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NPD November 2012 Results [Up6: Black Ops 2, Halo 4, Most Wanted, Assassin's Creed 3]

test_account

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They certainly did to a large extent, but they at least have Mario/Pokemon to fall back on and didn't overengineer the system to the point that a first-year price cut was unaffordable.
That is true. I'm not sure that i would say that the Vita is exactly overengieered however, because i dont think that either Nintendo or Sony design their systems to account for a 1st year pricedrop. There is also the long term planing about hardware power. This hasnt been a problem before, but only time will tell if time has changed regarding this. But maybe you mean it more in the way if this senario (having to do a pricedrop) because very necessary. In that way, Nintendo had more opportunities to drop the price compared to Sony, that is also true indeed.


They also did a far better job of courting Japanese third parties pre-launch, so they also have their home territory to fall back on even if they can't reverse or halt current trends in the West.
Was this mostly because of Nintendo or the 3rd parties doing the choices themself? The 3DS is afterall the successor to the biggest selling system in Japan.
 

lunchwithyuzo

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With Game Boy ideologies, you mean a machine just to play games? I don't know how many people would consider it, despite the possible very low price. It's true associating your image with the iPad is bad, but IMHO just going back to be just a games machine, in times like this where media / social integrations are felt as needed, would be equally bad.
I meant more from a price perspective. If Nintendo really wants to their software to hold value and have digital parity, they desparately need to explore more ranging pricing from the outset. Looking back, their only 3DS games so far that should've been $39.99 are Zelda, SM3DL, Mario Kart, Kid Icarus, NSMB2 and Paper Mario. Everything else should've been $29.99 (Star Fox, Mario Tennis, etc) to $19.99 (Tetris Axis, Brain-Age, etc).

Game focus is what separates them from iOS/Android devices though, the emphasis there is fine as is. Price is the bigger issue.
 
Thanks Quentyn. I added the chart with some analysis:

01. Call of Duty: Black Ops 2 (360, PS3, PC, Wii U) Activision Blizzard - 7.5M (We know that PS3/360 accounted for 7.4M, and PC > Wii U. MW3 did 9 million, BLOPS 8.4, and MW2 did 6.1 million. This had one less week than normal.)
02. Halo 4 (360) Microsoft - 3.2M (Reach and Halo 3 did 3.3 million, but with about half or less the days. I'm unclear on if this counts bundles.)
03. Assassin's Creed III (360, PS3, Wii U, PC) Ubisoft - 2.9M (The previous three games did around 1.1-1.3 million in their opening month. This is insane growth.)
04. Just Dance 4 (Wii, 360, Wii U, PS3) Ubisoft
05. Madden NFL 13 (360, PS3, Wii, PSV, Wii U) Electronic Arts
06. Skylanders Giants (Wii, 360, Ps3, 3DS, Wii U) Activision Blizzard
07. Need For Speed: Most Wanted 2012 (PS3, 360, PSV, PC) Electronic Arts - 509K (Hot Pursuit did 417K, and The Run did a fair bit worse than Hot Pursuit.)
08. NBA 2K13 (360, PS3, Wii, PSP, Wii U, PC) Take-Two Interactive
09. WWE 13 (360, PS3, Wii) THQ
10. FIFA Soccer 13 (360, PS3, Wii, PSV, 3DS, Wii U, PSP) Electronic Arts

---


Assuming the rounded figures are reasonably close to their rounding.

Sales Order:
1: PC
2: WiiU

some old figures:
MW2 = 170,000 PC
BLOPS PC < Wii
MW3 < 100k PC
Wait, why are we assuming anything above Black Ops 2 is above 100K?

If there's 100K to split between PC and Wii U, and the PC is on top, that means BLOPS 2 Wii U is below 50K, and thus the others (sans Mario) could be below 100K as well unless I'm missing a datapoint here.
 

Mpl90

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I meant more from a price perspective. If Nintendo really wants to their software to hold value and have digital parity, they desparately need to explore more ranging pricing from the outset. Looking back, their only 3DS games so far that should've been $39.99 are Zelda, SM3DL, Mario Kart, Kid Icarus, NSMB2 and Paper Mario. Everything else should've been $29.99 (Star Fox, Mario Tennis, etc) to $19.99 (Tetris Axis, Brain-Age, etc).

