NPD Sales Results for April 2016 [Sony, MS, & Nintendo refuse to comment on hardware]

Jul 7, 2015
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Funny fact: The bigger Gears of War game ( Gears of War 3) is still bigger than all Uncharted games. :D

First week
Gears of War 3 ~ 3 million
Uncharted 4 ~ 2.7 million

Too bad we have not LT sales for Gears 3, so i don't even can say if lifetime Uncharted 4 will beat it.

Though i think Uncharted 4 will do almost 11 million lifetime, i don't think Gears of War 3 is that huhg, but still, we don't know.
 
Dec 6, 2012
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Funny fact: The bigger Gears of War game ( Gears of War 3) is still bigger than all Uncharted games. :D

First week
Gears of War 3 ~ 3 million
Uncharted 4 ~ 2.7 million

Too bad we have not LT sales for Gears 3, so i don't even can say if lifetime Uncharted 4 will beat it.
3 Ml for Gears is sold through or shipped?
 
Dec 5, 2008
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Funny fact: The bigger Gears of War game ( Gears of War 3) is still bigger than all Uncharted games. :D

First week
Gears of War 3 ~ 3 million
Uncharted 4 ~ 2.7 million

Too bad we have not LT sales for Gears 3, so i don't even can say if lifetime Uncharted 4 will beat it.

Though i think Uncharted 4 will do almost 11 million lifetime, i don't think Gears of War 3 is that huhg, but still, we don't know.
Is gears sell through though?

That is important to consider.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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Jul 7, 2014
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Funny fact: The bigger Gears of War game ( Gears of War 3) is still bigger than all Uncharted games. :D

First week
Gears of War 3 ~ 3 million
Uncharted 4 ~ 2.7 million

Too bad we have not LT sales for Gears 3, so i don't even can say if lifetime Uncharted 4 will beat it.

Though i think Uncharted 4 will do almost 11 million lifetime, i don't think Gears of War 3 is that huhg, but still, we don't know.
We know because the Gears trilogy sold about 21 million so safe to say Uncharted 3 sold better than Gears 3 in the end. We know because the first two Gears game both sold around 7 million. The games were very consistent in sales whereas Uncharted sales grew with each installment.
 
Jun 18, 2013
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Feb 24, 2014
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Outside of the Uncharted 4 sales topic, man, the XB1 deals are getting pretty crazy.

With $369 you can buy:

  • The 1TB console bundle (gears remaster, ori and rare replay)
  • Halo 5 limited edition
  • Forza horizon 2
  • Extra controller
  • Amazon $50 gift card
http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-One-1TB-...dp/B01G2C0F4K?ie=UTF8&*Version*=1&*entries*=0
This is an old deal, but the dropped price is new.

No it was Sold through, and honestly i don't see why is hard to believe.

In UK Gears of War 3 almost outsold Halo 4 first week, with 322,000 unit sold.

More like only 3 million shipped seem unlucky.
I guess I could do some napkin math.

The second week drop in the UK was -76%. Applying a similar drop to the US (using just 2m, and a range of -70% to -80%), week 1 should be between 1.54m (-70%) and 1.67m (-80%)

Closer to 2.1m would be between <1.61m (-70%) and <1.75m (-80%)

Upper limit is 1.75m for week 1 in the US. 1.25m for the ROTW seems close to the US. It could be possible, I guess, but it does seem a bit high.
 
Nov 18, 2013
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Outside of the Uncharted 4 sales topic, man, the XB1 deals are getting pretty crazy.

With $369 you can buy:

  • The 1TB console bundle (gears remaster, ori and rare replay)
  • Halo 5 limited edition
  • Forza horizon 2
  • Extra controller
  • Amazon $50 gift card
http://www.amazon.com/Xbox-One-1TB-...dp/B01G2C0F4K?ie=UTF8&*Version*=1&*entries*=0
Great service that they still have limited editions 5 months after launch.
Is it time for not so limited joke? Anyway they should just drop the price at E3.
meh
 

Yurikerr

This post isn't by me, it's by a guy with the same username as me.
Jun 3, 2013
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Is it time for not so limited joke? Anyway they should just drop the price at E3.
Yeah, just like those extremely rare collectors editions that can be bought for 1/3 of the price 6 months later.

