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NPD March 2012 Sales Results [Up3: ME3 Total, Binary Domain]

People are saying that the PS3 had it's sales constantly rise after launch as the price lowered and there was no specific point where things turned around. The exact same thing has happened with the 360 but instead of constantly lowering the price, they have constantly added value to the product.

There was no "turnaround" point because there was no point when the sales pattern changed. (until the most recent Sony fiscal year where sales will have slightly fallen off from the year prior signifying a turning point downward from the peak.)
So the point between the PS3's 11th and 12th quarter doesn't strike you as a specific point where an upward shift in quarterly sales occurred? The $299 price cut seems a significant point in the timeline compared to earlier cuts.

kk3P6.jpg
 
So the point between the PS3's 11th and 12th quarter doesn't strike you as a specific point where an upward shift in quarterly sales occurred? The $299 price cut seems a significant point in the timeline compared to earlier cuts.

$100 price cut from $600 is 17%
$100 price cut from $400 is 25%

As you keep lowering the price by a set amount, that price cut will have a bigger impact. Had they gone $50 in 2009 followed by $50 in 2010(which would have had the % cut be more in line with the first cuts), then the curve would be smoother. I think the cut in 2009 just shifted sales ahead in the curve, it didn't actually increase the overall amount they were going to sell, which is why sales ended up dropping last FY despite another price cut.
 
$100 price cut from $600 is 17%
$100 price cut from $400 is 25%

As you keep lowering the price by a set amount, that price cut will have a bigger impact. Had they gone $50 in 2009 followed by $50 in 2010(which would have had the % cut be more in line with the first cuts), then the curve would be smoother. I think the cut in 2009 just shifted sales ahead in the curve, it didn't actually increase the overall amount they were going to sell, which is why sales ended up dropping last FY despite another price cut.
I'm not sure I entirely follow. Are you just saying that price cut size in percentage terms scales linearly with sales increase?

I think I agree with you about the relative impact of the price cuts but for different reasoning?

I always thought that in terms of pricing a shift from $599 to $499 didn't have as much impact than a shift from $399 to $299 not because the relative % change is greater, but because the latter shifts the product below a very distinct psychological price barrier for a console.

I.e. I don't think a 25% drop - from $599 to $450 or $499 to $375 - would have produced the same degree of long term impact. And I actually don't really think early price cuts caused an overall rise in long term sales at all - looking at rolling 12 month shipments - more like a temporary blip, while the increased sales from the $299 cut were more sustained.

vK6W5.jpg


Likewise while I agree and don't really think the recent price cut has done anything to raise sales - not because sales have been shifted forward, or because the % change was only 17% rather than 25%, but because no psychological price barrier ($199) was broken.

I probably sound horribly convoluted now. And I could be completely wrong about this regardless, just musing.
 

mujun

Member
Hindsight is 20/20.

What did the PS3 have going for it at launch?
  • Playstation brand
  • Nominal third party support

What did the PS3 have going against it at launch?
  • $599
  • Architecture developers hated
  • Lack of compelling software
  • Highly inferior online infrastructure
  • Releasing a year later than its most comparable competition

The turning point would be around Q3 2009 imo; the PS3 Slim essentially relaunched the product, $299, titles like Uncharted 2 and LittleBigPlanet were earning praise, PSN had become far more functionally comparable. (I also consider the launch of the 360S a significant moment in the 360's timeline - it firmly shed the build quality perception from the RROD debacle).

Are people saying that the PS3 as it is today is the same as it was at launch? Or are people saying the Playstation brand is the only reason the PS3 has survived?

First off, remove the compelling software thing. That pretty much every consoles launch lineup except for some very rare exceptions.

Maybe people are saying that it's not as black and white as certain people would like you to believe. They did turn things around this gen, they deserve praise for that. On the other hand they squandered a brand name that could have put them at the top with less effort. Look at their online, PS3 fans forgive them it's initial crappiness (and have for years) because of their rep and it's price.
 

Shaheed79

dabbled in the jelly
So did Sony request that Vita numbers not be disclosed publicly this month or what? I honestly never knew how that stuff works.

Btw is anyone else having trouble finding the February NPD 2007 topic? I've tried just about every search combination I can think of and I still cannot find it. If someone has it saved can you post the link please?
 

rpmurphy

Member
So did Sony request that Vita numbers not be disclosed publicly this month or what? I honestly never knew how that stuff works.

Btw is anyone else having trouble finding the February NPD 2007 topic? I've tried just about every search combination I can think of and I still cannot find it. If someone has it saved can you post the link please?
NPD's have an archive sub-forum.
Hardware: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=146545
Software: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=146548
 

Slavik81

Member
Wow. I'd never even heard of Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City until I saw an ad for it on TV yesterday.

I guess I haven't been paying much attention to the gaming industry these days.
 

