NPD Sales Results for August 2015 [PS4 #1 HW/SW, 7M Amiibos LTD, 600K LTD Splatoon]

hodayathink

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Mar 13, 2013
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Guys I've said this before, and I'll say it once more: it is not as black and white as you want it to be. If I am spending $80MM on Adventure Game that I need to put out in fiscal year 2017, and I pitch the game to MS and Sony (because everyone has to... No one owns the platform), and they both love the game, that's great.

Weeks go by, my pre orders are strong and the press love Adventure Game.

I start to get phone calls from MS and Sony to discuss my launch plans.

Sony wants to support me as a preferred title because my early metrics are strong, but it's all with owned channel media only because they too are launching an Adventure Game this year with the same targets and need to spend their cash on that. They see more revenue that way. MS also calls me because my metrics are strong too, but are only launching FPS this year and their targets are slightly different therefor they want my audience and are willing to offer me $6mm in media match because they have the cash and want more market share with that target, in exchange for a tag at the end of my spot and some times exclusive for the messaging....WHY WOULD I CARE MS IS 5MM UNITS BEHIND PLAYSTATION?

That $6mm doubles my reach and awareness, which in turn raises my sales regardless of the platform people buy it on. You can't buy what you don't know. Maybe if you're at 98% awareness you wouldn't care, but that's such a rare exception... Wouldn't you always take the best deal? if anything, platform sales are mostly a factor in what 1st party is willing to offer because they can afford more, as opposed to someone simply choosing one over the other to go with because "feelings"
All this makes perfect sense when you think about things like Uncharted/Tomb Raider, or Battlefront/Halo or even Halo/Destiny.
 

Mory Dunz

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Jun 12, 2012
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Guys I've said this before, and I'll say it once more: it is not as black and white as you want it to be. If I am spending $80MM on Adventure Game that I need to put out in fiscal year 2017, and I pitch the game to MS and Sony (because everyone has to... No one owns the platform), and they both love the game, that's great.

Weeks go by, my pre orders are strong and the press love Adventure Game.

I start to get phone calls from MS and Sony to discuss my launch plans.

Sony wants to support me as a preferred title because my early metrics are strong, but it's all with owned channel media only because they too are launching an Adventure Game this year with the same targets and need to spend their cash on that. They see more revenue that way. MS also calls me because my metrics are strong too, but are only launching FPS this year and their targets are slightly different therefor they want my audience and are willing to offer me $6mm in media match because they have the cash and want more market share with that target, in exchange for a tag at the end of my spot and some times exclusive for the messaging....WHY WOULD I CARE MS IS 5MM UNITS BEHIND PLAYSTATION?

That $6mm doubles my reach and awareness, which in turn raises my sales regardless of the platform people buy it on. You can't buy what you don't know. Maybe if you're at 98% awareness you wouldn't care, but that's such a rare exception... Wouldn't you always take the best deal? if anything, platform sales are mostly a factor in what 1st party is willing to offer because they can afford more, as opposed to someone simply choosing one over the other to go with because "feelings"
.
 

Gold_Loot

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Feb 17, 2013
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Guys I've said this before, and I'll say it once more: it is not as black and white as you want it to be. If I am spending $80MM on Adventure Game that I need to put out in fiscal year 2017, and I pitch the game to MS and Sony (because everyone has to... No one owns the platform), and they both love the game, that's great.

Weeks go by, my pre orders are strong and the press love Adventure Game.

I start to get phone calls from MS and Sony to discuss my launch plans.

Sony wants to support me as a preferred title because my early metrics are strong, but it's all with owned channel media only because they too are launching an Adventure Game this year with the same targets and need to spend their cash on that. They see more revenue that way. MS also calls me because my metrics are strong too, but are only launching FPS this year and their targets are slightly different therefor they want my audience and are willing to offer me $6mm in media match because they have the cash and want more market share with that target, in exchange for a tag at the end of my spot and some times exclusive for the messaging....WHY WOULD I CARE MS IS 5MM UNITS BEHIND PLAYSTATION?

