Nintendo FY22-23 Q1 Earnings report, Hardware 3.43m, LTD 111.08m.

Deerock71

Member
There are chances because NSW is going to have stronger tail sales:



taken from https://installbaseforum.com
It is a shame the PS4 is charted here and not the PS2.
 

Soapbox Killer

Grand Nagus
I don’t think it’s silly to say that the ps2 is in danger of being overtaken.


The Switch will have to have a helluva End of Life to sell as much as the PS2/Nintendo Ds (I think they are only a few hundred thousand apart).

I don't think Breath of the Wild 2 will move the needle. Also PS2 was sold for over 12 years and if I am not mistaken, still selling Fifa games when the PS4 was released. Of course that is antidotal but it speaks to just how much of a juggernaut the PS2 was. I doubt they will be selling New Switch games in 2030 but who the hell knows.
 

Woopah

Member
The Switch will have to have a helluva End of Life to sell as much as the PS2/Nintendo Ds (I think they are only a few hundred thousand apart).

I don't think Breath of the Wild 2 will move the needle. Also PS2 was sold for over 12 years and if I am not mistaken, still selling Fifa games when the PS4 was released. Of course that is antidotal but it speaks to just how much of a juggernaut the PS2 was. I doubt they will be selling New Switch games in 2030 but who the hell knows.
If Switch can get 3 more years of good sales it will pass the DS and PS2. It'll have a longer take than the DS and it's selling faster than the PS2.

So it's certainly possible but not guaranteed.
 

Astral Dog

Member
Ring Fit Adventure is a freaking BEAST! brilliant idea, they should develop a whole Fitness JRPG lineup lol

Kirby and the Forgotten land gonna sell 5 million this year👌 while not Mario/Pokemon/Zelda numbers, its quite impressive and has expanded the fanbase for the pink blob after so many years.

Not so sure how to read Switch Sports, on one hand of course its making loads of money 💰 but i was expecting somewhere around 10 million tbh, its difficult to compare since the original was a huge event and helped sell the Wii system, but also was given for free so 🤷🏻‍♂️ just wait and see how much it keeps selling during the holidays!
 
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Soapbox Killer

Grand Nagus
If Switch can get 3 more years of good sales it will pass the DS and PS2. It'll have a longer take than the DS and it's selling faster than the PS2.

So it's certainly possible but not guaranteed.
Do you believe that the current Switch will be sold with...whatever the next version, if thats "Switch Pro" or " Switch 2" for a long period of time? 3 years of good sales for a 6 plus year old console is 7 - 10 million a year, which is completely plausible but that would still leave them 20+ million short.


You are right that it could happen. Switch could be at 125-130, This time next year and that would be really interesting.
 
Nintendo has done extremely well with the Switch since 2017. That said, Nintendo Switch has clearly peaked and is now steadily on the downhill trajectory. The tail imo, will be shorter than many think. The reason being, is they will announce a sequel or Pro that is an iterative upgrade.

Honestly, I am slightly underwhelmed with total lifetime sales. Primarily due to the nature of Switch. Most people see a gaming handheld or console or hybrid. I see an "iPod". Something revolutionary and a disruptive device that is also a "personal consumption device". Something that everyone should have and be in every household.

Despite the PS5 & Xbox Series X being powerful machines, I see them as eyesores and an electricity hog. IMO, this idea contributes to one of the primary reasons the vide game industry is currently crashing. (there are many reasons, but this is one). Better graphics and faster load times, and more "sameness" isn't always the answer.

Despite all the reports that new Switch hardware is 2024 or 2025...I am confident it is 2023. With the Botw2, Bomberman R 2, Final Fantasy Crisis Core, and leaks or ESRB ratings for Batman trilogy, Borderlands 3, and the that very detailed 4chan post talking about Tekken 7 and RE-make2 coming to Nintendo. In addition to MS and Phil Spencer saying in 2023 that COD (since there is no new COD in 2023) would come to Nintendo also raises eyebrows, as well as WWE saying in a financial Q&A new games were coming to all PS5/Xbox Series, and Nintendo.

On top of Nintendo being so quiet this year and refusing to discuss future hardware. Which in the past they have flatly denied. This year, it was just "no comment". Regardless if it is "Switch PRO" or "Switch 2". Something is coming!!!

