I am asking because apparetly adding 20CUs is nothing and console makers will be having Navi 5900XT equivalent of them on 400mm2 chip with RT. Certainly, CERTAINLY, AMD could have made one of to cover higher GPU market since its rather easy and die size requirements are miniscule.
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ArabianPrynce
Member
This why this years navi is trash. N Negotiator brought up a good point on how the 7nm is immature and amd wanted first dips on 7nm while nvidia is waiting till next year for the 7nm to mature aka EUV.
SonGoku
Member
I asked this before, where is the info/source that connects Ariel with Sony and Gonzolo with Ariel?
Why would AMD break nda before their customers announcement?
You have to look at it from a business perspective, releasing a $600 big chip would devaluate their coming lineup and as i said AMD is likely preparing a big navi lineup for 7nm EUV 64-72-80CUs with their corresponding in between disabled options.
Redesigning a chip is expensive so it might not be worth the investment to port one chip to 7nm with poor yields (understocked)
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CyberPanda
Banned
Brad from Giantbomb said on the Bombcast that he heard from a Dev that both Scarlett and PS5 are extremely similar.
Pretends to be shocked. lol.
Pretends to be shocked. lol.
Negotiator
Member
AMD likely knows that there are suckers that will pay $500 for a mid-range 250mm2 GPU. The VFM PC hardware days are over.
How do you know that Navi 20 won't be a bigger, high-end chip with HW RT that will release sometime in 2020?
What people don't understand about AMD is that the PC gaming market is not their bread and butter anymore. Don't take my word for it, those Steam stats don't lie. It's very clear to me that they don't put a lot of effort in their PC GPUs (GCN was designed for HPC/OG consoles, Polaris was designed for Pro/X, Vega was designed for Apple and Navi was designed for Sony/MS). Navi with low CUs and high clocks seems like a bare minimum effort, maybe because they want to recoup console R&D costs from the PC market.
The reason they still release PC hardware is probably the same reason MS still releases consoles and the same reason Sony still releases smartphones, despite all of them having extremely reduced market shares. They gotta release something, even if it's not the best in class.
If people eat this up, you can surely expect an even more expensive Navi GPU next year.
Follow the leaks mate, ever since january they have been clear. ID nomenclature fits like a glow to this being Sony chip, not MS or Subor (they have their own specific naminf convention).
Also, Gonzalo referrences part of internal GPU ID that can be found in Ariel, but not in Arden.
I dont know, but I dont think AMD would be the one telling people "Hey we are chinese console manufacturer and we will have most powerful APU on the market containing Zen2 and Navi10 on single die."
Maybe, but you also have to look at it from business perspective regarding Sony and MS. Them releasing 8-9TF rated Navis with 8 core Zen2 CPU and gobs of RAM/SSD is more then enough to sustain great performances for 5-6yrs + relative profitability in light of node shrinking that is getting slower and more expensive then ever before.
And again, there are literally hundreds of sources on this, from semiconductor analyists, to AMDs Papermaster, to Nvidia and others, all saying "We are getting smaller and smaller jump in transistor count and performances, for bigger and bigger prices".
Nothing indicates Sony and MS are going for 500$ consoles and lose additional 100$ in process. Not one damn thing.
This is carbon copy of 2012 thread where everyone expecting 3-4TF beasts and we even got one 1.2TF POS on 363mm² die.
So why 5700xt isnt quite a bit smaller than 251mm?
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SonGoku
Member
Look at the estimates for 5700 i linked you
CUs take less than 50% die space its not a linear scale
Because AMD engineers, that are actually some of the best graphics engineers in the world, didnt know how to make their own GPU smaller so Sony and MS jump in to help them size it down for their own consoles.
Obviously AMD does not work on profit margines so 50-60mm² on 7nm nodes makes little difference to them.
You can also ask yourself the question I ask my self very offten.
Why is RSX580 231mm² on 16nm node, but PS4Pro is 321mm². Or, why is Pitcairn 212mm² in PC, but entire die takes up 348mm² in PS4.
This is from ProElites post on B3D :
DG1000FGF84HT-PS4.
DG1101SKF84HV-PS4.
DG1201SLF87HW-PS4 Pro.
DG1301SML87HY-PS4 Pro.
DG14__________ - ???.
DG15 ___________ - ???.
2G16002CE8JA2_32/10/10_13E9 - Gonzalo
ZG16702AE8JB2_32/10/18_13F8 - Gonzalo engineering sample
13E9 = Ariel https://pci-ids.ucw.cz/read/PC/1022/13e9
13E9 = Navi 10 Lite according to ChipHell post before all leaks. https://www.chiphell.com/thread-1945910-1-1.html
DG3001FEG84HR - Durango
DG4010T3G87E1 - Arlene SoC ??? Not sure what this is.
