• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

|OT| Next-Gen PS5 & XSX |OT| Speculation/Analysis/Leaks Thread

Garani

Member
Oct 22, 2014
494
1,709
545
Clearly you don't know what happened. Microsoft purchased Nokia's phone division and then commenced with the immediate integration of their Windows Phone OS and a concerted push into the mobile space. They weren't successful, no arguments there, but if you think they sat around once they made the purchase, then you don't understand what happened.


This post is laughably wrong. How do you actually think businesses function?
To sign off on a $7.5b deal, do you think the Microsoft CEO looked at the proposal - which in reality would need to include a demonstrable, proven, data-researched track to profitability - and said "Sure, it'll make a great headline and really stick it to Sony - we'll figure out the specifics later". No. Of course not - that's fucking insane. The acquisition proposal floated internally at Microsoft prior included the exact nature of the software that would be released - platforms, estimated install base, estimated sales, and projected revenue - to demonstrate that the deal made sense. Business 101. Microsoft haven't been in business at the top of the heap for 50 years because they operate on the kind of logic you seem to think they do.
Microsoft made the decision on what to do with their new acquisition before they even had the green light on the purchase. That's the only actual truth. And if you think Microsoft - Microsoft - are going to share something they spent a fortune on, you must have been sleeping during their anti-trust hearings. Microsoft bought Zenimax to bolster their gaming division, not Sony's. Any thinking otherwise is delusional. Microsoft's MO - buy up established players in the industry they want to dominate, and let their cheque book do the work.
"But - but - but the profits!". Microsoft doesn't need PlayStation to be profitable. As I said - if that's your thinking, you must be waiting for that Spider-man Miles Morales Xbox Series X announcement to arrive at any moment... maybe Sony will be making the announcement at the Xbox launch event! Marvel is the biggest money maker in entertainment right now - Sony wouldn't leave money on the table by not selling to all the millions of Spider-man fans at Xbox. Right?
I mostly agree. You are right about the business plan part and that they are doing it for the money (heck, who isn't?). What you, and I, don't know is the content of that business plan: we simply don't know what are the fugures that make it work, and all the variables that they took in consideration.

Personally I expect Zenimax to stop publishing games for the PS, but that will come with new products that will come out in 2022/23 onwards. Whatever has budget already spent/has deals already signed, will be respected simply because it would screw up all numbers.

XSX 12tf (sustained) - X1X 6tf = 6tf increase
PS5 8tf (actual) - PS4 Pro 4.2tf = 3.8tf increase

the gulf just keeps widening. Honestly glad I couldn’t get that PS5 preorder now that I’ve done the math
What can I add that others didn't? You are spreading simple disinformation about PS5s tf numbers. And actually, if they were true, I would just be quite given that, from what we have been shown, games seems to look significantly better on PS5 than on XSX.
 
Last edited:
D

Deleted member 775630

Unconfirmed Member
Personally I expect Zenimax to stop publishing games for the PS, but that will come with new products that will come out in 2022/23 onwards. Whatever has budget already spent/has deals already signed, will be respected simply because it would screw up all numbers.
I agree, deals that are already signed will be respected. But do we know how quickly things like these are signed for huge 3rd party games? For example Starfield can be expected 2021/2022 (really hope 2021), what needs to be signed? Would a marketing deal already be signed now if it doesn't launch within the next 12 months?
 

FunkMiller

Member
Aug 14, 2014
3,959
15,875
820
Amazon Prime is not a game service. It gives cheaper shipping and movie streaming. Why compare it to Game pass? Some hate MS so much that don't want to give them any credit in the game space. No matter how much some here dislike them Game Pass is successful and its doing better than its competitors. That may change but the competition needs to improve their services first.
Look my friend, I know you’re an Xbox fan, and want to think that Msft have the head start, and the best position moving forward in terms of leveraging subscription gaming, but you do need to face a little bit of reality when thinking about how Amazon will compete with GamePass.

Amazon Prime is an everything service. That’s the point of it. Free shipping, one day delivery, movies, TV, cheaper prices, cheaper books, free books, grocery shopping, Amazon Music, Amazon wardrobe and, most pertinent: prime GAMING. You do know they own Twitch, right? The platform that is currently the most effective games advertising method in the world?

