Nintendo lowers forecast from ¥55B profit to ¥25B loss [3DS 18M->13.5; WiiU 9M->2.8M]

Jun 9, 2012
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The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.
Nintendo is completely irrelevant in half of the market they are invested in. Financially, no one is arguing they are about to go bankrupt, but a company can be in awful shape in other ways than pure cash at hand.
 
Jan 4, 2005
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Newsflash: The sky at Nintendo is falling. This will be 3 consecutive years of operating losses, and shareholders are losing a tremendous amount of value in the form of lost dividends and a share price that has tumbled significantly since 2007 and will only fall farther based on these projections. They will only take so much before revolting. Nintendo itself might never go bankrupt, although I think you do not fully grasp how fast they can burn through their cash, it's not only via profit and loss that those funds evaporate, there is also internal reinvestment. But Nintendo will not exist as we know them without a significant turnaround.
Yeah. I don't know how public companies work in Japan compared to the US, but could a hedge fund take a stake in Nintendo and try and cause or change in management?

ie. Dan Loeb and Yahoo and hiring Marissa Mayer and keeping his people on the board? Or him trying to get Sony to break up?

Is it possible? Sony is a Japanese company but it also trades on the NYSE. Nintendo doesn't trade on the NYSE so the regulations I believe would be different.
 
Mar 14, 2005
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I don't know why investors are pushing for Nintendo games on phones. Their flagship titles would be awful with phone controls, and the economics don't make sense. Where they belong is on a successful home system. You know, like the PS4.

The home console market as a whole is under pressure. There may not be room for a third contender anymore. What makes Nintendo great is their games. If the Wii U is their last home console, as long as they keep pumping out great titles, who cares?

Of course, Nintendo would never do something so smart and forward-looking. Instead we'll get another year of Iwata's excuses and their next console will have smell-o-vision and no account system.
 
Feb 4, 2013
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i suggested this in the media create thread, but i wonder if nintendo could have two handheld lines. one would essentially by a hybrid and hook up to the tv. essentially a gamepad you can take with you. somehow get it out for $200 (wii u level graphics, more tablet-y).

the other one would be an inexpensive one. it'd be smaller and have games that require much smaller teams. a $100 device with $20 games at retail and a $200 device with $50 games at retail. the two would interact with each other somehow and both be out by the end of 2016.

i think they're right to aim for the family market, but software prices are awful. they could bring the game boy name back for the smaller one too, since it doesn't have the confusion (and maybe disinterest) that ds does.

also, the virtual console should be an actual thing that's supported by an decently sized internal team, working on and releasing roms on a steady schedule.
I think that'd be too confusing, honestly. I think they can still release another console, just make low price a priority. I'm talking $200 at launch kinda like what you said.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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At this point, I'm even more hyped for the Investor Meeting. Good thing they faced reality, though (even if I feel 3DS could end up a little higher than that, around 14 millions, but we'll see).

Damn at those profit forecasts. Daaaamn.
 
Unfortunately unless he steps down himself, Iwata being fired probably won't happen as I'm afraid the investors and NCL management are tightly knit and collectively incompetent as they are overly conservative. I'm afraid we're in for a long painful process.

I like Iwata a lot, he deserves credit for the success of DS and Wii but instead of using some of that warchest towards investing in the future of Wii U and expanding development resources, he and NCL just tried to get by with the same old lazy, cheap moves on the side like they did with the GC. I respect him as a passionate, positive former developer, for being friendly towards fans (if it hadn't been for him publically taking notice of the fan outpouring on Miiverse, we probably still wouldn't have Earthbound in NA no thanks to Reggie and the idiots running the VC at NOA), and for taking a pay cut in 2011 (how many CEOs do that?) but the bad decisions are outweighing the good at this point, he's got to go.

He still has value for the company but he shouldn't be CEO anymore and he, Miyamoto and Konno absolutely shouldn't be having final say in hardware decisions and how third party relations are handled anymore.