DG4001FYG87IA - XB1 S
1G5211T8A87E9 - Scorpio
DG02SRTBP4MFA - Subor Z
DG14/15 for Sony are missing. What if...what if these where "reserved" for another slim console?
forum.beyond3d.com
DG1000FGF84HT-PS4.
DG1101SKF84HV-PS4.
DG1201SLF87HW-PS4 Pro.
DG1301SML87HY-PS4 Pro.
DG14__________ - ???.
DG15 ___________ - ???.
2G16002CE8JA2_32/10/10_13E9 - Gonzalo
ZG16702AE8JB2_32/10/18_13F8 - Gonzalo engineering sample
13E9 = Ariel https://pci-ids.ucw.cz/read/PC/1022/13e9
13E9 = Navi 10 Lite according to ChipHell post before all leaks. https://www.chiphell.com/thread-1945910-1-1.html
DG3001FEG84HR - Durango
DG4010T3G87E1 - Arlene SoC ??? Not sure what this is.
DG4001FYG87IA - XB1 S
1G5211T8A87E9 - Scorpio
DG02SRTBP4MFA - Subor Z
DG14/15 for Sony are missing. What if...what if these where "reserved" for another slim console?
Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]
Looking at the benchmarks it appears to me the only card that's native 4k/60fps stable is 2080 ti (on current gen titles even), not even 2080 holds it that often and much less a 2070 tier console. The only games that are 4k/60 for a 2070 level ps5 are BF5 and Strange Brigade and the rest...
forum.beyond3d.com
ArabianPrynce
Member
What do you guys think of this?
Negotiator
Member
I certainly won't be shocked if they announce a hardware collaboration to reduce R&D/tape-out costs. I mean, why pay AMD & TSMC twice? Does it make (financial) sense anymore?
Maybe that's why they don't divulge Teraflop numbers just yet? Maybe they want us to think that they're still "competitors"? I'm having my doubts after the Azure collab news, lol.
Sony will surely want Azure blades to host streamable PS5 games and it wouldn't make much sense to manufacture 2 different APU products.
I wouldn't put it past them if Sony asked for Azure access and in exchange MS asked for access to Sony's secret sauce (Navi HW RT etc.) and maybe Lockhart was scrapped because of that.
All bets are off at this point...
Maybe because we still rely on multi-patterning for etching sub-10nm chips, but that is bound to change. EUV R&D by ASML took 12 years.
Nothing? Not even their PSN profits?
And this doesn't even include 2018 and 2019, when both Fortnite and Apex Legends flourished...
How can you be so sure that 2020 will be a repeat of 2013? Are the conditions the same?
Fixed that for you.
I've been here since 2011 and I'll be here in 2020 as well to enjoy the madness!
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Negotiator, we still got Jaguar CPUs and 60% less FLOPs in better console versus top AMD GPU, so it was certainly a shitty discovery.
We knew Durango had 8GB but we thought GDDR5 will not be available till end of the year. Certainly I will leave space for them to surprise us...with SSD speed, instead of RAM this time around so that everyone can then be
"Wow 2020 was great! Remember when they came up with SSD that loads game in 1s?"
Everyone will forget about 8-9TF by then...
We knew Durango had 8GB but we thought GDDR5 will not be available till end of the year. Certainly I will leave space for them to surprise us...with SSD speed, instead of RAM this time around so that everyone can then be
"Wow 2020 was great! Remember when they came up with SSD that loads game in 1s?"
Everyone will forget about 8-9TF by then...
vpance
Member
The situation surrounding the launch might be worse this time with the threat of 25% tariffs.
Joint statement from MS, Sony and Nintendo
That's almost a guarantee of no built in loss on retail prices. They have to insure themselves against that possibility.
Can't say I recall that being the case, outside of the MisterX type crew. I think a lot of people were hoping for around 2.5TF realistically.
SonGoku
Member
Reason i ask is because you brought it up and im wondering if its just hearsay on forums or you actually saw leaked documentation that links Ariel with gonzolo and sony
Right so why did you say AMD would had reported it before their own customer formal announcement?
It would be anemic barely anything would be left after 4k and rt resource hogs
$500 is all but confirmed, no word on the loss
Things are much different this time around:
- 7nm euv and 6nm availability on the near future
- Both console divisions have much more freedom this time around
- $500 retail price
You are missing the bigger picture
- Yields
- EUV
- 7nm transition strength is in the density increase not frequency
- 6nm
5700 die size estimate has already been provided as were the size of DCUs
No one here is claiming sony/ms are designing the chips (certainly not me) take that straw man elsewhere
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ArabianPrynce
Member
No, its not hersay, its very educated guess from "seasoned" AMD decoders. Might want to mail Sony and ask for official confirmation. You have entiere list of codenames and consoles few posts above. It was dug by Proelite actually.