That $6mm doubles my reach and awareness, which in turn raises my sales regardless of the platform people buy it on. You can't buy what you don't know. Maybe if you're at 98% awareness you wouldn't care, but that's such a rare exception... Wouldn't you always take the best deal? if anything, platform sales are mostly a factor in what 1st party is willing to offer because they can afford more, as opposed to someone simply choosing one over the other to go with because "feelings"
That's fine for short term, but in the long run ( such as sequels ) it could work against you as well.
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
17,582
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Santa Destroy
That's fine for short term, but in the long run ( such as sequels ) it could work against you as well.
You're assuming markets are stagnant and are not facturing in M18-34 are M18-34... No matter how old you or I get.

People age out of franchises all the time.
The key is to stay relevant to the people aging in, not out. And money does that in a big way.
 

neogaffer1

Banned
Feb 24, 2014
6,377
0
0
Guys I've said this before, and I'll say it once more: it is not as black and white as you want it to be. If I am spending $80MM on Adventure Game that I need to put out in fiscal year 2017, and I pitch the game to MS and Sony (because everyone has to... No one owns the platform), and they both love the game, that's great.

Weeks go by, my pre orders are strong and the press love Adventure Game.

I start to get phone calls from MS and Sony to discuss my launch plans.

Sony wants to support me as a preferred title because my early metrics are strong, but it's all with owned channel media only because they too are launching an Adventure Game this year with the same targets and need to spend their cash on that. They see more revenue that way. MS also calls me because my metrics are strong too, but are only launching FPS this year and their targets are slightly different therefor they want my audience and are willing to offer me $6mm in media match because they have the cash and want more market share with that target, in exchange for a tag at the end of my spot and some times exclusive for the messaging....WHY WOULD I CARE MS IS 5MM UNITS BEHIND PLAYSTATION?

That $6mm doubles my reach and awareness, which in turn raises my sales regardless of the platform people buy it on. You can't buy what you don't know. Maybe if you're at 98% awareness you wouldn't care, but that's such a rare exception... Wouldn't you always take the best deal? if anything, platform sales are mostly a factor in what 1st party is willing to offer because they can afford more, as opposed to someone simply choosing one over the other to go with because "feelings"
this makes me think, would ms decide to offer less for CoD if they're now trying to push Halo into esports, something CoD dominates? because even though that deal with CoD where all tournaments are played on Xboxes helped MS in terms of establishing CoD as linked with Xbox it does hurt the chances of getting Halo into esports.
 

Sagroth

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Feb 22, 2015
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Until Dawn and Gears of War both did quite well considering how close to the end of the month they released. I'm glad Rare Replay charted as well(such a great collection), though I wish it had ranked higher.

I had kinda figured going in that this might be one of those months where the Xbox One would edge out the PS4 in the states(given the marketing deals and games launching), but I guess not.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
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1,000
Until Dawn and Gears of War both did quite well considering how close to the end of the month they released. I'm glad Rare Replay charted as well(such a great collection), though I wish it had ranked higher.

I had kinda figured going in that this might be one of those months where the Xbox One would edge out the PS4 in the states(given the marketing deals and games launching), but I guess not.
We don't have numbers for Gears and is an IP much more stronger than Until Dawn, so I don't know if we can say that did "quite well".
 

biglittleps

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Feb 4, 2014
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Guys I've said this before, and I'll say it once more: it is not as black and white as you want it to be. If I am spending $80MM on Adventure Game that I need to put out in fiscal year 2017, and I pitch the game to MS and Sony (because everyone has to... No one owns the platform), and they both love the game, that's great.

Weeks go by, my pre orders are strong and the press love Adventure Game.

I start to get phone calls from MS and Sony to discuss my launch plans.

Sony wants to support me as a preferred title because my early metrics are strong, but it's all with owned channel media only because they too are launching an Adventure Game this year with the same targets and need to spend their cash on that. They see more revenue that way. MS also calls me because my metrics are strong too, but are only launching FPS this year and their targets are slightly different therefor they want my audience and are willing to offer me $6mm in media match because they have the cash and want more market share with that target, in exchange for a tag at the end of my spot and some times exclusive for the messaging....WHY WOULD I CARE MS IS 5MM UNITS BEHIND PLAYSTATION?

