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Next-Gen PS5 & Next Xbox |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Next Gen Consoles Power Level

  • 5.8TF (24CU ) 7nm DUV ≥ 1660Ti tier

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Racer43

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I agree both will be the same most likely but considering cuckbert's posting history hes trying to imply ps5 was designed to be custom and xb2 maximum power
PS5 - More Custom less powerful
XB2 - More powerful

Yep and I think big Navi and PS5/XB2 will introduce RDNA2

Yup. It would also surprise me if it isnt 7nm+, which would give 60 CU`s at the same size with lower power. What AMD is doing here is maximizing profits, making the smallest possible chip with highest possible clockspeed, just enough to beat nvidia at a slightly lower price.
 
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ethomaz

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The 40CU card is clocked very high (1750-1900 Mhz) likely way past its perf/watt sweet spot
A 64CU card can be clocked lower and achieve greater perf/watt. 7nm yields can also factor in higher than needed voltages
64CUs (72 CUs - 8 disabled) - Frequency Teraflops
1500​
12.28​
1580​
12.94​
1600​
13.1​
1650​
13.5​
1600-1650Mhz are out of question imo.

And the number of CUs I don't believe it will have 72CUs.



The actual Shader Engine can have 20CUs...
So you have two paths that AMD can take to increase CUs:

1) Up to 4 Shader Engines:
You can have 4SEs with 16, 18, 20 CUs but not odd numbers.
In theory you can have these options: 4x14 (56), 4x16 (64) or 4x20 (80), etc... multiples of 8.

2) Continue with 2 Shader Engines:
If you stick with 2 Shader Engine then you can have: 2x14 (28), 2x16 (32), 2x18 (36) 2x20 (40)...multiples of 4... can you have more than 20CUs per SE?

Navi 20 will probably use that 4 SE configuration (curious enough it was the hardware limit of GCN maybe it is a limit here too) and I expect the same for PS5/Nextxbox.
48, 56, 64, 72 or 80 CUs are the options.
Using the most probably clock:

48CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 9.22TFs (7.68TFs with 8 disabled)
56CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 10.75TFs (9.22TFs with 8 disabled)
64CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 12.29TFs (10.75TFs with 8 disabled)

72CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 13.82TFs (12.29TFs with 8 disabled)
80CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 15.26TFs (13.82TFs with 8 disabled)

To be fair with the high power draw of RDNA I can only see the bolded being an option in a APU for consoles.
 
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ethomaz

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The more we learn the more I think that this first gen RDNA was supposed to be called GCN all along, but they were wary of all the negative connotations that would bring with it, so moved the RDNA branding down one and will call the true "Next Gen" that has been on their roadmaps for years, RDNA second gen.

Navi has a substantial change to the SIMD groupings, but is still pretty GCN-ey. While Next Gen turned "Next Gen RDNA" is the whole banana.


If you looks the diagram RDNA is way different from GCN.

You have double compute units... what that means? Each 2CUs shares the same cache and some processing units.
You have now 2CUs inside a Shader Engine only for controller.
You have now 2 SIMD32 per CU.
You have doubled Vector and Scalar units inside the CU.

That is what is coming from my mind right now... there is more changes.
 
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LordOfChaos

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I think PS5/XB2 APUs will be made on 7nm EUV so they can get RDNA2
They can port ZEN2 to 7nm EUV right? @LordOfChaos
N7, N7+ and N6 all use the same design rules which TSMC says makes it easy for existing customers to port over, so I would imagine.

Given both Sony and Microsoft specified 7nm, N6 is out, N7+ uses up to four EUVL layers, its N6 uses five layers, only N5 uses all 14 layers, so it's more of a slow phase in and doesn't require a complete redesign on a new transistor library every time.
 

SonGoku

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1600-1650Mhz are out of question imo.
Why? The 5700 parts clock all the way up to 1900mhz on the default voltage
Also 7nm EUV 1600-1650Mhz should be doable
And the number of CUs I don't believe it will have 72CUs.
Im assuming RDNA2 will have 8SE (like the komachi leak) to break the limit 64CU limit
72CUs is even and a multiple of 8
48CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 9.22TFs (7.68TFs with 8 disabled)
56CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 10.75TFs (9.22TFs with 8 disabled)
64CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 12.29TFs (10.75TFs with 8 disabled)

72CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 13.82TFs (12.29TFs with 8 disabled)
80CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 15.26TFs (13.82TFs with 8 disabled)
Im confused why are you disabling 8CUs if you are assuming 4SEs?
That Navi 10 Pro with 36CUs seems like a good match for PS5 and bc. Maybe $399 next year?
lol no
8tf Panello redeemed!
Maybe perfect for a PS4 Pro slim.
Pretty much this lmao
Given both Sony and Microsoft specified 7nm
When? where
Anyways 7nm EUV aka 7nm+ is slightly better than 6nm
 
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quest

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Not exactly.

