None of the "current" democratic candidates can beat Trump and the DNC is letting things fly.

Afro Republican

GAF>INTERNET>GAF, BITCHES
Aug 24, 2016
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#51
You talk about repeated (?) Democratic party collapses when literally all Republicans candidates during the primarily were destroyed by a Birther billionaire who was a Democrat
The issue here is you're seemingly incapable of actually talking about the democrat party and it's issues by itself without trying to cover that up by bringing up the republicans. The party being split was a REAL issue in 2016, you can't hand waive that with "what about the republicans" if you want the democrats to win (which you do) and thus it's important to talk about how you have many of the candidates not having real positions, going withthe flow, and basically going behind radicals alienating the rest of the party.

The DNC is the only institution that can actually try and stop this problem since it represents the controlling ideology of the party, and if they do nothing and the party splits again a Trump re-election is a real possibility.

You can't keep using republicans at an excuse not to address problems or to procrastinate,IF the dems want to win 2020 they need to changes the CURRENT situation. The current announce candidates are poor, have no real platform, and are going with the increasing socialist arm of the party being to scared to be moderate and avoiding compromise. I assure you the majority of voters needed to win aren't thinking like that.
 

Arkage

Gold Member
Sep 25, 2012
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#52
The issue here is you're seemingly incapable of actually talking about the democrat party and it's issues by itself without trying to cover that up by bringing up the republicans. The party being split was a REAL issue in 2016, you can't hand waive that with "what about the republicans" if you want the democrats to win (which you do) and thus it's important to talk about how you have many of the candidates not having real positions, going withthe flow, and basically going behind radicals alienating the rest of the party.

The DNC is the only institution that can actually try and stop this problem since it represents the controlling ideology of the party, and if they do nothing and the party splits again a Trump re-election is a real possibility.

You can't keep using republicans at an excuse not to address problems or to procrastinate,IF the dems want to win 2020 they need to changes the CURRENT situation. The current announce candidates are poor, have no real platform, and are going with the increasing socialist arm of the party being to scared to be moderate and avoiding compromise. I assure you the majority of voters needed to win aren't thinking like that.
You don't seem to understand what the phrase "pot meet kettle" means.
 
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Jul 19, 2018
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#53
Black women. Men are moving away and they have been a topic since 2016 every year including the mid terms. Also those percentages are inflated and bogus and it's not clear what they are based on because you can find sources with other percentages as well.
Black women are a part of black people. Trump might very well get a small increase in the black male vote. It’s not going to change the overall black vote much.
 
Likes: danielberg
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#54
I think Hillary Clinton was uniquely qualified to lose to Trump and almost anyone else would beat him, frankly.

That said, the best candidate to run against him is going to be someone who can tap into the same kind of outsider, populist, anti-establishment sort of bent that he does. I think Bernie has an obvious advantage on that front.

The idea that winning swing voters involves "meeting in the middle" by taking weakly held positions is fucking stupid. Winning swing voters is important, but it's something you do with rhetoric, not by playing the middle. In a political landscape as polarized as it is, centrism is suicide.
 
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Cybrwzrd

Anime waifu panty shots are basically the same thing as paintings of the french baroque masters, if you think about it.
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#55
Half of blacks in the US live in southern red states that are not going to budge easily. People give far more credit to the importance of their vote at the electoral collage scale than they really contribute. Yes, Democrats need to embrace them if that is their goal to win nationwide, but doing so while ignoring the swing state and midwestern state whites (which is a lot of overlap) give you Trump.

Midwesterners are from farming and manufacturing families. They are populist and traditional. Hillary lost because she ignored them and Trump courted them. That is why Bernie won in many of those states. I also think his identitarian swing will hurt him, which is probably the result of some coastal progressive consultants giving him advice on how to pick up southern states for delegates.
 
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Afro Republican

GAF>INTERNET>GAF, BITCHES
Aug 24, 2016
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#56
Black women are a part of black people. Trump might very well get a small increase in the black male vote. It’s not going to change the overall black vote much.
It's not a small amount, and you and the DNC"s lack of ability to look at this from an EC map angle is exactly why 2016 happened in the first place, if you continue to omit the EC until the election day the DNC will lose again.

You need to start looking at the Democratic party and where it stand by itself without constantly trying to bring in the GOP as an excuse to do nothing and address nothing. There's a refusal for the party to look at itself or errors and if there are mistakes made or things not addressed, it's basically washed off.
 

Afro Republican

GAF>INTERNET>GAF, BITCHES
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#57
You don't seem to understand what the phrase "pot meet kettle" means.
That's not a response, thanks for proving my point with a one sentence dismissal.