The company has spent decades learning how to bring customers into the Amazon system, and then sell them their products in the most efficient manner possible. They will see Amazon Luna as just another way to both bring even more people into the Amazon system, and give existing customers yet another ‘thing’ they get on Amazon Prime (probably for free at some point).

15 million GamePass subscribers is a great achievement, and it’s a very good service. But it’s going to go up against 150 million Prime subscribers, billions of Amazon account holders, and AWS - by far and away the most established cloud streaming tech.

Brace yourself.

The same goes for fans of Sony, because Luna will impact them too.
 
D

Deleted member 775630

Unconfirmed Member
Look my friend, I know you’re an Xbox fan, and want to think that Msft have the head start, and the best position moving forward in terms of leveraging subscription gaming, but you do need to face a little bit of reality when thinking about how Amazon will compete with GamePass.

Amazon Prime is an everything service. That’s the point of it. Free shipping, one day delivery, movies, TV, cheaper prices, cheaper books, free books, grocery shopping, Amazon Music, Amazon wardrobe and, most pertinent: prime GAMING. You do know they own Twitch, right? The platform that is currently the most effective games advertising method in the world?

The company has spent decades learning how to bring customers into the Amazon system, and then sell them their products in the most efficient manner possible. They will see Amazon Luna as just another way to both bring even more people into the Amazon system, and give existing customers yet another ‘thing’ they get on Amazon Prime (probably for free at some point).

15 million GamePass subscribers is a great achievement, and it’s a very good service. But it’s going to go up against 150 million Prime subscribers, billions of Amazon account holders, and AWS - by far and away the most established cloud streaming tech.

Brace yourself.

The same goes for fans of Sony, because Luna will impact them too.
Difference here is that Game Pass Ultimate (includes xCloud) is $15 for just Game Pass Ultimate, while Amazon Prime is $13 for everything of Amazon Prime, right? People are already saying that the Game Pass business model might not work, how is Amazon then ever going to make this work WHILE also paying the whole industry more?
 

Killer Sakoman

Gold Member
Mar 17, 2020
1,216
4,182
480
Saudi Arabia
Look my friend, I know you’re an Xbox fan, and want to think that Msft have the head start, and the best position moving forward in terms of leveraging subscription gaming, but you do need to face a little bit of reality when thinking about how Amazon will compete with GamePass.

Amazon Prime is an everything service. That’s the point of it. Free shipping, one day delivery, movies, TV, cheaper prices, cheaper books, free books, grocery shopping, Amazon Music, Amazon wardrobe and, most pertinent: prime GAMING. You do know they own Twitch, right? The platform that is currently the most effective games advertising method in the world?

The company has spent decades learning how to bring customers into the Amazon system, and then sell them their products in the most efficient manner possible. They will see Amazon Luna as just another way to both bring even more people into the Amazon system, and give existing customers yet another ‘thing’ they get on Amazon Prime (probably for free at some point).

15 million GamePass subscribers is a great achievement, and it’s a very good service. But it’s going to go up against 150 million Prime subscribers, billions of Amazon account holders, and AWS - by far and away the most established cloud streaming tech.

Brace yourself.

The same goes for fans of Sony, because Luna will impact them too.
Just because they have 150 million user doesn't mean their gaming will succeed. How many of these subscribers care about gaming?
Also wasn't this supposed to be the same for google who has billion and billion of gmail and youtube users?
 
  • Like
Reactions: SSfox

FunkMiller

Member
Aug 14, 2014
3,959
15,875
820
Difference here is that Game Pass Ultimate (includes xCloud) is $15 for just Game Pass Ultimate, while Amazon Prime is $13 for everything of Amazon Prime, right? People are already saying that the Game Pass business model might not work, how is Amazon then ever going to make this work WHILE also paying the whole industry more?
Well, I’m not one of those people, so I’d disagree with that opinion. Game streaming is the future, whether we like it or not.
 
  • Thoughtful
Reactions: sircaw

geordiemp

Member
Sep 5, 2013
11,469
22,723
1,010
UK
So some speculation from an old tweet


Note what Matt is teasing here, can intersetion engines calculate bounce across CUs ? You can only do that if CUs are sharing more information.

Is this an L1 infnity cache tease or more to do with ps5 custom cache handling ?

