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[devildog820]

it's not about if it "fails". it's about it not suddenly having a massive sales explosion and being sold out all the time like the wii. if they think it's going to do "good" but not "awesome" then they'll be all poopie faces about it.

same as these big corporations get all pissed off if they make less PROFIT than last year. they still made a profit, but they're not making bigger numbers than last time, so obviously they are in big trouble. capitalistic mentality is weird.

3DS isn't going to *fail*. it's just not. nor will the Vita. (nor is the PS3, regardless of it being last place) but investors are looking for signs of either of them becoming this super megahit and selling like crazy so they can cash in. they won't waste their time with something that just hums along. (it's worth noting im talking about software sales too, not just hardware)

The first bolded part is right, but the concern here is the trendlines. Nintendo was actually in the red (for a quarter), which is a huge flag because it was based on sales falling off, etc. and not a major event or restructuring. Investors are worried because they don't foresee Nintendo being able to reverse this trend anytime soon.

The 3DS won't fail, if you add up numbers sold, etc. But it's a whole package, if people buy 3DSs and don't continue to buy games, then that is a failure of sorts in Nintendo's eyes.

I'm happy Nintendo took a gamble on 3D. I'm less happy that the system doesn't "fit" into today's expectations of portable electronics (battery life, finger based touch, etc). App stores are also a proven model when they work like Apple's or Android's. Direct currency, transferable immediately to any system that you authorize, and one accounting system so you can use points on any platform.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Yea that would be probably more like this: http://asia.gamespot.com/news/6276708.html
160 titles, 20M total sales -> 100k average per title.

100k average.....how can this be a safe investment?

 

[m.i.s.]

Gabe's got a point that Nintendo has not only failed to address, but reponded to by making their games MORE expensive.

If that's not going in the wrong direction I don't know what is.

Agree with the above. We've been through this before with the virtual wasteland that was the higher priced PSP software market. Virtually everything will flounder except the absolute cream of the crop.

And Nintendo's focus is all over the place with the 3DS.

Case in point is the fact that you put out a "this is not DS, this is 3DS" advert with testosterone fuelled games and then wonder why women aren't buying into the platform.

Nintendo releasing pink 3DS to chase flagging sales

 

[Pachterballs]

Rovio: All versions of Angry Birds combined have had 250 million downloads. Made $50 million in revenue.

That wouldn't even cover Mario Kart 7's marketing costs.

Ad money.

 

[Tylahedras]

Gabe's got a point that Nintendo has not only failed to address, but reponded to by making their games MORE expensive.

If that's not going in the wrong direction I don't know what is.

The funny part is I don't even pay a dollar for my games, I get the free ad supported versions... Well I think it's funny.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

Damn... I love when Analysts talk on behalf of the gamers. That being said, it doesn't print money?!

 

[SmokyDave]

Rovio: All versions of Angry Birds combined have had 250 million downloads. Made $50 million in revenue.

That wouldn't even cover Mario Kart 7's marketing costs.

Is that including In-app purchases, merchandising, ad revenue etc?

I'd like to know how Capcom did with Smurfs and all those in-app purchases.

It's simple - if the market showed evidence that it can sustain anything wortwhile(in terms of production value), you would have seen it already.
After 4 years - all you need is look at their investment into the platform - I bet Gameloft games get bigger budgets then what other "big" publishers put into their mobile games.

Of course, the fact that piracy is just as bad as on PC(even with the low pricing) doesn't help build confidence among publishers.

But support is increasing, not decreasing, and budgets are evidently getting higher as the average quality is increasing. Cave have made more games for iOS than for all other handhelds combined as far as I can tell. Are they doing it just to be charitable?

I keep hearing that iOS games don't make money and yet nobody has any actual numbers (outside of AB). It's quite odd.