Half of blacks in the US live in southern red states that are not going to budge easily. People give far more credit to the importance of their vote at the electoral collage scale than they really contribute. Yes, Democrats need to embrace them if that is their goal to win nationwide, but doing so while ignoring the swing state and midwestern state whites (which is a lot of overlap) give you Trump.

Midwesterners are from farming and manufacturing families. They are populist and traditional. Hillary lost because she ignored them and Trump courted them. That is why Bernie won in many of those states. I also think his identitarian swing will hurt him, which is probably the result of some coastal progressive consultants giving him advice on how to pick up southern states for delegates.
Seems more of a lack of understanding of the EC. Hillary would have won if you removed those GOP vote increases from WIn and Michigan. Penn she lost because she basically stopped trying and assumed she would win by going to a couple cities.

But everyone wants to pretend it was something else and not her campaigns mistakes so I feel like a lesson wasn't really learned, because so far the pre-primary debate season is starting off the same but a bit worse than it was in 2016.
 
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#58
It's not a small amount, and you and the DNC"s lack of ability to look at this from an EC map angle is exactly why 2016 happened in the first place, if you continue to omit the EC until the election day the DNC will lose again.

You need to start looking at the Democratic party and where it stand by itself without constantly trying to bring in the GOP as an excuse to do nothing and address nothing. There's a refusal for the party to look at itself or errors and if there are mistakes made or things not addressed, it's basically washed off.
I don’t give a shit about the DNC or the RNC. The thing you are not understanding is Trump won because of the White working class. Especially in the Midwest. Just since 2016 there have been enough White Trump voters that have died from opioids, and old age, and enough non-whites turning 18 to make it really hard for Trump to be re-elected. The only thing getting a slight bump in the Black vote will do for Trump is help him hold on to most of the south.
 
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Cybrwzrd

Anime waifu panty shots are basically the same thing as paintings of the french baroque masters, if you think about it.
Sep 29, 2014
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#59
That's not a response, thanks for proving my point with a one sentence dismissal.



Seems more of a lack of understanding of the EC. Hillary would have won if you removed those GOP vote increases from WIn and Michigan. Penn she lost because she basically stopped trying and assumed she would win by going to a couple cities.

But everyone wants to pretend it was something else and not her campaigns mistakes so I feel like a lesson wasn't really learned, because so far the pre-primary debate season is starting off the same but a bit worse than it was in 2016.
Wisconsin and Michigan are solidly in that midwestern demographic I’m talking about though.

Those states are kingmakers. The Democrats would be wise to drop the identitarian shit and focus on things that will help everyone.
 

Afro Republican

GAF>INTERNET>GAF, BITCHES
Aug 24, 2016
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#61
I don’t give a shit about the DNC or the RNC. The thing you are not understanding is Trump won because of the White working class. Especially in the Midwest.
People keep repeating this yet the EC shows different. He won because he got Wins and Michigan and Penn, and not by a large margin, he would have lost if he didn't get those three states and they went to Hillary. That's why at the last hour, if you were paying attention on election day, everyone was saying she needed to win Michigan to at least STOP Trump from getting 270 after they called WIc. So then he ended up flipping PENN late in the game which screwed things up and caused everyone to panic in the media, and the they called Michigan.

She lost Michigan and Win because of a good number black voters adding to the total, she lost PENN because she was an idiot. The actual amount of votes he got in those states to win in total wasn't that much, and that was hung in the media for months that it was a "marginal" victory. If you were paying attention, you would know this already. Easy to verify, heck Reset and Neogaf have threads on that as well. Stop blaming all the wrong things on Trumps win and maybe there MIGHT be a chance in 2020.

Wisconsin and Michigan are solidly in that midwestern demographic I’m talking about though.

Those states are kingmakers. The Democrats would be wise to drop the identitarian shit and focus on things that will help everyone.
They are already using the pre-debate campaign strategy from 2016, where they focus on a lot of population centers in states they can't lose, and aren't doing much running around or fundraising in leaning or light red states. With most of the candidates doing this it will turn the next year into a battle ground to see who can get the votes in winnable states and no one will be focusing elsewhere until there's only around 4 or 2 guys left.

They have learned zero lessons, at least so far. If the party is smart they'll start quality control during the summer and fall. Focus on solidifying light blue states, start going into swings early, and maybe throwing a few cards in light red states and see what happens, instead of wasting time like 2016 until the last 10 months.

We'll see if things change by august.
 
