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NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]

jetjevons

Bish loves my games!
Jun 13, 2004
7,938
1
1,410
45
Santa Monica, Ca
You know I think Nintendo having Minecraft on Wii U available from say launch would have raised the baseline of the console. Not a lot mind you but some significant amount, 5 - 6% maybe

I mean if they got it down to like $250 with a minecraft pack at launch it could've sold much better. I guess it's all hindsight though :
I actually agree. Particularly with smart Gamepad integration. Nintendo should *still* be begging Notch or looking for their own take on the genre.
 

x-Lundz-x

Member
Jan 14, 2011
8,500
0
0
But man-ing the fuck up isn't a very good business strategy. Nintendo is trying to minimize Wii U's negative impact and maximize profit margins so they can bide time until the Next Big Thing (QoL, new handheld, etc.) Wii U has just elevated itself out of a net loss per unit, why would Nintendo want to plunge the company back into a new one? :-(
I keep hearing about how Nintendo is just swimming in money and they could go 5 generations of bad consoles and be just fine. If this is the case then they can man up and take a loss on the WiiU to try and make it relevant. If they don't they might as well forget about being relevant next gen as well. The price of this console is killing it.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,150
How big a bump did Mario kart give the GameCube?
Double Dash was launched in november 2003, best november ever for Gamecube with 751k (up from 253k on october), but price was slashed to $99 at the end of september.
 

kswiston

Member
Mar 25, 2005
35,145
1
0
Canada
Software shipments worldwide launch aligned:

PSP 146 million
3DS 163 million

Software shipments outside Japan launch aligned:

PSP ????
3DS 102 million

Software shipments to Japan launch aligned:

PSP ????
3DS 61 million

Software sell-through in Japan launch aligned (Famitsu):

PSP 18 million
3DS 53 million

Sony needs to have shipped 44 million units of PSP software to Japan for 3DS overseas sales to be equal (not better, equal)
So basically, the 3DS is doing worse than the PSP in NA+EU launched aligned. Given the fact that we are just reaching the point in the PSP's lifespan where Monster Hunter took off in Japan, that worldwide comparison will probably not get much better going forward.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,150
I don't think it includes it, wasn't it mentioned earlier in the thread that 360 TF> ISS for the first month respectively?
Yes, but we don't know the precise sales for Infamous first month (only that sold less than 500k).
 

mrpeabody

Member
Mar 14, 2005
1,616
11
1,260
I keep hearing about how Nintendo is just swimming in money and they could go 5 generations of bad consoles and be just fine. If this is the case then they can man up and take a loss on the WiiU to try and make it relevant. If they don't they might as well forget about being relevant next gen as well. The price of this console is killing it.
Nothing they can do will make the Wii U relevant. I don't mean "nothing they're willing to do", I mean they literally have no options that will result in Wii U being, say, sales-competitive with XB1 over its lifetime. The design is too utterly unappealing, the hardware is too expensive to build, and the relationships with third parties are too awful.

Their best move is to use these next 18-24 months to figure out how the Nintendo corporation can compete in a world where handhelds are on the way out and the home console market is shrinking. I think in the long term that means shutting down/spinning off their hardware business. However, management will not do that until their backs are against the wall, and that is at least a full generation off.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
650
Can't believe the Cube dropped to $99 so soon.
It really shows how the GameCube's failure was a shock to Nintendo's system back then.

They shut down production of hardware, dropped the price to super-low levels, etc.


It makes Nintendo's relative silence to the Wii U even more eerie despite Wii U dramatically underperforming GameCube everywhere except Japan.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
May 23, 2006
40,795
0
0
Nothing they can do will make the Wii U relevant. I don't mean "nothing they're willing to do", I mean they literally have no options that will result in Wii U being, say, sales-competitive with XB1 over its lifetime. The design is too utterly unappealing, the hardware is too expensive to build, and the relationships with third parties are too awful.

Their best move is to use these next 18-24 months to figure out how the Nintendo corporation can compete in a world where handhelds are on the way out and the home console market is shrinking. I think in the long term that means shutting down/spinning off their hardware business. However, management will not do that until their backs are against the wall, and that is at least a full generation off.
All it takes is one game
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
650
All it takes is one game
“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”

- Satoru Iwata, 2003




"One game has the power to change everything."
- Satoru Iwata, 2013

"The fate of a video game system is often influenced greatly by the introduction of a single title."
- Satoru Iwata, 2014



wait...
 

prag16

Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,671
1,913
755
“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”

