Next-Gen PS5 & Next Xbox |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Next Gen Consoles Power Level


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mckmas8808

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In context, 1.8TF of GCN as well.
Word! That's the point that even most of us miss. Compare that to a console that would be equivalent to 15TFs of GCN power (8.5x increase) with a proper desktop CPU and an onboard SSD (instead of a slow 7200 rpm mechanical spinning hard drive).

It's miles apart and the difference is clearly there.
 
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Negotiator

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You literally missed the part that those are OpenCL compute benchmarks and the drivers suck ass. He had problems to even execute those benchmarks. Did you even read? Consoles use their own libraries for gpu programming and has nothing to do with shitty AMD drivers for OpenCL.
I read, but you didn't read the part where Navi sacrificed compute raw power to increase rasterization efficiency (Wave64 -> Wave32, more SRAM for DSBR etc.)

These are hardware design trade-offs that even an optimized driver is not going to fix. Consoles will not use vanilla Navi, they'll have their own semi-custom variant.
 
Mar 18, 2019
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PS5 more powerful or more accurately nexbox not more powerful than the ps5. so why would people pick it over the ps5? another major fuckup by MS. you would think professional pride in a trillion dollar company like MS would force them to design a more powerful system but no.
what are you talking about? you have no idea which is more powefuk
 

Sycomunkee

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Word! That's the point that even most of us miss. Compare that to a console that would be equivalent to 15TFs of GCN power (8.5x increase) with a proper desktop CPU and an onboard SSD (instead of a slow 7200 rpm mechanical spinning hard drive).

It's miles apart and the difference is clearly there.
Exactly. But isn't it more along the lines of 13.5 TF or am I still getting the GCN -> RDNA at 1.5x the performance wrong?
 

Negotiator

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Exactly. But isn't it more along the lines of 13.5 TF or am I still getting the GCN -> RDNA at 1.5x the performance wrong?
The funny thing is I don't remember anyone back in 2012-2013 trying to translate GCN 1.1 flops to RSX flops to make it look bigger than it really is.

Every new gen brings efficiency improvements.
 

mckmas8808

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Exactly. But isn't it more along the lines of 13.5 TF or am I still getting the GCN -> RDNA at 1.5x the performance wrong?
I'm assuming the consoles we'll get will be like 11 TFs counting the rDNA way.

The funny thing is I don't remember anyone back in 2012-2013 trying to translate GCN 1.1 flops to RSX flops to make it look bigger than it really is.

Every new gen brings efficiency improvements.
I think that's a problem too. We should have taken in efficiency too. You can't leave it out.
 
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DeepEnigma

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Word! That's the point that even most of us miss. Compare that to a console that would be equivalent to 15TFs of GCN power (8.5x increase) with a proper desktop CPU and an onboard SSD (instead of a slow 7200 rpm mechanical spinning hard drive).

It's miles apart and the difference is clearly there.
It wasn't even 7200, it was 5400. But agreed.

It is going to blow minds, and not be "diminishing returns" like people propagate.
 

MadAnon

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I read, but you didn't read the part where Navi sacrificed compute raw power to increase rasterization efficiency (Wave64 -> Wave32, more SRAM for DSBR etc.)

These are hardware design trade-offs that even an optimized driver is not going to fix. Consoles will not use vanilla Navi, they'll have their own semi-custom variant.
Yeah but you should take into account the massive clock increase. Compute shouldn't be anywhere near RX 580 level bad as those benchmarks show. There's clear driver problem.
 
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Sycomunkee

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I'm assuming the consoles we'll get will be like 11 TFs counting the rDNA way.



I think that's a problem too. We should have taken in efficiency too. You can't leave it out.
Gotcha, I'm still on the 9TF bandwagon. But either way, I agree that efficiency, newer technologies, etc. all play a huge factor in all of this.

Can't believe people got hyped for $499 8-9TF. That would be a major ripoff.
You're paying for more than just a GPU though.
 