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Jan 11, 2016
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#62
Half of blacks in the US live in southern red states that are not going to budge easily. People give far more credit to the importance of their vote at the electoral collage scale than they really contribute. Yes, Democrats need to embrace them if that is their goal to win nationwide, but doing so while ignoring the swing state and midwestern state whites (which is a lot of overlap) give you Trump.

Midwesterners are from farming and manufacturing families. They are populist and traditional. Hillary lost because she ignored them and Trump courted them. That is why Bernie won in many of those states. I also think his identitarian swing will hurt him, which is probably the result of some coastal progressive consultants giving him advice on how to pick up southern states for delegates.
Black voters are super important to the primary, because they form the overwhelming majority of the demcratic primary voters in a lot of the early states. Lack of awareness/name recognition among black voters is what kept Bernie Sanders from gaining traction in the primaries, which the Clinton campaign then exploited to frame him as a "white man's candidate" (the whole "Bernie Bro" line of bullshit).

Interestingly, Bernie now has the highest favorability rating among black voters, reinforcing that this was less about people liking him as it was even knowing who the fuck he was. The neoliberal media types still sometimes try to push this narrative that Bernie isn't interested in racial or social justice, but I don't think anyone really buys it.
 

Rentahamster

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#65
I predict another Trump win and both arms of the democratic party collapsing as the party attempts to repair itself and come back to order in 2024. Just like how a good chunk of the Hillary/Pelosi arm of the party crumbled after 2016 giving the Socialist arm more power over the next two years till now, I think we'll have a 3rd "democratic party collapse, in the countries history where like the previous 2 times n history, the democratic party was fractured and fell to pieces and taking 2 terms to come back to stabilization.
An additional word of advice. Try not to let your imagination get the best of you.

https://www.amazon.com/40-More-Years-Democrats-Generation/dp/1416596283

 
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Beto is gonna be a heavy hitter I think. In my opinion its gonna come down to him, Harris and Biden barring any unseen incidents or revelations. Its a toss up at that point. I love his energy and his adaptability though.
 
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Beto is gonna be a heavy hitter I think. In my opinion its gonna come down to him, Harris and Biden barring any unseen incidents or revelations. Its a toss up at that point. I love his energy and his adaptability though.
Super Tuesday will decide it. I think beto is stronger in texas than Harris is stronger in california. Bernie can legit win CA over Harris. His favorables dropped a bit but his fundraising is a well oiled machine.
 
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#74
Nobody knows anything this early. We all thought Bush 41 was unbeatable back in 1992 against a bunch of unheard of Dems coming from meaningless states like Arkansas. A lot will happen between now and then.

Trump will not get a significant increase in the black vote. You fundamentally misunderstand why black people vote Democrat.
Blacks will continue to vote for whatever party supports the statist status quo. Not to repeat what I have said in other threads, but it is a matter of pure self-interest. A vast majority of black wealth and income is generated by the state: state jobs, patronage, and welfare payments.
 
Likes: TheGreatYosh
Jan 14, 2015
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#79
No one does. It's been a very long time since any Republican has won the majority of the votes nationally. Trump and Republicans will likely be slaughtered in 2020.
I'm wary of making that claim myself because 2018 has shown Republicans where willing to commit voter fraud and cheat elections (North Carolina and Georgia respectively), and the entire Trump circle has been investigated and indited on multiple election fraud and crimes. I'm not expecting an honest and untainted election in 2020, I'm expecting some serious cheating to go on Trump's end.
 
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#82
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#83
It's less of that and more of them slowly abandoning the working class, a key demographic of theirs.

https://www.amazon.com/Listen-Liberal-Happened-Party-People/dp/1250118131

But the reasons why they abandoned the working class is because many of them are white and the idea took hold that white people are not worth helping, which is identity politics 101.

Let's not dance around the issue, the Democrats are the party of anti-whiteness, anti-whiteness is the core tenet of modern "liberalism"

Until the extremists are told to fuck off and people come to grips with the fact that, yes Virginia, racism against white people can be a thing, the Democrats are doomed.
 
Jun 26, 2007
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#84
But the reasons why they abandoned the working class is because many of them are white and the idea took hold that white people are not worth helping, which is identity politics 101.

Let's not dance around the issue, the Democrats are the party of anti-whiteness, anti-whiteness is the core tenet of modern "liberalism"

Until the extremists are told to fuck off and people come to grips with the fact that, yes Virginia, racism against white people can be a thing, the Democrats are doomed.
That doesn't make any sense. Many of EVERY class in America is white, because America is a majority white nation. If they were that anti-white, they'd be telling all white people of all economic backgrounds to fuck off, but they're not.