AnandTech is supposing the RT on PS4 and Nextxbox is custom made and different from next RDNA's Ray-tracing.
If it is real hardware RT it is going to be rdna2. AMD does not have the resources to make 2 other separate custom RT solutions. Both consoles will have parts of newest AMD tech but not all of it navi plus as you will not a real rdna2 GPU just some pieces like hardware RT.
 
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ethomaz

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I put 8 disabled CUs because they are group of 2CUs now... if you disable one group you disable 2CUs... so 2 per SE is 8 in a 4SE chip.

Just look at the diagram AMD shared.

And forget 8SEs... there is no way to that happen anymore... AMD increased the CUs per SE to 20.
 
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ethomaz

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If it is real hardware RT it is going to be rdna2. AMD does not have the resources to make 2 other separate custom RT solutions. Both consoles will have parts of newest AMD tech but not all of it navi plus as you will not a real rdna2 GPU just some pieces like hardware RT.
The talk is that both are custom-made RT hardware and not related to RT to be implemented in RDNA2.
 

SonGoku

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And forget 8SEs... there is no way to that happen anymore... AMD increased the CUs per SE to 20.
Is that a good thing?
To be fair with the high power draw of RDNA I can only see the bolded being an option in a APU for consoles.
Why though, considering 7nm EUV and much lower clocks (1500 vs 1900)
72CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 13.82TFs (12.29TFs with 8 disabled)
80CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 15.26TFs (13.82TFs with 8 disabled)

Bolded are pretty much guaranteed playing it safe at 1500.
Considering 7nm+ advantages:
Bump it to 1600Mhz on the 72CU and 80CU chips: 13.1TF & 14.7TF respectively (with 8 disabled each)
For the 64CU chip: 56CUs @ 1.68Ghz = 12.04TFs (64 with 8 disabled)
 
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ethomaz

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I finally found where I read about the RT hardware from AnandTech guy... blame mobile phones.


“My understanding (emphasis on that term) is that the consoles are Navi + some custom extras. Mainly, the RT hardware. I do not know if it'll be the same RT hardware as in RDNA 2. AMD doesn't talk about future products and they definitely don't talk about customers' semi-custom silicon.”

And if anybody is interested there is a X-ray pic colored by user to understand the layout of RDNA with 2SE and 20CUs per SE.

I found the AMD’s diagrams self explanatory but maybe the chip X-ray layout can be easy.


Each group of 2CUs shares the same cache so they are together... you have one SE (up) and another SE (down) each one with 10 groups of 2CUs.

RX 5700 XT is the full chip.
RX 5700 Pro has 2 groups of CUs disabled (4 CUs disabled).
 
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SonGoku

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“My understanding (emphasis on that term) is that the consoles are Navi + some custom extras. Mainly, the RT hardware. I do not know if it'll be the same RT hardware as in RDNA 2. AMD doesn't talk about future products and they definitely don't talk about customers' semi-custom silicon.”
From his wording hes just speculating not based on insider info
 

DemonCleaner

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yay, no more* idling shaders


*(as in less)





finally

the colors represent operations of different types. so my speculation about working with up to two different types of operations in one wave turned out to be true :messenger_bicep:




and fixed delta color compression:

 
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TBiddy

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Sorry if this has been brought up before, but I was thinking about the whole "4 times faster than the Xbox One X" claim, that Microsoft made. I'm sure we all agree, that the NextBox isn't gonna be 24 TF, so what could it mean?

In my mind, it means that the NextBox can run games at 4 times the resolution of the XBX, which means that a game running at 4k30 on the XBX will run at 8k30 on the NextBox. Is that far-fetched?
 

CyberPanda

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Sorry if this has been brought up before, but I was thinking about the whole "4 times faster than the Xbox One X" claim, that Microsoft made. I'm sure we all agree, that the NextBox isn't gonna be 24 TF, so what could it mean?

In my mind, it means that the NextBox can run games at 4 times the resolution of the XBX, which means that a game running at 4k30 on the XBX will run at 8k30 on the NextBox. Is that far-fetched?

From Eurogamer interview:

If you let me back I'll be here. Back to Scarlett... you mentioned it has four times the power of Xbox One X, which certainly sounds good. But what does that mean?