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T-Cake

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Interesting that Google Stadia looks like it's going to be held back by the current consoles so we aren't going to see anything designed purely for 10TFlops until they bring out their own exclusive and the next-gen begins. Everything they've shown today in Stadia Connect is just existing stuff mostly.
 
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DeepEnigma

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Interesting that Google Stadia looks like it's going to be held back by the current consoles so we aren't going to see anything designed purely for 10TFlops until they bring out their own exclusive and the next-gen begins. Everything they've shown today in Stadia Connect is just existing stuff mostly.
This was to be expected. Third party devs are just going to treat it like another PC.
 
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Kazekage1981

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So the following rumors of PS5 (and most likely Scarlett) seems to be more likely coming true:

- hitting double digit TFLOPS (10-12 TFLOPS)
-GPU being close to 2 Ghz

Important questions still remain:
-How many Ghz will the CPU be? Anything less than 3.0Ghz will be too low. Reaching close to 4.0Ghz would be ideal
-How much of GDDR6 RAM and RAM bandwidth? Ive always measured console RAM based on Optical disk drive sizes (lol):

PS3/Xbox 360: 512MB (Close to the storage size of CD 700MB)
Vanilla PS4 & PS4 Pro/Xbox One: 8 GIG with 5 GIG available for games (Close to DVD-R 4.7GB)
Xbox One X: 12 GIG of RAM with 9 GIG available for games (DVD-9 Size)

For Scarlett and PS5: It could be 15 GIG GDDR6 available with 3-5 GIGS reserved for OS (Overall almost close to 25 GIG Blu-Ray Disk, but RAM available for games close to HD-DVD disks)
 
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Mass Shift

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Xbone S is stronger than fat Xbone by around 100 GFLOPS. That's around 8 - 10% At 9-10 TF it would be 0.8-1 TF difference in PS5 favor
In meat terms, your local butcher would probably tell you that slicing 0.8% off the slab isn't enough to make a decent sandwich. But if tiny margins are what will satisfy then I guess there are those that will cling to that for arguments sake.

I would just remind those individuals clinging to those margins that we have yet to see an engineering sample being leaked for Scarlett. None of these sources no matter how reliable can say definitively which platform has advantages over the other without significant up to date knowledge on target kit builds or final specs.

That's not me throwing shade at any of these guys, but I remember the surprise the 360 had with unified shaders and memexport, and the PS4 with 8GBs of gddr5 instead of 4.

We're so far off. Too much is unknown for people to start hanging their hats on just a few whispers.
 

Racer43

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maybe it's based on history & the cost of N7 being 2x more...
Both of which are exactly why people have that problem. If you think tomorrow is gonna look like yesterday, you will see no progress. In tech especially, we know what costs 2x more today, is not indicative of what cost will be years from now. Blows my mind some still dont get this.
 
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Lone Wolf

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Interesting that Google Stadia looks like it's going to be held back by the current consoles so we aren't going to see anything designed purely for 10TFlops until they bring out their own exclusive and the next-gen begins. Everything they've shown today in Stadia Connect is just existing stuff mostly.
Google stadia gpus are Vega based I thought?
 
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Marlenus

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maybe it's based on history & the cost of N7 being 2x more...
Based on history PS4 was about the same performance as the cut down 215mm^2 pitcairn based GPU. That would suggest next gen will be something like the rx5700.

There is a difference though in that Pitcairn and the console SOC were built on 28nm where as it looks like the next gen consoles will be built on 7nm+ which means I can see performance being closer to the 5700XT if we go based on what happened last time.

This gen though I think Sony went with a keep it simple approach and designed a balanced console that was much less of a loss leader than we were previously used to with PS2 and PS3.

If Sony go with a more PS2 level of loss on the raw hardware at launch then I could see upto 14Tflops being doable otherwise I think it will be around 10.
 

sonomamashine

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Both of which are exactly why people have that problem. If you think tomorrow is gonna look like yesterday, you will see no progress. In tech especially, we know what costs 2x more today, is not indicative of what cost will be years from now. Blows my mind some still dont get this.
Blow my mind some still don't get that cost per wafer will rise more on 5nm, 3nm.


