• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
  • The Politics forum has been nuked. Please do not bring political discussion to the rest of the site, or you will be removed. Thanks.

NPD July 2012 Sales Results [Up3: 3DS Hardware Correction - 124K+]

Gradivus

Member
May 5, 2012
791
0
465
I think around the 200 to 250,000 mark is probably the best bet for Kingdom Hearts now. Who knows, it could do even better if lucky.
 

evangd007

Member
Jun 27, 2009
2,921
21
1,005
I get a similar sense: that Sony assumed they could repeat PSP's third-party success - snagging third-party exclusives by default by virtue of being able to run games that Nintendo's handheld simply couldn't - without actually thinking about whether Japanese third parties were interested in developing handheld software significantly beyond PSP/PS2/3DS levels of graphical fidelity. All indications thus far, of course, are that they aren't.

And my god, I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall at SCE the day they found out about MH3G/4. You could probably write an entire book about all the bad decisions that went into designing, launching, and supporting Vita, but there's no chance we'll ever get the full story, sadly.

While I agree that Sony simply assumed that Japanese third parties would flock to the Vita, the heir apparent to the PSP juggernaut, I'm surprised that they are simply doing nothing while every indication is saying that third parties are doing anything but. Hell, they aren't even acknowledging it based upon their PR.
 

Kazerei

Banned
Nov 25, 2010
12,122
1
0
I just don't see how KH DDD could sell as much as 358/2 or BBS did. There's a smaller userbase, less hype, and the whole industry is down. All signs point to lower sales.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
955
30
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Guys, I've said 320k as the low bar for considering it decent because it has 4 weeks counted. Yes, the brand is losing its appeal, true, and that's something I counted too. In fact, 320k is just 100k above what BbS did in a similar time span on PSP, in a much worse software environment. 150k in 4 weeks would be drastically low, probably it could do that just in its first week IMHO. And it'll be helped by 3DS XL launch for sure. Still, we'll (probably? :( ) discover it next month, unless Nintendo doesn't release a PR for a good 3DS XL launch or something and talks about KH3D's sales too. Such a long wait :(
 
Jan 28, 2010
6,073
0
0
ITALY
graphmag.wordpress.com
Guys, I've said 320k as the low bar for considering it decent because it has 4 weeks counted. Yes, the brand is losing its appeal, true, and that's something I counted too. In fact, 320k is just 100k above what BbS did in a similar time span on PSP, in a much worse software environment. 150k in 4 weeks would be drastically low, probably it could do that just in its first week IMHO. And it'll be helped by 3DS XL launch for sure. Still, we'll (probably? :( ) discover it next month, unless Nintendo doesn't release a PR for a good 3DS XL launch or something and talks about KH3D's sales too. Such a long wait :(

Only 3D Land and Kart 7 opened higher than 300k on 3DS in the US.
 

Saint Gregory

Member
Jan 4, 2006
14,145
0
0
Guys, I've said 320k as the low bar for considering it decent because it has 4 weeks counted. Yes, the brand is losing its appeal, true, and that's something I counted too. In fact, 320k is just 100k above what BbS did in a similar time span on PSP, in a much worse software environment. 150k in 4 weeks would be drastically low, probably it could do that just in its first week IMHO. And it'll be helped by 3DS XL launch for sure. Still, we'll (probably? :( ) discover it next month, unless Nintendo doesn't release a PR for a good 3DS XL launch or something and talks about KH3D's sales too. Such a long wait :(
Considering how the game did in Japan I wouldn't hold out too much hope. I did my part but I've been holding off on playing it until I pick up an XL.
Vita<50K ; PSP ~30K



Sony PR: "..."
I'm pretty sure that it was confirmed earlier in the thread that the ~30K estimate for the PSP was way too high.
 
Aug 30, 2007
14,206
0
0
No, I think Sony's strategy was squarely on the Japanese market. They knew that Japan was the land of portables and they had experienced so much success with MonHun that they basically decided to make a system that was going to be the best way to play it. It would be a console on the go with dual-analogs, etc. It would easily outclass Nintendo's system. The Japanese would eat it up. As a mere side benefit, they could finally make decent handheld FPSs for the West.

Unfortunately, somewhere along the line after it was too late to change course, Nintendo made a deal with Capcom for MonHun. I am sure that internally, Sony was devastated, but at that point it was too late to turn back so they went ahead with the Vita plan. I don't think they are terribly surprised at the outcome, TBH. Maybe at the degree of it, but not that they are doing poorly in general. The way they have behaved since Vita's launch reinforces that belief.

The only thing i don't understand about this is that their Japanese line-up at launch and even till now has been terrible. If anything the games seemed to be more targeted towards the west. If their strategy was to really take Japan by storm it was a pretty poor effort.
 

yon61

Member
Apr 14, 2012
583
0
0
Considering how the game did in Japan I wouldn't hold out too much hope. I did my part but I've been holding off on playing it until I pick up an XL.