Game focus is what separates them from iOS/Android devices though, the emphasis there is fine as is. Price is the bigger issue.
Aaaaah, in that case you can count me in for this battle! Absolutely! But this is an overall gaming market problem, right now. Still, you're absolutely right. :D
 

lunchwithyuzo

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Was this mostly because of Nintendo or the 3rd parties doing the choices themself? The 3DS is afterall the successor to the biggest selling system in Japan.
A bit of both, but we know Nintendo went out of their way for securing PSP-fare like Monster Hunter and Kingdom Hearts.

Sony was the one who evidently built Vita and then just expected 3rd parties to lineup going by Yoshida's comments. If Nintenfo had done that then 3DS would have a significantly weaker lineup imo.
 

test_account

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Wait, why are we assuming anything above Black Ops 2 is above 100K?

If there's 100K to split between PC and Wii U, and the PC is on top, that means BLOPS 2 Wii U is below 50K, and thus the others (sans Mario) could be below 100K as well unless I'm missing a datapoint here.
I think he means that since Black Ops 2 WiiU + PC did about 100k, it means that every WiiU game under Black Ops 2 is guaranteed to be under 100k. Zombie U and Scriblenauts can also be under 100k though, that is true.


A bit of both, but we know Nintendo went out of their way for securing PSP-fare like Monster Hunter and Kingdom Hearts.

Sony was the one who evidently built Vita and then just expected 3rd parties to lineup going by Yoshida's comments. If Nintenfo had done that then 3DS would have a significantly weaker lineup imo.
That sounds right. I think that several of big 3rd party games would have come to 3DS anyway based on it being the successor to the DS.

While i believe Nintendo did do all they can to get Monster Hunter on 3DS, is there any info on this? All i remember seeing is that Capcom said they chose the 3DS because it was the first new system to come out (nearly 1 year before the Vita).
 

lunchwithyuzo

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Wait, why are we assuming anything above Black Ops 2 is above 100K?

If there's 100K to split between PC and Wii U, and the PC is on top, that means BLOPS 2 Wii U is below 50K, and thus the others (sans Mario) could be below 100K as well unless I'm missing a datapoint here.
Sub 100k is safe, sub 50k is less so when you're deriving that figure from adding and subtracting separately sourced numbers in the millions and rounded.

With figures this low an extra 50k or so in either direction would mean little in the 360, PS3 or overall context, but that could be a hell of a lot on the 425k Wii U base.
 
I think he means that since Black Ops 2 WiiU + PC did about 100k, it means that every WiiU game under Black Ops 2 is guaranteed to be under 100k. Zombie U and Scriblenauts can also be under 100k though, that is true.
If we look at it from that perspective, I think we can actually set the bar at <50K unless NPD changed their reporting sku format.

Sub 100k is safe, sub 50k is less so when you're deriving that figure from adding and subtracting separately sourced numbers in the millions and rounded.

With figures this low an extra 50k or so in either direction would mean little in the 360, PS3 or overall context, but that could be a hell of a lot on the 425k Wii U base.
Well, with rounding, that is a fair concern, since at 7.4 million we are losing that decimal.
 

Father_Brain

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Was this mostly because of Nintendo or the 3rd parties doing the choices themself? The 3DS is afterall the successor to the biggest selling system in Japan.
Possibly both? Wii U hasn't gotten equivalent out-of-the-gate support there, though some of that may be due to NCL secrecy about their 2013 lineup.
 

metalslimer

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I definitely underestimated the impact of outside forces on the dedicated handheld market. I expected there to be a slow drop not thunderous fall. Looking at the console market right now and the current players, they all have weakenesses that can be exploited. If I had to predict I would say one of the three won't be back for a 9th generation console. All 3 consoles won't will fail to sell 2/3 of this generations figures.

People can harp on about how it's only Nintendo who's going to feel the impact of tablets, but people are just starting to find their entertainment cheapeer and elsewhere. MS seems like they understand this and are going to try and tackle it head on. I think if Sony doesn't match MS step for step in terms of media features they will be in for a very bad launch. Nintendo seems to have tried to changed course to include some of these feautres in their console, but it's just not in their nature as a pure video games company to do so.The future of the gaming industry is a bright one I believe, but only if you accept that gaming is going to look completely different in 5 years.
 
Possibly both? Wii U hasn't gotten equivalent out-of-the-gate support there, though some of that may be due to NCL secrecy about their 2013 lineup.
I feel the benefit the 3DS had in Japan is that it combined being Nintendo's handheld platform with going above the hardware capabilities and inputs of the PSP, meaning it could accept both the DS market and the PSP market simultaneously.

On paper there wasn't really a downside to supporting this system if you supported either of the other two.

