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[Ryng_tolu]

So for September I predict
1. MGSV
2. Destiny
3.Mad Max
4.NBA
5.Disney Infinity
6.Mario Maker
7.Fifa
8. GTAV
9.Madden
10.Minecraft
Seems reasonable or no I feel fairly confident with top 5 the other 5 Im not sure.

1. Metal Gear Solid V ( PS4; XBO; PS3; 360; PC)
2. Destiny: TTK ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
3. Madden 16 ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
4. FIFA 16 ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
5. NBA live 16 ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
6. NHL 16 ( PS4; XBO; 360; PS3 )
7. Mad Max ( PS4; XBO; PC)
8. Mario Maker ( Wii U)
9. Disney Infinity ( 360; PS3; Wii U; XBO; PS4)
10. Forza 6 ( XBO)

...About numbers
MGS V > 1,500,000
Destiny > 1,200,000
Mario Maker > 250,000
Forza 6 > 200,000

 

[Spiegel]

So is it time for a price cut on the 3ds?

The time was one or two years ago.

 

[Primethius]

The price cut people are like birthers at this point. Despite all the evidence in the contrary of a price cut coming this year, they just cling to the idea that a price cut is coming this year.

I know this is a bit late, as I've been catching up on the thread, but "birthers"? Really?

I mean, hey, a price-cut might be looking unlikely but you're just asking to be quoted if one ends up happening.

 

[allan-bh]

So is it time for a price cut on the 3ds?

It's time for NX portable.

 

[Mory Dunz]

There's always one game every NPD that people reaaallly want to be successful, despite whatever evidence.

About a year ago was Bayo2

 

[allan-bh]

There's always one game every NPD that people reaaallly want to be successful, despite whatever evidence.

About a year ago was Bayo2

Yeah, people are dreaming about Until Dawn legs...It's better to accept that is a small launch with modest sales.

I'm sure Sony don't has high expectations, so maybe a sequel will happen anyway.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I can't wait to see what Supermassive do next tbh. They've certainly proved themselves with this game.

 

[Fat4all]

I can't wait to see what Supermassive do next tbh. They've certainly proved themselves with this game.

Indeed. They've turned what would of been a sort of interesting Swan Song for the PS Move into an interesting gem of a PS4 game. It'll be a slow burn, but I have a felling Until Dawn will sell well over time. Hopefully enough for a sequel someday...

Until then, Sony should give Supermassive a new project, a bigger project maybe. More funding. Or perhaps let them work on another new IP.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Indeed. They've turned what would of been a sort of interesting Swan Song for the PS Move into an interesting gem of a PS4 game. It'll be a slow burn, but I have a felling Until Dawn will sell well over time. Hopefully enough for a sequel someday...

Until then, Sony should give Supermassive a new project, a bigger project maybe. More funding. Or perhaps let them work on another new IP.

I'll be honest, I was so sceptical of this game because I just haven't been a fan of similar games from before (like Heavy Rain) but this one was totally awesome.

No one died on my first playthrough

 

[rokkerkory]

Hey great job Sony, pretty good job MS and Nintendo is ok besides Wii U

Good to see 2 healthy systems at least.

 

[Boombloxer]

I'll be honest, I was so sceptical of this game because I just haven't been a fan of similar games from before (like Heavy Rain) but this one was totally awesome.

No one died on my first playthrough

One person ate it. I was happy that I didn't mess at the very end, was watching a stream where the guy messed up his perfect playthrough on that part and started screaming, ended the stream,etc.

Hilarious. The sheer amount of "WTF JUST HAPPENED!!!" is worth it.

 

[ZhugeEX]

One person ate it. I was happy that I didn't mess at the very end, was watching a stream where the guy messed up his perfect playthrough on that part and started screaming, ended the stream,etc.

Hilarious. The sheer amount of "WTF JUST HAPPENED!!!" is worth it.

I thought half the cast was dead for most of it.

Spoiler

(Until you discover later they're still alive).

I have to admit I really wasn't expecting the story to take the turn it did.

 

[Obliterator]

Theres a good chance Destiny is No 1 in NPD for September

 

[allan-bh]

Theres a good chance Destiny is No 1 in NPD for September

I doubt, it's not a new game.

 

[Obliterator]

I doubt, it's not a new game.

It doesn't really matter.

It'll be 1 or 2 more than likely

 

[allan-bh]

It doesn't really matter.

It'll be 1 or 2 more than likely

It matters because MGS V is a big launch and will sell for all the 5 weeks of the period.