Matt Booty: It's a few things - it's the combination of speed, not just of the SSD but of the processor, the performance of the GPU and RAM, but we're also in a world where speed is starting not to matter. You can make RAM faster either by speeding up the way you access it or by adding more access points. Just think, what are all the things right now which take you out of a game? You're playing then suddenly *bloop* a load screen pops up and drops you out. Our goal is to get rid of those things, that's what we're after.
 

ethomaz

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yay, no more* idling shaders


*(as in less)





finally

the colors represent operations of different types. so my speculation about working with up to two different types of operations in one wave turned out to be true :messenger_bicep:




and fixed delta color compression:

They fixed primitive shaders too that is fucked since ever in GCN.
 
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TBiddy

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From Eurogamer interview:

If you let me back I'll be here. Back to Scarlett... you mentioned it has four times the power of Xbox One X, which certainly sounds good. But what does that mean?

Matt Booty: It's a few things - it's the combination of speed, not just of the SSD but of the processor, the performance of the GPU and RAM, but we're also in a world where speed is starting not to matter. You can make RAM faster either by speeding up the way you access it or by adding more access points. Just think, what are all the things right now which take you out of a game? You're playing then suddenly *bloop* a load screen pops up and drops you out. Our goal is to get rid of those things, that's what we're after.
Thanks, I missed that interview. So in other words, it's marketing BS, as @DemonCleaner so eloquently put it. No matter what, it'll be exciting to see what happens.
 
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Lort

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Bolded is not true at all, PlayStation will sell better than next Xbox not matter what. The brand is simply way bigger than Xbox.
That was way more true in ps2 generation than it is now ... and ps3 barly if ever outsold xbox 360.

I do agree playstation will prob outsell xbox and it will depend on price not power but it could be close. Its certainly not a one horse race ..
 
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Aceofspades

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Thanks, I missed that interview. So in other words, it's marketing BS, as @DemonCleaner so eloquently put it. No matter what, it'll be exciting to see what happens.
That's Microsoft tactic since forever. Whenever they got caught off guard by Sony (happens a lot) they start spewing PR bullshit.
Last gen they bragged about using 6B transistors for Xbox One 🤣. This issue magnifies when you have lots of PR clowns like Greenberg, Larry Harb and an army of forum astrosurfers and fake insiders like Arthur Gies, Brad Sams....etc with the aid of western media like DF (Richard Leadbetter). Thats why MS loves throwing in BS numbers for these outlets to start spreading misinformation that paint their product as being superior.

Sony is not innocent of this especially prior to PS3 release. but these days they seem more focused, they feed info in a controlled manner. Just look at how they stole MS Scarlet thunder by simply soft revealing PS5, then backing their actions by demonstrating a demo to showcase their technology. Instead of spewing meaningless numbers like MS. Come PS experience and they will showcase the new controller, the VR headset, their roadmap for next gen.

Sony just continued to outplay MS just like last gen. They simply have a clearer plan for the future.
 

SlashBringingHasher

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Is that a good thing?

Why though, considering 7nm EUV and much lower clocks (1500 vs 1900)
72CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 13.82TFs (12.29TFs with 8 disabled)
80CUs @ 1.5Ghz = 15.26TFs (13.82TFs with 8 disabled)

Bolded are pretty much guaranteed playing it safe at 1500.
Considering 7nm+ advantages:
Bump it to 1600Mhz on the 72CU and 80CU chips: 13.1TF & 14.7TF respectively (with 8 disabled each)
For the 64CU chip: 56CUs @ 1.68Ghz = 12.04TFs (64 with 8 disabled)
Neither console will have more than 64 CU

my guesstimate? the PS5 and xbox three will have around 56-60 CU. at 1.8 ghz. these would be around 13.8 TFLOPS. which is around what people have rumored

they will manufacture the consoles at lower than 64 CUs because they will 100% want higher yields.

if they come with the full 64 I'd be shocked lol.

tho if am Sony. I don't know why they shouldn't bring in more power with a graphics accelerator. or a cell processor side-chip that helps ps3 emulation.
 
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Raploz

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I guess next-gen consoles are gonna use 1st gen RDNA with some bits of the 2nd generation arch.


I also don't think we can compare Navi tflops with Vega's. Navi's 9,75 tflops seem to perform close to a Vega 64, which is a 12.5tf card. (Btw RTX 2070 has 7.46 tflops and has performance comparable to those two cards).

A next-gen console with 10tf to 11tf should be good enough.
 