I'm pretty sure that it was confirmed earlier in the thread that the ~30K estimate for the PSP was way too high.

Because the Wii outsold the PSP and Vita combined, which is quite staggering.
 

Saint Gregory

Member
Jan 4, 2006
14,145
0
0
Because the Wii outsold the PSP and Vita combined, which is quite staggering.

Pretty sad for everyone involved actually. I don't think that the VG market was ever this depressed during gen transitions in the past so the hardware makers should really be concerned that they may have lost the attention of a significant number of new gamers by dragging this gen out for so long.
 
Jun 7, 2004
21,700
3
0
48
NM USA
Pretty sad for everyone involved actually. I don't think that the VG market was ever this depressed during gen transitions in the past so the hardware makers should really be concerned that they may have lost the attention of a significant number of new gamers by dragging this gen out for so long.

It's the ridiculously high pricepoints of oldass systems that really hurts during an ongoing WW recession when retail sales have plummeted across the board. Current video game sales should not be looked at in a vacuum since there are so many strong and relatively unique factors involved.
 

Saint Gregory

Member
Jan 4, 2006
14,145
0
0
It's the ridiculously high pricepoints of oldass systems that really hurts during an ongoing WW recession when retail sales have plummeted across the board. Current video game sales should not be looked at in a vacuum since there are so many strong and relatively unique factors involved.
I could be wrong but I don't believe that entertainment devices are usually hit as hard as other markets during economic downturns and depressions but it's true that all three hardware makers should have recognized earlier this year that their consoles needed price cuts to avoid the massive drop in sales that we're seeing now.

Game releases have seemed fairly weak as well but with everyone gearing up for next gen that's probably to be expected.
2007 for comparison.

Code:
           Wii        X360       PS3       PS2        NDS        PSP         GBA
July       425,000    170,000    159,000   222,000    405,000    214,000      87,000
The PSP number is the biggest shocker to me. It was hard to remember that it was once doing that well in the States.
 
Jun 7, 2004
21,700
3
0
48
NM USA
I could be wrong but I don't believe that entertainment devices are usually hit as hard as other markets during economic downturns and depressions but it's true that all three hardware makers should have recognized earlier this year that their consoles needed price cuts to avoid the massive drop in sales that we're seeing now.
Well, there has never been what we're now experiencing, not on this level as long as home video games have been around as an established industry. With the market contraction, a lot of platforms and games will suffer since there's saturation of gaming platforms and games released to consider, as well as growing competition from ubitquitous mobile platforms (cell phones) that give many enough of what they need to avoid spending more on far more expensive home and dedicated handhelds. Yes, phone games take from the very same pool of limited time and and money to satisfy the urge to waste time or play something for many. As well, there's an entire generation of kids who have now grown up with cheap or 'free' smart phones given to them by parents on family plans...with many generations to come. DD has leveled the playing field for the market to expand beyond the big three. This time, now, is nothing like it has ever been since the advent of electronic gaming.
 

Dr. Zoidberg

Member
Nov 6, 2004
8,239
31
1,300
The only thing i don't understand about this is that their Japanese line-up at launch and even till now has been terrible. If anything the games seemed to be more targeted towards the west. If their strategy was to really take Japan by storm it was a pretty poor effort.

As usual, they were counting on 3rd parties to take care of games for Japan. Sony's first party output is always mostly western-focused on ps3 and was on psp as well. Unfortunately the third party killer app never appeared.
 

Saint Gregory

Member
Jan 4, 2006
14,145
0
0
Well, there has never been what we're now experiencing, not on this level as long as home video games have been around as an established industry. With the market contraction, a lot of platforms and games will suffer since there's saturation of gaming platforms and games released to consider, as well as growing competition from ubitquitous mobile platforms (cell phones) that give many enough of what they need to avoid spending more on far more expensive home and dedicated handhelds. Yes, phone games take from the very same pool of limited time and and money to satisfy the urge to waste time or play something for many. As well, there's an entire generation of kids who have now grown up with cheap or 'free' smart phones given to them by parents on family plans...with many generations to come. DD has leveled the playing field for the market to expand beyond the big three. This time, now, is nothing like it has ever been since the advent of electronic gaming.

I'm really interested in seeing if the market really has changed that much going into next generation. I still believe that software dictates the market and as long as certain kinds of software stays exclusive to consoles the smartphone revolution won't have a major impact on their sales.

Nintendo isn't going to be able to get away with selling brain training apps for $40 anymore as those types of experiences are easily replicated on tablets/phones so they are going to have to find new lines of software to bring in new customers for their handhelds but I don't think things are nearly as dire as most analysts are predicting.
 