Auto_aim1

MeisaMcCaffrey
That still doesn't answer what was so great about it. I'm curious too. Everything I saw looked pretty bland and boring. I'm not trying to shit on it, I just had no incentive to go and buy it, I'd love to hear what people who did enjoy it liked about it.
There are plenty of positive in-depth impressions in the OT, but I think the most surprising thing about Binary Domain is definitely its story. It keeps you guessing till the end, and the polished gameplay and responsive controls makes it fun to get there, not to mention it is satisfying to take down enemies in this game. It has a lot of good boss fights and they completely nailed most of the things that makes third-person shooters good. The cover system is a little iffy, though.

The characters look generic but somehow have a lot of depth as well. I think its a combination of things which a demo cannot properly convey. The game does look generic at a first glance, and I really don't think anyone can deny that. Hopefully, it will sell well once it hits Steam due to word of mouth, but I doubt it. I don't think we'll be ever seeing Binary Domain 2, they could have really improved on this. Seeing RE: ORC sell so much compared to this is so hilarious and sad at the same time.
 
Maybe.

I dunno why you went change the subject about worldwide thing, I only fixed my date for my country.
Because I was responding to a poster referring to JP+US and worldwide figures to support his "PS3 is the current market leader... for the last 3 months only" schpiel.
 

iceatcs

Junior Member
Because I was responding to a poster referring to JP+US and worldwide figures to support his "PS3 is the current market leader... for the last 3 months only" schpiel.

I know, but what the reason when I only fixed the date order, not which date PS3 out.


my land - DD/MM/YYYY
Other fake lands - MM/DD/YYYY

get it?
 
^^^

They used to. Even during the dark days of quoting the numbers for the "Playstation Family".

If the Vita sold over 200k, then why is Sony not disclosing the numbers? Those numbers aren't bad enough to forgo releasing the exact figures. So what is the deal here?

Maybe every last one of those units is a WiFi only model. They would be if customers were smart.
 

Tratorn

Member
If the Vita sold over 200k, then why is Sony not disclosing the numbers? Those numbers aren't bad enough to forgo releasing the exact figures. So what is the deal here?

Why don't they mention the PS3 in the press release even when it has good numbers? They just don't release the numbers.
 
If the Vita sold over 200k, then why is Sony not disclosing the numbers? Those numbers aren't bad enough to forgo releasing the exact figures. So what is the deal here?

Here's the truth Sony learnt the hard way about Press releases. They're gonna get called out for mentioning numbers when they're good, but not mention them when they're bad. You can't "celebrate" momentum specifically just for one month when the next month it could be complete shit and you don't say nothing.

Your PR's would look bipolar and be a laughing stock. They got tired of trying to trying to spin anything for a long time, in fact I think they wish the NPD's just went away altogether and the public knew nothing.

The PS4 will be interesting since it will have to stand on it's own two feet and face competition that people aren't writing off before the first systems are sold. Each system next gen will start off 100% equal and it will be epic.

I'd prefer if more ppl would see MS to be the underdog next gen. I'm sure alot of ppl still do this late in the gen. Just for the laughs like in this thread of course.
 

Shaheed79

dabbled in the jelly
I honestly do not keep up on sales threads these days, so please excuse my ignorance. If Sony doesn't release numbers, then why is the source, or sources, who are releasing all of the other hardware numbers not releasing the Vita numbers? I remember we got them last month so why not this month?
 
Well that's certainly not true. MS have proven themselves perfectly capable of eating larger losses than the ps3. Hell, Nintendo could afford a ps3-sized flop right now.

Again, the PS3 was building on momentum of the PS2 both in mindshare of gamers and developers. A $600 and hard to develop for Xbox would not have gotten support for exclusive games like the next Final Fantasy or Metal Gear Solid before it even launched. No one would have supported it and it would have died like the 3DO. Only Sony and only after the success of the PS2 could a company pull that off IMO.
 

Kazerei

Banned
I honestly do not keep up on sales threads these days, so please excuse my ignorance. If Sony doesn't release numbers, then why is the source, or sources, who are releasing all of the other hardware numbers not releasing the Vita numbers? I remember we got them last month so why not this month?

The sources for most hardware numbers are official press releases or statements from Microsoft, Nintendo, and the NPD. Sony's press releases rarely give hardware numbers, so we have to estimate their numbers using stats from other PRs and math.

For example, this month Nintendo said that nearly 175k Wiis were sold, and Microsoft said that 371k Xbox 360s were sold, and that represents 42% of the home console unit share. So with some math, that means roughly 337k PS3s were sold.

Last month we were able to estimate Vita's hardware numbers from this statement by Anita Frazier, NPD analyst: "Overall, hardware unit sales increased by 62 percent over January without the Vita included. Including PS Vita sales, that increase is 87 percent." We don't actually know what total hardware unit sales were, because we didn't have any numbers for PS2 and PSP. However the range 220k-230k was suggested, and this was verified to be accurate.