It's time for NCL to be humble. Keep the philosophy of gameplay, value, quality and content first but adapt to change and be balanced like Sony has done outstandingly with House and Cerny with the PS4.
 
May 24, 2012
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So they haven't even SOLD/SHIPPED 2.8m Wii-Us? O_O!
Nintendo has shipped 3.45 million as of March 2013.

This is a forecast for 2.8 million shipped consoles within a one-year period (April 2013 - March 2014). It has been reduced from 9.0 million (an unchanged forecast originally set in late April 2013).


What is the Wii U's WW LTD?
3.91 million as of September 30th, 2013. We'll find out what the LTD as of December 30th is on January 29th. Bookmark your calendar!
 
Aug 30, 2009
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Well thanks to Iwata Nintendo went way up with Wii and DS and now things are going down .
Nintendo problems going to take a while to get fix and that is if they can even fix them and stay the way they want do .
Handhelds getting eat alive by phones and in home market they were on downward path until Wii but now they are heading back that way .
 
Jun 9, 2004
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The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.
Thing is, it is unlikely to improve for a couple more years until they have something new to offer. It is pretty obvious their software development is moving at a glacial pace in terms of their ability to support their own hardware by themselves.
 
Jun 25, 2005
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Unsurprising in the slightest, and investors wont be happy. Not sure how they're going to respond. Wait for Mario Kart/Smash wont cut it, but this is Nintendo.
A new advertising campaign (Japan only) based on downloading short videos of Nintendo infomercials if your (DoCoMo) phone passes one of the select locations.
 

Bboy AJ

My parents were murdered by a 3.5mm audio port and I will not rest until the standard is dead
Dec 17, 2004
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That original guidance is disingenuous as anything. They should be sued by shareholders.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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The Wii U's fate was sealed at e3 2013 when it was revealed that Kingdom Hearts 3 and Final Fantasy XV would be skipping Wii U in favor of the PS4 and even the Xbox One. How do you secure Kingdom Hearts 3D for your handheld, but not KH3, which was arguably the most hyped up game reveal since Zelda Twilight Princess. If I was Iwata, I would be trying to fund down ports of those key titles which are definitely going to be commercial darlings. You don't need all 3rd Party support, Nintendo. Just the ones that matter most. But, again, it's too late.

My Wii U will be used for Smash Bros, Mario Kart, and whatever other quirky games they deliver, until the next gen. But I feel like Sony has already won my time and attention.
E3 2012 was much more damning for the console. They had people starving for something next-gen, and neither Sony or MS showed anything. What did Nintendo do? They showed an enhanced edition of a game (Batman) that was already available on other platforms, a new Just Dance, and their star of the show was NintendoLand.
 
Jan 22, 2007
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Any chance of Iwata staying on in a non CEO role? Or is this debacle a gone and erased from history kinda deal?
I'd imagine if Nintendo is smart, they eject him entirely from the company. No reason to keep him around as a reminder of these dark times. They've got to shake things up dramatically if they hope to stay alive in the next decade, and that means doing things they may not be comfortable with.

The only real question for me is ... what exactly do they do to shake things up without doing something destructive to their long-term plans?
 
May 31, 2013
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The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.
What? How is a 750 million USD reduction in profit forecasts a minor loss?
 
Apr 23, 2012
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What is the Wii U's WW LTD?
Bundle with Wind Waker HD, Gamepad with Zelda design, and Hyrule Historia.

I don't see any way out of this mess for Nintendo other than finding a partner. The most obvious one, and the only one that would send their stock skyrocketing, is Apple. But I have a hard time imagining that partnership not being terrible, both from a game quality and long-term profit standpoint.

The best possible partner would be Sony. Drop the Wii U and make PS4 games. Sony drops the Vita and leaves portables for Nintendo. Not a 3rd-party relationship, a partnership. Would be amazing. Unfortunately, they'd both probably rather die.