And no, AMD shouldnt tell their investors who is gonna release their console next and what specs, but they do tell their investors if they have new semi custom chip customer. They did it for Subor and every other console manufacturer, there is no secret manufacturer that has top performance AMD APU in QS state at TSMC currently bar Sony and MS.
In any case, Im out, see you guys when some official news come.
And no, AMD shouldnt tell their investors who is gonna release their console next and what specs, but they do tell their investors if they have new semi custom chip customer. They did it for Subor and every other console manufacturer, there is no secret manufacturer that has top performance AMD APU in QS state at TSMC currently bar Sony and MS.
In any case, Im out, see you guys when some official news come.
Aaaand thats a wrap.
Negotiator
Member
Don't you think the Scorpio philosophy of making console hardware could be doable in 2013?
If MS had a 3TF console, Game Pass and 360 BC from day 1, things would have been a lot different this gen...
Don Mattrick (or maybe our lovely fat boy Ballmer?) couldn't think that far ahead and MS is still paying the price.
Kind of a bummer that US politics (Trump tariffs, 2020 elections) can affect console strategies for the rest of the world.
Still though, there are ways to get around those restrictions:
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/9537475/akrales_171025_2091_0010.jpg)
Nintendo starts producing new Switch models outside China to fend off trade war
The consoles failed to make an appearance at E3 but could launch soon
www.theverge.com
Imtjnotu
Member
It wouldnt duo to design choices they made. Xbone SOC was bigger then Scorpio. Little bit, but bigger, and yet MS shoot for performance crown with X.Don't you think the Scorpio philosophy of making console hardware could be doable in 2013?
If MS had a 3TF console, Game Pass and 360 BC from day 1, things would have been a lot different this gen...
Don Mattrick (or maybe our lovely fat boy Ballmer?) couldn't think that far ahead and MS is still paying the price.
Kind of a bummer that US politics (Trump tariffs, 2020 elections) can affect console strategies for the rest of the world.
Still though, there are ways to get around those restrictions:
Nintendo starts producing new Switch models outside China to fend off trade war
The consoles failed to make an appearance at E3 but could launch soon
PS4Pro is also smaller then original PS4. PS3 is bigger then both, but then again PS2 is bigger then PS3. You know how die sizes go for these companies?
Here :
PS2 (510mm²) > PS3 (470mm²) > PS4 (348mm²) > PS4Pro (321mm²) > PS5 ( what is more probable with more expensive node? Sudden turn or even smaller or at best similar size)
I hope you noticed the pattern. With every new console and new node, each generation that follows has smaller and smaller die size. This is not coincidence, its becoming more and more expensive, confirmed by entire industry bar few guys who want 13TF console.
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vpance
Member
Tariffs will bump that up to $499. Yikes
I feel like it won't happen though. It's good that all 3 came together to fight it. Still, it's just incredibly bad timing to have that hanging over the launch window.
Gamernyc78
Banned
SonGoku
Member
I saw the link but haven't seen anything connecting ariel with Sony
Codenames can be hoaxed, like
SpinningBirdKick
mentioned its a new twitter account.Did you check AMDs investor meetings on the last and current year to see if they announced a new semicustom partner? or if it is Subor final form there woulnt be need for a new announcement
Could be. But then again, we have a precedent from past and not once they where hoaxed.I saw the link but haven't seen anything connecting ariel with Sony
Codenames can be hoaxed, like
Actually I have and they did announce new customer before Subor was revealed, but last Quarter they didnt mention anything IIRC.
luca_29_bg
Member
:/
Negotiator
Member
I still don't see what's the benefit of weak sauce 8-9TF consoles that will supposedly target 4k 60 fps (or 1080p 120 fps for certain games such as PvP MP or PSVR), unless they're uber cheap (certainly not $499!).
It's a mistake that's going to haunt us until 2030, or possibly even longer than that (since AAA game dev cycles have been getting bigger with every new gen).
IMHO, it would be a bigger mistake than 8th gen Jaguar CPUs. Why? Because Jaguar was at least a necessary evil to force devs to finally embrace multi-threading (which will pay huge dividends with Zen 2).
What's so hard to understand that I'm talking about Scorpio philosophy and not Xbone (TV TV TV) philosophy?
3TF APU on 28nm (same die size) was doable. No eSRAM, no DDR3, no Kinect.
The trend in the industry in general is to integrate separate chips. That's why.
Back in the day, consoles like Saturn had a lot more chips than today and even PCs had discrete sound cards, discrete IDE controllers, discrete MPEG-2 cards.
Having a single APU chip reduces costs vs having 2 big discrete chips (CPU + GPU) and it makes programming easier (HSA + hUMA). It's a good philosophy for closed proprietary boxes (not so much for PCs).
I couldn't agree more with you.
There are a lot more countries in the world and their salaries are worse than US... why should they pay the price of US policies?
