NPD Sales Results for April 2015 [Up1: Xbox One #1]

Jan 12, 2015
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Regarding price drops at E3, here's what I think Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony should do and what I think they will actually do -

1 - Microsoft

2 - Nintendo

3 - Sony
Wii U is in most need of a pricedrop. But as you said, if they're selling a Splatoon bundle for 300$ I guess we won't see any announcements about a price drop at E3. It's possible we will see one in the fall, though. It all depends what Nintendo makes out of every unit sold. They're not going to drop the price and lose money.

I really hope Microsoft will unveil a slim Xbox One. I really do. But at the same time, we should've heard something by now since virtually nothing is kept secret anymore. And in any event, Xbox One will do fine this holiday with Halo 5, Rise of the Tomb Raider and strong multiplats.

As for Sony, they don't need to drop the price yet. Microsoft were able to beat them in NA in April by a nose. I wouldn't be too concerned if I were Sony. I think they are working on attractive bundles for the holidays instead of a price drop.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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So when does Nintendo launch the next handheld? I thought it was going to be this fall, though that's obviously not happening. I can't even imagine another year of that thing atrophying. But I've been wrong on this one all along.
Release the regular n3DS + faceplates later this year and promote it as a price drop. Maybe even include a real pirce drop.
Next year simultaneously release the really really cheap n2DS, and the "third pillar" NX which will have a form factor different to the DS. My hunch is singlescreen 7" tablet format.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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It's all relative, considering that a year ago for April the XB1 was $150 more expensive (with TF included though), and the PS4 was at the same price.
I think the PS4 will win May and fare a little better than April, but June to July it should really shine with several exclusives (God of War remaster and probably Until Dawn, The Witness, Rature, Rime and a few others).
If anything I'd say May would be the month the PS4 is most likely to lose due to a lack of any big selling new releases/discounts that I know of and sales inevitably being siphoned into June for the Batman Limited Edition console. The question is will Halo advertising provide any meaningful sales momentum for XB1 in May? If it does then chances are XB1 will come out on top.
 
Feb 16, 2008
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If anything I'd say May would be the month the PS4 is most likely to lose due to a lack of any big selling new releases/discounts that I know of and sales inevitably being siphoned into June for the Batman Limited Edition console. The question is will Halo advertising provide any meaningful sales momentum for XB1 in May? If it does then chances are XB1 will come out on top.
Witcher 3 should be big.
 
Regarding price drops at E3, here's what I think Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony should do and what I think they will actually do -

1 - Microsoft

I think that Microsoft SHOULD unveil a slim model (without the power brick) and drop the price to $300 for the 500GB slim core console bundle.

................
I hope they never get rid of the external power supply. That is one thing I hate about the PS4. Having an internal power supply. If there are any issues you need to send the entire console in. Which results in major downtime. While with an external power supply, you can just easily get a replacement and have minimal downtime.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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If anything I'd say May would be the month the PS4 is most likely to lose due to a lack of any big selling new releases/discounts that I know of and sales inevitably being siphoned into June for the Batman Limited Edition console. The question is will Halo advertising provide any meaningful sales momentum for XB1 in May? If it does then chances are XB1 will come out on top.
I saw your explanation, but I really think The Witcher 3 might give the PS4 a win in May. It seems to be selling better on PS4 and IMO may move a few units, though nothing major. Furthermore, Gamestop is no longer having the $175 deal for the XB1, am I right?
 
Jun 7, 2004
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$299 would be extremely unexpected. I dont think we will see any price drop at e3. And if we see one at all this year it might be $350. $299 would be stunning and would be a big deal. That would win e3 for them easily.
There will be a price drop and going to 349 at this point in the game is a non starter. It's pretty much 299 or get laughed out of the gym IMO.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Late reply. So that's around 15% of total sales are digital. Wonder if that percentage holds true as the months go on.
Would 15% be good/accurate benchmark to estimate the digital sales of all titles?
Meh, people may argue with me, but as high as 30% of sales on Day 1 are digital, falling to the 20%+ range by end of week 1, then falling over time to 10-15%, usually because of pricing discrepancies between physical and digital (digital pricing tends to be more expensive as titles age, either due to intentional strategy or, more likely, indifference) as well as catalog titles being very difficult to discover digitally outside of flash sales and the like.

