NPD Sales Results for April 2015 [Up1: Xbox One #1]

Rex called me out on that language too. You're right... it did meet stated expectations and for all we know it could end up being highly profitable.

I was using the term "struggle" more in terms of what similar titles in the genre have done historically. Benchmark FPS releases in that quality score range have been bigger sellers in the past. Maybe its a reflection of a new market for FPS games, maybe there's more impact from digital on this title than others. Tough to say.

But why would a company have expectations that low when similar titles have been so much bigger? The question then becomes why that assumption was settled on; whether that change in expectation was market driven or driven by something they saw in the title itself is a good question.
My suspicion would be that they realized it wasn't going to be a very big shift from the previous games and that the differences would more so be "different" than "different and better", and modeled it off of similar "filler games".

Like some examples that come to mind:
Gears of War 3 -> Gears of War: Judgment
God of War 3 -> God of War: Ascension
Borderlands 2 -> Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel
Batman: Arkham City -> Batman: Arkham Origins
Assassin's Creed 2 -> Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood/Revelations

Like all of those titles saw notable sales declines versus the previous entries to my knowledge, but the publishers would all expect much larger sales for the next mainline entries (Gear of War 4, Borderlands 3, Assassin's Creed 3 which did 12.5 million, God of War 4, and Batman: Arkham Knight).
 
Jun 19, 2014
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Rex called me out on that language too. You're right... it did meet stated expectations and for all we know it could end up being highly profitable.

I was using the term "struggle" more in terms of what similar titles in the genre have done historically. Benchmark FPS releases in that quality score range have been bigger sellers in the past. Maybe its a reflection of a new market for FPS games, maybe there's more impact from digital on this title than others. Tough to say.

But why would a company have expectations that low when similar titles have been so much bigger? The question then becomes why that assumption was settled on; whether that change in expectation was market driven or driven by something they saw in the title itself is a good question.
It was a spring release. I think it did about the same as Bad Company 2. Not really sure what else to compare it to since most major FPS releases are in the Fall/Holiday season.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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That's what I've seen, at least. It's not been to the same slant as Japanese titles, but ps4 still the bigger seller from what I've tracked in stores.

Hardware wise, I'm hesitant to make an assumption based on how close things were last month, and it didn't match what I saw, so it seems likely that it was influenced by one of the bigger retailers, gamestop in particular. But ps4 has sold better so far for us at least.
Thanks for your insights again, Abdiel. And I don't blame you for last month. Gamestop had the trade in deal for the XB1 that most likely gave it the win. Seems absurd to expect you to search Gamestop stores to get the sales trend.
 
Jan 20, 2013
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The Amazon monthlies have updated, and I think the only surprise is the size of the gap between The Witcher PS4 and Xbox One.

I wonder if this is representative at all of what we should expect the platform split to be.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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This page

then in the address bar next to /2015, add -0X (X = number of month you want to see). (0 would be replaced by a 1 for Oct, Nov, and Dec)

That would lead here http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-05/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
Thanks a lot, man. I was always waiting for others to link the page to see the results. :)

The monthly charts haven't been updated in a few days, I'm guessing. The standard PS4 SKU is nowhere to be seen, probably because it only started rising on the hourly charts not too long ago. Still, interesting to see the PS4 version of The Witcher 3 so far ahead.
 
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Judging from what Harker said, MCC bundle is selling more than ACU bundle. So why this is not the case in Amazon?
As with any sample, even if it's representative, the actual observation may not reflect the population.

Given that Amazon's sample is likely to not be representative in the first place, this is not surprising. Beyond that, perhaps Amazon shoppers are more likely to see the number of stars and reviews for the MCC and change their bundle choice accordingly, favoring the free controller instead of the MCC. Just a guess, though.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Judging from what Harker said, MCC bundle is selling more than ACU bundle. So why this is not the case in Amazon?
I think Amazon customers would be far more likely to know about the issues with MCC than the average consumer since there are plenty of reviews for the game and the bundle available on the website. I'm assuming that would lead to lower sales for the bundle than the market at large. But that's just an educated guess really.
 
Mar 26, 2013
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People waiting for the White bundle?
Nah, this was happening before the white bundle announcement.
As with any sample, even if it's representative, the actual observation may not reflect the population.