- Satoru Iwata, 2003




"One game has the power to change everything"
- Satoru Iwata, 2013

"The fate of a video game system is often influenced greatly by the introduction of a single title."
- Satoru Iwata, 2014



wait...
To be fair, while the 2013 version came across as pretty dumb even in context, the 2014 one is fairly out of context in terms of the entirety of what he said in response to the question.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
May 23, 2006
40,795
0
0
“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”

- Satoru Iwata, 2003




"One game has the power to change everything"
- Satoru Iwata, 2013

"The fate of a video game system is often influenced greatly by the introduction of a single title."
- Satoru Iwata, 2014



wait...
In all fairness that first quote was given by Iwata on opposite day. They totally just need one game
 

Some Nobody

Junior Member
Aug 8, 2013
7,489
3
365
I think this Fall will be telling. There a lot of big games coming out this year if them don't move consoles than we can start to worry about dying industry.
lol. Telling of what? These numbers are garbage because I can't think of a single major title that released in April. These are what your sales look like when the biggest titles coming out are Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Octodad: The Dadliest Catch.

Destiny's going to move some consoles--PS4 and Xbox One alike. And that's before Broketober and November hit and tap every gamers pockets for hundreds of dollars.
 

Liabe Brave

Member
Jan 23, 2007
4,509
0
1,000
Lawrenceville, GA
Ehi, it's you! My method worked quite well, see? The test went well :)
Well, here's my answer to that: your test also went badly.

I've actually searched for March-April datas for past years, and the drop-off has almost always (aside from a few exceptions) been 40% at least, if not higher, so it doesn't seem to rely that much on when Easter is. And that's another reason why I was expecting 85,000 - 90,000 3DS sold in April.
As before, I want to be perfectly clear: your attempts to bring stringent method to sales prediction are not useless or stupid. They're laudable. But my contention is, and always has been, that it's not reliable. You predicted PS4 well, but you failed on 3DS. And that sort of variability will always be the case.

Averaging historical trends and using them on a projective basis is often the best we can do, and the resulting estimates are eminently reasonable. Problem is, the world is often unreasonable. Just on last gen home consoles, your calculated 40-45% drop from March to April would fail to predict Xbox 360 in 2006, 2007, 2011, and 2013; PS3 in 2008, 2012, and 2013; and Wii in 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2012. So out of 22 prediction events, the test would fail 11. You might as well have flipped a coin.

It's important to note that this no-better-than-chance success rate is happening on elements of the very same data pool where you got your percentage factor! In other words, when data are highly variable, an average value captures very little information about the members of the set. And video game sales are variable enough that they're not even amenable to analysis by more complex and sophisticated functions.
 

MrJoe

Banned
Apr 21, 2014
268
0
0
Coppell, Texas
Nothing they can do will make the Wii U relevant. I don't mean "nothing they're willing to do", I mean they literally have no options that will result in Wii U being, say, sales-competitive with XB1 over its lifetime. The design is too utterly unappealing, the hardware is too expensive to build, and the relationships with third parties are too awful.

Their best move is to use these next 18-24 months to figure out how the Nintendo corporation can compete in a world where handhelds are on the way out and the home console market is shrinking. I think in the long term that means shutting down/spinning off their hardware business. However, management will not do that until their backs are against the wall, and that is at least a full generation off.
if you look into the recent past, the only comparable scenario is exemplified by sega. who was, ironically, nintendos old rival. if things play out in a similar fashion we would wind up with a bunch of mario (sonic) racing games. maybe a TV series. for sure their would be a bunch of cheap plastic mario toys. so not that different from what we've got currently.
 

Miles X

Member
Aug 5, 2011
9,684
0
555
Interesting to see the 360-Wii gap get small, 360 will definitely not get close to PS2's 46.2m tho.
 

Aquamarine

Member
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
650
What are the LTD's for PS4 anc XB1?
This:


NPD LTD comparisons:


LTD as of November 2013:

1) Wii U - 1.62 million (+0.48 million from PS4, +0.71 million from XBO)
2) PS4 - 1.14 million (+0.23 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 0.91 million


LTD as of December 2013:

1) Wii U - 2.10 million (+0.10 million from PS4, +0.28 million from XBO)
2) PS4 - 2.00 million (+0.18 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 1.82 million


LTD as of January 2014:

1) PS4 - 2.27 million (+0.12 million from Wii U, +0.31 million from XBO)
2) Wii U - 2.15 million (+0.19 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 1.96 million


LTD as of February 2014:

1) PS4 - 2.54 million (+0.31 million from Wii U, +0.32 million from XBO)
2) Wii U - 2.23 million (+0.01 million from XBO)
3) XBO - 2.22 million


