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New Hampshire may be in play for Trump in the 2020 election.

Digital Gex

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But some voters and analysts feel the race in the Granite State is closer than it appears on paper — a belief veteran GOP strategist Mike Dennehy says is reflected in the Trump team’s continued attention here.

Dennehy cited a recent report from those behind the Granite State Poll discussing the “spiral of silence” that keeps some Trump voters from speaking up publicly in support of a candidate viewed as “unpopular.”

Biden led by 12 points in the most recent Granite State Poll in mid-October. But the pollsters analyzed the results and found more than 60% of New Hampshire voters who back Trump said they would not put a bumper sticker on their car or a sign in their yard “out of fear of vandalism.” And 45% said they don’t talk about their support for Trump with friends or co-workers, while 42% said they don’t talk about it with family.


May be a surprise victory in NH this election, especially with Biden barely focusing his attention there. Large crowds wherever Trump goes, a large portion polled were not republicans or didn't vote in 2016, a trend that has showed up in other states and are ignored by the polls, intentionally or not.
 

Mista K

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In 2016 there were Trump signs all over northern NH and not a Hillary sign in sight. Nobody liked her, and she squeaked out a super slim victory. This year there are almost as many Biden signs as Trump signs. Biden's 10 point lead in the NH polls are accurate, he's toast here.
Not entirely true. I spoke with the Republican campaign just the other day, and they said their signs keep getting stolen. Mine was stolen last week. Local newspapers also went TDS.
 
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TaySan

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I don't see it happening from the polls, but Biden doesn't need NH to win anyways.
 

Zefah

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I love spending a few minutes popping back from this forum to ResetEra threads and seeing what gets selectively shared.

Here, we got New Hampshire in play, over there, they got Texas basically guaranteed to turn blue for real this time. Sucks that this country got so damn polarized to where there are basically at least two separate bubbles in which reality is interpreted completely differently. Going to be interesting to see which is true.
 

DeaDPooL_jlp

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I love spending a few minutes popping back from this forum to ResetEra threads and seeing what gets selectively shared.

Here, we got New Hampshire in play, over there, they got Texas basically guaranteed to turn blue for real this time. Sucks that this country got so damn polarized to where there are basically at least two separate bubbles in which reality is interpreted completely differently. Going to be interesting to see which is true.

It's absolutely insane to me. You can convince yourself of anything if you ask enough people. They are again building up this wet dream over there cause they are buying into these polls as if they are the defacto way to gauge an election. But Reeeeetards gonna reeeee.
 
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JORMBO

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I love spending a few minutes popping back from this forum to ResetEra threads and seeing what gets selectively shared.

Here, we got New Hampshire in play, over there, they got Texas basically guaranteed to turn blue for real this time. Sucks that this country got so damn polarized to where there are basically at least two separate bubbles in which reality is interpreted completely differently. Going to be interesting to see which is true.

Yeah it’s hard to make sense of anything anymore. The internet gives everyone a platform to yell their opinion so you can find stuff out there to back whatever you want. People just seek out what they want to hear like “Texas is going blue” even if it makes no sense.

A lot of this reminds me of 2016. We will find out soon if they corrected the mistakes with polling or just created more mistakes.
 

autoduelist

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What isn't in play? Massive rallies everywhere, massive parades.

Unions for Trump, blacks for Trump, Latinos marching for Trump, Jewish parades in NYC, car parades for miles....

I think we are seeing the DNC/media 'woke' crew in the most epic, legendary backfire of all time. They want us to believe their stacked polls rather than our lying eyes.

I have mentioned before, I live in an antifa city. I have seen 3 Biden signs [1 more, yesterday]. I see far more subtle Trump support ['we the people' shirts, american flag hats and masks, etc] every day. I am sure my city will still go Biden, but... zero, and I mean zero, enthusiasm. If I leave the city, American flags, Trump signs, trump trucks.

I don't think anyone knows for sure what is going to happen, but I know what my eyes and ears tell me.
 

sw0mp_d0nk3y

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Not entirely true. I spoke with the Republican campaign just the other day, and they said their signs keep getting stolen. Mine was stolen last week. Local newspapers also went TDS.
Yeah the NH Union Leader endorsed a democrat for President for the first time in 100 years. They also urged everyone to vote split ticket and vote for Republicans down ballot. Sununu is a lock to remain Governor, and Shaheen is a lock in the Senate. Sorry about your sign, seems to be a problem everywhere on both sides. Up here in northern NH we all have guns, so I suspect there is less sign problems. Trump signs are certainly as prominent as they were 4 years ago, some never even came down. My comparison was more to emphasize that Biden is way more popular than Hillary, and Hillary won NH. I believe Trump's support is very solid, but the same numbers as last time. I guess we'll see next week. Highly unlikely NH's 4 electoral votes will matter either way.
 

