gun shop was doom and gloom leading up to the runoffs (electrion fraud, votes don't matter, fuck em all, etc).
Are you in Georgia? Assuming yes but don’t answer if you don’t want to. Just an interesting insight into right wing culture if so
 
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ManofOne

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Well trump is to blame here to be honest. Republicans didn’t come out bc they felt cheated. I think some of them felt their vote didn’t mattered.

Anyway fuck WaPo
 
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epicnemesis

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Do people like Cruz though? In TX he only won by 2.6% which would be a worrying sign for me given Betos overall wet blanket demeanor. Not sure he is the right one to rally around, and Hawley isn’t much better with his red hot ties to the insurrection attempt. Curious to see who emerges as the GOP nominee in 2024 for sure.
Based Beard Cruz has turned the once most punchable man in politics into a legitimate voice. Regardless of whether he is the guy, he is one of the loudest populist spokesman in DC post trump. It’s up to him and a few others to steer the GOP to the winning strategy of being for the little guy, now that Democrats have aligned with the 1%
 
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OnionSnake

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Based Beard Cruz has turned the once most punchable man in politics into a legitimate voice. Regardless of whether he is the guy, he is one of the loudest populist spokesman in DC post trump. It’s up to him and a few others to steer the GOP to the winning strategy of being for the little guy, now that Democrats have aligned with the 1%
Interesting, to me a pivot like that would just highlight someone that flip flops and doesn’t really have a stance but instead will bend with the wind. A fair weather friend as they say, and not someone I would rally behind. But that’s just me
 

Amiga

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the $15 minimum wage and $2K checks made the difference, Trump voters are not traditional republican voters. economic nationalism is the biggest Trump policy. and after trump the democrats are actually closer to that, and will remain so until the whole republican party adopts the Trump platform.
 

epicnemesis

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Interesting, to me a pivot like that would just highlight someone that flip flops and doesn’t really have a stance but instead will bend with the wind. A fair weather friend as they say, and not someone I would rally behind. But that’s just me
Yea that’s my issue with it/him as well. However, another way of looking at it, and he’s said as such: he was voted on by the people of Texas to reflect their needs to the federal government, so he will do what the people ask him to do.

It’s a respectable position if true, and honestly who cares if he is motivated by that genuinely or to self serve and further his career. If the end result is him representing the will of the people that elected him accurately then I have no problem with it.
 
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OnionSnake

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Yea that’s my issue with it/him as well. However, another way of looking at it, and he’s said as such: he was voted on by the people of Texas to reflect their needs to the federal government, so he will do what the people ask him to do.

It’s a respectable position if true, and honestly who cares if he is motivated by that genuinely or to self serve and further his career. If the end result is him representing the will of the people that elected him accurately then I have no problem with it.
Yeah that’s true, I guess that depends on what the will of the people of Texas are though because a vote for Cruz in 2018 isn’t directly a vote for this populism movement after all. You may be against populism but voted for him due to Christian conservative values, or his small government values.
 

QuantumZebra

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Are you in Georgia? Assuming yes but don’t answer if you don’t want to. Just an interesting insight into right wing culture if so

No worries; yes I am. Pretty vocal about my love for the state and I try to give insights into the politics here when I can.

I got shit on in the lead up to the runoffs by some folks here for explaining why I thought the GOP would lose the Senate (mainly due to Trump's fraud claims and the hold-up over the stimulus by Senate GOP pissing off conservatives here).

Normally the GOP would win a GA runoff in a landslide... but I saw the writing on the wall this time.

I live in a very red county and turnout was extremely light. I was in and out in minutes.
Same.

I knew it wouldn't bode well for conservatives.
 
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OnionSnake

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No worries; yes I am. Pretty vocal about my love for the state and I try to give insights into the politics here when I can.

I got shit on in the lead up to the runoffs by some folks here for explaining why I thought the GOP would lose the Senate (mainly due to Trump's fraud claims and the hold-up over the stimulus by Senate GOP pissing off conservatives here).

Normally the GOP would win a GA runoff in a landslide... but I saw the writing on the wall this time.


Same.

I knew it wouldn't bode well for conservatives.
Do you think this was a temporary win, IE warnock losing in the 2022 race or are things shifting in the Atlanta metro enough that they can carry the state like other purple states?
 
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Spokker

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Yeah, Trump had a decent term until the end. He should have told people to trust the vote by mail system, but then use the various tools to verify their vote was counted. Trust but verify.
 
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QuantumZebra

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Do you think this was a temporary win, IE warnock losing in the 2022 race or are things shifting in the Atlanta metro enough that they can carry the state like other purple states?

If Republicans keep shooting themselves in the foot and Democrats keep capitalizing on it then GA will turn purple.

I personally think we'll end up more like Ohio than say, Virginia... but who knows.
 
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Woo-Fu

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This is old news.

Some of Trump's "stolen election" proxies were telling Georgia Republicans to not bother voting on another rigged election. That's why the rural Georgia vote didn't come out in force.

 
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