Destiny doesn't have a shot for 1st place.

 

[Obliterator]

It matters because MGS V is a big launch and will sell for all the 5 weeks of the period.

Destiny doesn't have a shot for 1st place.

Nah bro. Destiny has a legit chance

 

[CosmicQueso]

A special "Halloween Pricing" @ $39.99, plus a few commercials during or around The Walking Dead would totally do it imo.

What would it totally do?

I know this is a bit late, as I've been catching up on the thread, but "birthers"? Really?

I mean, hey, a price-cut might be looking unlikely but you're just asking to be quoted if one ends up happening.

I thought the birthers thing would get more run, lol. Sure, I'll be derided from here until forever if a PS4 price drop happens this year.

But it won't. I've already offered up avatar bets on it, no one's bit on it.

Hey great job Sony, pretty good job MS and Nintendo is ok besides Wii U

Good to see 2 healthy systems at least.

Nintendo is doing better than people think they are, but it's not due to HW. Nintendo is actually the #3 pub in software this year, selling a ton of full price, old catalog product every month.

Sure, it's a far cry from the heady days of the Wii/DS, but they're still pushing very profitable software sales in big ways.

Nah bro. Destiny has a legit chance

Agreed. Destiny total product vs MGSV should be close. Really tough to call.

It matters because MGS V is a big launch and will sell for all the 5 weeks of the period

Not sure about that. Huge day 1/week 1 absolutely. But I'd expect the week 1 to week 2 decay to be extraordinarily steep. Tough to say. Word of mouth has been good and of course the review scores are fantastic.

I'll take the bet purely based on that.

Alright, if a drop doesn't happen, you'll have to make your avatar something like "I Believe in Cheese" or something of the like (I'll get to designing). And if there is a drop you'll make me make my avatar...???

 

[Primethius]

I thought the birthers thing would get more run, lol. Sure, I'll be derided from here until forever if a PS4 price drop happens this year.

I'll take the bet purely based on that.

 

[AmyS]

A 5-6 year generation sounds right.

New Xbox in 2018

PS5 in 2019

I'd be fine with that.

 

[ZhugeEX]

Nintendo is doing better than people think they are, but it's not due to HW. Nintendo is actually the #3 pub in software this year, selling a ton of full price, old catalog product every month.

Sure, it's a far cry from the heady days of the Wii/DS, but they're still pushing very profitable software sales in big ways.

The perfect time for me to post this-

 

[Mory Dunz]

The perfect time for me to post this-

Almost level for the past few years.
Slow and steady wins the race

Oh wait-


EDIT:
huh, I always thought software created more revenue than hardware. Guess I was wrong.

 

[Hockeymac18]

Almost level for the past few years.
Slow and steady wins the race

Oh wait-


EDIT:
huh, I always thought software created more revenue than hardware. Guess I was wrong.

I think the statement is in relation to profit since the margins on hardware, especially early in the generation, are really slim (or non-existent for systems like the ps3 in its early years).

 

[allan-bh]

Not sure about that. Huge day 1/week 1 absolutely. But I'd expect the week 1 to week 2 decay to be extraordinarily steep. Tough to say. Word of mouth has been good and of course the review scores are fantastic.

I meant that was launched very early in the period, so will have 5 weeks of sales tracked, Destiny will have less.

I'm imagining something like 1.5 million for MGS V and I can't see Destiny selling this much at retail because it's a old game and a lot people will just buy the expansion online.

 

[Obliterator]

I meant that was launched very early in the period, so will have 5 weeks of sales tracked, Destiny will have less.

I'm imagining something like 1.5 million for MGS V and I can't see Destiny selling this much at retail because it's a old game and a lot people will just buy the expansion online.

I dont see MGS doing 1.5

 

[Primethius]

Alright, if a drop doesn't happen, you'll have to make your avatar something like "I Believe in Cheese" or something of the like (I'll get to designing). And if there is a drop you'll make me make my avatar...???

Perhaps any image with the words "#Birther" at the bottom.

It doesn't really bother me what the avatar ends up being though.

 

[Boke1879]

I dont see MGS doing 1.5

I do.

 

[allan-bh]

I dont see MGS doing 1.5

MGS 4 sold 1m on PS3.

In UK MGS V on PS4 outsold MGS 4 first week, so it's reasonable to expect that something similar happen in USA. Including XBO and old gen, something close to 1.5m is achievable.

 

[Obliterator]

I do.

