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Next-Gen PS5 & Next Xbox |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Next Gen Consoles Power Level

  • 5.8TF (24CU ) 7nm DUV ≥ 1660Ti tier

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xool

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About 7nm costs - forget Nvidia's marketing slide ..

Here :

[Cost per transistor reduction scenario to 7nm (Source: ARM) via www.techdesignforums.com/blog/2015/12/11/iedm-arm-yeric-moores-law-scaling]


Note the "knee" or "elbow" at 28nm (that's PS4 tech) .. beyond that costs go down but not as fast - overal conclusion from this is next gen (PS5) will not see as great transistor(and flops) increases as we are/were used to .. because cost.

[more] the focus on SSD next gen is timely because flash memory prices continue to scale, and drop, like Moore's law intended ..

Here's the same knee-graph from another source :


(Graph on right) - the change in cell cost is even more obvious here - it's steep to 28nm, then shallow after .. this isn't good news for next gen.

Complex exposure processes push up costs

[...]

TL;DR: non-EUV 7nm is a mistake.
^^this

The extra work needed to make features at the current scales could partially explain the cost graphs above ..

..maybe the full introduction of EUV at 5nm and beyond will fix those graphs, and maybe we'll see better generational cost scaling again at 5 and 3nm,

Hope so.
 

R600

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When Zen2 and Navi comes out in weeks time, we will be able to narrow PS5 down very accurately.

I believe we have clear picture on what to expect already, because I am very much sure Gonzalo and PCB leaks where pretty spot on.

Die size - 316-320mm²

Zen2 8 cores 3.2GHZ boost

Navi 10 - 36CUs 1.8GHZ boost 8.3TF

Hardware Ray Tracing (perhaps
resulting in ~10% larger CU and not dedicated space on die itself)

16GB of GDDR6 at 512-576 GB/s

1TB of SSD
 
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Jul 29, 2013
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I rounded up some FireStrike scores in case that's what Apisak is talking about. He said "overall" not "graphics", which would tell us how much of an impact the CPU is having.
 
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R600

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I rounded up some FireStrike scores in case that's what Apisak is talking about. He said "overall" not "graphics", which would tell us how much of an impact the CPU is having.
Great job CB, but why not take Ryzen 2700? I think that will be a match for Zen2 3.2GHZ found in consoles. Perhaps even 2700X, if IPC in gaming is that much better.

Except that the cpu of the ps4 is much weaker than an i5-750 which changes a lot of things.
You can search for FX processor as well to get more accurate result, which is still around 5K with 7850 except without 8GB of GDDR5 in system.
 
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CyberPanda

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Made this thread if you guys are interested(full interview):


Snippet:
VentureBeat: I wanted to tap your brain on semiconductor design in general. Why did you decide to make the move to Intel at this time?

Sell: Well, Intel presented me with a really exciting opportunity. I was not, honestly, out looking. I’m very excited, very bullish on Microsoft and the things I was doing there. It is true that my work on the coming Xbox was mostly done. To be leading something as important as security at a company as important as Intel is a pretty exciting opportunity.
The guy is gonna do wonders at Intel. He’s very talented, especially by looking at his resume.
 

R600

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Guys, some of you just repeat the same post every few hours (the same estimations, the same key points) :messenger_tears_of_joy::messenger_tears_of_joy:, and the funny part is nothing will change untill MS and Sony will finally tell everyone detailed specs (probably next E3).
😅

We are getting more and more little leaks everyday so its easier to pin point close aproximate specs. Who can wait a year till they announce it? Urgh...
 
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ANIMAL1975

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4.2 x 4 = 16.8....


What in the name... we did it! Team 16.8 beibi!

Guys, some of you just repeat the same post every few hours (the same estimations, the same key points) :messenger_tears_of_joy::messenger_tears_of_joy:, and the funny part is nothing will change untill MS and Sony will finally tell everyone detailed specs (probably next E3).
They are meat for the cannons in the Great floating point operations per second Wars... Dust in the wind, join the winning side my friend 😊
 

R600

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APISAK only finds codenames and benchmarks in database, he doesnt run Playstation benchmarks, he finds what AMD/Sony/MS/etc run and then decodes it.

He found PS4 benchmark back in 2013 as well as PS4Pro one, there was an article about it on DigitalFoundry.



These are 3DMark benchmarks for PS4 and Pro. Notice processor codename? It matches one on PS4 chip on first retail consoles.

Here is a tweet with DF before they made Article about it back in April.

 
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ethomaz

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APISAK only finds codenames and benchmarks in database, he doesnt run Playstation benchmarks, he finds what AMD/Sony/MS/etc run and then decodes it.