 

[wsippel]

Hey, now that's funny: Nintendo's stock fell before the fucking conference even started. It had absolutely nothing to do with the announcements, it was basic "buy on rumors, sell on news" behavior. Investors knew there would be news that day, so they sold. They never gave a fuck about the actual announcements.

 

[SovanJedi]

Furthermore Angry Birds is probably the most successful iOS game to date. It's probably not the best barometer for the average successful iOS game case study.

Absolutely not. I personally hate how people keep pointing to iPhone and Android devices saying it's the future and people are getting such huge successes on it, especially since I've had a game I spent a year working on flop on the service and is now no longer even available for download. Angry Birds has a lot to answer for in that inflated vision of wealth and glory for smartphone gaming.

This constant iDevice fellating needs to fucking stop. Even Armchair Analyst GAF has a firmer understanding of the announcements last night than analysts such as this did, else they wouldn't dismiss two exclusive (for now at least) Monster Hunter titles as irrelevant.

 

[Pachterballs]

The funny part is I don't even pay a dollar for my games, I get the free ad supported versions... Well I think it's funny.

I get my iTunes gift card on sale. So it's normally 20-25% off.... And that means I pay only 75c to 80c / game.

I heart iOs.

 

[The_Darkest_Red]

I don't understand this. The DS did not explode onto the market. The DS' first year was TERRIBLE, and it was being beaten soundly by the stronger, prettier, sexier PSP. Then all of a sudden a whole huge wave of games hit about a year into its lifespan, and the machine exploded. And yeah, I've heard the arguments (b-b-but the 3DS is coming off of the DS being the best selling thingamajig ever!), but the DS was coming off of the Game Boy Advance, also just about the best selling thingamajig ever to that point, and everybody was crying doom and gloom about the DS to the point that Nintendo had to keep on reassuring people that the DS was not meant to replace the Game Boy line and that there would be a true successor (rhetoric which promptly disappeared as soon as the DS started to take off).

3DS is going to have a HUGE holiday in Japan. That's what we learned at the conference last night. In the west? Eh, things will probably be a bit dicier, but with evergreen Zelda, Super Mario, and Mario Kart games out before year's end, they'll be in solid shape. Maybe not "dominate the globe" type shape like the DS, but the 3DS will be fine.

Labeling the 3DS an outright failure, especially compared to this stage in the DS' lifespan, is just ludicrous. The 3DS has only been out little over 6 months (and not even 6 months in the west). Has it been slower than Nintendo expected? Yeah. I think they've gotten a little too used to the level of success of the last 5 years and just thought everyone would be there day one rather than seeing how things developed. I think the one thing Nintendo failed to realize coming into this year is that they burned almost as many bridges as they built with the Wii, which was also demonstrated in their awkward Wii U reveal at E3.

The level of support they were expecting at launch, both from third parties and from customers, will probably be there in about a year's time.

I completely agree. Well said. I really think people are underestimating the value of solid games on a Nintendo platform.

 

[Quixzlizx]

Did Capcom also announce Monster Hunter 4 for 3DS, or is that just fanboys renaming 3G? I figured there'd be a front-page thread if another game was announced.

 

[The_Darkest_Red]

Did Capcom also announce Monster Hunter 4 for 3DS, or is that just fanboys renaming 3G? I figured there'd be a front-page thread if another game was announced.

"Yes, but I doubt that will have any effect on anything."

-Reuters

 

[Lazy8s]

Many people here are just too close to see it, but console development's escalating cost of entry had become so high that most of the creativity is gone in place of formulaic and sequel driven production.

iOS started a return to the open market PC days of yore. High production values can still be a selling point, but it no longer has to be virtual necessity and will have to truly justify itself to be economically practical... the way it should be.

On top of that, Nintendo's hardware designs spite technological trends. They were asking for it.

 

[ascii42]

3. Graphical upgrade is negligible. When all is said and done, it still looks like my DS that does 3D. I want something that is by Nintendo that does graphics like the PSP if I want to move on from my DS.

