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Next-Gen PS5 & Next Xbox |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Next Gen Consoles Power Level

  • 5.8TF (24CU ) 7nm DUV ≥ 1660Ti tier

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    66

wutnau

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Sep 18, 2017
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If PS5 gets a 80CU chip
I haven't really kept up with the thread lately, just skimmed it (too much speculation, not enough pastebin) so apologies if this has been discussed in detail, but - now with the Navi architecture, is there still a limit of 64 CUs or not?

(and 19.5TF, don't keep bogarting that joint)
 
Dec 12, 2006
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MS and Sony are working together, not against. Despite what people think, they are not in another arms race like 7th gen...

Oh, it's an arms race alright.

Sun Tzu - 'The Art of War' said:
“Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predictable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment — that which they cannot anticipate.”
 

Evilms

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February-June 2019, RIP Radeon VII.
 
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McHuj

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I still don't understand how people think we are getting a $2500 PC for $499 in console form.
But we’re not getting a PC. We’re getting a 499 console that costs some X dollars. What similar components else where in the consumer market is rather irrelevant as you can’t buy the exact console SOC on the market.

If your producing a 7nm 300mm chip, it doesn’t really matter what’s on it, the production costs will be roughly the same whether it’s using Ryzen from 3 years ago or today (there’s some variability but not that much). Most semiconductor companies are concerned with average unit cost, there rest like licensing issues for IP is negotiable.

What we have no clue about with both Ryzen and Navi is how much both MS and Sony contributed in the development process. We’re they able to negotiate a deal where they paid an upfront cost for R&D and now are buying chips at cost? Probably not, but there are infinite possibilities as to how the business side is financed especially over a 10 year console cycle.
 

xool

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May 29, 2018
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February-June 2019, RIP Radeon VII.
I suppose they still make the AMD Radeon MI60 and MI50 for supercompute stuff ? (which are basically the same chip, not nerfed and 10x the price)

What happened to Bitcoin ? (hope you dead) - the switch from compute flexibility to a focus on pure graphic performance must have hurt crypto performance.
 
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Sycomunkee

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But we’re not getting a PC. We’re getting a 499 console that costs some X dollars. What similar components else where in the consumer market is rather irrelevant as you can’t buy the exact console SOC on the market.

If your producing a 7nm 300mm chip, it doesn’t really matter what’s on it, the production costs will be roughly the same whether it’s using Ryzen from 3 years ago or today (there’s some variability but not that much). Most semiconductor companies are concerned with average unit cost, there rest like licensing issues for IP is negotiable.

What we have no clue about with both Ryzen and Navi is how much both MS and Sony contributed in the development process. We’re they able to negotiate a deal where they paid an upfront cost for R&D and now are buying chips at cost? Probably not, but there are infinite possibilities as to how the business side is financed especially over a 10 year console cycle.
I understand you cannot get the SOC on the market, that much is obvious. But they aren't going to make some super-powered console that is more powerful than most of their CPU's and GPU's but costs less than their mid-range components. It makes no sense. If that were the case, they would just make SOC's for gaming PC's with a custom socket.
 
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sonomamashine

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I have a feeling Sony doesn't feel as desperate about performance as some of their fans. With a smooth transition they will maintain superior adoption compared to MS, Nintendo does their own thing, and Stadia is poop on a stick.
Sony has good studios they can make $h!t happen even tho i think MS gonna release a superior console, i disagree with you Stadia gonna sell a ton it's like Nintendo they are targeting kids who spend a lot of time on youtube (pewdiepie n $h!t) just click on the description to play the same game as "their idols"

I still don't understand how people think we are getting a $2500 PC for $499 in console form.
that's songoku for ya, o well EUV ............, company's like Sony & MS don't rely on future or in production tech to make products, they already said 2020, what if it's not ready ?

Crossgen games are never impressive compared to real next gen imo.
At most is equal to a PC version with settings turned up, nothing groundbreaking really.

Im curious because i read this before, what exactly was so disappointing about that cut scene?
To me it looked on par with any other current gen game
cross gen games graphics usually tells you what to expect, add 30% to 50% best case scenario difference, look at the last of us Ps4 and Uncharted 4 how do they compare to you, Cyberpunk, Halo, you can be sure that this is it, you have MS at E3 showing their best IP and you expect to not show their best ? usually studios always lie on E3 trailers with better graphics etc ... to attract more players .
 
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So fellas, i font post much here and i pretty dont know wtf half you are talking bout most of the time, But can anyone tell me whats the stronger console as of rumours? 😂
 

Mass Shift

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Jun 12, 2019
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I understand you cannot get the SOC on the market, that much is obvious. But they aren't going to make some super-powered console that is more powerful than most of their CPU's and GPU's but costs less than their mid-range components. It makes no sense. If that were the case, they would just make SOC's for gaming PC's with a custom socket.
Well You just touched upon one of the key fundamentals that separate PC gamers from console gamers. Imagine forcing PC gamers to buy pre-baked APUs over the option to choose and configure their components the way they want.