Outside of that...Amazon? Microsoft? I don't know, but they either need a co-branded machine or an exclusive software partnership. Going mobile will kill them faster than sticking to their guns, and going 3rd party will begin a long slide into irrelevance.
This is what I think, but I can't see Nintendo partnering up with anyone. I remember them having difficulties working with Amazon in the past.
 
Jan 4, 2005
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The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.
I understand that. But what would you want to do if your an investor of Nintendo and you've seen years of decline and profits?

Do you think Nintendo's strategy is working? If not, what strategy should Nintendo do to become profitable again is the most important question to investors, management and fans.

Sure Nintendo could exist and weather the storm for years to come but I don't think investors are just going to sit patiently now with these numbers and the continuing decline. Maybe they were waiting and patient and believed in Nintendo's strategy of Wii U and 3DS, but it doesn't appear to be helping them become profitable in the immediate future.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Of course, Nintendo would never do something so smart and forward-looking. Instead we'll get another year of Iwata's excuses and their next console will have smell-o-vision and no account system.
nintendo disappearing from the console space to make games that require bigger teams to learn new hardware for a couple of years won't improve matters. they're better off reinforcing their handheld division.

also interesting how it's always nintendo should develop for ps4, and not ps4 and xb1.
 
Nintendo is the master of its own downfall and really have no one to blame but themselves.

Firstly they turned their backs on traditional gamers with the Wii and went after the casual audience. While traditional gamers were pleased to begin with, they soon realised they couldn't depend on their grandmothers buying the latest Wii games when all they wanted was a Wii Sports box. Developers also couldn't work out how to utilise the strange control scheme which never went much further beyond waggle.

Now there were a lot of gems on the system, but that audience moved onto other systems like the PS3 and the 360 which became a lot more affordable.

The 3DS also got off to an incredibly slow start and only picking it up recently, its probably never going to gain the popularity of the DS though, particularly now it has to fight off tablets and mobiles.

Wii U was basically a disaster, it couldn't rely on the Wii audience to buy it because many of those people bought it on the potential of the system and it never really fulfilled its potential, and it couldn't really rely on the traditional gamer to buy it because they moved on to the PS3 and the 360 and were happy to wait it out until the PS4. Only the hardest of hardcore Nintendo fan got one, and now we can REALLY see the number of Nintendo fans there really are.

Here's a simple message to Nintendo

- Make games like you used to for the NES and SNES, stuff like Castlevania, Metroid, Double Dragon and such. Yes I know they are third party games but that along with its first party stuff sold well.

- Get your act together on the internet side of things with a nice shop and easy to use multiplayer gaming

- Drop the kiddy act. PLEASE... its just awful and its got to go. I much prefer the Mario from Super Mario World then the squealing one from Galaxy.

- Not everything needs to be in 3D - i loved New Super Mario Bros on the Wii, as long as its good I'll play it!
 
Oct 17, 2013
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The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.
I've heard of arguing semantics before, but damn...
 
Nov 20, 2010
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Yeah. I don't know how public companies work in Japan compared to the US, but could a hedge fund take a stake in Nintendo and try and cause or change in management?

ie. Dan Loeb and Yahoo and hiring Marissa Mayer and keeping his people on the board? Or him trying to get Sony to break up?

Is it possible? Sony is a Japanese company but it also trades on the NYSE. Nintendo doesn't trade on the NYSE so the regulations I believe would be different.
Institutional investors, both foreign and domestic, already own the vast majority of Nintendo stock. Yamauchi controlled roughly 10%, so his estate still has significant say. You can see the stock breakdown here.
 
Feb 7, 2005
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ELI5 "deferred tax assets" ? They were planning on paying back some of last year "taxes" with this year "profits"? But since this year is bad, they can't use that cushion to soften last year bad performance?

Ugh, accounting.
losses can be carried forward to a future year and used to lower the tax paid. So when nintendo was expecting a profit they planned to use these tax assets, which now won't be happening as they are going to be unprofitable.
 
Oct 18, 2013
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PS3 lost, what, over $5 billion?
Context is pretty important in these kind of threads.