Given that Amazon's sample is likely to not be representative in the first place, this is not surprising. Beyond that, perhaps Amazon shoppers are more likely to see the number of stars and reviews for the MCC and change their bundle choice accordingly, favoring the free controller instead of the MCC. Just a guess, though.
I think Amazon customers would be far more likely to know about the issues with MCC than the average consumer since there are plenty of reviews for the game and the bundle available on the website. I'm assuming that would lead to lower sales for the bundle than the market at large. But that's just an educated guess really.
Yeah I guess, these look to be valid reasons.
 
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I think Amazon customers would be far more likely to know about the issues with MCC than the average consumer since there are plenty of reviews for the game and the bundle available on the website. I'm assuming that would lead to lower sales for the bundle than the market at large. But that's just an educated guess really.
Good point.

I think many who go in retail stores simply see Halo and automatically want it [and the current (pretty early) Halo 5 push is helping with that]. The bundles must have done really well last month for MS to bring back the white system.
 

kenta

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Good for Microsoft. Some people really need to get over how badly they dropped the ball at E3 2013. They've been trying to turn things around, they've been listening to feedback, and they update the system with new features every month. As an owner of both Xbone and PS4, I feel that Microsoft has been the one that responds quicker to what their fans want added and updated for the console.

Yes they fucked up at launch, but if you can get past that you'll see that it's actually become a really good system. Phil Spencer has done well for them since replacing that out-of-touch idiot Mattrick.
 
May 23, 2013
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You have to remember that NPD track retail sales for between 90-95% of the total retail market via POS sell through.

So NPD use a sophisticated proprietary model in order to accurately estimate the other 5-10% of the market that they can't track accurately.

What that means is that a very small difference such as 13k (which falls within that 5-10% margin error) isn't really a win. When there is a bigger difference then it'll be clear which console is selling better.

Of course the way that NPD estimate the remaining 5-10% is very accurate so they are able to get as close to the actual number as possible.
 
Jun 22, 2011
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You have to remember that NPD track retail sales for between 90-95% of the total retail market via POS sell through.

So NPD use a sophisticated proprietary model in order to accurately estimate the other 5-10% of the market that they can't track accurately.

What that means is that a very small difference such as 13k (which falls within that 5-10% margin error) isn't really a win. When there is a bigger difference then it'll be clear which console is selling better.

Of course the way that NPD estimate the remaining 5-10% is very accurate so they are able to get as close to the actual number as possible.
Not sure if trolling.jpg
 
Sep 8, 2013
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I don't know what actually?

But anyway the point I'm making is that there was a lot of shock earlier in this thread at Xbox One "Winning". So that line is basically my version of Ars Technica's "Don't read too much into it". Hence why I used the "Win" word.

:p
You're back!!! :D



Considering the utter lack of first party games coming out it was a surprising sales result for XB1. However, after thinking about the deals and bundles that debuted during the month it's easy to see why. What is really unfortunate is the fall in demand for the PS4. They desperately need to cut their price. I think they have saturated the $400 market.
 
Apr 25, 2013
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You're back!!! :D



Considering the utter lack of first party games coming out it was a surprising sales result for XB1. However, after thinking about the deals and bundles that debuted during the month it's easy to see why. What is really unfortunate is the fall in demand for the PS4. They desperately need to cut their price. I think they have saturated the $400 market.
Eh April and May are slow months. If it weren't for those deals I doubt Xb1 even wins the month. I'm sure Sony is perfectly fine selling what they can right now at the current price point.

I'm interested to see what happens in June. Batman Arkham limited edition bundle for 50 bucks more and then the standard arkham bundle at the current price. I have a feeling that's going to move some units.
 
May 23, 2013
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You're back!!! :D



Considering the utter lack of first party games coming out it was a surprising sales result for XB1. However, after thinking about the deals and bundles that debuted during the month it's easy to see why. What is really unfortunate is the fall in demand for the PS4. They desperately need to cut their price. I think they have saturated the $400 market.
Yes I am haha.

TBH the PS4 doesn't need a price cut. The sales we see from the PS4 still put it as the cumulative market leader and it's still tracking better than last gen.

However the console market as a whole isn't as big anymore and that is one of the factors as to why sales in these months aren't high, but then again they aren't high anyway.