LTD as of March 2014:

1) PS4 - 2.91 million (+0.38 million from XBO, +0.61 million from Wii U)
2) XBO - 2.53 million (+0.23 million from Wii U)
3) Wii U - 2.30 million


LTD as of April 2014:

1) PS4 - 3.11 million (+0.47 million from XBO, +0.76 million from Wii U)
2) XBO - 2.64 million (+0.29 million from Wii U)
3) Wii U - 2.35 million
 

BoboBrazil

Member
Jun 6, 2004
24,715
2
0
“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”

- Satoru Iwata, 2003




"One game has the power to change everything"
- Satoru Iwata, 2013

"The fate of a video game system is often influenced greatly by the introduction of a single title."
- Satoru Iwata, 2014



wait...
This guy is driving Nintendo right off a cliff.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
20,961
0
0
“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”

- Satoru Iwata, 2003




"One game has the power to change everything"
- Satoru Iwata, 2013

"The fate of a video game system is often influenced greatly by the introduction of a single title."
- Satoru Iwata, 2014



wait...
Heh, wow.
 

TheExecutive

Member
Jan 3, 2009
6,510
0
0
Denver, CO
In the past I guessed Sony didn't give PS3 because they were bad compared with 360 but now eve PS4 selling close to 2:1 they didn't give numbers.

So it just the company policies.
There is no reason to. Monthly sales are quite dependant on many factors and don't do much for trending which is what matters.
 

Mass Effect

Member
Apr 24, 2011
11,120
4
0
360 only which is horrible considering the hype and marketing and much larger install base.
Not really considering all that hype and marketing was for the X1 version.

They pretended like the 360 version didn't even exist, so I'd say that number is pretty good.
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
2
1,595
It really shows how the GameCube's failure was a shock to Nintendo's system back then.

They shut down production of hardware, dropped the price to super-low levels, etc.


It makes Nintendo's relative silence to the Wii U even more eerie despite Wii U dramatically underperforming GameCube everywhere except Japan.
they're probably incapable of such a large drop of the price. they went into actual panic mode with the 3ds, but didn't react much to the wii u. i think they essentially could not. the next nintendo platforms will either be incredibly affordable from the start, or there will be a lot of room to drop the price.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Jul 6, 2005
91,412
0
0
31
The PSP always had low software sales since it was always a multimedia device rather than just a game device. 3DS software seems to be doing ok at the moment. Pokemon has sold 12M since October which is over a quarter of the userbase. It had a good software lineup last year and will have again this year. I don't see why that wouldn't continue. Not with Vita failing and the struggles of the Wii U and maybe now the Xbone. It is also Nintendo's best avenue for profit in the short term and so will likely be a priority for them to maintain support.



I was thinking a $20(16%) price cut to $149. Increasing the buying population also doesn't just increase the revenue from licensing fees, it also increases the revenue from first party games.



I would say the Gamecube to Wii transition proves this to be false. The determinant of how a system sells is primarily how good it is in and of itself. Nintendo have a good reputation as an established platform provider. As long as they don't do something stupid to spoil that(like disappointing existing customers by pulling the plug on a system prematurely) any system they release has a chance to succeed on it's own merits.



The core handheld audience is children and enthusiasts and seeing as Pokemon is at 12M with the likes of Monster Hunter and Animal Crossing having good sales it seems that audience is pretty robust. What I think has fallen away is the adult handheld audience. Smartphones made the multimedia offerings from Sony redundant. Nintendo's offerings like Nintendogs and Brain Training which were designed more for adults also fell away. Handhelds to adults is always going to be a difficult sell.



I think it was doing better but Sega had thrown everything they had at it, Nintendo and Microsoft were about to enter the market and sales were likely to decline. Even if they didn't, Sega had a weak business model and were in debt. Even breaking even wasn't enough for them, they needed profit but there was no avenue for that and there was nowhere for them to go really as a Dreamcast 2 would have had even more difficulty against 3 competitors with more marketing power. That's not taking account the increasing development costs reducing profit even more. I would say it's more Sega failed than Dreamcast failed.

Wii U is at around 5-6M, it's on track to get to around 9M by next March which would be 2.5 years or halfway through a natural life cycle. With Zelda to come and whatever else they have coming it seems Wii U will get to between 15-20M. There's no new competitors on the horizon and if Nintendo can release get success with a new IP or two then they could get beyond 20M. Market conditions are also more favourable to them than Sega had since they a big price advantage over all their competitors, are the market leaders in Japan and Microsoft are struggling.
I don't really see any scenario in which Nintendo sells 20 million WiiU. You're supposing sales could actually accelerate after this year where nintendo is projecting about 3 million Wii Us shipped.