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Gamernyc78
Banned
LOL oh boy here we go another 40 pgs of shit before everyone calms down and puts their fanboy pom poms away
Imtjnotu
Member
id rather have better performance than puddle reflections. i think Raytracing right now is overrated to the max. just give us better indoor lighting and call it a day for both systems
Gamernyc78
Banned
The SSD bit sounds right as Sony made it a centerpiece of their soft reveal and seem to be doubling down on tht.
SonGoku
Member
I can accept the possibility as much as the gonzalo codename bothers me (doubt sony would call their chip that) and it being Navi10 dosnt make sense either
But its a posibility as there are no certainties. What i take issue with is treating it as some confirmed leak
Where would one check that out? its not necearly from last quarter gonzolo begun much earlier, maybe subor final form
CyberPanda
Banned
Even Reee shot down this tweet, and said its just MisterXMedia level's of BS.
SlimySnake
Flashless at the Golden Globes
Hardware RT and SSD plus a powerful CPU that is selling for $350 in a couple of weeks proves that we are already in uncharted territory. A few months ago, everyone laughed at the notion of SSD AND RT hardware in a console. I dont know how you can say that its a carbon copy when by all indications both Sony and MS are going for a $499 machine. The $499 MS console wont have the $75 Kinect. It wont have the ESRAM on the APU die that made it larger and weaker than the PS4 GPU. The console is designed around gaming. Sony will have an additional $100 to spend than they did last gen so no, it is ok to expect a little bit more than we did last gen.
i mean its ok to be conservative with GPU tflops in light of recent evidence, but mocking users for being more optimistic is bizarre considering we finally have both manufacturers aiming for 'premium' $499 consoles. Especially after SSDs and Hardware RT has already been confirmed.
Negotiator
Member
Sounds like Sony has more FP32 raw power, while MS has more RT cores.
MS said 40x improvement, while Sony is 19x (2GB/s vs PCIe 4.0 4GB/s?):
PS5 Loading Times Will Be 19x Faster Than PS4
This week, Sony Interactive Entertainment's Mark Cerny officially confirmed the PlayStation 5, and [...]
What gives? They need to tell us their baseline metric.
SonGoku
Member
Which is why i doubt Sony is going with a small chip
You would have through "AMA" with Iisa Su that happens each quarter when results come, I do remember early 2018 ending up Subor.
Burrito Bandito
Banned
our mess is china literally stealing our IPs and tech. i really dont care one iota if you in europe have to shell out a few more euros for a game console if it means china stops getting away with this bullshit.
you could always manufacture your own console in europe i guess
Negotiator
Member
Can someone explain what's the point of these PC-centric benchmarks (DX11 et al) in a closed proprietary box?
What does Sony (or even MS) have to gain from generic benchmarks? Bragging rights on the internet, like it's a teenager who bought his first PC?
I honestly don't get it.
SonGoku
Member
To get an idea how it compares to available GPUs
Negotiator
Member
Then maybe you shouldn't have outsourced your manufacturing facilities to China (America started it first and Europe followed suit), all while destroying the middle class that worked in factories.
It's too late now, China has become too strong because we allowed this to happen for so many decades.
Negotiator
Member
I still don't get it. Console hardware punches above its weight when they utilize low-level APIs.
Even this hypothetical Gonzalo APU will be closer to an RTX 2080 with low-level coding.
Gamernyc78
Banned
Alot of tweets and supposed leaks were shot down for this gen and funny enough a gd amount of the early leaks came to be true. I treat all the leaks and shoot downs the same just more potential info to add to the pile.
xool
Member
wtf. I hate to be schoolteacher but ..when they start with "speculation" and then quote die sizes to 2 decimal places and yields to a tenth of a percent, followed by stuff like this :
(D0 = 0.2, Yield 68.75%, 202 good dies, 92 defective dies (Some salvageable - CU redundancy))
I have to question their sanity - how is it speculation when then quote number of defective dies on a chip .. is this a leak, or pure fantasy ??
(also PS4 Portable with Zen 2 cores - pls stop)
Interesting for a minute but one of the wierder posts I've seen. At least they were polite.
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ethomaz
Banned
CUs are about 60% of the chip... others parts like ROPs, memory controller, etc take the rest of the space.
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SpinningBirdKick
Banned
Ballpark.
- 80 CU die - no point breaking the 64 limit for a small amount
- 4 shader engines - seems optimal amount to balance active/disabled ratio
- 1 dual CU disabled per shader engine - more acceptable chips per wafer
- 72 CUs active - beast
- clocked at 1550 - more power efficient
- 7nm EUV - THE reason to delay from the initial 2019 target?
- 14.2 (Navi) TF - the magic number
Negotiator
Member
But a MS executive said that Project Scarlett "eats monsters for breakfast"... was he bluffing or what?
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
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