I personally don't think we'll see a price drop until a few months from now as that will be the best time for them.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Eh April and May are slow months. If it weren't for those deals I doubt Xb1 even wins the month. I'm sure Sony is perfectly fine selling what they can right now at the current price point.

I'm interested to see what happens in June. Batman Arkham limited edition bundle for 50 bucks more and then the standard arkham bundle at the current price. I have a feeling that's going to move some units.
Oh there is no doubt the Batman bundle will be a significant bump for them but the consumer market they are selling to is getting progressively more and more budget conscious as time goes on so the price drop will need to happen in order to fuel the sales momentum of the console thus far. This NPD was a marked drop YoY for them and May will almost certainly be a large drop YoY thanks to the release of WatchDogs last May.

Yes I am haha.

TBH the PS4 doesn't need a price cut. The sales we see from the PS4 still put it as the cumulative market leader and it's still tracking better than last gen.

However the console market as a whole isn't as big anymore and that is one of the factors as to why sales in these months aren't high, but then again they aren't high anyway.

I personally don't think we'll see a price drop until a few months from now as that will be the best time for them.
Honestly this boils down to a gut feeling more than anything. Of course Sony doesnt NEED to cut their price but I think it would certainly be advantageous for them to do so. They are still selling fairly well WW but their competitor is gaining steam in two of the most influential markets. I think it would benefit them greatly to do a price cut. When I said "need" in the previous post I meant it as more of a reflection of cost/benefit for them than the current market realities. Then again, you could very well be right but I truly think a price cut would put them back ahead YoY instead of seeing a decline. I'm not convinced the 360/PS3 crowd from last gen has shrunk quite as much as you predict it has. Either way I have no doubt a price cut is coming. It is just a matter of when. Time will tell.
 
Jun 22, 2011
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I don't know what actually?
Amirox' old rant about the PS3.


I guess it's now gotten less popular after it seemed to be in every thread.
This NPD was a marked drop YoY for them and May will almost certainly be a large drop YoY thanks to the release of WatchDogs last May.
This gen is up YoY and combined with last gen they are slightly down.
 
Jun 14, 2011
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Good for Microsoft. Some people really need to get over how badly they dropped the ball at E3 2013. They've been trying to turn things around, they've been listening to feedback, and they update the system with new features every month. As an owner of both Xbone and PS4, I feel that Microsoft has been the one that responds quicker to what their fans want added and updated for the console.

Yes they fucked up at launch, but if you can get past that you'll see that it's actually become a really good system. Phil Spencer has done well for them since replacing that out-of-touch idiot Mattrick.
Where is this nonsense coming from? This "out-of-touch idiot Mattrick" fallacy needs to die in a fire. It WAS NOT Mattrick who singlehandedly ran the xbox division. The vision was the vision of MS as a whole, Mattrick is just the scape goat. People who think that Mattrick somehow misguided the whole gaming division on his own are nuts.

I don't think any sane consumer should "get past" their fucked up launch. That is what they want for you, the only reason they are acting like they are listening to you is because most people didn't go for their bullshit.

Why don't you educate yourself instead of "forgetting":
"Microsoft’s conduct over the last two decades has demonstrated Microsoft’s willingness and ability to engage in unlawful conduct to protect and extend its core monopolies. This conduct has caused real harm to consumers, who continue to pay high prices and use lower quality products than would have prevailed in a competitive market. By understanding Microsoft’s history of anticompetitive conduct, developers, consumer groups, and government authorities will be better equipped to recognize current and future Microsoft misconduct at an early stage and intervene to prevent Microsoft from using tactics other than competition on the merits."
 
May 23, 2013
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I'm not convinced the 360/PS3 crowd from last gen has shrunk quite as much as you predict it has. Either way I have no doubt a price cut is coming. It is just a matter of when. Time will tell.
Well I mean the console market as a whole.

Especially when you consider that the Xbox 360 and PS3 were selling those numbers alongside the Wii (which sold tons). Whilst this gen there is no Wii, just the PS4 and One.
 
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Amazon's monthly actually updated now

Splatoon is #19, PS4 has #23 vs XB1 with #28 and #37

(Wii U is #58, and Puzzle and Dragons is #90, if anyone cares)

edit: new updates

Splatoon #16, PS4 #25, XB1 #29/36