Aug 30, 2007
14,206
0
0
As usual, they were counting on 3rd parties to take care of games for Japan. Sony's first party output is always mostly western-focused on ps3 and was on psp as well. Unfortunately the third party killer app never appeared.

Which is really such a weird mentality that seems destined to lead them into a situation like this.

I'm really interested in seeing if the market really has changed that much going into next generation. I still believe that software dictates the market and as long as certain kinds of software stays exclusive to consoles the smartphone revolution won't have a major impact on their sales.

Nintendo isn't going to be able to get away with selling brain training apps for $40 anymore as those types of experiences are easily replicated on tablets/phones so they are going to have to find new lines of software to bring in new customers for their handhelds but I don't think things are nearly as dire as most analysts are predicting.

I may be crazy but i actually feel kind of confident that next gen consoles will do well.

I think handhelds just need to adapt to the market. Game prices and HW prices simply can't remain as high as they are. I think a decently priced piece of HW with plenty of good games that don't retail for a crazy amount like $40 could do great.

I think you either need to go all the way with your handheld and make it into a multimedia device or go the complete other way and focus on a games machine and get everything as cheap as possible.

Everyone already has a phone and that's the one device they will always have on them at all times. They don't need their handheld to do any of that stuff. To me if it doesn't directly enhance the gaming experience i don't want it on my handheld.
 

M3d10n

Member
Aug 28, 2006
11,466
1
0
Which is really such a weird mentality that seems destined to lead them into a situation like this.



I may be crazy but i actually feel kind of confident that next gen consoles will do well.

I think handhelds just need to adapt to the market. Game prices and HW prices simply can't remain as high as they are. I think a decently priced piece of HW with plenty of good games that don't retail for a crazy amount like $40 could do great.

I think you either need to go all the way with your handheld and make it into a multimedia device or go the complete other way and focus on a games machine and get everything as cheap as possible.

Everyone already has a phone and that's the one device they will always have on them at all times. They don't need their handheld to do any of that stuff. To me if it doesn't directly enhance the gaming experience i don't want it on my handheld.

I agree with this. Nintendo is dancing around the problem for now, but they will have to lower the entry price on their games sooner or later. However, they first need to move much deeper into DD and DLC since physical retail is much less flexible.
 

Saint Gregory

Member
Jan 4, 2006
14,145
0
0
I may be crazy but i actually feel kind of confident that next gen consoles will do well.

I think handhelds just need to adapt to the market. Game prices and HW prices simply can't remain as high as they are. I think a decently priced piece of HW with plenty of good games that don't retail for a crazy amount like $40 could do great.

I think you either need to go all the way with your handheld and make it into a multimedia device or go the complete other way and focus on a games machine and get everything as cheap as possible.

Everyone already has a phone and that's the one device they will always have on them at all times. They don't need their handheld to do any of that stuff. To me if it doesn't directly enhance the gaming experience i don't want it on my handheld.

I think Nintendo understands that they can't replace smartphones which is why they've been focusing on ways to convince people to carry both their phone and their 3DS with smartpass but I'm not sure how effective that's been.

I see loads of people smartphone gaming on the commute to and from work and very few dedicated handhelds but when I think about it I saw loads of people playing stuff like brickbreaker and tetris on the dumb phones before the smartphone revolution ever began.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
Mar 22, 2007
23,612
2
1,130
Even that would sell better than vita
True, but not only the Vita, it would outsell every system on the market.


The Game Boy Advance, a SIX year old console at the time selling 87,000... good grief... the Vita is DEAD.
The GBA was king. Not only was the game library great, but the price of the system itself was crazy low. I know that it was $79.99 in 2004, how much was the price in 2007? Even with no pricedrop in those 3 years, $80 is still very cheap. Imagine getting a 3DS or a Vita for $80 today (or around $90 if we concider inflation). The price alone makes this an unfair comparison in my opinion. And the handheld market was also much stronger in 2007. Just look at the DS sales.
 

charsace

Member
Mar 23, 2007
26,595
0
0
2k Basketball has become Madden like. EA really screwed up all these years by not focusing on basketball like they do Football.
 

b3b0p

Member
Aug 23, 2010
1,722
2
660
Stillwater, OK
Every month that top 10 gets uglier. The entire top 10 this time is total crap. Depressing.

I bought a PS2 this month to contribute to August NPD.
 

Petrae

Member
Nov 19, 2006
6,137
2,904
1,405
49
West Springfield, MA
www.youtube.com
Every month that top 10 gets uglier. The entire top 10 this time is total crap. Depressing.

What new releases have there been, though? NCAA has been accounted for. Theatrhythm doesn't have a huge installed userbase yet. And... that's it.

New releases have been relatively slow this year, too. Some blame falls on the shoulders of publishers for not spreading their releases out and back-loading the year with games once again while leaving certain months high and dry.
 