DeaDPooL_jlp

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You can't just completely ignore polls just because they went your way ONCE. 2020 is nothing like 2016 too.

I have said time and time again I don't trust them regardless, not because of one instance, and I'd say the same thing if every poll said Trump was leading.

Really think about what a poll is and how it's measured. I have been contacted twice to do one and denied both times. You see an article that reads "80% of voters in PA say they will vote for Biden". Then you read in the small print *500 people were asked during first week of October which way they'd be voting come November*.

It's genuinely dumb to take polls as any true way to judge an election. It reminds me of all the bs E3 rumors leading up to the show that people love to buy into. Then E3 happens and people are like "dafuq?!?".
 
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DeaDPooL_jlp

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What isn't in play? Massive rallies everywhere, massive parades.

Unions for Trump, blacks for Trump, Latinos marching for Trump, Jewish parades in NYC, car parades for miles....

I think we are seeing the DNC/media 'woke' crew in the most epic, legendary backfire of all time. They want us to believe their stacked polls rather than our lying eyes.

I have mentioned before, I live in an antifa city. I have seen 3 Biden signs [1 more, yesterday]. I see far more subtle Trump support ['we the people' shirts, american flag hats and masks, etc] every day. I am sure my city will still go Biden, but... zero, and I mean zero, enthusiasm. If I leave the city, American flags, Trump signs, trump trucks.

I don't think anyone knows for sure what is going to happen, but I know what my eyes and ears tell me.

Yes but the scientific totally nonbias polls say Biden is going to win every state so fuck your actual tangible evidence that can be seen with your very own eyes /s
 
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OutRun88

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You can't just completely ignore polls just because they went your way ONCE. 2020 is nothing like 2016 too.
I've got two recommendations for.
1. If you're going to put so much weight into polls, you should really look at the methodology of said polls. A significant percentage of polls don't even share their methodology so you can basically throw those out the windows. The other polls often over or under represent particular groups.
2. Now that you have actually taken the time to look into the methodology of the polls you believe, take a brief stroll down history lane. Here you will find time and time again that poll data given to the public isn't the actual data, or that the polls are simply made up from the get go. The scope of this goes beyond election polls. I suggest reading about US polls and WW2.
 

Kreen101

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What isn't in play? Massive rallies everywhere, massive parades.

Unions for Trump, blacks for Trump, Latinos marching for Trump, Jewish parades in NYC, car parades for miles....


Trump losing the election doesn't mean that nobody likes him or supports him. It means that he lost about 5 % of the supporters he had last time around. That's all that is needed for his 2016 victory to turn into a Biden triumph.
 
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Petey-o

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Was it really only less than 3,000 votes difference in 2016?
More people than that wrote in Bernie!
 

Kreen101

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The Polls were heavily skewed in favor of Clinton back in 2016.

On an average, they pointed to her being around 3 % ahead of Trump, which she was in the end in the popular vote. On an average, polls in 2016 didn't show Clinton being 10 points ahead of Trump, like they do today for Biden.

You guys are just setting yourselves up for an incredible disappointment come voting night. It's ok to hope against hope that Trump will win, it's not impossible. But it's incredibly unlikely.
 

joe_zazen

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you have to remember the democrats are terrorising old people with their covid ads. I am hoping t wins, but if he doesn’t, it is because of that,
 

Kreen101

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I love spending a few minutes popping back from this forum to ResetEra threads and seeing what gets selectively shared.

Here, we got New Hampshire in play, over there, they got Texas basically guaranteed to turn blue for real this time. Sucks that this country got so damn polarized to where there are basically at least two separate bubbles in which reality is interpreted completely differently. Going to be interesting to see which is true.

Texas could absolutely turn blue this election, and remain so from then on. Biden's got a 3-point lead according to the most recent poll. Say thanks to immigration, Republicans...
 
Dec 22, 2019
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On an average, they pointed to her being around 3 % ahead of Trump, which she was in the end in the popular vote. On an average, polls in 2016 didn't show Clinton being 10 points ahead of Trump, like they do today for Biden.

You guys are just setting yourselves up for an incredible disappointment come voting night. It's ok to hope against hope that Trump will win, it's not impossible. But it's incredibly unlikely.

Nope:



Federal elections are won by the electoral college and the 2016/2020 polls for the swing states are identical. You're citing national polls which are largely irrelevant (if Californians are more enthusiastic for Biden than Hillary, who cares?)
 