With the Wii U, the system is not across the board better (meaning ports are at least a bit harder), and for a fair share of Japanese console games, the Western market is far more relevant than it is for Japanese handheld titles.
 

lunchwithyuzo

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I feel the benefit the 3DS had in Japan is that it combined being Nintendo's handheld platform with going above the hardware capabilities and inputs of the PSP, meaning it could accept both the DS market and the PSP market simultaneously.

On paper there wasn't really a downside to supporting this system if you supported either of the other two.
Same could be argued for Wii U in theory. It's very much a Wii+PS3 in a similar way to 3DS being s DS+PSP.
 

Clear

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The problem with Sony not reporting numbers is we can't see how their YoY fall-off compares with MS 25-30% for the entire year. Its a shame because we are getting very close to the point where the streams will finally cross and the PS3 will overtake 360 in global (not NA) shipments.

360 only outshipped PS3 last year globally thanks to their bumper sales in NA, its traditionally their strongest-sales market by far (>40% of their entire install base) so any tail off in it is very significant to the overall health of the platform, which in turn should provide some insight into their next-gen plans.

Obviously with Wii-U in the race now there is a new unknown factor in all territories (and Nintendo has always been big in continental Europe) so even then if the PS3 yoy drop-off in the US was smaller than the 360's the result wouldn't be cut and dried.

That being said, irrespective of anything else the current gen consoles will still be the biggest sellers in 2013. Given the large number of big titles due out next year (including the multi-plat behemoth that is GTA) we still have at least one more year in the current gen race both in software and hardware, and while its crystal clear that 360 is going to remain top dog in the US, the global picture is far less definite.
 

Father_Brain

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With the Wii U, the system is not across the board better (meaning ports are at least a bit harder), and for a fair share of Japanese console games, the Western market is far more relevant than it is for Japanese handheld titles.
This is possibly true, yes.

If there aren't a decent handful of non-niche Japanese third-party announcements made in the next few weeks, it'll be fair to conclude that things aren't turning out well, DQ/MH aside.
 

metalslimer

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Same could be argued for Wii U in theory. It's very much a Wii+PS3 in a similar way to 3DS being s DS+PSP.
Except for the fact that if you're targeting a HD console, you're probably going to also be targeting the west. The Wii doesn't have a history of great successes like the DS did. Wii U should have gotten versions of Tales of Xillia 2, Resident Evil, and Yakuza though. Yakuza and the Tales franchises are perfect examples of what Nintendo should have been going for. But they seem to think that if they get a couple of big name releases everyone else will come follow.

If there aren't a decent handful of non-niche Japanese third-party announcements made in the next few weeks,
Nintendo seems to be hoping, that DQX, MH3U, and NSMBU carry the system for a long time.
 
Same could be argued for Wii U in theory. It's very much a Wii+PS3 in a similar way to 3DS being s DS+PSP.
Even if we make that statement, a Wii + PS3 still misses a fair share of the global market.

Now, if I'm making Dynasty Warriors, that isn't really relevant, but if I'm making Metal Gear Solid 5, that's more of a problem.

This is possibly true, yes.

If there aren't a decent handful of non-niche Japanese third-party announcements made in the next few weeks, it'll be fair to conclude that things aren't turning out well, DQ/MH aside.
I feel it's notable that the support they're getting is strong, but very Japanese centric, as you mention with games like DQ and MH.
 

BLACK AMERICAN PSYCHO

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Whoa...... Fifa on vita sold more than the 3ds/wii u version? I would also like to assume that the vita version of most wanted did pretty good as well. I wonder if the few western third parties on vita are happy with the sells.
 

Bisnic

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Ah right, i forgot about digital. I must be one of the few PC gamers who still buy retail when it's possible because of that stupid 60gb monthly download limit i've got.
 

metalslimer

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Whoa...... Fifa on vita sold more than the 3ds/wii u version? I would also like to assume that the vita version of most wanted did pretty good as well. I wonder if the few western third parties on vita are happy with the sells.
The combined total of all the non PS3/360/Wii Fifa is probably like 2% of sales. I only included Wii because I remember someone saying that the Wii version did all right every year.
 

lunchwithyuzo

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Even if we make that statement, a Wii + PS3 still misses a fair share of the global market.

Now, if I'm making Dynasty Warriors, that isn't really relevant, but if I'm making Metal Gear Solid 5, that's more of a problem.
Does it really? Wii+PS3 is over 50m each in America and Europe. A combined figure would be the far away market leader virtually everywhere, even in Microsoft's home territory most months. It's actually a stonger combined platform than PS1 or PS2 in raw userbase figures.