This month we don't have anything from official statements to estimate Vita's hardware numbers, just some vague leaks from forum members.
 

jcm

Member
Again, the PS3 was building on momentum of the PS2 both in mindshare of gamers and developers. A $600 and hard to develop for Xbox would not have gotten support for exclusive games like the next Final Fantasy or Metal Gear Solid before it even launched. No one would have supported it and it would have died like the 3DO. Only Sony and only after the success of the PS2 could a company pull that off IMO.

You think MS would have gone bankrupt if the 360 flopped? Come on.
 

donny2112

Member
You think MS would have gone bankrupt if the 360 flopped? Come on.

Microsoft probably would've marginalized the division as a losing effort. Maybe put its games on other systems in exchange for getting more of their software into it. Microsoft wouldn't have died, but Xbox efforts probably wouldn't remain the mainstay of the E&D division, either.
 

jcm

Member
Microsoft probably would've marginalized the division as a losing effort. Maybe put its games on other systems in exchange for getting more of their software into it. Microsoft wouldn't have died, but Xbox efforts probably wouldn't remain the mainstay of the E&D division, either.

MS have proven they will throw billions of dollars at a strategically important division. They did it with Xbox, and they continue to do it with Bing/Online. To claim they would suddenly give up on a successful venture due to a single misfire is to fundamentally not understand MS.
 
MS have proven they will throw billions of dollars at a strategically important division. They did it with Xbox, and they continue to do it with Bing/Online. To claim they would suddenly give up on a successful venture due to a single misfire is to fundamentally not understand MS.

There would be nothing successful about the Xbox venture if the 360 had flopped. They had been doing a lot of work on smart tv stuff and shelved it all when the 360 took off in popularity. Had the 360 flopped, I'm guessing they would have shelved the xbox hardware program and focused on the smart tv set top boxes instead.
 

DamSea

Member
MS have proven they will throw billions of dollars at a strategically important division. They did it with Xbox, and they continue to do it with Bing/Online. To claim they would suddenly give up on a successful venture due to a single misfire is to fundamentally not understand MS.

Yeah... just look at Zune media players.
 

jcm

Member
There would be nothing successful about the Xbox venture if the 360 had flopped. They had been doing a lot of work on smart tv stuff and shelved it all when the 360 took off in popularity. Had the 360 flopped, I'm guessing they would have shelved the xbox hardware program and focused on the smart tv set top boxes instead.

Well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. I think MS decided xbox was important, and thus would have stuck with it. Obviously, neither one of us can prove our guess.

Yeah... just look at Zune media players.

Sure, look at Zune media players. 5 generations of a failed product. They only gave up when they realized that the dedicated media player market was dying and the battleground had shifted to smartphones. So they shifted all of the zune stuff to the phone department and started shoveling cash there.
 

donny2112

Member
To claim they would suddenly give up on a successful venture due to a single misfire is to fundamentally not understand MS.

Of course they wouldn't. Good thing that wasn't what was being discussed. If 360 had flopped and overall lost money like the Xbox, it would've been the second major misfire in that area. Microsoft doesn't just throw money at a black hole forever. :p
 

SmokedMeat

Gamer™
Well that's certainly not true. MS have proven themselves perfectly capable of eating larger losses than the ps3. Hell, Nintendo could afford a ps3-sized flop right now.

It's one thing to be able to afford it, but Sony did overcome a TON of negative publicity, the loss of formerly exclusive franchises, multiplatform ports that were inferior to their cheaper competition, and had to work with an extremely high price point.

Not trying to defend the myriad of mistakes they've made, but I do have to give them some credit for not pulling a "Sega" and killing the system off early.
 

jman2050

Member
Not trying to defend the myriad of mistakes they've made, but I do have to give them some credit for not pulling a "Sega" and killing the system off early.

They wouldn't have done that anyway, given the enviable position they were at the start of the generation as opposed to Sega bleeding money for several years before the Dreamcast even came out.

I'm more interested in what happens next generation. This time, there really ISN'T any room for error for Sony.
 
They wouldn't have done that anyway, given the enviable position they were at the start of the generation as opposed to Sega bleeding money for several years before the Dreamcast even came out.

I'm more interested in what happens next generation. This time, there really ISN'T any room for error for Sony.

Sony *needed* the PS3 to have Blu-ray, they wouldn't have killed off their cheapest Blu-ray trojan horse regardless of how the games side did. The PS3 isn't just a game system to Sony.

Next gen each company will be called out 100% for their errors. Like you said, there will be no wiggle room since gamers will have options that are all equal from a third party point of view. Something that has never happened.
 
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