Er, obviously it depends on the game, but I think the 3DS is very capable of PSP quality graphics, see DOA and MGS3.

 

[Edvardelis]

Oh ffs, Reuters too?

I also like how they called 3DS a "glasses-free 3D version of the DS".

If that's what the general public thinks then Nintendo has a big problem on their hands.

 

[Commanche Raisin Toast]

The first bolded part is right, but the concern here is the trendlines. Nintendo was actually in the red (for a quarter), which is a huge flag because it was based on sales falling off, etc. and not a major event or restructuring. Investors are worried because they don't foresee Nintendo being able to reverse this trend anytime soon.

The 3DS won't fail, if you add up numbers sold, etc. But it's a whole package, if people buy 3DSs and don't continue to buy games, then that is a failure of sorts in Nintendo's eyes.

I'm happy Nintendo took a gamble on 3D. I'm less happy that the system doesn't "fit" into today's expectations of portable electronics (battery life, finger based touch, etc). App stores are also a proven model when they work like Apple's or Android's. Direct currency, transferable immediately to any system that you authorize, and one accounting system so you can use points on any platform.

right, im trying to separate the concepts of a platform FAILING and a platform not living up to expectations or not meeting certain goals. failing to meet a sales goal is not the same as ceasing production, clearing out inventory, and either exiting the handheld business or making a successor this early. it just seems like the term fail can mean a lot of different things, and needs clarity based on each situation.

 

[Alexios]

Many people here are just too close to see it, but console development's escalating cost of entry had become so high that most of the creativity is gone in place of formulaic and sequel driven production.

iOS started a return to the open market PC days of yore. High production values can still be a selling point, but it no longer has to be virtual necessity and will have to truly justify itself to be economically practical... the way it should be.

On top of that, Nintendo's hardware designs spite technological trends. They were asking for it.

Dude, you're talking about the successor to the DS, not the PS3 or something... High production values wasn't what sold it and its software... Also, PC days of yore? I'm pretty sure the indie/small budget scene is bigger than ever these days, and all consoles have variable low budget solutions in both retail and downloadable outlets these days. It's a matter of promotion really, and they're all improving over time. Also, there are plenty small developers that are way beyond the garage developer and can afford plenty of what you seem to think is insurmountable barriers to entry, and do so when the games warrant that kind of release, while leaving spin offs, bombas and ancient ports for iOS which, in its current state, absolutely doesn't seem capable of supporting anything beyond garage developer non-budget type releases that cost $1 or get discounted to that asap. Neither market is perfect for everyone everywhere as the various fans want to claim, each developer has to decide what is best for them per project, and that's what they've been doing, while hyping their choices up as the best ever in whatever controversial way can get them the most attention, and I guess people eat it all up no questions asked.

 

[Futureman]

what was that one graphic Nintendo showed near the beginning of the conference last night?

I think it showed the 3DS selling better in it's first 6 months than the Wii or DS, but I don't speak Japan language.

 

[walking fiend]

The first bolded part is right, but the concern here is the trendlines. Nintendo was actually in the red (for a quarter), which is a huge flag because it was based on sales falling off, etc. and not a major event or restructuring. Investors are worried because they don't foresee Nintendo being able to reverse this trend anytime soon.

The 3DS won't fail, if you add up numbers sold, etc. But it's a whole package, if people buy 3DSs and don't continue to buy games, then that is a failure of sorts in Nintendo's eyes.

I'm happy Nintendo took a gamble on 3D. I'm less happy that the system doesn't "fit" into today's expectations of portable electronics (battery life, finger based touch, etc). App stores are also a proven model when they work like Apple's or Android's. Direct currency, transferable immediately to any system that you authorize, and one accounting system so you can use points on any platform.

They only work for apple, because it helps them sell their hardware. Nintendo isn't nearly about making money out of hardware as is Apple or other cellphone makers. App store revenue is practically nothing, even compared to their profit, let alone their revenue.