The issue is less with the concept, it's more with Nintendo's results in actually setting that into motion.


Except for the fact that if you're targeting a HD console, you're probably going to also be targeting the west. The Wii doesn't have a history of great successes like the DS did. Wii U should have gotten versions of Tales of Xillia 2, Resident Evil, and Yakuza though. Yakuza and the Tales franchises are perfect examples of what Nintendo should have been going for. But they seem to think that if they get a couple of big name releases everyone else will come follow.
Well, rumors point to Wii U getting RE6 and Nintendo even requesting a future Tales title. Yakuza I don't really consider too much of a failure to secure given 3DS can't seem to manage that either, there's something else at work there.

I think it's still premature to really come down one way or the other on Japanese 3rd party Wii U support, though I'll readily agree the timetables are starting to get worrisome.
 

SuperDowns

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I have to say that is the most predictable line-up of the Top Ten I have ever seen.

That said, I am guessing Mario U was close to the Top Ten with ~250k.
 

AHA-Lambda

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Again people, it had over a week less of tracking than it's predecessors. If anything that puts it to equal or up for the year overall. People are far to desperate to claim "Decline" witth this series, it's ridiculous.
MW3 sold less than BlOps 1, the decline is there.
 

Sho_Nuff82

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Again people, it had over a week less of tracking than it's predecessors. If anything that puts it to equal or up for the year overall. People are far to desperate to claim "Decline" witth this series, it's ridiculous.
The extra week certainly would have helped, but to the tune of several hundred thousand units, not 1.5 million. Pretty obvious that AC's jump cannibalized both it and Halo.

The problem with Sony not reporting numbers is we can't see how their YoY fall-off compares with MS 25-30% for the entire year. Its a shame because we are getting very close to the point where the streams will finally cross and the PS3 will overtake 360 in global (not NA) shipments.

360 only outshipped PS3 last year globally thanks to their bumper sales in NA, its traditionally their strongest-sales market by far (>40% of their entire install base) so any tail off in it is very significant to the overall health of the platform, which in turn should provide some insight into their next-gen plans.

Obviously with Wii-U in the race now there is a new unknown factor in all territories (and Nintendo has always been big in continental Europe) so even then if the PS3 yoy drop-off in the US was smaller than the 360's the result wouldn't be cut and dried.

That being said, irrespective of anything else the current gen consoles will still be the biggest sellers in 2013. Given the large number of big titles due out next year (including the multi-plat behemoth that is GTA) we still have at least one more year in the current gen race both in software and hardware, and while its crystal clear that 360 is going to remain top dog in the US, the global picture is far less definite.
Nintendo has only recently (ie, Wii) been successful with their consoles in continental Europe, and it fell off pretty hard much like in NA and Japan after 2010.

Sony has also been masking yoy declines in PS3 sales by combining them with the PS2. None of the companies is doing dramatically well in Europe atm.
 

Pranay

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Well, it's a bit better than that suggests, since PC retail is so bad that some games like Sleeping Dogs only release here digitally.

The last number we ever got was 2-3 million total for Modern Warfare 2, which was a ~22 million shipping game.
Is call of duty still the best selling AAA Console Port on PC ? That would be an interesting stat to know

Sony has also been masking yoy declines in PS3 sales by combining them with the PS2. None of the companies is doing dramatically well in Europe atm.
They are doing because of Vita
 

AHA-Lambda

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Can I just say I expected AC to probably be the only big franchise this year to see any n significant growth but even then that is insane. Shame cos it's the worst AC game :(

Is call of duty still the best selling AAA Console Port on PC ? That would be an interesting stat to know
Doubt it, bet skyrim pushed something ridiculous on pc.
 

omonimo

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The extra week certainly would have helped, but to the tune of several hundred thousand units, not 1.5 million. Pretty obvious that AC's jump cannibalized both it and Halo.



Nintendo has only recently (ie, Wii) been successful with their consoles in continental Europe, and it fell off pretty hard much like in NA and Japan after 2010.

Sony has also been masking yoy declines in PS3 sales by combining them with the PS2. None of the companies is doing dramatically well in Europe atm.
wut? You mean sony too? sony goes really well in europe.
 
Does it really? Wii+PS3 is over 50m each in America and Europe. A combined figure would be the far away market leader virtually everywhere, even in Microsoft's home territory most months. It's actually a stonger combined platform than PS1 or PS2 in raw userbase figures.