That $6mm doubles my reach and awareness, which in turn raises my sales regardless of the platform people buy it on. You can't buy what you don't know. Maybe if you're at 98% awareness you wouldn't care, but that's such a rare exception... Wouldn't you always take the best deal? if anything, platform sales are mostly a factor in what 1st party is willing to offer because they can afford more, as opposed to someone simply choosing one over the other to go with because "feelings"
I dont think this is going to work for new IP. Also what about the regions where Xbox is not selling like Europe, Asia and Japan? PS has global exposure so marketing with them allows to reach worldwide market unlike Xbox which is limited to US and UK mostly.
 

Kosma

Banned
Feb 22, 2007
10,842
0
0
Guys I've said this before, and I'll say it once more: it is not as black and white as you want it to be. If I am spending $80MM on Adventure Game that I need to put out in fiscal year 2017, and I pitch the game to MS and Sony (because everyone has to... No one owns the platform), and they both love the game, that's great.

Weeks go by, my pre orders are strong and the press love Adventure Game.

I start to get phone calls from MS and Sony to discuss my launch plans.

Sony wants to support me as a preferred title because my early metrics are strong, but it's all with owned channel media only because they too are launching an Adventure Game this year with the same targets and need to spend their cash on that. They see more revenue that way. MS also calls me because my metrics are strong too, but are only launching FPS this year and their targets are slightly different therefor they want my audience and are willing to offer me $6mm in media match because they have the cash and want more market share with that target, in exchange for a tag at the end of my spot and some times exclusive for the messaging....WHY WOULD I CARE MS IS 5MM UNITS BEHIND PLAYSTATION?

That $6mm doubles my reach and awareness, which in turn raises my sales regardless of the platform people buy it on. You can't buy what you don't know. Maybe if you're at 98% awareness you wouldn't care, but that's such a rare exception... Wouldn't you always take the best deal? if anything, platform sales are mostly a factor in what 1st party is willing to offer because they can afford more, as opposed to someone simply choosing one over the other to go with because "feelings"
Yeah if MS was behind only by 5 million units maybe...
 

BigDug13

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Dec 20, 2006
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It seems so weird to me, that Sony said the PS4 was built with rapid price cuts in mind, just to have it get one after every single other Playstation. :D
Nintendo said the DS brand would be a third pillar alongside the gameboy too. Companies say lots of shit when they're not sure their product will be a runaway success.
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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Wrong conclusions using incorrect "facts" as support based on bad thinking and terrible math.



I know, and that is ridiculously low. It's almost as if he made the bet to lose.
At this point I'm wondering how many of the $450 Vader bundles they're making. I'm guessing someone over there is trying to figure out how to make more given how nuts the world's gone for Star Wars. One has to imagine that a whoooooooole bunch of PS4 Star Wars bundles are going to move this holiday. At $399 or above. Because that's what PS4's will be selling for Nov 17th.

Zhuge, what are you showing as PS4 LTD IB after Aug?
 

Ryng_tolu

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Jul 7, 2015
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Well, time for talk about September sales... I think PS4 will sell between 400-450k.
Sure over 370,000, with Destiny bundle and Metal Gear September should be the bigger month of 2015.

About XBO, 250-300k? I don't think will sell more than in June, unless another insane promotion...in that case over 300k.

PS4 vs. PS3, PS2, PS1
interesting graphic.
 

EGM1966

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Aug 5, 2011
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It seems so weird to me, that Sony said the PS4 was built with rapid price cuts in mind, just to have it get one after every single other Playstation. :D
Sales clearly exceeded their expectations so why cut the price? Sure they made it so they could cut price quickly figuring on a tough global fight with MS and Wii U but once they stormed into a global lead the idea of early price cuts was obviously immediately shelved.

Nothing weird about it. What would have been odd was if they did cut the price when they didn't have to just because they could.

When your market hands you higher than expected sales and profits you change your plans accordingly.

MS of course got caught other way around, having to change their plans to react to unexpected market challenges.
 

PdotMichael

Banned
Feb 9, 2011
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0
Later price cuts would also mean a longer tail.

Wouldn't be surprised if we will see the next console some years later now than originally expected.
 

anexanhume

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Apr 2, 2013
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Later price cuts would also mean a longer tail.

Wouldn't be surprised if we will see the next console some years later now than originally expected.
To be frank we didn't necessarily expect a next console at the start of this generation.