Nintendo, and all the software publishers, are mostly about making money out of their software and app store won't work for them, as it isn't working for apple.

$1 apps on iPhone are like free phones with contracts; they come cheap only because you pay a lot for the hardware.

The actual problem here is that Apple takes your money when you buy their phone, and then they give you free software. Since people, for whatever reason, already have bought iPhone, it would be stupid for them not to use the free software. And this is not something which Nintendo can overcome easily, unless you expect them to be so much better than developers already on iPhone, to be able to come up with games that totally cannot be done by them.

However, in the long run, I expect this App store model fail, because developers that are on the platform will realize that they are actually working for Apple, with Apple taking the biggest portion of the profit out of their efforts.

Unless Apple becomes a second Nintendo and develop its own software as well. In that case, it will be interesting to see whether people are more willing to pay upfront for the hardware, or for the software.

 

[jman2050]

Are any of y'all considering the fact that a Nintendo iOS game sold for, say, $10 would do considerably better than Angry Birds? It would rock the charts like crazy.

But why do that when they can just put the games on their own systems and make even more money that way?

iOS started a return to the open market PC days of yore.

Wait, when did the open market PC days go away? Cause I sure didn't notice.

 

[kinggroin]

Did Capcom also announce Monster Hunter 4 for 3DS, or is that just fanboys renaming 3G? I figured there'd be a front-page thread if another game was announced.

Yes. And there IS a thread for it. Been there for some time now.

Where have you been?

 

[Guardian Bob]

Nintendo announced the same 'old and are trying to compete in a smartphone/tablet world. I can see why investors weren't impressed.

 

[Conrad Link]

After this holiday season Iwata will be on the erection seat.

 

[wsippel]

Already mentioned this in the Reuters thread, but "Nintendo Shares Drop 5% Following Pre-TGS Announcements" is completely wrong. Nintendo shares dropped 5% before the conference even started. The drop had nothing to do with the announcements themselves, the shares dropped due to the fact that there were announcements.

 

[sixteen-bit]

they should have shown the add-on

 

[Box of Bunnies]

Did Capcom also announce Monster Hunter 4 for 3DS, or is that just fanboys renaming 3G? I figured there'd be a front-page thread if another game was announced.

You mean like the one right here?

 

[chubigans]

But why do that when they can just put the games on their own systems and make even more money that way?

Given their supposedly losing money on the 3DS, I'm not so sure.

But more than likely a lackluster performing 3DS will bring in more money than a high performing iOS title.

 

[Ellis Kim]

I can't believe that Monster Hunter 4 is going to be for 3DS.... but I wonder if it'll be 3DS exclusive. That's the real question.

 

[Cipherr]

I keep hearing that iOS games don't make money and yet nobody has any actual numbers (outside of AB). It's quite odd.

No, Im not saying iOS games dont make money, Im saying the money it makes is a miniscule drop in the bucket compared to actual dedicated console games released on dedicated gaming consoles.

And we have enough numbers (facts) to come to that conclusion easily.

Many people here are just too close to see it, but console development's escalating cost of entry had become so high that most of the creativity is gone in place of formulaic and sequel driven production.

I would love to know how the 3DS of all systems is suddenly considered part of the gaming market experiencing the massive and unsustainable increase in development cost, with its Gamecube esque levels of power and production ceilings.

iOS started a return to the open market PC days of yore. High production values can still be a selling point

Mobile gaming has maybe a handful of titles that could be considered high production values in the gaming market today. MAYBE a handful. It is very much a market still in its infancy. On XBL PSN and Wiiware, we see cheap $1 $2 $5 and $10 dollar games actually sell copies.

But we dont see any High production $40 dollar titles selling on mobile devices yet. You all keep trying to convince us that the market for a full $40 or so title no longer exists, and the only reason you do, is because you know that type of title isn't likely to ever achieve success on a mobile device even if the game were more than worth the cost. So you try and right it off as dead, and on its way out.