Everybody knows Nintendo is not doing well lately and changes need to be made, but this doesn't even approach 2006-2008 era Sony's troubles.

The PS3's losses and costs involved dwarf the WiiU. Sony does have other departments but those departments were in trouble at the same time. Nintendo has a relatively successful handheld and billions in the bank.

The question is what can they do to turn it around?
 
Jul 13, 2010
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Is anybody really surprised? Honest question.

Iwata has been saying "let's wait it out. One game can change everything" all year. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the sales of the Wii U (and Wii U software) have been in the toilet. since. launch.

This should come as a surprise to absolutely nobody.

Nintendo needs a major shake-up at this point. They needed one ages ago, but now the writing is on the wall. There is no recovery to be had by staying the course. It's time for heads to roll.
That's the worst part about this, it's been obvious for like two years or so now that Iwata needed to go...Why does it have to take so long?
 
Dec 7, 2011
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The hyperbole in this thread is amazing. This is a very minor loss if you look at Nintendo's yearly income history and its magnitude, and yet the sky is falling. No one's arguing they're doing well, but they're not doing terribly either, just poorly.
I think the main issue is what exactly are they going to do to turn things around. With both consoles revised down and the big guns for the 3DS already released, what now?
 
May 19, 2013
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In all honesty, this just makes me more hyped for the surely-coming Nintendo Direct for January.
......You know, I actually kind of agree. On one hand this is terrible, but on another hand I'm hyped as hell to see what they'll do.

Of course, there's a good chance they'll just play things safe, at least in terms of upcoming announcements, I think.
 
Jan 25, 2012
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Why are people expecting a big direct thing month? Its not like they're going to start developing a ton of Wii U games in response to this news and anything expecting to be released after Zelda is probably going to be held off until their next console. I could see a normal 3DS direct but nothing special.
 
Dec 21, 2010
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This is all just a feint so that investors will be pleased and amazed once the Wii U actually does sell 9 million by the end of the FY.

Iwata is playing four dimensional chess here.
Exactly, and buy up that stock when it's cheap only to see it rocket back up when 9 mil rolls around.
 
Sep 19, 2007
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Remember, these new guidances have the previous LTD built in.

So Wii U went from:

9 million prediction + 3.45 million LTD = 12.45 million LTD as of March 31st, 2014

to:

2.8 million prediction + 3.45 million LTD = 6.25 million LTD as of March 31st, 2014
I'm confuse, i thought that the 9M was the total expected, not "9M more sales"
o_O
 
Aug 13, 2007
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Unsurprising in the slightest, and investors wont be happy. Not sure how they're going to respond. Wait for Mario Kart/Smash wont cut it, but this is Nintendo.
"We understand you concerns and ask you to wait just a little longer. We will be be releasing hit titles such as Super Smash Bros. for Wii U, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, and Mario Kart 8. We will continue to release further big first party titles later in the year. 2014 will mark the year of the Wii U. Have faith and please understand."

*bows*

This is basically how Iwata respond. If we're lucky the investors might get an apology from him. I honestly expect them to just ride this out and further pave their path towards irrelevance in the industry. They are far too conservative for there to legitimate big changes in management.
 
Jun 9, 2012
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Why are people expecting a big direct thing month? Its not like they're going to start developing a ton of Wii U games in response to this news and anything expecting to be released after Zelda is probably going to be held off until their next console. I could see a normal 3DS direct but nothing special.
I'll take some more Bayonetta 2 and SMTxFe news!
 
May 31, 2009
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As long as Iwata sticks around, there's not going to be a change in strategy.

Iwata's strategy is "One game has the power to change everything". Donkey Kong might be that game! Mario Kart might be that game! Smash Bros might be that game! They think their 2014 lineup is the shit, and will sell a bunch of consoles.

We all know that's not happening at this point, but those guys over in Japan are convinced that their current strategy is just fine. Release 1 game every couple of months with literally ZERO third party support.