Might as well drop a nuke after that decision because that would be the only way to control the revolt that would follow.

The custom touches that Sony and Microsoft make to their own silicon is up to them, not AMD. And it is in AMD's interest to accommodate their console manufacturing partners as the millions of components they order from them are a significant part of their revenue stream that also pumps billions into their R&D.
 
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Negotiator

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It makes no sense. If that were the case, they would just make SOC's for gaming PC's with a custom socket.
A "custom socket"? This is technically impossible.

Console APUs are soldered for a reason, including DRAM chips.

In other words, you cannot have GDDR in DIMMs. There's a reason PC APUs are severely gimped.
 

~Fake

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Dec 20, 2018
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I agree. I feel some are going to be disappointed no matter what though. It would be nice to get cutting edge specs but it just isn't realistic.
Maybe some 'PC gamers' will be dissapointed with specs, but I'll never been dissapointed with what devs could make with this custom hardware. Thats where the magic happens.
Besides, the CPU jump is very high in comparison with gpu no doub, so can't understand the dissapoint, unless of course some here want Sony break with AMD and put intel+nvidia on future playstation consoles... At low price of course. /s
 
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Sycomunkee

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Well You just touched upon one of the key fundamentals that separate PC gamers from console gamers. Imagine forcing PC gamers to buy pre-baked APUs over the option to choose and configure their components the way they want.

Might as well drop a nuke after that decision because that would be the only way to control the revolt that would follow.

The custom touches that Sony and Microsoft make to their own silicon is up to them, not AMD. And it is in AMD's interest to accommodate their console manufacturing partners as the millions of components they order from them are a significant part of their revenue stream that also pumps billions into their R&D.
The point I was trying to make is that, you aren't going to get 11-14TFin a small console that costs $499. Not that PC's will start getting SOC's, I was being sarcastic. Sony and Microsoft can't lose their asses on consoles by hundreds of dollars per console and don't need to reach those numbers to have amazing visuals or gameplay. The beleif that we will be using EUV to boost performance is dumb, if anything the consoles will start out DUV and a slim model or revision will be released using EUV to reduce imperfections in production.
 
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Mass Shift

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The point I was trying to make is that, you aren't going to get 11-14TFin a small console that costs $499. Not that PC's will start getting SOC's, I was being sarcastic. Sony and Microsoft can't lose their asses on consoles by hundreds of dollars per console and don't need to reach those numbers to have amazing visuals or gameplay. The beleif that we will be using EUV to boost performance is dumb, if anything the consoles will start out DUV and a slim model or revision will be released using EUV to reduce imperfections in production.
At the very least EUV makes economical sense. In the most practical sense, a 20% performance boost is nothing to thumb our noses at. So the belief isn't dumb, it's just being hopeful.
 

Sycomunkee

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At the very least EUV makes economical sense. In the most practical sense, a 20% performance boost is nothing to thumb our noses at. So the belief isn't dumb, it's just being hopeful.
Is the process cheaper than DUV? I'm reading that it's not and that could play a role in whether not the process is used.
 
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THE:MILKMAN

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Is the process cheaper than DUV?
An even more important (unknown and risky) factor would be if EUV in a big APU chip can be made in the vast quantities of a console? Between both next-gen systems we're talking upward of 2 million chips a month!

DUV would be much less of a risk and of course at least a year more mature and had a pipe cleaner and this month Navi.

Maybe some 'PC gamers' will be dissapointed with specs, but I'll never been dissapointed with what devs could make with this custom hardware. Thats where the magic happens.
Besides, the CPU jump is very high in comparison with gpu no doub, so can't understand the dissapoint, unless of course some here want Sony break with AMD and put intel+nvidia on future playstation consoles... At low price of course. /s
Oh I agree. Right now I'm pretty sure in a couple of ways the systems seem to be shaping up better than my expected specs already. Anything more will just be gravy.
 

ethomaz

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Good boring :D

PS. At least the write up about how the circular wafer is cut by the laser to form the individual chips and because that there is a lot of lose chips on the border was a good read... thumbs up to the poster.
 
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ethomaz

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February-June 2019, RIP Radeon VII.
That made no sense actually.

The MI50 and MI60 will be discontinued too? I don't think so.
The actual chip will be in production until a new one is delivered next year.

That rumor seems a bit weird.
 

TeamGhobad

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That made no sense actually.

The MI50 and MI60 will be discontinued too? I don't think so.
The actual chip will be in production until a new one is delivered next year.

That rumor seems a bit weird.
its not. Navi is far superior. in with the new, out with the old.
 

ethomaz

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its not. Navi is far superior. in with the new, out with the old.
Navi is not related with MI50 or MI60 products.
GCN is the architecture that will continue powering that market.

Are you trying to say AMD is killing MI50 and MI60?
 