I have no doubt in my mind new hardware is next year. Even with Supply Chain issues that they are clearly experiencing. I wonder though, that since nintendo was immune to "supply chain" issues in 2021 and into the beginning of 2022 (did they have that much stockpiled inventory?) or have they split their supply chain to start quietly working on new hardware, while still making existing Switch hardware? This would be extremely difficult but not impossible.

I do believe we will have a better understanding of Nintendo's direction this Fall. 2023...believe!
 
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Deerock71

Member
Despite all the reports that new Switch hardware is 2024 or 2025...I am confident it is 2023. With the Botw2, Bomberman R 2, Final Fantasy Crisis Core, and leaks or ESRB ratings for Batman trilogy, Borderlands 3, and the that very detailed 4chan post talking about Tekken 7 and RE-make2 coming to Nintendo. In addition to MS and Phil Spencer saying in 2023 that COD (since there is no new COD in 2023) would come to Nintendo also raises eyebrows, as well as WWE saying in a financial Q&A new games were coming to all PS5/Xbox Series, and Nintendo.
This right here is a succinct summary of why I'm bullish on the Switch's chances of sitting atop the sales throne. If Nintendo can snag an end-of-life CoD and (potentially) one Madden, then that's going to open the Switch up to all new blue oceans of buyers. Couple it with a price cut and holiday bundles, and I'm thinking Nintendo's sitting in the catbird seat.
 

Bragr

Member
This right here is a succinct summary of why I'm bullish on the Switch's chances of sitting atop the sales throne. If Nintendo can snag an end-of-life CoD and (potentially) one Madden, then that's going to open the Switch up to all new blue oceans of buyers. Couple it with a price cut and holiday bundles, and I'm thinking Nintendo's sitting in the catbird seat.
They are already in the catbird seat, with their first-party and Pokemon games selling like donuts. Why on Earth would they mess with that?

No way we will see any new hardware in 2023. Nintendo is waiting for affordable powerful hardware and chip supply, 2024 is the very earliest, IMO.
 

Deerock71

Member
They are already in the catbird seat, with their first-party and Pokemon games selling like donuts. Why on Earth would they mess with that?

No way we will see any new hardware in 2023. Nintendo is waiting for affordable powerful hardware and chip supply, 2024 is the very earliest, IMO.
We're not arguing. ;)
 

Woopah

Member
Do you believe that the current Switch will be sold with...whatever the next version, if thats "Switch Pro" or " Switch 2" for a long period of time? 3 years of good sales for a 6 plus year old console is 7 - 10 million a year, which is completely plausible but that would still leave them 20+ million short.


You are right that it could happen. Switch could be at 125-130, This time next year and that would be really interesting.
Yes I believe that will be the case. They might end production of Switch and price drop the OLED, but at the very least they'll sell the OLED and the Lite for a little while after the next model is announced, and quite a few games will be cross gen.

Nintendo is on track to hit it's 21 million target for this fiscal year, meaning it would be about 130 million by the end of March 2023. If it sells 15 million the year to March 2024 and then 10 million the following year, it will reach PS2 numbers.

It's possible but not guaranteed.
 
I am dumbfounded that Madden has not yet shown up. In some form.

I do believe it must be coming, even with EA's strained relationship with Nintendo in 2017.

Common sense would indicate that the NFL would want to be represented to a large contingent of gamers on the Nintendo platform. Even if it is an HD version of the Wii game. Just for representation sake. The same argument can also be had for the NHL.

The other conversation beginning to take place, for the first time in several generations, people who own "Nintendo system" that may be the ONLY system they own. So, I find the argument that well "Nintendo gamers own other consoles" to not hold as much merit as it used to.
 
They are already in the catbird seat, with their first-party and Pokemon games selling like donuts. Why on Earth would they mess with that?

No way we will see any new hardware in 2023. Nintendo is waiting for affordable powerful hardware and chip supply, 2024 is the very earliest, IMO.
A very small part of me thinks due to supply chain Nintendo could launch the Switch Pro or 2 this November! November 2022. Using 3rd parties to push the hardware.

Updates to existing 1st party software like Mario Rabbids 2, splatoon 3, Xenoblade 3, Bayo 3, Pokemon, Switch Sports, etc. Then couple that with the big 3rd party titles...liked the leaked Skyrim Anniversary edition, maybe some of the titles mentioned above. Maybe Persona 5R getting a patch boost.

Then in 2023 BOTW2, new Fire Emblem, COD, etc.