What we're seeing is MS against the wall in terms of profit margin and Sony heads unwilling to lower price and profit for a struggling company. We have a stalemate where both are selling about the same.

I'm beginning to wonder if MS will do something to spur the price cut from Sony rather than them cutting to boost holiday sales or reinvigorate after the holiday boost is gone. The biggest problem is that Sony could be jeopardizing their long term market share and overall sales as a consequence for short term profit margin.
 

Boke1879

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Apr 25, 2013
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Wrong conclusions using incorrect "facts" as support based on bad thinking and terrible math.





At this point I'm wondering how many of the $450 Vader bundles they're making. I'm guessing someone over there is trying to figure out how to make more given how nuts the world's gone for Star Wars. One has to imagine that a whoooooooole bunch of PS4 Star Wars bundles are going to move this holiday. At $399 or above. Because that's what PS4's will be selling for Nov 17th.

Zhuge, what are you showing as PS4 LTD IB after Aug?
It's good that Sony and all these retailers are taking preorders for the bundle now. But marketing for that bundle clearly hasn't started in full force yet.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
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Ipoh, Malaysia
Wrong conclusions using incorrect "facts" as support based on bad thinking and terrible math.





At this point I'm wondering how many of the $450 Vader bundles they're making. I'm guessing someone over there is trying to figure out how to make more given how nuts the world's gone for Star Wars. One has to imagine that a whoooooooole bunch of PS4 Star Wars bundles are going to move this holiday. At $399 or above. Because that's what PS4's will be selling for Nov 17th.

Zhuge, what are you showing as PS4 LTD IB after Aug?
Even if the PS4 does stay at $399, I think it's highly likely that it will surpass 30 million sold through by the end of 2015. Like you said, the world will go crazy for Star Wars in November, so I expect Sony to have a large supply of stock to meet the demands. Those Star Wars bundles alone are gonna sell incredibly well, and I believe we will see the inevitable COD BO3 bundle soon.
 

slavesnyder

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Nov 18, 2013
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It seems so weird to me, that Sony said the PS4 was built with rapid price cuts in mind, just to have it get one after every single other Playstation. :D
Saying and doing are two things.
Imagine they really managed to get the COGs down and now earn 100 bucks on every console sold.
Do the maths what this means alone for this rather slow month.
Also, this gives them the opportunity to do "special deals" that don't even cost them money whenever they want, creating buzz and urge.
Black friday - 100 dollars off and not a single scratch.

Also, this gives warchest money for even more marketing deals. Next stop: Titanfall 2
 

CosmicQueso

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Feb 16, 2010
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It's good that Sony and all these retailers are taking preorders for the bundle now. But marketing for that bundle clearly hasn't started in full force yet.
That's the scary part! Force Friday was just the start of what's most likely going to end up being the biggest consumer marketing push for an entertainment IP in history.

Black friday - 100 dollars off and not a single scratch.
Exactly. Best door buster a retailer could have for BF with no hit to everyday margins.

Even if the PS4 does stay at $399, I think it's highly likely that it will surpass 30 million sold through by the end of 2015.
Probably, yep.

Like you said, the world will go crazy for Star Wars in November, so I expect Sony to have a large supply of stock to meet the demands. Those Star Wars bundles alone are gonna sell incredibly well, and I believe we will see the inevitable COD BO3 bundle soon.
Absolutely agree with you there.

So, you're now with the no price drop is needed in 2015 crowd?
 

unapersson

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Oct 5, 2013
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Do they have sufficient supply now to support a price cut? As far as I can see global shipments aren't that far ahead of global sales.
 

slavesnyder

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Nov 18, 2013
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I want a price drop for personal reasons.
But I slowly get why I will still have to wait a little.
It will be hard saying no with all what's coming up, but I guess that's exactly why they don't need to drop the price. There are too many out there not as tough, high on priciples and strong of will as I am.

Shitty market mechanics.
 

unapersson

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Oct 5, 2013
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I would imagine their supply chain is super efficient at this point.
I bet it is, but at the same time they're shipping globally. I always suspected the reason for them not doing a US price cut last year was that they were still recovering from the supply issues in Europe. There's no point selling out a reduced price if you were going to sell all you could produce anyway at a higher price.