Good luck with that. There are going to be a lot of cheap 1$ titles all the way up to $50 dollar titles sold on both the Vita and 3DS in the next 6 years. They will see success at every game title price range and scale. Not so for mobile gaming. Not on the same level anyway.

 

[M3d10n]

Is that including In-app purchases, merchandising, ad revenue etc?

I'd like to know how Capcom did with Smurfs and all those in-app purchases.

Not enough to announce a mainline Resident Evil or Monster Hunter for iOS, apparently.

 

[Fafalada]

But support is increasing, not decreasing, and budgets are evidently getting higher as the average quality is increasing.

I'll give you support (the volume of releases at least). I'll challenge anyone on arguing "average"-quality though - if the app-numbers Apple flaunts to us are true - good luck working out averages (let alone their trends).

I keep hearing that iOS games don't make money and yet nobody has any actual numbers (outside of AB).

I never argued they don't make money - I only argued profitability is low(hence bigger development investments are not sustainable - at least not yet) - and the current business model is primarily working well for Apple.
That said, we're already seeing a shift to free2play (and revenues appear to be rising as result).

 

[beril]

3. Graphical upgrade is negligible. When all is said and done, it still looks like my DS that does 3D. I want something that is by Nintendo that does graphics like the PSP if I want to move on from my DS.

lolwut?
Have you ever actually seen a screenshot or a video of a 3DS game?

Some of the early games look a bit crappy, but from a technical point it's probably one of the biggest generational leap ever between two consoles

I suggest having a look at these games and then say the upgrade is negliable
MH3G
SM3DL
RE:R

 

[SmokyDave]

No, Im not saying iOS games dont make money, Im saying the money it makes is a miniscule drop in the bucket compared to actual dedicated console games released on dedicated gaming consoles.

And we have enough numbers (facts) to come to that conclusion easily.

No, we don't. You have no idea what the development or marketing budgets are for iOS. We have no idea. If they make a 20th of the profit at a 40th of the cost, that's a win. We cannot be sure without concrete numbers from a range of sources.

iOS which, in its current state, absolutely doesn't seem capable of supporting anything beyond garage developer non-budget type releases that cost $1 or get discounted to that asap.

Go tell that to Cave, they don't seem to have noticed.

Not enough to announce a mainline Resident Evil or Monster Hunter for iOS, apparently.

Ah, so you don't know then?

Cool.

 

[The Technomancer]

I'm happy Nintendo took a gamble on 3D. I'm less happy that the system doesn't "fit" into today's expectations of portable electronics (battery life, finger based touch, etc). App stores are also a proven model when they work like Apple's or Android's. Direct currency, transferable immediately to any system that you authorize, and one accounting system so you can use points on any platform.

Not for developers. Angry Birds has brought in about $50 million and been downloaded 250 million times. And that's the top of the top sellers.

 

[wwm0nkey]

Yeah I dont think this is going to flop lol

 

[Pachterballs]

Not enough to announce a mainline Resident Evil or Monster Hunter for iOS, apparently.

Well final fantasy tactics is coming to iPad and I fucking can't wait. Big screen fft. Gonna be fucking amazing

 

[Quixzlizx]

Yes. And there IS a thread for it. Been there for some time now.

Where have you been?

Watching Monday Night Football instead of browsing GAF last night. I wonder how many Monster Hunter games Capcom will end up releasing in a 12-month period.

 

[SovanJedi]

No, we don't. You have no idea what the development or marketing budgets are for iOS. We have no idea. If they make a 20th of the profit at a 40th of the cost, that's a win. We cannot be sure without concrete numbers from a range of sources.


Go tell that to Cave, they don't seem to have noticed.


Ah, so you don't know then?

Cool.

If it means anything, our game didn't make us any money, and it was a relative shoestring budget as it is.