Based on history PS4 was about the same performance as the cut down 215mm^2 pitcairn based GPU. That would suggest next gen will be something like the rx5700.

There is a difference though in that Pitcairn and the console SOC were built on 28nm where as it looks like the next gen consoles will be built on 7nm+ which means I can see performance being closer to the 5700XT if we go based on what happened last time.

This gen though I think Sony went with a keep it simple approach and designed a balanced console that was much less of a loss leader than we were previously used to with PS2 and PS3.

If Sony go with a more PS2 level of loss on the raw hardware at launch then I could see upto 14Tflops being doable otherwise I think it will be around 10.
I dont think 2Ghz make sense, more heat, more money for cooling, i think AMD Game clock 1800Mhz is indicative of what their GPU can handle before going nuts (heat), unless EUV 1980Mhz (2Ghz), add more CU's 46 total for 11.7Tf.
i think that too between DUV 9tf - EUV 11.7tf.
 
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DeeThaDogg

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I go out for the evening and this is welcome I return to? No matter.

The entertainment for me was figuring things out, not any console warring. People just takes things too personally.

There's no need to worry. I won't be spoiling things from here.

I had fun even if no one else did ;)
ok
 

Negotiator

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Blow my mind some still don't get that cost per wafer will rise more on 5nm, 3nm.
Design cost != etching cost

Totally different things. The graph you posted only describes the design cost (chip R&D), not etching chips on a wafer.

Etching is supposed to get cheaper with EUV. It has been the holy grail of the semiconductor foundry industry since the 80s.
 

Negotiator

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I've posted the exact same pics long before you did. :)

You need to remember that wafer costs drop as the process matures over time.

For example, FinFET 16nm was expensive back in 2016-2017, that's why only Sony/MS used it for consoles, but it's cheap enough these days for Nintendo (Switch Lite) as well.
 

PUNKem733

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Aug 8, 2019
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So the following rumors of PS5 (and most likely Scarlett) seems to be more likely coming true:

- hitting double digit TFLOPS (10-12 TFLOPS)
-GPU being close to 2 Ghz

Important questions still remain:
-How many Ghz will the CPU be? Anything less than 3.0Ghz will be too low. Reaching close to 4.0Ghz would be ideal
-How much of GDDR6 RAM and RAM bandwidth? Ive always measured console RAM based on Optical disk drive sizes (lol):

PS3/Xbox 360: 512MB (Close to the storage size of CD 700MB)
Vanilla PS4 & PS4 Pro/Xbox One: 8 GIG with 5 GIG available for games (Close to DVD-R 4.7GB)
Xbox One X: 12 GIG of RAM with 9 GIG available for games (DVD-9 Size)

For Scarlett and PS5: It could be 15 GIG GDDR6 available with 3-5 GIGS reserved for OS (Overall almost close to 25 GIG Blu-Ray Disk, but RAM available for games close to HD-DVD disks)
It could be, but won't be when talking about system memory. It's going to be either 16 or 20 GB with a separate pool of 6-8GB of DDR4 for the OS.
 

Racer43

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Blow my mind some still don't get that cost per wafer will rise more on 5nm, 3nm.




i think that too between DUV 9tf - EUV 11.7tf.
Are you serious? Have a feeling im being trolled...

In case youre not trolling, that has nothing to do with wafer production. Its path to validation sample.
 
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Sycomunkee

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I understand Klee is verified. Anyone know why though? If he is credible I’ll assume 10TF which is far better than the 8TF I was originally assuming.
 
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sonomamashine

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I've posted the exact same pics long before you did. :)

You need to remember that wafer costs drop as the process matures over time.

For example, FinFET 16nm was expensive back in 2016-2017, that's why only Sony/MS used it for consoles, but it's cheap enough these days for Nintendo (Switch Lite) as well.
i dont think price will drop enough at the time for next gen release.
Are you serious? Have a feeling im being trolled...