There is more to be learned, and some people already know the answer and we dont, so frustrating.

allot of Post processing techniques performance is about speed, caches and sharing data across Cus. Elog Elog this is for you.
 
Last edited:

FunkMiller

Member
Aug 14, 2014
3,959
15,875
820
Just because they have 150 million user doesn't mean their gaming will succeed. How many of these subscribers care about gaming?
Also wasn't this supposed to be the same for google who has billion and billion of gmail and youtube users?
There are over 2.5 billion people in the world who play video games. That’s 35 percent of the human population. 35 percent of 150 million prime subscribers is over 50 million people. And that’s just Prime subscribers. Amazon can and will advertise at everyone with an Amazon account who has purchased video game stuff from them. That probably includes you.

Please stop bringing Google up. They were a completely different proposition, with a far weaker cloud base, and far less integration and expertise in direct customer selling.

Clarification: I’m not necessarily happy about any of this, but it’s a bit foolish to stick my head in the sand and pretend things are never going to change. Amazon are going to cause a lot of changes in video gaming. Some good, some bad.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: SynTha1

Garani

Member
Oct 22, 2014
494
1,709
545
I agree, deals that are already signed will be respected. But do we know how quickly things like these are signed for huge 3rd party games? For example Starfield can be expected 2021/2022 (really hope 2021), what needs to be signed? Would a marketing deal already be signed now if it doesn't launch within the next 12 months?
Think in terms of development cycles, not just deals signed. If a game comes out in 2021 then you have already spent 3/4 of your budget (AAA do have a 4 years development lifecycle). Why would you throw it away? I mean, you can, of course, but the reason must be hugely compelling. Add to that that the actual deal will not be finalized before 2021 anyway, I believe that you'll see anything that was planned to come out in 2021 on both consoles.

After that it will all depends on how much money has already been invested. So the rule of thumb should be: the farther you are from release date, the more plausible that it will be an XBox exclusive.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: thelastword

blly155

13 year old console warrior. Put me on ignore.
Aug 3, 2014
12,294
5,884
845
i've got both Xbox Series X + PS5 pre ordered.

Getting Cyberpunk/Watch Dogs for Xbox + Demon's Souls for PS5.
 
D

Deleted member 775630

Unconfirmed Member
Think in terms of development cycles, not just deals signed. If a game comes out in 2021 then you have already spent 3/4 of your budget (AAA do have a 4 years development lifecycle). Why would you throw it away? I mean, you can, of course, but the reason must be hugely compelling. Add to that that the actual deal will not be finalized before 2021 anyway, I believe that you'll see anything that was planned to come out in 2021 on both consoles.

After that it will all depends on how much money has already been invested. So the rule of thumb should be: the farther you are from release date, the more plausible that it will be an XBox exclusive.
Do you think a lot of time is already invested in tuning it for the specific platforms? I would think that they are just developing to have a basic version that will only be optimized to specific platforms in the last years. I could be wrong, not a game developer.

Well, I’m not one of those people, so I’d disagree with that opinion. Game streaming is the future, whether we like it or not.
Yeah but I mean that if you are going to charge less, and also need that money to provide all the other services within Prime, there isn't a lot of margin left anymore. Knowing this industry, and it's business model, not so sure if it's so viable for them.
 

M1chl

Member
Dec 25, 2019
6,750
10,900
790
Prague, Czech Republic
So some speculation from an old tweet


Note what Matt is teasing here, can intersetion engines calculate bounce across CUs ? You can only do that if CUs are sharing more information.

Is this an L1 infnity cache tease or more to do with ps5 custom cache handling ?

There is more to be learned, and some people already know the answer and we dont, so frustrating.

allot of Post processing techniques performance is about speed, caches and sharing data across Cus. Elog Elog this is for you.
Why is not this Matt guy in here, shame he is just a Reee memeber.... I guess at least we have our VFX master
 

DrDamn

Member
Feb 19, 2013
1,041
1,920
605
The first test for crossgen games in PC will tomorrow with some of the first reviews/benchmark of Watch Dogs Legion.