 

[The_Darkest_Red]

Well final fantasy tactics is coming to iPad and I fucking can't wait. Big screen fft. Gonna be fucking amazing

Yeah, big screen FFT, just like the one released in 1997.

 

[Clear]

The vast, overwhelming majority of iOS games don't make any significant amount of money because at the expected minimal price-point you need very substantial numbers to make ROI.

Essentially if you don't get featured on the store in major markets (particularly NA) you're basically dead in the water irrespective of your review scores.

The biggest problem is that its a totally mass-market driven platform, so even though you'd think that its a great incubator for creativity, the more left-field you get the deeper the hole you're digging for yourself.

 

[Aaron]

I'm not really a fan of Nintendo personally... but why are they targeted with the 'DOOMED!!' talk so often? They're hugely successful and that gets some press, but the second something doesn't go all their way it's 'oh they're completely screwed now.' Because no they aren't. The gamecube didn't kill them and neither will the 3ds. That's pure crazy talk.

 

[Alexios]

Go tell that to Cave, they don't seem to have noticed..

Yes they have. Also, lol Cave. What a high caliber high budget developer, throwing ports to iOS. What about the rest of my post then?

 

[Cipherr]

No, we don't. You have no idea what the development or marketing budgets are for iOS. We have no idea. If they make a 20th of the profit at a 40th of the cost, that's a win. We cannot be sure without concrete numbers from a range of sources.

Dude, even if they made 100% of the revenue as profit it STILL WOULD BE A mere drop in the bucket. Yes, we do have enough information.

We dont need the ratio, we can flat out give Rovio the best case scenario and its still fucking peanuts.

 

[devildog820]

They only work for apple, because it helps them sell their hardware. Nintendo isn't nearly about making money out of hardware as is Apple or other cellphone makers. App store revenue is practically nothing, even compared to their profit, let alone their revenue.

Nintendo, and all the software publishers, are mostly about making money out of their software and app store won't work for them, as it isn't working for apple.

$1 apps on iPhone are like free phones with contracts; they come cheap only because you pay a lot for the hardware.

I disagree with your outlook, but we can go into the Apple thread for that.

I wasn't talking prices in regards to the App Store model. Just the convenience of it. There is no good reason to not match the policies of Android's and Apple's app stores. Let us authorize up to five systems at a time, give us a way to deauthorize lost or broken systems, let us pay with dollars/yen/euros/pounds instead of points that don't transfer. Etc.

Nintendo takes a pretty hefty cut from developers as well, though. For a $35 game, Nintendo takes more than 30% I believe.

 

[beril]

Well final fantasy tactics is coming to iPad and I fucking can't wait. Big screen fft. Gonna be fucking amazing

Port of a PSP port of a 14 year old PSX game. Doesn't really show that much faith in the platform

 

[Wrestlemania]

Go tell that to Cave, they don't seem to have noticed.

Ports. It'd be interesting to see if they ever develop an entirely new game for iOS.

 

[Mooreberg]

To be fair, most analysts have predicted that the Vita will be an unmitigated disaster as well. I don't think it's possible that both will flop inside of one generation.

PSP and DS combined for well over 200 million units worldwide. There does't seem to be a realistic expectation that 3DS and Vita will do this. In Vita's case, Sony would actually be better off if they sold 20 million units fewer but had less of a piracy problem, but that isn't what these investors are focused on.

I really wonder what a lot of these Japanese companies are going to do if much of that DS audience is done with $30+ portable games. Start trying to compete better on consoles, or take their chances in the App Store flea market?

 

[mutsu]

Already mentioned this in the Reuters thread, but "Nintendo Shares Drop 5% Following Pre-TGS Announcements" is completely wrong. Nintendo shares dropped 5% before the conference even started. The drop had nothing to do with the announcements themselves, the shares dropped due to the fact that there were announcements.

This.

For all we know, it may jump back up tomorrow.

 

[sixteen-bit]

I think it will be successful in Japan at least