The thing is with this type of deals, even if they drop the base price to $299, the console will still be perceived as too much expensive.

In the bundle i posted, if you consider each game as $20, adding the extra controller at $40 and the amazon gc...the final console price is $179....

This is an old deal, but the dropped price is new.
How much was it before?
 
Nov 29, 2014
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UC4 first week sales are pretty impressive.

SnowFlakeCake should've made a bet. So confident with only a 5 million LTD prediction.
Well I would have won the bet, my belief was that the game would easily sell 5 million and looking at the figures, I ain't wrong. It's nothing special of a game and that's seen with the huge drop in the UK, it's not going to have those crazy TLOU legs. UC4 definitely won't do 10 million if that's what you mean, the hardcore have got the game and it ain't gonna do 4x its first week unless you count pack ins later on.

UC4 will sell more than games that are worse quality wise such as your Bloodbornes or Splatoons and less than TLOU worldwide. I think that sounds about right to me and shows some people have decent taste in games.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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I'm almost sure Microsoft will announce Xbox One Slim at E3 for $299 and ship to stores in the same week.

This will "save" Xbox One sales for several months.
The spring price drop, the $50 gift cards, and other deals are probably MS clearing out as much stock as possible for the E3 week slim release.

$299 slim makes complete sense.

How much was it before?
Pretty sure it was $399.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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I'm quite convinced that Uncharted 4 in May will be sold in more copies at retail ( bundles included ) than Halo 5 sold at retail in 2 months ( Oct. 935k and Nov. IIRC 350k ) combined.
A debut of almost 1.3m? More than Watch Dogs on all platforms back in May 2014?

Nah, not happening.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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Brazil
Hello guys.

Well not much to say before I check my predictions with really bad bets lol

About U4 it was about what I expected... after the 2.7m sold WW I will stay with my over 1.2m NPD May... in fact I'm inclined to say it will be ~1.3m.

Good good.

Unless Uncharted 3 was massive overshipped, U4 number is not that great relatively speaking
3.8m was the holiday shipment (Nov to Dec).
 
Sep 4, 2015
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I am thinking ~1.1M for UC4 now.

No need to apologize. I found his post weird when there's no sell-through number for Uncharted 3 to compare to and I thought that was what you were questioning too.
Ah, I read it like this -

"Uncharted 3 was massive overshipped, U4 number is not that great relatively speaking"

My brain cut off "unless" for whatever reason and it made me think he was talking about something completely different with his relative comment.

My bad. :p
 
Sep 27, 2006
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Unless Uncharted 3 was massive overshipped, U4 number is not that great relatively speaking
Why am I not surprised that you'd say that :p?

Seriously though, Uncharted 3 came out in November - the holidays - on a system with a much higher install base at the time. On top of allll that, it was shipped numbers. We don't even know how many copies of Uncharted 4 Sony shipped as well...
 
Aug 30, 2009
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I think some people forget how much companies shipped during the holidays or because of reasons .
Fallout shipped 12 million day one and you can be sure it did not sell that in a week .
Funny enough that sony gave us sold numbers since everything is ship or no numbers at all.
 
May 16, 2006
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Why am I not surprised that you'd say that :p?

Seriously though, Uncharted 3 came out in November - the holidays - on a system with a much higher install base at the time. On top of allll that, it was shipped numbers. We don't even know how many copies of Uncharted 4 Sony shipped as well...
No idea what you are implying.

If is something related to console wars you are completely wrong, I guess you didn't saw what I commented about several first party Xbox One games, including this month pathetic QB.
 
May 16, 2006
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It the amount of shipment they needed to cover holiday.

Shipment covers what they expect to be sold in determined time frame.