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ethomaz

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thats fine. but vega products sucks. my cousin bought the vega 64 and the low end navi smokes it. all hail Navi.
That is not Vega 64...

Radeon VII is still the top perform in AMD lineup and for the prosumer and HPC market (MI50, MI60) the only option.
 

SonGoku

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now with the Navi architecture, is there still a limit of 64 CUs or not?
No, the SEs are much more capable now
With 2 extra SEs (for a total of 4), up to 80CUs (40DCUs) is theoretically possible.

That said i think 60-66CU is the sweet spot for consoles
Guys, wouldn't 80CU be in "wipes the floor with 745mm2 2080Ti" area?
On 7nm EUV a 80CU APU would take ~400mm2 and yes it would destroy the 2080Ti even with a paltry 1550MHz clock (14.2TF)
 
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LordOfChaos

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its not. Navi is far superior. in with the new, out with the old.
Vega isn't going anywhere as their compute architecture until there's a replacement. The new Mac Pro uses chips that are the uncapped VII (or the MI50). Navi is more efficient at gaming, but partially by way of reducing its optimization for compute.

Part of the problem with Vega was that AMD didn't split out their gaming and compute lines as Nvidia did, costing less R&D to just use the same for both, but that didn't go great.
 

SonGoku

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that is more powerful than most of their CPU's and GPU's but costs less than their mid-range components.
10-12TF wont be the best AMD/Nvidia can do come late 2020
I agree 14TF is pushing the limits but 10-12TF its a grounded expectation
Is the process cheaper than DUV?
Yes
DUV would be much less of a risk and of course at least a year more mature and had a pipe cleaner and this month Navi.
TSCM claims yields are on par with DUV.
cross gen games graphics usually tells you what to expect
What cross gen game this gen gave you that vibe?
The only crossgen game that was even remotely impressive was BF4 and that used PC as lead platform.
the last of us Ps4 and Uncharted 4
That's just a testament of what the PS3 HW was capable off when put in the right hands. It looks 100% last gen at higher resolution
Tiny corridors and low rez texture work, if we could emulate the PS3 version at higher resolution it would look just as as good
 
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THE:MILKMAN

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TSCM claims yields are on par with DUV.
I wasn't talking about yields, more the cycle time. I wonder if for a mass produced product like a console chip whether they can make enough wafers a day yet?

As for the TSMC claim that yields are on par with DUV then I would ask for what chip? I believe the first chip to be made in mass quantities will be the Kirin 985 mobile chip or if not the Apple A13? They are very different to a 350+mm^2 HPC chip.
 

SonGoku

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I wonder if for a mass produced product like a console chip whether they can make enough wafers a day yet?
That's entirely dependent on yields though
Kirin 985 mobile chip or if not the Apple A13?
True but if yields are on par with DUV for mobile chips, it bodes well for bigger chips next year
Remember mobile SoCs are produced in the million of units, much more than any console launch, and EUV is supposed to make manufacturing easier so better yields. 7nm EUV is not a new process either.

btw im not claiming it will happen, just speculating on the posibility which is not as far fetched and people make it out to be.
 
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xool

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As for the TSMC claim that yields are on par with DUV then I would ask for what chip? I believe the first chip to be made in mass quantities will be the Kirin 985 mobile chip or if not the Apple A13? They are very different to a 350+mm^2 HPC chip.
Yields as "defects per square cm" is die size independent .. and can be extrapolated to other sizes. (if they're as good for 88mm2 they should be as good but lower for 300mm2 -same between different processes)

But I don't think they've yet given numbers for yields - so the point is moot
 

THE:MILKMAN

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That's entirely dependent on yields though

True but if yields are on par with DUV for mobile chips, it bodes well for bigger chips next year
Remember mobile SoCs are produced in the million of units, much more than any console launch, and EUV is supposed to make manufacturing easier so better yields. 7nm EUV is not a new process either.

btw im not claiming it will happen, just speculating on the posibility which is not as far fetched and people make it out to be.
I will concede technically EUV can't be ruled out but for a few reasons I would be very surprised if they did use it. Hopefully we find out soon!
 
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SonGoku

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I will concede technically EUV can't be ruled out but for a few reasons I would be very surprised if they did use it. Hopefully we find out soon!
Another possibility is going with a big DIE on 7nm DUV ( say ~390-400) for late 2020 launch and then shrink to 330-340mm2 on 6nm come late 2021/early 2022. 6nm is design compatible with regular 7nm so its basically a "free" shrink for cost reductions.

Going with 7nm EUV from the start will enable more performance and less cost, so that's the preferable outcome.
 
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bitbydeath

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So fellas, i font post much here and i pretty dont know wtf half you are talking bout most of the time, But can anyone tell me whats the stronger console as of rumours? 😂
It’s been a battle of Navi10 (8-9TFs) vs Navi20.
(10-14TFs).

I’d argue it is most likely Navi20 since Navi10 doesn’t support the already announced Ray-Tracing while others want to lower their expectations just in case.
 

Imtjnotu

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