These day 1/week 1 digital as % of total percentages are going up with every release, but the longer term percentages are not... at least not yet.

For the platform splits... the Xone has a slightly higher digital share % than PS4 on the titles I've seen. The Xone also has a higher tie ratio. This could be due to lots of things. The smaller audience on Xone could be more traditional "Core" audience (therefore, higher tie ratios & likelihood to buy digital) while the PS4 has gone bigger and more "Mass" (and lower tie ratios, lower likelihood to buy digital). Or PS+ is driving down PS4 sw purchase tie ratios, while GWG is not. No real answers or research on that yet, so just theories.
 
Oct 31, 2013
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The 299 would only be major if Microsoft didn't also do a price drop to 299. It would be a seriously large blow if they didn't drop or did an official drop to 349.99 (iirc they haven't yet even though it's that price everywhere correct me if I'm wrong).

Sony doing it right at the end of their conference being after Microsofts conference would basically be a boot to the throat.
 
Feb 12, 2015
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I went back and checked some old youtube videos. And I really think there will NOT be a $350 price point for PS4. PS1, PS2 and PS3 all had major marketing push focused on "299". It seems to be the magic number that the company aims for. So I agree that Sony would bundle the hell out of PS4 first if they are not yet ready, and the first real official price drop would be the magic number.
 
Feb 22, 2012
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There will be a price drop and going to 349 at this point in the game is a non starter. It's pretty much 299 or get laughed out of the gym IMO.
If there is any price drop at all, i suspect it will be later in the year, like September. It doesn't seem like they need it yet since it is still selling so well. Dropping to $299 is unnecessarily giving away profit though.

I also think that immediately after they drop to $349 Microsoft will drop to $299 so the benefit they will see is negligible. They should only drop the price if they have gotten tye manufacturing costs down to the point where they are still profitable, which will likely come from a redesign.

I went back and checked some old youtube videos. And I really think there will NOT be a $350 price point for PS4. PS1, PS2 and PS3 all had major marketing push focused on "299". It seems to be the magic number that the company aims for. So I agree that Sony would bundle the hell out of PS4 first if they are not yet ready, and the first real official price drop would be the magic number.
They were $249.99 for a long while. I wouldn't put any stock in that.
 
Oct 26, 2014
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I hope they never get rid of the external power supply. That is one thing I hate about the PS4. Having an internal power supply. If there are any issues you need to send the entire console in. Which results in major downtime. While with an external power supply, you can just easily get a replacement and have minimal downtime.
Can't say I share the same sentiment. I hate the power brick. It has its own fan even that makes noise when you're trying to sleep turned off instant on because of it. There is no way I would prefer the big clunky thing on the off chance that the power brick off all things fails. Just seems like a silly trade to make. To have that thing always there for such a small risk of it maybe failing.
 
Oct 17, 2014
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I hope they never get rid of the external power supply. That is one thing I hate about the PS4. Having an internal power supply. If there are any issues you need to send the entire console in. Which results in major downtime. While with an external power supply, you can just easily get a replacement and have minimal downtime.
Wait, you get a replacement console while you send your power supply?
 
Oct 3, 2013
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I hope they never get rid of the external power supply. That is one thing I hate about the PS4. Having an internal power supply. If there are any issues you need to send the entire console in. Which results in major downtime. While with an external power supply, you can just easily get a replacement and have minimal downtime.
I'm not with you here.

The external power supply on the Xbox One is about the same size as a Wii. It has a light, and a fan on it.

It feels like a second console that you have to hide behind the already enormous Xbox One. I don't like it.
 
Aug 9, 2014
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I hate the power brick for Xbox One especially for such a huge console. Not sure about the Wii U but I know the Wii had a power brick and I hated that as well. The power should be internal. Out of all the problems for consoles, a power failure is probably the lowest of them all.

Like I said in my predictions, I don't see Sony lowering the price of the PS4. First, there's no reason for them to do so. They're dominating overall and even when they lose a month here and there, it's by a minimal amount. Second, with the Batman bundle already available for pre-order and it coming out after E3, there's no way Sony drops the price of the PS4. I can see a price drop for PS3 so they can start clearing them out of their inventory.