Edit: its possible Nintendo finds that one big game, of course.
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
I think that caveat is generally assumed in these discussions. Nintendo could find that big game for the Wii U to recover to more viable sales levels. Or to return the 3DS to growth. Sony could save the Vita with one big game. Microsoft could surge ahead globally if they find that one big game for the XBO. Or one big game outside their ecosystems could send them all tumbling down. It's hard to account for serendipity though.

Assuming another three FYs for the Wii U it would need a pretty unusual sales curve to reach 20M.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,150
360 only which is horrible considering the hype and marketing and much larger install base.
Because of install base I expected more from 360 version too, but all marketing focused on Xbox One affected sales on 360. In addition, software sales for last gen is dropping fast.

Considering all that, 560k first month for Titanfall 360 is a respectable number.
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
2
1,595
I don't really see any scenario in which Nintendo sells 20 million WiiU. You're supposing sales could actually accelerate after this year where nintendo is projecting about 3 million Wii Us shipped.

Edit: its possible Nintendo finds that one big game, of course.
i think 12m is the safe bet if they do reach their current forecasts. maybe 15m at the high end. 20m or more and that would mean that either nintendo is having a fire ... sale and/or somehow everyone really just needed nintendo-specific figurines and the console games to play them with.
 

Eusis

Member
Apr 15, 2011
36,667
1
615
I think that caveat is generally assumed in these discussions. Nintendo could find that big game for the Wii U to recover to more viable sales levels. Or to return the 3DS to growth. Sony could save the Vita with one big game. Microsoft could surge ahead globally if they find that one big game for the XBO. Or one big game outside their ecosystems could send them all tumbling down. It's hard to account for serendipity though.

Assuming another three FYs for the Wii U it would need a pretty unusual sales curve to reach 20M.
The only thing that'd work I think is a SLEW of those "One Big Games" which is really more a Big Game Storm. Which is exactly why Nintendo pulled to get the 3DS relevant and to help make the Wii U relevant.

But the 3DS ultimately was propped up by third parties and the raw power of Pokemon, and I don't think similar can work on Wii U when third parties are largely abandoning it, Japanese ones would rather focus on handhelds and non-Japanese ones... let's be honest, when they're doing multiplatform games Wii U's usually the least desirable. It always seems to be the platform that runs worst, and with PS4/XB1 on the stage it's hard to imagine any game preferable at all unless you either lack the other systems period (including a capable PC) or it legit IS the best version. And usually only indies will make me go Wii U over others at this point.
 

Tsundere

Banned
Aug 21, 2013
3,888
0
0
Because of install base I expected more from 360 version too, but all marketing focused on Xbox One affected sales on 360. In addition, software sales for last gen is dropping fast.

Considering all that, 560k first month for Titanfall 360 is a respectable number.
It's a significant number because that is 560k users that did not want to buy an Xbox One for the game or any games that are currently out.
 

ethomaz

Member
Mar 19, 2013
24,913
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800
37
Brazil
I did some maths....

PS4 Nov > 1.14m (US) to 2.1m (WW) = 54%
PS4 Dec > 2.00m (US) to 4.2m (WW) = 48%
PS4 Jan > 2.27m (US) to 5.3m (WW) = 43%
PS4 Feb > 2.54m (US) to 6.0m (WW) = 42%
PS4 Mar > 2.91m (US) to 7.0m (WW) = 41%

PS4 Apr: 3.11m (US) to 7.4m (WW) * using 42%
PS4 Apr: 3.11m (US) to 7.6m (WW) * using 41%
PS4 Apr: 3.11m (US) to 7.8m (WW) * using 40%
 

Brad Grenz

Member
Sep 28, 2009
4,200
1
0
Salem, OR
www.gamerblahhhg.com
I did some maths....

PS4 Nov > 1.14m (US) to 2.1m (WW) = 54%
PS4 Dec > 2.00m (US) to 4.2m (WW) = 48%
PS4 Jan > 2.27m (US) to 5.3m (WW) = 43%
PS4 Feb > 2.54m (US) to 6.0m (WW) = 42%
PS4 Mar > 2.91m (US) to 7.0m (WW) = 41%

PS4 Apr: 3.11m (US) to 7.4m (WW) * using 42%
PS4 Apr: 3.11m (US) to 7.6m (WW) * using 41%
PS4 Apr: 3.11m (US) to 7.8m (WW) * using 40%
Yeah, I was doing some napkin calculations the other day and it pretty obvious that irrespective of how Xbox One is selling in the US, it is getting demolished elsewhere. Even if you generously assume the 1.2M shipped number from Q1 equates to sales, you would calculate sales outside of the US equates to about 60% of NPD. If you believe it was realistically closer to 1M over that period that figure drops to only 30%.