The reason for letting 3rd parties carry the launch is to let the "early adopters" get the Switch Pro or 2 prior to BOTW2 coming out, when it would get a massive mainstream push.
 
Always puts a smile on my face. Say what you want about Nintendo, but when the planets align, they just go wild...and that's good. Contrary to a behemoth like MS, they have nothing to fall back on, so it is great to see them thrive in this industry. The numbers are healthy, the Switch might very well topple the PS2 as the best selling platform yet...
My only concern is how they will negotiate the post-Switch cycle. I trust them, however, to come up with something that will be highly appealing to most.
What like the time with the wiii u right lol, they are just as likely to mess it up,

it will be very interesting in what they will do, will they play it safe just go with small upgrade in power, and let the software do the talking, will they go big upgrade which means big price increase, can’t wait to find out
 

Oberstein

Member
Ring Fit Adventure is a freaking BEAST! brilliant idea, they should develop a whole Fitness JRPG lineup lol

I don't think Nintendo expected it to be so successful. You'd think Nintendo Switch Sports would do better... well, it'll never reach 14 million even if it's a long seller.

I wouldn't be surprised if a big DLC/sequel was in the works.

In any case, hopes for a Switch 2 are fading for 2023.
Will Nintendo release Zelda Botw 2 without being cross-gen? A bold move!
 
Nintendo's earnings report is out in just under a week, anyone have any predictions for hardware or Splatoon 3 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3?
 

Robb

Gold Member
Nintendo's earnings report is out in just under a week, anyone have any predictions for hardware or Splatoon 3 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3?
Around 3M Switches seems like a fairly safe bet to me.

I’m mostly curious about Splatoon 3 though considering it did 3.5M the first three days in Japan alone. I have no idea what to guess for that one.
 
will have a think, i think hardware units will be down quite a bit based off the Sony/MS numbers.
Well it lost a couple of NPD's to PS5, however bar the UK it is still winning in Europe and in Japan Famitsu has Switch at 1.18 m for the quarter and for the previous quarter Nintendo Switch just shipped 720K for Japan so possibly around 460K up. Also in Q1 the "Other" region was painfully low at just 330K and Switch regular quarter sales are usually 600K for "Other", so the "Other" region should see a decent increase as well. Last Quarter was 3.43 million globally and I'm thinking quarter to quarter it will be slightly down in NA, Flat in Europe, significantly up in Japan and Significantly up in Other. I'm going with 4.19 million for hardware. Software was 41.41 million last quarter and with Splatoon 3 helping out I think around 48 million for Software is possible.
 
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Nautilus

Member
Around 3M Switches seems like a fairly safe bet to me.

I’m mostly curious about Splatoon 3 though considering it did 3.5M the first three days in Japan alone. I have no idea what to guess for that one.
Considering the japanese sales, 10 millions seems a safe bet.
 
I’m mostly curious about Splatoon 3 though considering it did 3.5M the first three days in Japan alone. I have no idea what to guess for that one.
For Splatoon 3 I'm thinking 9.25 million with over half coming from Japan, we know the sales outside of Japan were not crazy and only slightly up from Splatoon 2 factoring in the higher digital sales in 2022 compared to 2017. I also think Splatoon 3 can have decent legs for the holiday and add at least another 3 million.
 

Topher

Gold Member
Imagine, a lot of top journalists and insiders were talking seriously about Nintendo stopping making consoles and becoming a third-party and mobile developer. Mad to think back on.

It looked pretty grim there for a while outside the 3DS.
 

Jsisto

Member
The Bayonetta series is a 450m dollar franchise, it’s sad that Nintendo as a whole can’t seem to top the numbers of one franchise.
 

00_Zer0

Member
When the Switch 2 arrives at $299 they'll drop the Switch OLED to $199, drop the normal Switch and sell the Switch Lite for $99. Good bye PS2 record.
My guess is that Switch 2 won't come in at 299.99 with this economy, more like 349.99 to 399.99. I'm shocked that Steam Deck was able to get at a 399.99 price range and it can run today's games at a lower resolution and framerate just fine and most last gen games and older work amazing on it. The tech they use in their next cosole/portable will need to be PS4 levels just like Steam Deck along with Nvidia DLSS technology. Hope their next console/portable doesn't go too gimmicky. I would like to see them do good two generations in a row. Can't wait till they reveal what's next.
 
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