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Petey-o

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Nope:



Federal elections are won by the electoral college and the 2016/2020 polls for the swing states are identical. You're citing national polls which are largely irrelevant (if Californians are more enthusiastic for Biden than Hillary, who cares?)
I think this still shows that Biden's numbers are a lot more sturdy than Clinton's. She bounced up and down quite in a bit in the months coming up to the election.
 

appaws

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Texas could absolutely turn blue this election, and remain so from then on. Biden's got a 3-point lead according to the most recent poll. Say thanks to immigration, Republicans...

It won't be this year, but it is coming. We can blame the Chamber of Commerce type Republicans along with the Left for engineering the destruction of the American nation.

What I can say though for sure, the American nation will not go quietly. We will have to destroy this monstrosity called the United States, despite the deep emotional connection many members of our nation have for it and its associated symbols. When the left accomplishes its project of turning whites into a minority, the reaction that ensues is going to have them wishing for moderate cucks like Donald Trump.
 

Zefah

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Texas could absolutely turn blue this election, and remain so from then on. Biden's got a 3-point lead according to the most recent poll. Say thanks to immigration, Republicans...

I don't believe it for a moment, but we'll see soon!
 
Jun 26, 2013
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Trump also held a surprise rally in Maine. For him to hold rallies in NH and Maine tells me that his internal polling suggests that both are in play. And he may not be wrong.

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, grabbed 5.1% of Maine's vote (38,105 votes) and 4.1% of NH's vote (30,777 votes). Trump lost to Hillary by margins of about 22K votes and 3K votes, respectively. Johnson's internal polling suggested that 75% of his votes would've otherwise gone to Trump. Jo Jorgensen has not gotten as much attention or enthusiasm and her support for BLM may also push some Libertarian voters away. This is a voterbase Trump can potentially grab and it is plausible that he can considering a significant portion of his rally audiences are unaffiliated or even Democrat.
 

godhandiscen

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CA is actually in play. This is liberal Beverly Hills this weekend:
It would be amazing and I wouldn’t be so surprised. Here in the Bay Area/Silicon Valley the majority of people still back Biden and BLM, but as soon as I go south of San Jose, I start seeing Trump support.
 

autoduelist

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Trump losing the election doesn't mean that nobody likes him or supports him. It means that he lost about 5 % of the supporters he had last time around. That's all that is needed for his 2016 victory to turn into a Biden triumph.

I hated Trump in 2016. My post history will verify. I love him now.

I am not alone.

Never Trumpers like Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro support him.
Blexit is huge.
Walkaway is huge.
Latino support seems to be huge.
The anti-war old left support Trump.
The anti-woke old left support Trump.

Call me crazy, but the type of people who support Trump are not going Dem this year.
 
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Dargor

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And there's there's your problem, I swear you people haven't learned. Polls are USELESS. Get it through that smooth brain of yours.

Man, I dunno how you still think they have a brain, no matter how smooth, after all the shit thats been happening and/or came to light, yet they still support these leftists agendas.
 
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Jun 26, 2013
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I hated Trump in 2016. My post history will verify. I love him now.

I am not alone.

Never Trumpers like Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro support him.
Blexit is huge.
Walkaway is huge.
Latino support seems to be huge.

Call me crazy, but the type of people who support Trump are not going Dem this year.
There's also a higher likelihood that the average Democrat voter will defect to Republican than the average Republican voter defecting to Democrat. Trump's Republican voter approval has improved from 2016, back when the party was far more uncertain.
 

diffusionx

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You can't just completely ignore polls just because they went your way ONCE. 2020 is nothing like 2016 too.

I think in this election you can completely ignore polls.

That doesn't mean Trump is going to win, it means that the structural problems that come with polling, and with using polling to build models like Nate Copper, have finally done the industry in. They don't work anymore. There are too many issues. The media wants and needs these polls because they use them to build a narrative, usually a false one. Polling isn't what it used to be.

And the truth is that polls have failed quite a bit in the past 2 decades, albeit in different ways. They failed in 2000, 2004, and 2016. Hmm, what do all those elections have in common I wonder?
 
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autoduelist

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I think in this election you can completely ignore polls.

That doesn't mean Trump is going to win, it means that the structural problems that come with polling, and with using polling to build models like Nate Copper, have finally done the industry in. They don't work anymore. There are too many issues. The media wants and needs these polls because they use them to build a narrative, usually a false one. Polling isn't what it used to be.

And the truth is that polls have failed quite a bit in the past 2 decades, albeit in different ways. They failed in 2000, 2004, and 2016. Hmm, what do all those elections have in common I wonder?

Yup. We are witnessing in real time that mainstream media is willing to lie and cheat for Biden. We are also witnessing big tech blatantly censor for Biden.

Across the past few years, we've seen everyone from the NYT to the ACLU to NPR to CNN to Teen Vogue to Harvard go woke and throw all integrity out the window.