That said I'm not sure how the supply ramp up for Christmas goes. I'd assume they'd need to produce more if they were going to do a price cut.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Jul 7, 2015
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Safe bet to assume PS4 will outsell Xboxone in September by over 100k?
Last year the gap was >250k, and so far the month with the bigger gap is March with >100k... June and February are a bit less than 70k.

Yeah, i think PS4 will beat XBO by over 100k but depend on what MS did this month.
 

serversurfer

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Aug 31, 2013
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Is not going to happen, wanna do an avatar bet?
Nope, because I have no idea what Sony will actually end up doing. :p But, a $100 cut wouldn't be quite as brutal as you think. They're already selling the console bundled with a game for $400. Just change that to $300 with no game, or $350 with a game. $300 will get you a bundle on Black Friday, and maybe the week leading in to Christmas in the unlikely event they have any bundles left.

So if you've pre-ordered one of those Star Wars bundles, you'll pay — and Sony will collect — $50 less than originally planned. That's not a huge change in revenue or profits for them, but the $300 unbundled console opens the door to a huge pool of buyers, and again, since Sony don't need to pay for the game, the $300 price point doesn't lower their initial profitability all that much. Now they have another user they can start selling games and services to immediately, who will also evangelize to their friends going forward. More importantly, that's a user who didn't buy your competitor's console just because it was cheaper.

So as I said, I have no idea how Kaz and Andy see things, but if they can afford to cut the price this holiday — and it seems likely they can afford it — then it seems a bit shortsighted not to do so.


Sony wants to support me as a preferred title because my early metrics are strong, but it's all with owned channel media only because they too are launching an Adventure Game this year with the same targets and need to spend their cash on that. They see more revenue that way. MS also calls me because my metrics are strong too, but are only launching FPS this year and their targets are slightly different therefor they want my audience and are willing to offer me $6mm in media match because they have the cash and want more market share with that target, in exchange for a tag at the end of my spot and some times exclusive for the messaging....WHY WOULD I CARE MS IS 5MM UNITS BEHIND PLAYSTATION?
The problem with your hypothetical is that it ignores some realities and distorts others. First, Sony aren't 5M units ahead; it's probably closer to 10M. More important though is the fact that whatever the actual hardware count, at the end of the day PS4 users are buying about two-and-a-half times as much of your software. Since these deals typically involve delaying paid content to the non-favored platform(s), it seems a bit foolish to delay and likely reduce what was supposed to be 70% of your DLC revenues. I imagine a game like Star Wars will sell enough DLC that a $6M payoff would seem like a pittance in the grand scheme of things. Then there are the intangibles, like the fact that twice as many users are watching Sony's conferences. That said, your point is basically sound, and it would be comparatively easy for MS to buy the loyalty of smaller devs, to whom $6M actually was a lot of money.

Another aspect of your scenario involves Sony's offer being comparatively weak in general. Yes, weak offers may cause some devs to go elsewhere, but that just reinforces what I was saying earlier; the fact that PlayStation is where all of the money is being made means developers will naturally take their games to Sony until such time as Sony deplete their marketing budget. And with more than double the revenues, Sony's marketing budget is likely comparatively large. And as discussed above, given the difference in marketshare, Sony's offer would need to be quite weak indeed before associating yourself with PlayStation didn't seem like the better plan.


I don't think Sony cares that much about Microsoft shrinking their lead as long as they hit their targets in terms of unit sales of their console (which, judging by the fact that they only barely missed their FY prediction on consoles sold last year even though the PS3 dropped faster than nearly everyone expected, I think they did).
Well, keep in mind their forecast is how many they expect to sell, not how many they'd like to sell. Forecasting 10M units doesn't mean they wouldn't prefer to sell 15M; it means they're pretty sure they'll sell 11M+ with the current strategy as detailed. Also, I'm sure they'd prefer if their forecasts didn't completely telegraph their strategy, but I have no ideas what rules the SEC would have in place regarding that kind of stuff, if any.



Gah!!

It's my birthday in 3 days. The big 21!
Oh! Happy Birthday!! <3
 

Boke1879

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That's the scary part! Force Friday was just the start of what's most likely going to end up being the biggest consumer marketing push for an entertainment IP in history.



Exactly. Best door buster a retailer could have for BF with no hit to everyday margins.



Probably, yep.