They shipped 3.8m day one to cover the holidays... sold a good amount on first week and left another good amount to be sold in the next two months.
I don't think the rule is proceed shipment to cover 2 months of sales in day one, maybe I'm wrong but I believe this happens when the demand is lower than estimated.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Mars
I don't think the rule is proceed shipment to cover 2 months of sales in day one.
You're right. Most retailers want 2-3 weeks of coverage at launch. If you have 2 months supply after Day 1 it's bad. It means you missed your forecast and will face immediate pressures to lower price through promotion or a permanent price drop. Recent releases and how quickly prices have begun being promoted reflects this type of situation.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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I don't think the rule is proceed shipment to cover 2 months of sales in day one, maybe I'm wrong but I believe this happens when the demand is lower than estimated.
That can be true too... only Sony and partners knows.

Fact is U3 did 700k without bundles in NPD November... even if it had a really great EU and RotW sales I can only estimate a high 2m sold for the first month (November)... that is far way from 3.8m day one shipped.

I don't believe they shipped more units before the year end.

Well that is all guess of course.
 
Sep 27, 2006
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No idea what you are implying.

If is something related to console wars you are completely wrong, I guess you didn't saw what I commented about several first party Xbox One games, including this month pathetic QB.
That first part was just a joke, though i don't think I've seen you impressed by any Sony-related sales yet :p. As for Quantum Break, big shame about those sales...hopefully it picks up after going on sale or something.

What about the other part of my post though? We have to factor in a few things: 1) PS3 install base was much higher 2) 3.8 million shipped to retail for UC3 vs 2.7 million sold for UC4 3) May tends to be a pretty slow month compared to November, holiday period 4) That high shipping number for UC3 - keep in mind they had to stock a lot for the holiday period. Don't you think it's slightly impressive when you factor all that in? Also, we'll have to keep in mind that the highest Sony published game launch sales on PS4 is at 600,000-ish (for Infamous: Second Son)
 
May 16, 2006
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You're right. Most retailers want 2-3 weeks of coverage at launch. If you have 2 months supply after Day 1 it's bad. It means you missed your forecast and will face immediate pressures to lower price through promotion or a permanent price drop. Recent releases and how quickly prices have begun being promoted reflects this type of situation.
That's what I thought. Thanks for clarifying.
 
Mar 31, 2013
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We already know from GfK that U4 launch is 66% higher than U3 launch in UK. So unless UK is an exception
(it's not)
I don't know why anyone would try to suggest that U4 numbers are not impressive compared to U3.

And of course we are still waiting for other publishers to share their sell-through numbers like Sony is doing regularly since the PS4 arrived. Sharing a week one sell-through number is always going to be less shiny than a first month sell-in or the global sales in $, but that's classy and ballsy considering how other publishers are hiding more and more their data.
 
May 16, 2006
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We already know from GfK that U4 launch is 66% higher than U3 launch in UK. So unless UK is an exception
(it's not)
I don't know why anyone would try to suggest that U4 numbers are not impressive compared to U3.
We don't have enought data to say that UK standard is the rule. It seems that Uncharted 4 is doing better than 3, but there's no data to say by how much because we don't know sell through for U3. U4 number is not impressive compared to U3, unless U3 was significant overshipped (what is a real possibility).

Anyway, 2.7m is a great mark for an exclusive.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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And of course we are still waiting for other publishers to share their sell-through numbers like Sony is doing regularly since the PS4 arrived.
Weird. I don't remember week 1 sell-through being announced for Tearaway Unfolded, The Order, Shadow Fall, Gravity Rush Remastered, etc. I must have missed those.

Sharing a week one sell-through number is always going to be less shiny than a first month sell-in or the global sales in $, but that's classy and ballsy considering how other publishers are hiding more and more their data.
No one would hide results that are this good. And no one publishes results that could be considered bad.
 
Aug 24, 2011
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We don't have enought data to say that UK standard is the rule. It seems that Uncharted 4 is doing better than 3, but there's no data to say by how much because we don't know sell through for U3. U4 number is not impressive compared to U3, unless U3 was significant overshipped (what is a real possibility).

Anyway, 2.7m is a great mark for an exclusive.
Well in Spain it doubled the opening week of Uncharted 3 (again without digital sales even). That is already two biggish markets with very clear increase compared to Uncharted 3. Hard to see that the situation would be that much different elsewhere.