Seems high to me. I dont see a scenario it opens higher than Batman

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I dont see MGS doing 1.5

PS4 version alone should sell 1 / 1.2 million.
Adding 300/400k from XBO, and other small sales from old gen, should happen.

Seems high to me. I dont see a scenario it opens higher than Batman

Only the PS4 version will sell like Batman...

 

[ZhugeEX]

But it won't. I've already offered up avatar bets on it, no one's bit on it.

Lets do our one haha. No doubt Sony will issue a press release at the start of 2016 announcing cumulative sell through for PS4. So if it's over 30m I get avatar control and if it's under 30m you get avatar control.

We can work out what exactly at the time.

deal?

I meant that was launched very early in the period, so will have 5 weeks of sales tracked, Destiny will have less.

I'm imagining something like 1.5 million for MGS V and I can't see Destiny selling this much at retail because it's a old game and a lot people will just buy the expansion online.

Gamestop said recently that they expect Halo 5 to be the best selling game during the period from August 1st to October 31st.

Bear in mind that Halo 5 is only tracked for 5 days total in that period above so it really shows what Gamestop think Halo 5 is capable of.

 

[Chobel]

I thought the birthers thing would get more run, lol. Sure, I'll be derided from here until forever if a PS4 price drop happens this year.

But it won't. I've already offered up avatar bets on it, no one's bit on it.

I'll bite, an official $100 price cut for PS4 will happen this year.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Gamestop said recently that they expect Halo 5 to be the best selling game during the period from August 1st to October 31st.

Bear in mind that Halo 5 is only tracked for 5 days total in that period above so it really shows what Gamestop think Halo 5 is capable of.

Usually Halo sell over 3 million in 2 or 3 weeks... how much we can expect from Halo 5 in one week?

I think 2 million to 2.5 million should be correct, with a small dropped in the second month compared to the other Halo.

 

[Kusagari]

Lets do our one haha. No doubt Sony will issue a press release at the start of 2016 announcing cumulative sell through for PS4. So if it's over 30m I get avatar control and if it's under 30m you get avatar control.

We can work out what exactly at the time.

deal?



Gamestop said recently that they expect Halo 5 to be the best selling game during the period from August 1st to October 31st.

Bear in mind that Halo 5 is only tracked for 5 days total in that period above so it really shows what Gamestop think Halo 5 is capable of.

If Halo doesn't do over 2 million in those 5 days it will likely be seen as a disappointment. There's nothing particularly surprising there.

 

[Obliterator]

Gamestop said recently that they expect Halo 5 to be the best selling game during the period from August 1st to October 31st.

Bear in mind that Halo 5 is only tracked for 5 days total in that period above so it really shows what Gamestop think Halo 5 is capable of.

Keep in mind Halo will have more than 5 days of tracking in NPD. All CE's and system bundles launch October 20th

 

[ZhugeEX]

YouTube and streaming can cost a pretty penny tho

Youtube has been responsible for a hell of a lot of game sales over the years.

 

[allan-bh]

Usually Halo sell over 3 million in 2 or 3 weeks... how much we can expect from Halo 5 in one week?

I think 2 million to 2.5 million should be correct, with a small dropped in the second month compared to the other Halo.

Halo 2 and 3 sold more than 2 million on first day. I suppose Reach and 4 too.

I'm feeling that Halo 5 don't has the same hype of the old days, but still I'm expecting more than 2 million in october. Less than that will be disappointing.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Halo 2 and 3 sold more than 2 million on first day. I suppose Reach and 4 too.

I'm feeling that Halo 5 don't has the same hype of the old days, but still I'm expecting more than 2 million in october. Less than that will be disappointing.

Wow, not even first week, but the first day... yup, Halo 5 will sell like crazy.

 

[Fat4all]

Keep in mind Halo will have more than 5 days of tracking in NPD. All CE's and system bundles launch October 20th

Halo 5 taking the number 1 software slot is very likely in October, but if somehow Assassin's Creed Syndication turns out the be the next "Black Flag" in terms of quality and sales, it might take October by virtue of earlier release and being multiplatform.

After that it's Guitar Hero and Rock Band to pick up whatever sales they can.

And Minecraft, of course.

 

[KillerMan91]

Nintendo is doing better than people think they are, but it's not due to HW. Nintendo is actually the #3 pub in software this year, selling a ton of full price, old catalog product every month.

Sure, it's a far cry from the heady days of the Wii/DS, but they're still pushing very profitable software sales in big ways.