Third reason is that im sure they have some plan for the Holiday season and even if they don't and lose October, November and December to Microsoft, it won't hurt them whatsoever unless it's by a large margin which I don't see happening. Sony just has to withstand Microsoft's "all in" Holiday approach and they'll be fine because once next March hits and the Uncharted 4 bundle releases followed by SFV next April, whatever they lose in sales during the season, they will get it back with these two releases.

While it would be perfect to announce a $300 slim PS4 at this year's E3 since it's the 20th Anniversary for them in regards to NA, I don't see it happening until next year. $300 slim PS4 at E3 2016 in much more likely especially since Morpheus is supposed to release in the second half of 2016 and should be cheaper than the PS4 itself. It will come together at next year's E3 but not now.

Sony can sit back, relax and see how Microsoft does with Forza, Halo 5 and timed exclusive Rise of the Tomb Raider (which by the way im guessing will be a complete version when it releases on PS4 in a year from now) against whatever they have and even if it's nothing in comparison, until Microsoft's Xbox One crushes Sony a few months in a row, there's no reason whatsoever for them to panic and make a rushed move.

Ironically, all Sony has to do is look at what Sega did 20 years ago and quite simply, not do the same thing - make decisions that are rushed and panicked.
 
Oct 13, 2014
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Arizona
Are you still using Amazon for numbers?
As long as one is using the monthly ranking and not hourly (which should merely be used as "trending" indicator, and not very reliable at that), I don't see the problem with this.
Gotta be carreful of how often they are updated though.

Basically Amazon has been fairly reliable for the hardware results for more than a year now.
Even in April, where the ranking was slightly off for the first time in 18 months (giving PS4 ahead by 1 rank), it was actually right on the money because two XB1 SKUs were right there, explaining the ranking discrepancy.

Right now on the May monthly (I don't think it has been update yet to reflect the past week or so):

#4: Witcher 3 PS4 comic bundle
#20: PS4 TLOU bundle
#22: Witcher 3 PS4 (different SKU?)
#24: XB1 ACU Bundle
#35: XB1 MCC Bundle
#41: Witcher 3 XB1 comic bundle
#59: Wii U

The current hourly shows trending much improved on the Witcher 3 XB1, but that doesn't mean much until it is reflected in the weekly/ Monthly rankings.
 
Oct 4, 2014
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The 299 would only be major if Microsoft didn't also do a price drop to 299. It would be a seriously large blow if they didn't drop or did an official drop to 349.99 (iirc they haven't yet even though it's that price everywhere correct me if I'm wrong).

Sony doing it right at the end of their conference being after Microsofts conference would basically be a boot to the throat.
Unless MS does the strategy a lot of people are thinking where the TB unit will be $350 and the 500 GB will be $299 and both of those will be around the same price range while the PS4 only has a regular at $299.

But what if the PS4 makes a digital only version for $99.

In otherwords wit till E3 lol.

As long as one is using the monthly ranking and not hourly
No, his post was for software not hardware.
 
Jan 14, 2013
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I hope they never get rid of the external power supply. That is one thing I hate about the PS4. Having an internal power supply. If there are any issues you need to send the entire console in. Which results in major downtime. While with an external power supply, you can just easily get a replacement and have minimal downtime.
This entire post make no sense whatsoever...
 
Oct 13, 2014
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Arizona
Unless MS does the strategy a lot of people are thinking where the TB unit will be $350 and the 500 GB will be $299 and both of those will be around the same price range while the PS4 only has a regular at $299.

But what if the PS4 makes a digital only version for $99.

In otherwords wit till E3 lol.



No, his post was for software not hardware.
Amazon rankings are rather bad on software, but do you think that Witcher III will somehow "Boost" XB1 sales?

Not only does Witcher has a primarily PC fan base, but two factors actually indicate that the PS4 version will sell the most (and no, not using Amazon):

- The PS4 install base (ahead by 700k units roughly in the US)
- The average buyer type seem to be just more RPG friendly on PS4
 
May 23, 2013
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I went back and checked some old youtube videos. And I really think there will NOT be a $350 price point for PS4. PS1, PS2 and PS3 all had major marketing push focused on "299". It seems to be the magic number that the company aims for. So I agree that Sony would bundle the hell out of PS4 first if they are not yet ready, and the first real official price drop would be the magic number.
That's because the PS1 and PS2 launched at $299.
 