When you put it all together, outside the US the Xbox One in April was outsold by at least 3.5:1, and it could possibly be as high as 20:1. Choosing the midpoint of the ranges for both Xbox One and PS4 the worldwide sales for April including the US would be right about 4:1 in PS4's favor (8:1 outside the States).
 

michaelius

Member
Jan 5, 2012
15,339
1,067
765
I think that caveat is generally assumed in these discussions. Nintendo could find that big game for the Wii U to recover to more viable sales levels. Or to return the 3DS to growth. Sony could save the Vita with one big game. Microsoft could surge ahead globally if they find that one big game for the XBO. Or one big game outside their ecosystems could send them all tumbling down. It's hard to account for serendipity though.
One game to save insert console name here is such a stupid theory.

Games rarely sell to more than 10% of owners of each console that's why you need frequent stream of good games releasing frequently so people can find game which interests them every few months.
 

Asd202

Member
Jun 18, 2013
11,412
0
0
31
Poland
lol. Telling of what? These numbers are garbage because I can't think of a single major title that released in April. These are what your sales look like when the biggest titles coming out are Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Octodad: The Dadliest Catch.

Destiny's going to move some consoles--PS4 and Xbox One alike. And that's before Broketober and November hit and tap every gamers pockets for hundreds of dollars.
That's what I meant dude...
 

robo

Member
Nov 2, 2013
972
0
0
Looking at the figures above and the fact that IF we get an updated WW figure from Sony at E3 (which will be before the May NPD results are known), are we looking at 9m by E3 for PS4 and >4.5m for xbone? I can't see May's number being huge for MS as they have basically killed sales for May with the announcement of the price cut, and not selling well outside the US?
 

Psycho_Mantis

Banned
Jul 28, 2012
26,651
0
0
“I think the biggest problem we were having was that thinking (that) one single software can make a great change on [GameCube] hardware sales. But we have come to realize by now that the circumstances have changed. No single software can do it, but rather, Nintendo, or more specifically GameCube, does need a great variety of different software which must be put into the market at appropriate intervals. Nintendo has to concentrate on something which is really unique to Nintendo.”

- Satoru Iwata, 2003




"One game has the power to change everything."
- Satoru Iwata, 2013

"The fate of a video game system is often influenced greatly by the introduction of a single title."
- Satoru Iwata, 2014



wait...
Just wooow. Board ratings can't come soon enough.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,288
0
1,375
Sony needs to have shipped 44 million units of PSP software to Japan for 3DS overseas sales to be equal (not better, equal)
I stand corrected I guess. But at April 2011 when PSP hit 70M software sales were 298M which is a tie-ratio of around 4.25 which isn't that high. I don't know what the final count is. But the problem for Vita I would say was the multimedia features being redundant in the smartphone world and not the quality of games. Price is probably an issue as well but the target audience is not conducive to portable gaming.

I keep hearing about how Nintendo is just swimming in money and they could go 5 generations of bad consoles and be just fine. If this is the case then they can man up and take a loss on the WiiU to try and make it relevant.
The reason Nintendo can go 5 generations(maybe 10 generations) of bad consoles and be just fine is because they don't 'man up' and take losses. Taking big losses would mean they might only be able to survive 2 or 3 generations. It's better to pick your battles and there'd be a better payoff taking risks with the new hardware than taking risks with big pricecuts on the Wii U.

I don't really see any scenario in which Nintendo sells 20 million WiiU. You're supposing sales could actually accelerate after this year where nintendo is projecting about 3 million Wii Us shipped.
Nintendo are projecting 9M Wii Us by next April which would be 2.5 years after launch or halfway through the lifecycle. Double that gets you to over 18M. The planned lifecycle might also have been 6 years. Iwata has stated that they are not going to abandon the Wii U and they'll be busy launching QOL in 2015. I think it's fair to assume that they'll provide at least reasonable support for the system in 2016.

Currently Wii U is at 6M. If you have the following:
2014: 3.8M
2015: 3.8M
2016: 2M

That would take it to 15.6M. Wii U sales in the west have already accelerated this year and currently it only has 1 big game. Towards the end of this year it will have least 3 big games. It might be able to get to 20M even without Nintendo doing anything too dramatic. If they have a new hit IP or two then that could push it to 25-30M. Existing IPs should be enough for them to get past 15M.