Absolutely agree with you there.

So, you're now with the no price drop is needed in 2015 crowd?
Yup. Those toys sold so damn well on Force Friday. wait until EA starts marketing Battlefront. That mixed with the SW marketing in general means things could get crazy.
 

slavesnyder

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Last year the gap was >250k, and so far the month with the bigger gap is March with >100k... June and February are a bit less than 70k.

Yeah, i think PS4 will beat XBO by over 100k but depend on what MS did this month.
MS won't react this month. They want to win Halo-month. And every console sold in september will not be bought in October.
September is lost to MGS and Destiny aka Sony.
 

Boke1879

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MS won't react this month. They want to win Halo-month. And every console sold in september will not be bought in October.
September is lost to MGS and Destiny aka Sony.
With MGSV the game and the TKK bundle I can see Sony selling over 300k this month. Maybe even 350K. So yea if they can reach that I think they'll outsell the comp by 100K. If that's the case wouldn't that put the gap in NA at over 800k?

Then when October hits things get interesting.
 

Ryng_tolu

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MS won't react this month. They want to win Halo-month. And every console sold in september will not be bought in October.
September is lost to MGS and Destiny aka Sony.
yeah, and like PS4 should win by 100-150k in September, i expect a similar gap in October on XBO favor, maybe a bit less...

With MGSV the game and the TKK bundle I can see Sony selling over 300k this month. Maybe even 350K.
Then when October hits things get interesting.
...So, you expect less sales than in June??????? No way... PS4 will be over 400k in September.
 

Boke1879

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yeah, and like PS4 should win by 100-150k in September, i expect a similar gap in October on XBO favor, maybe a bit less...



...So, you expect less sales than in June??????? No way... PS4 will be over 400k in September.
I'm definitely lowballing it because I don't know how well TKK is going to push PS4 consoles. Vanilla Destiny Bundle did amazing for the PS4 last time around. But with TKK have people soured on the experience? I don't know. If they reach 400k that would be amazing.
 
Jun 26, 2013
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yeah, and like PS4 should win by 100-150k in September, i expect a similar gap in October on XBO favor, maybe a bit less...

...So, you expect less sales than in June??????? No way... PS4 will be over 400k in September.
I would predict >400K without a doubt if the MGSV bundle was also released in the US. However, there is only the TKK bundle and we're not sure how many people will buy it in comparison to last year's Destiny bundle.
 

John Harker

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Feb 26, 2005
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I dont think this is going to work for new IP. Also what about the regions where Xbox is not selling like Europe, Asia and Japan? PS has global exposure so marketing with them allows to reach worldwide market unlike Xbox which is limited to US and UK mostly.
Depends which office is making the deal... Subsidiaries have budge too
 

slavesnyder

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I'm definitely lowballing it because I don't know how well TKK is going to push PS4 consoles. Vanilla Destiny Bundle did amazing for the PS4 last time around. But with TKK have people soured on the experience? I don't know. If they reach 400k that would be amazing.
Logically people who played Destiny own a console already.
So TTK has to bring newbies.
MGS5 seems more valuable to sell consoles.
 

Ryng_tolu

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I'm definitely lowballing it because I don't know how well TKK is going to push PS4 consoles. Vanilla Destiny Bundle did amazing for the PS4 last time around. But with TKK have people soured on the experience? I don't know. If they reach 400k that would be amazing.
The PS4 sold thanks Batman: Arkham Knight bundle 366,000 unit this June, with only 2 weeks of sales.

in September PS4 has for an entire month Metal Gear Solid V ( and doesn't matter the bundle, it will still sell a lot of PS4 ), and 3 weeks of Destiny bundle. But it has even FIFA, NHL, Mad Max, those are small release, but will still sell some console.

September seem waaaaaaaaaaaaaay bigger than June, so, 300-350k is definitive too low.

I would predict >400K without a doubt if the MGSV bundle was also released in the US. However, there is only the TKK bundle and we're not sure how many people will buy it in comparison to last year's Destiny bundle.
Destiny bundle sold 300,000 last year... even if this time TTK bundle will sell 1/4, it will sell 75,000, and that's still a lot. And there is Metal Gear.
I don't say PS4 will sell like last year, but i'm pretty sure PS4 will sell more than in June.