SonGoku

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my guesstimate? the PS5 and xbox three will have around 56-60 CU. at 1.8 ghz.
Makes more sense to go for more CUs clocked lower
Better perf per/watt

Im betting on
56CUs at 1680 = 12TF
64CUs at 1600 = 13.1TF

72CUs at 1600= 14.7TF (maybe)

Im confident on bolded
I guess next-gen consoles are gonna use 1st gen RDNA with some bits of the 2nd generation arch.
Nah, RDNA2 through and through
 
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TBiddy

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That's Microsoft tactic since forever. Whenever they got caught off guard by Sony (happens a lot) they start spewing PR bullshit.
Last gen they bragged about using 6B transistors for Xbox One 🤣. This issue magnifies when you have lots of PR clowns like Greenberg, Larry Harb and an army of forum astrosurfers and fake insiders like Arthur Gies, Brad Sams....etc with the aid of western media like DF (Richard Leadbetter). Thats why MS loves throwing in BS numbers for these outlets to start spreading misinformation that paint their product as being superior.

Sony is not innocent of this especially prior to PS3 release. but these days they seem more focused, they feed info in a controlled manner. Just look at how they stole MS Scarlet thunder by simply soft revealing PS5, then backing their actions by demonstrating a demo to showcase their technology. Instead of spewing meaningless numbers like MS. Come PS experience and they will showcase the new controller, the VR headset, their roadmap for next gen.

Sony just continued to outplay MS just like last gen. They simply have a clearer plan for the future.
Yes, lets pretend that Sony doesn't do PR bullshit or have an army of astroturfers.. :)
 

Lort

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That's Microsoft tactic since forever. Whenever they got caught off guard by Sony (happens a lot) they start spewing PR bullshit.
Last gen they bragged about using 6B transistors for Xbox One 🤣. This issue magnifies when you have lots of PR clowns like Greenberg, Larry Harb and an army of forum astrosurfers and fake insiders like Arthur Gies, Brad Sams....etc with the aid of western media like DF (Richard Leadbetter). Thats why MS loves throwing in BS numbers for these outlets to start spreading misinformation that paint their product as being superior.

Sony is not innocent of this especially prior to PS3 release. but these days they seem more focused, they feed info in a controlled manner. Just look at how they stole MS Scarlet thunder by simply soft revealing PS5, then backing their actions by demonstrating a demo to showcase their technology. Instead of spewing meaningless numbers like MS. Come PS experience and they will showcase the new controller, the VR headset, their roadmap for next gen.

Sony just continued to outplay MS just like last gen. They simply have a clearer plan for the future.
The engagement from that spiderman demo was very low, the wired article was more impactful but really didnt say much.. it did seem that Sony new MS would push SSD and was proactivly trying to manage that. In reality it seems like its just the same tech that AMD offers now in its latest GPU.

Whats interesting is how MS 2 sku will play out ... Sony cant be the most powerful or xbox lockhart will easily sell the most ( because it will be sooo much cheaper). I expect Sony to not want to be too far behind anaconda .. and would rather be ahead of it.. but MS needs anaconda to be the most powerful so will wait until Sony commits before then slightly outdoing it.
 

SlashBringingHasher

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Makes more sense to go for more CUs clocked lower
Better perf per/watt

Im betting on
56CUs at 1680 = 12TF
64CUs at 1600 = 13.1TF

72CUs at 1600= 14.7TF (maybe)

Im confident on bolded

Nah, RDNA2 through and through
more CU = more expensive. consoles last gen had more cus but they were disabled to increase manufacturing yield. you wont see 64 CU consoles. 60 at most.
 

SonGoku

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more CU = more expensive. consoles last gen had more cus but they were disabled to increase manufacturing yield. you wont see 64 CU consoles. 60 at most.
Im working with 8 disabled for each tier
64 total -56 enabled
72 total - 64 enabled
80 total - 72 enabled

Theoretically you could fit up to 80CUs on a 350mm2 APU (launch PS4 size) on 7nm
On 7nm EUV no problem at all

I expect 72CUs max 64 enabled leaving space for audio processor, rt hw
 
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Aceofspades

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The engagement from that spiderman demo was very low, the wired article was more impactful but really didnt say much.. it did seem that Sony new MS would push SSD and was proactivly trying to manage that. In reality it seems like its just the same tech that AMD offers now in its latest GPU.