If all of these institutions were subject to infiltration by woke ideology, why wouldn't polling companies? If NYT will lie to our faces, why wouldn't any other company?

That doesn't mean anything is a given. But anyone who thinks Trump is losing voters is not paying attention.
 

Vicetrailia

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I love spending a few minutes popping back from this forum to ResetEra threads and seeing what gets selectively shared.

Here, we got New Hampshire in play, over there, they got Texas basically guaranteed to turn blue for real this time. Sucks that this country got so damn polarized to where there are basically at least two separate bubbles in which reality is interpreted completely differently. Going to be interesting to see which is true.

Yup. Truth or right or wrong doesn’t matter anymore, it’s only about supporting your team.
 

prag16

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I hated Trump in 2016. My post history will verify. I love him now.

I am not alone.

Never Trumpers like Matt Walsh and Ben Shapiro support him.
Blexit is huge.
Walkaway is huge.
Latino support seems to be huge.
The anti-war old left support Trump.
The anti-woke old left support Trump.

Call me crazy, but the type of people who support Trump are not going Dem this year.
Agreed.

Even if you say Trump WILL lose 5% of the people who voted for him in 2016 (some collection of Hillary hating bluedogs and gullible useful idiots who will believe that Trump caused COVID and murdered 200k+ people), he will gain that back and more from the aforementioned groups.

Hell I never hated Trump, but I voted Johnson in 2016. This time I am whole hog on the Trump train.

I have wavered back and forth a couple times, but I think what I've landed on (even before the Biden laptop scandal) is that Trump will win. And if he doesn't, it's because:

(a) The media (and social media) put 110% effort into influencing the election outcome via consant streams of lies and propaganda
(b) Dems steal the election via mail in ballot chicanery
(c) Combination of (a) and (b)

I don't think (a) alone would do it. But coupled with (b), maybe. Look at all the indicators; registrations, the rallies/enthusiasm. Numerous big name never Trumpers (or close to it) coming around. Now the laptop debacle. Campaigning behavior (Biden pulling ads out of 'wish list' type states in order to fortify states the polls claim he's leading handily... Trump putting resources into states like NH, ME, and MN).

I just can't see any way Biden actually wins a "free and fair" election.
 

kittoo

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I love spending a few minutes popping back from this forum to ResetEra threads and seeing what gets selectively shared.

Here, we got New Hampshire in play, over there, they got Texas basically guaranteed to turn blue for real this time. Sucks that this country got so damn polarized to where there are basically at least two separate bubbles in which reality is interpreted completely differently. Going to be interesting to see which is true.

Seriously, its like the same thing Dems thought in 2016. They thought Texas and other deep red states were in play. They thought the blue wall could never be breached. Are we doing the same thing now? No, NH is not in play. Lets focus on what can work, not some pie in the sky ideas.
 

epicnemesis

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Don’t look at polls. Look at swing states early results. They should skew heavily to Biden because of the mail in push by Dems due to covid. They aren’t. The only place that looks like I expected it to is Pennsylvania, everywhere else is a close, and shocking Republicans lead in places like Michigan and Wisconsin.

There are a lot of assumptions, splicing, and satisficing with polls. Trust the hard data, the ballots.
 
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Haribokart

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It's absolutely insane to me. You can convince yourself of anything if you ask enough people. They are again building up this wet dream over there cause they are buying into these polls as if they are the defacto way to gauge an election. But Reeeeetards gonna reeeee.
I am a member of and like both forums. Most of the leftists there are completely delusional in what they perceive to be the truth but honestly most of the right wingers here are EXACTLY the same. Resetera and Neogaf are both political echo chambers of their respective beliefs, not reality.

As a non-American it’s interesting to watch.
 
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suedester

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I am a member of and like both forums. Most of the leftists there are completely delusional in what they perceive to be the truth but honestly most of the right wingers here are EXACTLY the same. Resetera and Neogaf are both political echo chambers of their respective beliefs, not reality.

As a non-American it’s interesting to watch.
Exactly this, the echo chamber that exists on Era is mirrored here. It’s hilarious that most on Gaf can’t see that.
 

prag16

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I am a member of and like both forums. Most of the leftists there are completely delusional in what they perceive to be the truth but honestly most of the right wingers here are EXACTLY the same. Resetera and Neogaf are both political echo chambers of their respective beliefs, not reality.

As a non-American it’s interesting to watch.
Exactly this, the echo chamber that exists on Era is mirrored here. It’s hilarious that most on Gaf can’t see that.
You don't say. EXACTLY the same? Gaf EXACTLY mirrors Era? I love people who stroll in acting like smug 'objective observers' who are apparently anything but objective. I mean, most of the "right wingers" here aren't even right wingers. They're people who have been politically marooned by the modern left. I guess that makes them alt right.