He found PS4 benchmark back in 2013 as well as PS4Pro one, there was an article about it on DigitalFoundry.
I couldn't find anything about that... there is a link?
 

Gamernyc78

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Guys, some of you just repeat the same post every few hours (the same estimations, the same key points) :messenger_tears_of_joy::messenger_tears_of_joy:, and the funny part is nothing will change untill MS and Sony will finally tell everyone detailed specs (probably next E3).
Yeah it's annoying thinking your going to get new info and then click in and you see the same few ppl throwing numbers around lol like don't you get tired? 😭😂
 

PaNaMa

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Wait, so one of the theories is that PS5 is dual GPU, like PS4 pro? Like dual 5700s? Won't that be a lot of TDP for a console, like even if it's underclocked a little? Would a dual GPU design be cost effective for Sony as its mainstream console? (wouldn't something like this be more logical mid generation refresh type thing, aimed at the same audience as Pro?). Hrmm
 

ethomaz

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Wait, so one of the theories is that PS5 is dual GPU, like PS4 pro? Like dual 5700s? Won't that be a lot of TDP for a console, like even if it's underclocked a little? Would a dual GPU design be cost effective for Sony as its mainstream console? (wouldn't something like this be more logical mid generation refresh type thing, aimed at the same audience as Pro?). Hrmm
PS4 Pro is single gpu lol
And I did not read any theory about PS5 being dual GPU.
 
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PaNaMa

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PS4 Pro is single gpu lol
And I did not read any theory about PS5 being dual GPU.
Semantics. But this was always my understanding of Ps4 Pro:


A few pages back, someone said PS5 is maybe shipping with a similar GPU setup.
 
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ethomaz

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Semantics. But this was always my understanding of Ps4 Pro:


A few pages back, someone said PS5 is maybe shipping with a similar GPU setup.
There is no semantics.
PS4 Pro is a single, monolithic, GPU.

Double the numbers of CUs is complete difference from add a new GPU lol
This thread you linked is completely nonsense.

You can disable how many CUs you want via software... you don't need a dual GPU to do that... and there is no crossfire in Pro chip... the chip is monolithic with no bus between the units.
 
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R600

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Semantics. But this was always my understanding of Ps4 Pro:


A few pages back, someone said PS5 is maybe shipping with a similar GPU setup.
PS4Pro uses "two" PS4 CU clusters. Meaning they doubled CU count and bumped memory speed to have a bit of headroom considering 2x increase in compute. There is nothing about dual GPU.

Ariel (PS5) and Arden (Scarlett) are both monolithic dies, therefore one GPU.
 

R600

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So there’s nothing actually linking it to PS5?
There is. Ariel PCI ID is under same family with all the other Sony custom chips made by AMD.

To put it simply, Gonzalo is 100% game console SOC. This can be derived from its codename. Its not desktop APU, not mobile APU, console APU.

It contains 8 core Zen2 CPU clocked at 3.2GHZ and 1.6GHZ base (coincidentally like PS4 - BC perhaps?). It also contains reference to Navi 10 Lite and ID referencing Gonzalo to Ariel.

Lets look at possible chips this could be for.

Microsoft? Maybe, but MS has its own chip - Arden, not Ariel. This was confirmed by Brad Sams back in Jan, and can be found in PCI ID database since April actually.

Stadia? Nope. Stadia has discrete Vega56 chips running with Intel CPU.

Chinese console? Maybe, although it would be surprised since Subor bankrupted and this kind of chip would be well, well above what they could afford.

It leaves us clearly with biggest possibility being Sony. Chip was in ES1 state in January, and in April it was QS. By May 21st we got Dev Kit PCB OQA leak by Reddit user who claims to be working for QA. He deleted his account 2 days later.

In any case, Gonzalo/Ariel 100% fits high performance console SOC. Its unlikely to be MS, since they have Arden as codename, and it is unlikely to be chinese console, as such SOC on 7nm node is far beyond their reach. It also cant be Stadia because Stadia is not even SOC.

So what it is? I'll go with what APISAK, guy who is following semiconductor products for decade, says.
 

bitbydeath

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There is. Ariel PCI ID is under same family with all the other Sony custom chips made by AMD.

To put it simply, Gonzalo is 100% game console SOC. This can be derived from its codename. Its not desktop APU, not mobile APU, console APU.

It contains 8 core Zen2 CPU clocked at 3.2GHZ and 1.6GHZ base (coincidentally like PS4 - BC perhaps?). It also contains reference to Navi 10 Lite and ID referencing Gonzalo to Ariel.

Lets look at possible chips this could be for.

Microsoft? Maybe, but MS has its own chip - Arden, not Ariel. This was confirmed by Brad Sams back in Jan, and can be found in PCI ID database since April actually.