Edit: or today
Watch Dogs just looks pretty awful to me. Like a remaster of a much older game where old assets are just rendered at a higher resolution and certain effects are just slapped over the scene to make it look "better" without any artistic direction. The prevalence of puddles is clearly a next gen feature, but they've even got them under cover here :D
 

ToadMan

Report me for trolling MS/Xbox threads > 06/20
Dec 2, 2018
1,646
6,697
635
What does successful mean to you? MS managed to outsell both the Gamecube and the Wii U over a much more well known and dare I say successful Nintendo. Just because they didn't outsell the PlayStation doesn't mean they failed but if you are just fanboying I agree with you MS never had a successful presence in consumer electronics. Like I said some people just hate MS. That's fine but it doesn't change reality.
I’m referring to Sony’s other products in Media, Music, Photography and even Phones. MS has tried to break into (some of) those markets and bowed out due to lack of success.

Console-wise I don’t think Nintendo is competing for the same market as Sony and MS. But if you want to call it a success that Xbox managed to outsell two under performing Nintendo consoles be my guest.

Ultimately the growth MS achieved from XBox wouldn’t be a called a success given it was negative in the transition from 360 to xbone.
 

geordiemp

Member
Sep 5, 2013
11,469
22,723
1,010
UK
Why is not this Matt guy in here, shame he is just a Reee memeber.... I guess at least we have our VFX master
Wrong Matt, this was the ps5 principal engineer, now at Roblox, he know exactly whats in Ps5.

So look again at the tweet he is teasing, and go look at L1 infinity cache....and then come back.

The Matt at Ree is a different Matt
 
Last edited:

jasondefaoite

Member
Jan 18, 2020
307
1,232
325
I agree, deals that are already signed will be respected. But do we know how quickly things like these are signed for huge 3rd party games? For example Starfield can be expected 2021/2022 (really hope 2021), what needs to be signed? Would a marketing deal already be signed now if it doesn't launch within the next 12 months?
Star field and 2021?

The only way that happens is it looks like Halo. As in unpolished. Perfect for Gamepass. They can update it as they go. Follow the star citizen model.

I honestly think it’s 2023 for that game.
 
  • Like
  • LOL
Reactions: Riky and Mr Moose
Feb 27, 2013
4,038
3,297
810
Ohio
No? I don't see that Shinobi follows that guy. In fact, nobody i follow actually follows him. Still trying to find out how this guy got that much followers in the first place.
I swear to god just the other day when i clicked on this astal profile it showed followed by Shinobi. I guess he unfollowed him after Shinobi discovered that Astal a legendary fud master?
 
Last edited:

THE:MILKMAN

Member
Mar 31, 2006
6,277
4,437
1,535
Midlands, UK
Unboxing in ~2 hours ?
Ore 13:00 - PS5: unboxing in diretta!

Like I said last night after Geoff's Tweet, Sony are coordinating as many as the worlds game press so all can do it at the same time. The only disappointment and frankly silly thing about this is we already saw far more of the PS5 with the teardown than we will see of it today. But people like unboxings so they are doing it.
 

pasterpl

Member
Feb 8, 2020
1,396
2,551
415
15 million GamePass subscribers is a great achievement, and it’s a very good service. But it’s going to go up against 150 million Prime subscribers, billions of Amazon account holders, and AWS - by far and away the most established cloud streaming tech.
are you seriously comparing gamepass subscriber numbers to user base of all Amazon properties? This lacks any logical sense.
 

sandkiller

Member
Feb 22, 2013
582
511
640
Europe
Like I said last night after Geoff's Tweet, Sony are coordinating as many as the worlds game press so all can do it at the same time. The only disappointment and frankly silly thing about this is we already saw far more of the PS5 with the teardown than we will see of it today. But people like unboxings so they are doing it.
Unclear if it's just unboxing or also turning it on and going through the UI etc...
 

THE:MILKMAN

Member
Mar 31, 2006
6,277
4,437
1,535
Midlands, UK
Unclear if it's just unboxing or also turning it on and going through the UI etc...
I assume the NA game press/influencers have pre-recorded their unboxings over the weekend (who would believe they left them undone all this time!?) and the RoTW game press just receiving PS5's today will have just a few hours to record theirs. I doubt they would do this live. Also that USB stick included probably had strict instructions of what/when to do everything and other do's/don't just like happened with XSX.

All very deliberate and controlled.