The issue is less with the concept, it's more with Nintendo's results in actually setting that into motion.
Demographics are an important part of userbase though.

Even these days we see huge splits between the PS3 and 360 on games like Borderlands despite the series starting out on both platforms at the same time.

To win over all that support, they have to make it seem more compelling to heavily support their platform for every genre and subgenre than to really sink as much into the Xbox 3 and PS4 versions as possible.

I would propose that the 3DS off the bat had much more appeal to the major handheld demographics in Japan than the Wii U does, which is why we haven't seen a huge universal flood of Japanese games onto the system, but for companies that primarily focus on Japan these days like Namco Bandai, we have.

Is call of duty still the best selling AAA Console Port on PC ? That would be an interesting stat to know
I'm not sure, but I think that would be a tad low given how much the Left 4 Dead series has sold. I wouldn't expect the high bar for console heavy games onto PC to be too much higher than that though.

It's definitely more of an additive platform than a core driver for traditional AAA titles, but it does at least have high margins and greatly increased "shelf space" going for it.
 

Dr. Zoidberg

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well, according to Nielson 39% of kids under 13 want a Wii U:

More want an iPad, yes, but when you look at the numbers from 2010 (the oldest I could find) iPad topped the list at 30%.
Purely anecdotal, but my wife teaches 1st-3rd grade students. Last night she made an unsolicited, offhand comment that she was sick of hearing about the Wii U. I asked her why and she said that's all her boys talk about wanting for Christmas. I was kind of shocked, to be honest. I thought Wii U was completely flying under the radar of the general populace. Of course, most of these kids won't actually GET a Wii U because they cost too much.
 

SmokyDave

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Purely anecdotal, but my wife teaches 1st-3rd grade students. Last night she made an unsolicited, offhand comment that she was sick of hearing about the Wii U. I asked her why and she said that's all her boys talk about wanting for Christmas. I was kind of shocked, to be honest. I thought Wii U was completely flying under the radar of the general populace. Of course, most of these kids won't actually GET a Wii U because they cost too much.
Anecdotal rebuffal: My missus teaches at a secondary school (11-16) and had no idea the Wii-U existed or had launched. She sure as hell knew when BLOPS2 launched as half her class were absent.
 

Rush2thestart

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Anecdotal rebuffal: My missus teaches at a secondary school (11-16) and had no idea the Wii-U existed or had launched. She sure as hell knew when BLOPS2 launched as half her class were absent.
Seems like a short-sighted comparison. A COD launch would eclipse absolutely every console launch. Unless, you're expecting the next MS and Sony consoles to sell 8 million units each in launch month.
 

Dr. Zoidberg

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Anecdotal rebuffal: My missus teaches at a secondary school (11-16) and had no idea the Wii-U existed or had launched. She sure as hell knew when BLOPS2 launched as half her class were absent.
I wonder if the age difference between the groups factors into that. These kids my wife teaches are aged 6-8. I'd imagine the reason why they don't want iPads is that every kid in the class gets one to use from the school.
 

SmokyDave

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Seems like a short-sighted comparison. A COD launch would eclipse absolutely every console launch. Unless, you're expecting the next MS and Sony consoles to sell 8 million units each in launch month.
It wasn't supposed to be a direct comparison, more an indication that it's a class full of gamers. She's a gamer too so they talk about games a lot.

I wonder if the age difference between the groups factors into that. These kids my wife teaches are aged 6-8. I'd imagine the reason why they don't want iPads is that every kid in the class gets one to use from the school.
That wouldn't surprise me at all. Diff'rent strokes for diff'rent.... demographics.
 

Pranay

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I'm not sure, but I think that would be a tad low given how much the Left 4 Dead series has sold. I wouldn't expect the high bar for console heavy games onto PC to be too much higher than that though.

It's definitely more of an additive platform than a core driver for traditional AAA titles, but it does at least have high margins and greatly increased "shelf space" going for it.
I think its skyrim, looking at the numbers.

BTW looking at the sales, would it be a right indication that the console owners are floaty and genreally buy and sell and trade quickly [based on whole gen] [also looking at the indication of yearly games] and most pc games which do well are genreally big wrpg , mmo , free to play mp where the game userbase grows gradually in long run and most pc players genreally play one or two game for a long period of time and invest on it.

Though i wonder if that is changing as well in console side at the late gen where many users are still playing bf3 , borderlands 2 etc due to DLC etc and mincraft aswell