Oct 4, 2014
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Amazon rankings are rather bad on software, but do you think that Witcher III will somehow "Boost" XB1 sales?

Not only does Witcher has a primarily PC fan base, but two factors actually indicate that the PS4 version will sell the most (and no, not using Amazon):

- The PS4 install base (ahead by 700k units roughly in the US)
- The average buyer type seem to be just more RPG friendly on PS4
This is irrelevant and I'm not sure you read the post. He said the Amazon is an indication of PS4 outselling the Xbox version of the Witcher, regardless of whether that's true it's not something you can base off amazon, It's not just selling more either, he also implies it will push PS4 hardware, I doubt the Witcher will move any ahrdware and XB1 has nothing to do with this conversation.

That's because the PS1 and PS2 launched at $299.
Shhhh.
 
Jun 30, 2009
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Having the Splatoon bundle release at $300 indicates to me there won't be a price drop now. If they do decide to cut the price this year (it needs one, but Nintendo seems like they don't think it would do anything noteworthy), I would expect it to happen in the fall, possibly September.

Push the 299.99 Wii U with Splatoon/NintendoLand from May.29th - June 16th. On June 16th announce WiiU dropping to 249.99 with NintendoLand + Kart-or-Smash at end of June. It could happen?

We could really have an entire thread dedicated to price drop speculation.
 
Feb 3, 2007
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Push the 299.99 Wii U with Splatoon/NintendoLand from May.29th - June 16th. On June 16th announce WiiU dropping to 249.99 with NintendoLand + Kart-or-Smash at end of June. It could happen?

We could really have an entire thread dedicated to price drop speculation.
Given how many decisions Nintendo have made with the WiiU are solely about future consumer confidence, I really don't think they're going to torpedo that by doing a big push at a $299.99 pricepoint, then dropping it by $50 2 weeks later.
 
Jun 13, 2012
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DeNA is going to be helping out Nintendo with that sort of stuff... It was part of the Nintendo/DeNA mobile deal that DeNA would provide their expertise in regards to online services for Nintendo's dedicated systems and NX will be a part of that.
cheers

There has to be a serious shift in their approach to the market. 3DS has been out barely 4 years, which isn't even as long as the GBA. If they just release a beefed up handheld it will flop just as hard as the Vita. Mobile has destroyed dedicated handhelds and there's no way Nintendo can sustain the marketplace following the same old formula.

Nintendo needs to delay the next handheld to coincide with the release of the next console and integrate the two in a way that is actually meaningful.

The console/handheld schedule has only really once been in sync, and that was in 2001 with Game Boy Advance and GameCube.
How would you go about doing that? How do you sell a handheld to people who want a console and vice versa? And unless the cost for both = $350 or less, there is going to be some serious sticker shock. A launch 3ds and launch WiiU deluxe would have been what, $600?
 
Oct 13, 2014
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Arizona
This is irrelevant and I'm not sure you read the post. He said the Amazon is an indication of PS4 outselling the Xbox version of the Witcher, regardless of whether that's true it's not something you can base off amazon, It's not just selling more either, he also implies it will push PS4 hardware, I doubt the Witcher will move any ahrdware and XB1 has nothing to do with this conversation.
Actually his discussion to RexNovis which you were responding to did mention the XB1. In fact it was all about it, as they were talking about the May win, whether it will be PS4 or XB1.

The specific quote you were responding to doesn't mention Amazon at all though, you just assumed, and that he was referencing to Hourly as well it seems.

Now, if his theory is that some people might be waiting for a big RPG like Witcher 3 to buy their console, and that they might pick a PS4 along with The Witcher 3, I can't really fault his reasoning... It's absolutely possible.

Will it push the PS4 a lot on its own? Probably not.
If the PS4 wins May, will it have been thanks -solely- to Witcher 3? Probably not either.

But will the presence of Witcher 3 (in the reportedly stongest offering on consoles) alongside Bloodborne (and other titles) in 2015 sell PS4s? Yes, probably.
 
Oct 4, 2014
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Actually his discussion to RexNovis which you were responding to did mention the XB1. In fact it was all about it, as they were talking about the May win, whether it will be PS4 or XB1.