In case youre not trolling, that has nothing to do with wafer production. Its path to validation sample.
isn't R&D included when you buy a product ?
 
Dec 12, 2006
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I think I will use this as an opportunity to leave the next-gen debate. I took a step back over the last few days and I realise that I've spent far too much time on this puzzle rather than with my family.

I think there are far better qualified people than me to take part in the ongoing discussion. Many of them on this thread and elsewhere.

Both machines seem to be shaping up to give everyone incredible games on both platforms. There's plenty of time before the launches for things to change so I wouldn't take any stock in any of my posts.

If I've spoken out of line to anyone during my time here or elsewhere then please accept my sincere apologies.

I'll be asking EviLore EviLore to close my account shortly.

Thank you all for giving me the opportunity to set the record straight.
 

PUNKem733

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Aug 8, 2019
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I think I will use this as an opportunity to leave the next-gen debate. I took a step back over the last few days and I realise that I've spent far too much time on this puzzle rather than with my family.

I think there are far better qualified people than me to take part in the ongoing discussion. Many of them on this thread and elsewhere.

Both machines seem to be shaping up to give everyone incredible games on both platforms. There's plenty of time before the launches for things to change so I wouldn't take any stock in any of my posts.

If I've spoken out of line to anyone during my time here or elsewhere then please accept my sincere apologies.

I'll be asking EviLore EviLore to close my account shortly.

Thank you all for giving me the opportunity to set the record straight.

Why do people act like martyrs here with their account deletion? Can't you just leave and come back when you want, or leave permanently? You realize you spend too much time in a thread on a forum, and it's time to delete your account? LOLOL
 

SonGoku

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Why do people act like martyrs here with their account deletion? Can't you just leave and come back when you want, or leave permanently? You realize you spend too much time in a thread on a forum, and it's time to delete your account? LOLOL
HURDUR look at me, im a internet tough guy
 
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Mass Shift

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I think I will use this as an opportunity to leave the next-gen debate. I took a step back over the last few days and I realise that I've spent far too much time on this puzzle rather than with my family.

I think there are far better qualified people than me to take part in the ongoing discussion. Many of them on this thread and elsewhere.

Both machines seem to be shaping up to give everyone incredible games on both platforms. There's plenty of time before the launches for things to change so I wouldn't take any stock in any of my posts.

If I've spoken out of line to anyone during my time here or elsewhere then please accept my sincere apologies.

I'll be asking EviLore EviLore to close my account shortly.

Thank you all for giving me the opportunity to set the record straight.
 
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xool

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Confirmed - we're trapped in a loop ..40 pages and over 1 month ago .. I think we were at ~10-11TF then too ..

The R&D cost delta between 16nm/7nm is 1-2$ per chip produced.
Depends on how many you sell (fixed on off cost) - but yeah - I think that's about right for the chip

I think I will use this as an opportunity to leave the next-gen debate.
Another one bites the dust. Why do people always declare their account deletion? Why can’t they just log off?
It's hard to take a break when you can still log in - internet is addictive. Just ask for a temporary log-in ban so you can time out ..

Yep. Doesn't say yes or no to 10-11 or 12.9 .. but doesn't shoot them down - looks like low teens then I think.
 
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Oct 26, 2018
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Someone cant handle a thread talking about guessing next gen specs for fun? Needs self imposed mod ban?

Wow. I wonder what happens when he makes toast and burns an edge.

I forsee a toaster thrown 40 ft down the street.
 
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bitbydeath

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It means 10-13TF is the range
If the 2GHz leak is real i estimate CU count its within the 44-52 range.
44 @2000MHz = 11.2TF
48 @2000MHz = 12.28TF
52 @2000MHz = 13.3TF
Reminds me of Reddit insider post a while back where they said people would be disappointed with the specs and continued on with it being 12TF.

Pretty sure it was posted here but no idea how to find it again.

Edit: Whaddya know, I found it.

 
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