Whats interesting is how MS 2 sku will play out ... Sony cant be the most powerful or xbox lockhart will easily sell the most ( because it will be sooo much cheaper). I expect Sony to not want to be too far behind anaconda .. and would rather be ahead of it.. but MS needs anaconda to be the most powerful so will wait until Sony commits before then slightly outdoing it.
These machines take years to be designed, are you saying that MS will simply wait for Sony to reveal their specs then they simply build better machine? What if Sony never revealed their Specs? Microsoft will cancel next gen? C'mon man.

Your other point about Lockhart selling more than PS5 because its cheaper , That might happen in the US only, WW forget about it. Its all about brand recognition and perceived value and in both metrics PlayStation is way stronger than Xbox. Hell Xbox One has been selling for $199 and less since 2015 and it never sold as well as PS4. Lockhart will be the same.
 
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Munki

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One thing I've noticed them mentioning during the last few conferences is that they always use the words "at the silicon level" in regards to the partnership/collaboration with MS. Not sure what that implies, but it's interesting (to me).
 

llien

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Bump it to 1600Mhz on the 72CU and 80CU chips: 13.1TF & 14.7TF respectively (with 8 disabled each)
For the 64CU chip: 56CUs @ 1.68Ghz = 12.04TFs (64 with 8 disabled)
Keep in mind that 9TF 5700XT beats 12.6Tflop Vega 64.

Old 12TF wishes for PS5 were based on Vega's perf/tflop figures.
 

LordOfChaos

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When? where
Anyways 7nm EUV aka 7nm+ is slightly better than 6nm
I guess you could question the phrasing, but


The CPU is based on the third generation of AMD’s Ryzen line and contains eight cores of the company’s new 7nm Zen 2 microarchitecture.

7nm+ has a very small area lead over 6nm, but power isn't yet stated. I don't know why more EUV layers would lead to worse.

 
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transformer

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Thanks, I missed that interview. So in other words, it's marketing BS, as @DemonCleaner so eloquently put it. No matter what, it'll be exciting to see what happens.
I don't think it's marketing BS. Both Sony and MS are playing the same game. They are trying to convey some information on the new consoles, eluding to their capabilities, without giving detailed technical information to their competitor. Both Sony and MS have stated something along the lines of: Zen2 CPU, Navi GPU, SSD, HW RayTracing. This is quite a bit of specific information and gives us a good idea of what to expect and not BS in my opinion.

As for the four times more powerful than Xbox one X number that MS threw out there, this makes a whole lot of sense and is realistically about where one should expect both of these consoles to be. Those focusing only on GPU TF and claiming this is bogus are being obtuse. Yes, there is no way a 24TF GPU is getting in either box. There is more to a console than a GPU. Zen2 CPU should be a massive improvement (>4x over CPU in Xbox), GPU+HW Ray Tracing will be ~2x GPU TF improvement over X plus the added capability of HW Ray Tracing(actual gains TBD as we know little here), and memory improvements will be significant as we know they are going with GDDR6 and SSD (virtual memory). I can easily see how this could add up to 4x power improvement on gaming, or other, benchmarks.
 
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DemonCleaner

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As for the four times more powerful than Xbox one X number that MS threw out there, this makes a whole lot of sense and is realistically about where one should expect both of these consoles to be. Those focusing only on GPU TF and claiming this is bogus are being obtuse. Yes, there is no way a 24TF GPU is getting in either box. There is more to a console than a GPU. Zen2 CPU should be a massive improvement (>4x over CPU in Xbox), GPU+HW Ray Tracing will be ~2x GPU TF improvement over X plus the added capability of HW Ray Tracing(actual gains TBD as we know little here), and memory improvements will be significant as we know they are going with GDDR6 and SSD (virtual memory). I can easily see how this could add up to 4x power improvement on gaming, or other, benchmarks.
in the video the hairy dude stated "from a pure processing perspective this is 4x more powerful than the xbox1x". there's no room for interpretation.



if they meant real world gaming performance, they should have said real world gaming performance
 
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Snake29

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One thing I've noticed them mentioning during the last few conferences is that they always use the words "at the silicon level" in regards to the partnership/collaboration with MS. Not sure what that implies, but it's interesting (to me).
 

transformer

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in the video the hairy dude stated "from a pure processing perspective this is 4x more powerful than the xbox1x". there's no room for interpretation.



if they meant real world gaming performance, they should have said real world gaming performance
So we are going to ignore what the head of Xbox game studios said about the 4x number? And how is it incongruent with the processing power statement? Games require processing power. The CPU processes, GPU processes, RT hardware will process, could be some other custom work in the APU to assist in processing. The processing power of the console, inclusive of ALL HW in the console, is 4x higher than Xbox one x.