The specific quote you were responding to doesn't mention Amazon at all though, you just assumed, and that he was referencing to Hourly as well it seems.
All you have to do is go back:
Also, an interesting thing to note is that based on Amazon and info from fellow retailers, The Witcher 3 has been selling better on PS4,
The only place were he is visibly getting his info from is Amazon hourly, everything else is irrelevant. This isn't the only time he has done this, looking through his posts you will see he uses amazon for software more than one time.

Amazon doesn't work like that, there may be other reasons why one may assume but using Amazon to construct your opinion is wrong since Amazon doesn't have numbers, Amazon is less than 10% of the market, and Amazon was wrong last month on hardware.

There is no point in Nintendo dropping the price right now.
To gain mindshare? I'm not saying $199 even just a $50 price cut with a cheap game or no game (which then may actually work at $199) will be enough, They need to have some kind of foothold for whatever QOL and NX is when they throw those out.
 
This entire post make no sense whatsoever...
?? WHY? I don't have a problem with external power supplies because they are out of sight. I don't care about a fan in it because a DVR fan makes more noise. If the power supply goes, I only need to replace the power supply. The game console stays put. With an internal power supply the entire game console needs to be sent in. Which to me is the least preferable option.

I'm not moving my consoles around. They sTay in one location. I have two Xbox Ones and one PS4. I just got a PSTV to play my ps4 on my secondary tv. Which negates a reason for me to get a second PS4 right now.
 
May 23, 2013
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To gain mindshare? I'm not saying $199 even just a $50 price cut with a cheap game or no game (which then may actually work at $199) will be enough, They need to have some kind of foothold for whatever QOL and NX is when they throw those out.
There is no point right now, meaning the next few months. We might see one before the end of the year, some sort of holiday thing.

But right now the console isn't selling many units, and with the price drop the system won't have a big enough boost to actually make up the difference.

That's why I'm a strong believer that Nintendo will either drop the price this holiday or 2016.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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There is no point right now, meaning the next few months. We might see one before the end of the year, some sort of holiday thing.

But right now the console isn't selling many units, and with the price drop the system won't have a big enough boost to actually make up the difference.

That's why I'm a strong believer that Nintendo will either drop the price this holiday or 2016.
Like others said, nobody drops the price at E3 anyways. I assume when you talk of a holiday price cut, you mean like in September or October though, right?
 
Oct 13, 2014
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Arizona
The only place were he is visibly getting his info from is Amazon hourly, everything else is irrelevant.
I don't know about that specific user's posting history, maybe that's why you have a beef with his assertions...

But you also keep using these words "everything else is irrelevant", and I do not think they mean what you think they mean... ;)

Going by the monthly update, yes, Witcher III is selling better on PS4. It was that way with April pre orders, and still is.
Now we commonly say that Amazon is dodgy to be used for Software NPD rankings predictions, but I hope you realize it is for 2 specific reasons that do not necessarily apply here:

- NPD does aggregates of all SKUs per title, which renders the Amazon indicators weak at best. (but here we are comparing one platofrm of the same vs another platform)
- The other big element that tends to make Amazon's software rankings highly unreliable at best is vendor specific (and sometimes platform specific) pre-order offers. (and Amazon has their own bonus which maks them equally desirable in theory).

So in short, all in all, I don't see why you find his prediction of Witcher 3 selling more on PS4 so outlandish, but I'll leave it at that to not derail the thread further.
 
Aug 13, 2014
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?? WHY? I don't have a problem with external power supplies because they are out of sight. I don't care about a fan in it because a DVR fan makes more noise. If the power supply goes, I only need to replace the power supply. The game console stays put. With an internal power supply the entire game console needs to be sent in. Which to me is the least preferable option.

I'm not moving my consoles around. They sTay in one location. I have two Xbox Ones and one PS4. I just got a PSTV to play my ps4 on my secondary tv. Which negates a reason for me to get a second PS4 right now.
This still makes no sense, unless you have spare PSUs lying around your console will still be useless. Unless you are talking only about having to unplug your console from your tv and rest of your stuff.

Are the PSUs usually the first parts to fail and how often? Because in last ~15 years I have only had one or two die on me with my pc.

Anyway we are getting off topic and this isn't really a problem.