Stadia? Nope. Stadia has discrete Vega56 chips running with Intel CPU.

Chinese console? Maybe, although it would be surprised since Subor bankrupted and this kind of chip would be well, well above what they could afford.

It leaves us clearly with biggest possibility being Sony. Chip was in ES1 state in January, and in April it was QS. By May 21st we got Dev Kit PCB OQA leak by Reddit user who claims to be working for QA. He deleted his account 2 days later.

In any case, Gonzalo/Ariel 100% fits high performance console SOC. Its unlikely to be MS, since they have Arden as codename, and it is unlikely to be chinese console, as such SOC on 7nm node is far beyond their reach. It also cant be Stadia because Stadia is not even SOC.

So what it is? I'll go with what APISAK, guy who is following semiconductor products for decade, says.
Seems like a stretch is all I’m saying.
It could be from ANYONE.
 

LordOfChaos

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Semantics. But this was always my understanding of Ps4 Pro:


A few pages back, someone said PS5 is maybe shipping with a similar GPU setup.
Pappa Cerny unfortunately confused a lot of people with the comment "We doubled the GPU size by essentially placing it next to a mirrored version of itself". There isn't two GPUs, he just meant they doubled the number of CUs on nearly the same architecture. Crossfire wouldn't be a great fit for a console, heck it's fallen off a cliff of support on PC.
 
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ethomaz

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I think that refers the way pro gpu is made like dual gpu of ps4. you can see it in the picture if you draw horizontal line in middle looks like butterflie wings.
But there are the Shader Engines... Pro has two Shader Engines that are basically a cluster of CUs.
AMD GCN can have up to 4 SEs.
Pro and X uses two SEs.
PS4 and XB1 uses one SE.
Vega 64 uses 4 SEs.

That doesn't mean Vega is a Quad-GPU lol

The last Dual-GPU AMD launched on the market (Fiji):

 
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R600

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Seems like a stretch is all I’m saying.
It could be from ANYONE.
But who is anyone that makes gaming SOC with top of the line parts still not found in retail and has it tapped out in QS already for 3 months?

If someone else (like Samsung, Apple, Amazon etc.) had QS chip already done, then leaks about their console would pop in left and right, before even tapping the chip.


Note that this is overall system score, so CPU and memory will get in the score as well. Plus, its syntetic so Vega56 can be better then 2070 even though its not even close to it.

If Gonzalo scores ~20K here, I would say its below 2070 (as we know, Navi XT is above in games and likely well above in syntetic benches).

Still, it will be superb IMO.
 
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bitbydeath

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But who is anyone that makes gaming SOC with top of the line parts still not found in retail and has it tapped out in QS already for 3 months?

If someone else (like Samsung, Apple, Amazon etc.) had QS chip already done, then leaks about their console would pop in left and right, before even tapping the chip.
It could literally be Bob down the street.
If the hardware were completed already then it’d release in 2019.

Was PS4 / PS4 Pro detected 1.5-2 years in advance of release?
 

LordOfChaos

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It could literally be Bob down the street.
If the hardware were completed already then it’d release in 2019.

Was PS4 / PS4 Pro detected 1.5-2 years in advance of release?
Didn't someone just make a history of PS4 leaks microsite or something, it was really good?
iirc something like 1 year before launch it was pretty well nailed down, the further back from that you got the more it actually surprised to the upside.
 

bitbydeath

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Didn't someone just make a history of PS4 leaks microsite or something, it was really good?
iirc something like 1 year before launch it was pretty well nailed down, the further back from that you got the more it actually surprised to the upside.
Yeah but leaks and physical hardware detection are two very different things as the former implies what they’re aiming for.
 
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R600

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It could literally be Bob down the street.
If the hardware were completed already then it’d release in 2019.

Was PS4 / PS4 Pro detected 1.5-2 years in advance of release?
Yes, Bob in street will put high performing SOC at 7nm for manufacturing and validation to TSMC and AMD will design this mythical chip without anyone know.

Chips, especially complex monolithic dies, have ES (engineering samples) well before system is out. So yea, 1.5yr is nothing out of the ordinary. There are 2 more revisions after QS and they need to lock the chip half a year before going retail.
 

bitbydeath

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Yes, Bob in street will put high performing SOC at 7nm for manufacturing and validation to TSMC and AMD will design this mythical chip without anyone know.

Chips, especially complex monolithic dies, have ES (engineering samples) well before system is out. So yea, 1.5yr is nothing out of the ordinary. There are 2 more revisions after QS and they need to lock the chip half a year before going retail.
You didn’t answer my question.
Everything your backing your theories on are PS4 and PS4 Pro being possibly detected.

How far in advance were they detected?
 
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