The common denominator is pro-rich.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/...ighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html
 
Jan 25, 2018
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#85
That doesn't make any sense. Many of EVERY class in America is white, because America is a majority white nation. If they were that anti-white, they'd be telling all white people of all economic backgrounds to fuck off, but they're not.

The common denominator is pro-rich.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/...ighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html
Anti-whiteness is the core tenet of a growing strain of "liberalism" that is gradually taking over and pushing any moderates out of the Democrats.

It's why Hillary didn't bother campaigning in certain states because oh well, they're all just deplorables anyway and it's currently best personified by AOC and her cult following.
 
Jun 26, 2007
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#86
Anti-whiteness is the core tenet of a growing strain of "liberalism" that is gradually taking over and pushing any moderates out of the Democrats.

It's why Hillary didn't bother campaigning in certain states because oh well, they're all just deplorables anyway and it's currently best personified by AOC and her cult following.
That doesn't make sense either. Wisconsin is a blue state going back to the 80s. It's been full of people voting for Democratic presidents for 30 years. She didn't campaign there because she thought she had it on lock.
 
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#90
While I do think there is more to it than just her not campaigning there, in hindsight, I am sure it was felt as a mistake.
She sure thinks so.

https://www.businessinsider.com/hillary-clinton-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-what-happened-2017-9
On Wisconsin, Clinton said it was the "one place where we were caught by surprise."

She said her team deployed 133 staffers to the Badger State and spent $3 million on TV ads, "but if our data (or anyone else's) had shown we were in danger, of course we would have invested even more."

"I would have torn up my schedule, which was designed based on the best information we had, and camped out there," she wrote.

Clinton pointed to new voter ID laws in the state as a strong reason for why she lost Wisconsin.

"Bear in mind that Trump received roughly the same number of votes in Wisconsin that Mitt Romney did," she wrote, referring to the 2012 Republican presidential nominee. "There was no surge in Republican turnout. Instead, enough voters switched, stayed home, or went for third parties in the final days to cost me the state."
 
Oct 27, 2017
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#92
DNC with their media mouthpieces will get rid of anyone and everyone until only harris and biden are left.
Absolutely.
But how much blood will be on the walls and will the regressive left politely comply and support the DNC candidate?

(It is not the republicans the DNC should worry about. The republicans will just say bad things to you from a podium at the debate and then leave. They are not the ones that will send an angry mob to your kids school.)
 
Jun 26, 2007
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#93
Do you have information on the state level as well as congressional/senatorial level around that time by chance? Just curious if there happened to be a more widespread trend than just solely her.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/wisconsin

Not much of a statewide trend due to the state turning red for president. Nearly all of the incumbents stayed incumbents. Remember that it's not like Trump turned Wisconsin and the other rust belt states red in a landslide. He barely squeaked it out. That slight bump that gives Trump a statewide lead in aggregate probably isn't big enough to have a significant effect in individual counties, due to gerrymandering and other factors.
 
Feb 24, 2019
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I seem to remember similar threads before the midterms and various jokes about the blue wave being a dribble / non existant.

Yeah. Woops.
The "blue wave" that saw the House flip (as it has under every president in history sans Bush, 9/11) with Republicans gaining seats in the Senate?
 
Jul 30, 2018
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#96
The "blue wave" that saw the House flip (as it has under every president in history sans Bush, 9/11) with Republicans gaining seats in the Senate?
Yes, that one that took the house in history making numbers.

Not bad for a dead party, and a poor showing from the so called silent majority. Perhaps they forgot it was polling day or sommat.
 
Jun 20, 2018
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Yes, that one that took the house in history making numbers.
You do realize that obama in his first midterm lost senate seats (-9) and then literally lost more house seats (-63) than trump too?
Trump/this administration actually increased senate seats (+3) in the midterm and he lost around (-40) house seats.
 
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Likes: Cucked SoyBoy
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So Beto O'Rourke managed to beat every other dem so far with $6.1 million worth of funding during his first 24 hours:


I think there's a good chance he'll end up getting either the nomination, or the VP pick. People rag on him for being White Obama, but maybe an Obama-style candidate could actually get stuff done without the Black-Kenyan-Muslim-Communist baggage. I'm curious to see what his policies will end up being.

Do the far left really dislike Biden? why?

What is Biden's reputation among republicans and conservative voters in 2019?
I don't think they "hate" him or anything, he's just the candidate who is least likely to push for significant change. After the Obama years, and now the Trump years, they're looking for someone who will take an assertive stance on pushing reforms. Biden's biggest strength is his supposed "Blue Dog Energy," which makes him more likely to be noncommittal.
 
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