Saint Gregory

Member
Jan 4, 2006
14,145
0
0
Every month that top 10 gets uglier. The entire top 10 this time is total crap. Depressing.

I bought a PS2 this month to contribute to August NPD.

Ever since the change to the combined top 10 the list has looked like that. Without individual game sales the NPD list is going to look like an aggregate of bad tastes forever :(
Lots of curiosity about PSP numbers, I see. Less than 15K.
Wow, even worse than I expected. It's almost like the release of the Vita hurt Sony's overall handheld market in both the US and Japan. Weird...
 

terrisus

Member
Feb 8, 2012
40,876
18
945
Ever since the change to the combined top 10 the list has looked like that. Without individual game sales the NPD list is going to look like an aggregate of bad tastes forever :(

Indeed, the top 10 list that we're given now is as much (if not more) about how many platforms the game was released on.

Taking a look down the top 10 list from the start, the games were released on the following number of platforms:
2, 7, 5, 3, 3, 5, 3, 6, 4, 3

Pretty much the only time we see a single-platform game in there is a Nintendo blockbuster (or something like Diablo 3). Other than that, any single-platform game, and even most 2-platform games, are going to be drowned out by games which sold less per platform, but just had more platforms they were selling on.
 

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
1,590
The GBA was king. Not only was the game library great, but the price of the system itself was crazy low. I know that it was $79.99 in 2004, how much was the price in 2007? Even with no pricedrop in those 3 years, $80 is still very cheap. Imagine getting a 3DS or a Vita for $80 today (or around $90 if we concider inflation). The price alone makes this an unfair comparison in my opinion.

$99 is the sweet spot for handhelds. Not surprising to see DS get a resurgence after DSi finally gets there with stock still on shelves.
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,527
0
0
Isn't DS older and selling more now? :p

Difference being Nintendo actively tried to kill the GBA, They had try as hard as possible to kill it off to save the DS. And yet the GBA while trying to be killed off is still doing better than Vita.

Edit: If dedicated handhelds are going to survive they need to be 99-130 dollars going forward in my opinion. I think the 3DS XL is going to have a very limited effect at 199. It's too damn high for the mass market for a device like that.
 

Kazerei

Banned
Nov 25, 2010
12,122
1
0
Difference being Nintendo actively tried to kill the GBA, They had try as hard as possible to kill it off to save the DS. And yet the GBA while trying to be killed off is still doing better than Vita.

Edit: If dedicated handhelds are going to survive they need to be 99-130 dollars going forward in my opinion. I think the 3DS XL is going to have a very limited effect at 199. It's too damn high for the mass market for a device like that.

I disagree, Nintendo didn't actively try to kill the GBA. They introduced the GB Micro and continued to release a number of games. Here's a list of GBA games published by Nintendo of America and released after DS's launch.

The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap
Mario Party Advance
Pokemon Emerald Version
Fire Emblem: The Sacred Stones
WarioWare: Twisted!
Yoshi Topsy-Turvy
DK King of Swing
Donkey Kong Country 3
Dr. Mario / Puzzle League
Mario Tennis: Power Tour
Final Fantasy IV
Drill Dozer
Tales of Phantasia
Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Red Rescue Team
Final Fantasy V
Final Fantasy VI

If you look at Japan, the list is shorter but not by much. You can take out Zelda, Pkmn Emerald, Fire Emblem, WarioWare, and the third party games; but add on Mother 1+2, Mother 3, and Rhythm Tengoku.

I think Nintendo did a good job of gradually shifting support from GBA to DS. It took awhile (pretty much all of 2005), but it was smooth. They didn't just kill off the GBA and switch to DS. A better example of that would be the Xbox to Xbox 360 transition. Microsoft killed the Xbox and pushed everything on to Xbox 360. I'd say that strategy paid off too.

Nintendo has done a poor job transitioning from DS to 3DS though. And the Wii pretty much fell off a cliff, lol.
 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,527
0
0
Well I don't think they did right after. In 2006 though I think they were actively trying to kill off the GBA so DS sales would go even higher. Most of that list and the Micro I believe came in 2005 which Nintendo had plans for long before they realized the DS was selling like shit all through 2005 in America.
 

MoeB

Member
May 2, 2007
2,291
0
1,110
Playstation
What on earth propelled Batman back into the Top Ten?

Dark Knight Rises maybe?

 

metalslimer

Member
Jun 9, 2012
26,527
0
0
Are you kidding me? That was back when the mobile gaming market was nothing but handheld systems. Times have changed.

To be fair I don't think any system has ever sold 47k that wasn't dead or on its way towards dying in its later years. Even the DS doing its absolutely horrible 2005 never dipped that low.So the best you could call Vita right now is on life support but not flatlined. I do wonder how much more Vita would even be selling without the rest of the mobile market.