Problem with Nintendo is that the base they will sell that software is shrinking every year. It's still enough to sell good amount of software but as they are pretty much non factor in home console market that is still in somewhat decent state and dominant in handheld space that is rapidly dying their near future outlook doesn't seem that great. Of course NX could change things but future will determine that. Personally I just don't see how they can change their current situation in neither markets. Home console market is dominated by blockbuster games pushing hw and mobile will continue to eat handheld market (of course to some extend home console market too). Well as they are also moving to mobile market maybe they could find success there with their strong franchises.

 

[allan-bh]

Halo 5 taking the number 1 software slot is very likely in October, but if somehow Assassin's Creed Syndication turns out the be the next "Black Flag" in terms of quality and sales, it might take October by virtue of earlier release and being multiplatform.

Assassin's Creed is on a downward spiral, Xbox One bundle saved Unity (standalone sales was very disappointing).

I doubt Syndication will change things.

 

[Obliterator]

Assassin's Creed is on a downward spiral, Xbox One saved Unity (standalone sales was very disappointing).

I doubt Syndication will change things.

Agreed 100%. Syndicate gonna launch very low for a modern AC imo unless it gets crazy good reviews and word of mouth. Unity hurt that franchise badly

 

[ZhugeEX]

Halo 5 taking the number 1 software slot is very likely in October, but if somehow Assassin's Creed Syndication turns out the be the next "Black Flag" in terms of quality and sales, it might take October by virtue of earlier release and being multiplatform.

I expect Syndicate to sell worse than Unity. (Excluding bundles)

 

[allan-bh]

Nintendo is doing better than people think they are, but it's not due to HW. Nintendo is actually the #3 pub in software this year, selling a ton of full price, old catalog product every month.

Sure, it's a far cry from the heady days of the Wii/DS, but they're still pushing very profitable software sales in big ways.

Nintendo has a history of selling old games at full price and on a system like Wii U first party is even more dominant.

To bad Wii U sales are terrible and 3DS is falling.

 

[Fat4all]

Agreed 100%. Syndicate gonna launch very low for a modern AC imo unless it gets crazy good reviews and word of mouth. Unity hurt that franchise badly

That's honestly the only things that would save it. Ubisoft's lack of early hyping and shilling like they've done with every AC since 2 is very ominous.

Normally by now we're engulfed in full "PRE-ORDER NOW, SLOT MACHINE" mode.

 

[Squozen]

TW3 dropped like a rock. Such core games despite being well made still can't attract a larger non-core user base. ;(

I'm guessing the performance issues on consoles made people wait for a price drop. I know that was the case with me.

 

[ZhugeEX]

To bad Wii U sales are terrible

Did you know that Halo as a series has sold more than every single Wii U game combined.

 

[viHuGi]

I'm guessing the performance issues on consoles made people wait for a price drop. I know that was the case with me.

i bought it but not buying any more CDP Games that´s for sure, game is a mess on Ps4, frames drop on some parts badly.

Great game but many problems and too many damn patches.

 

[Obliterator]

That's honestly the only things that would save it. Ubisoft's lack of early hyping and shilling like they've done with every AC since 2 is very ominous.

Normally by now we're engulfed in full "PRE-ORDER NOW, SLOT MACHINE" mode.

Yeah they are oddly silent on this one compared to usual. Not sure if its lack of faith in the quality of the product or they know they are going to take a sales hit and want to save marketing costs.

Ubi really needs to hope atuff like Division, Watch Dogs 2, Siege, etc are both critically and commercially successful. The AC gravy train is coming to a close imo unless they radically turn that franchise around

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

Sony got marketing deals for Battlefront (probably the most expensive one of the year), Destiny, COD, Disney Infinity, Assassin's Creed, Batman, Mortal Kombat, Hitman, and whatever else I'm forgetting. Not to mention moneyhatting SFV and FFVII remake. Microsoft is making way less 3rd party deals then they were last generation. The Xbox division ain't running wild with cash like they were in the Ballmer era, Nadella has been cracking down on them.

Though it's a blessing in disguise as it gives Microsoft more reason to promote and focus on their first party fnord.



It'll probably be bundled too. The solid reviews and not great sales makes it an easy pick to thrown in as a pack in to increase value.

Honestly, I think its less that theyre not doing as well now as they were in the Kinect era, but more that arguably it may be less of a point for them to even bother given their new corporate behaviors. Just ride out the generation and keep going for that telemetry farmer GFWL thing.