NPD Sales Results for August 2015 [PS4 #1 HW/SW, 7M Amiibos LTD, 600K LTD Splatoon]

Jul 7, 2015
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Well part of the reason is because holiday sales are more split between November and December nowadays. Sure DS/WII did those numbers despite this but during GBA/PS2 gen november wasn't as big as it's today.
Well, now November is become much more important than in the 6th gen or even start of 7th gen, but WII/DS always sold those shit of numbers.
I mean, in October 2008, the Wii sold nearly equal to PS4 in November 2014...

The DS in April 2009 sold 1,040,000, those are November/December numbers but in April. It was the month of DSi release, but still...

Wii and DS were absolutely beasting. PS2 and GBA though... only those 4 console sold >2 million during a month.

It took the Wii U 2 years and 4 months to sell what the Wii sold in December 2009.
 
Aug 31, 2013
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Serversurfer acting bit too much like he is some kind of authority and voice of reason. Come down from that tower and talk without condescending tone, like others do, even when disagreeing.
Someone asked why I continue to engage in these "debates," so I tried to explain it. I'm sorry if my motivations strike you as too pious or something, but I'm not sure how else to explain it. I'm sorry if I come off as condescending; I certainly don't mean to. =/


Seriously. Harker spin?
He doesn't call it that. He refers to it as choosing his words carefully, to play with people's perspectives, in an effort to prevent them from bashing [unnamed console].


End of the day the posters who post on this forum with an inside view of the industry don't owe us anything and you're acting like you expect a full tour of their workplace and industry before anything they say can be trustworthy.
Of course, I wasn't suggesting anything of the sort. I was just pointing out the types of contributions which would benefit GAF, as opposed to the kind that only benefit MS. I appreciate the former, but not if it means we must suffer the latter in silence. Hell, I don't even begrudge him the right to say his thing, but I see no reason I shouldn't be allowed to respond. People can draw their own conclusions about who made the better argument. Unfortunately, I usually don't get a rebuttal in situations like these; just a bunch of name-calling, mocking, and declarations of victory.


serversurfer's attempt to smear John Harker is hilarious
No, it was John who attempted to smear me, rather than respond to my criticisms. I posted a clear and calm explanation of why I thought his post was off-topic and even misleading given what we know about the actual state of the market. The only response he offered was to say I was too dumb to understand the purpose of his post. Having made it clear he'd rather discuss issues like credibility and motivations than the substance of his post, I obliged him. Maybe he thought attacking my character would be easier than attacking my argument. Maybe he was right. /shrug


Anyway…


299$? No chance. That's a huge money loss. 329$ was not from MS, but from some retailers ( IIRC Target ).
As I recall, the $329 price was only official on Black Friday and then it went back to $349, but some retailers had it at $329 off and on through the holiday. I think Amazon actually kept it at $329 through Christmas and beyond. Additionally, there were various retailer-specific promotions like gift cards and more free games, but it seems likely MS were covering any costs associated with those promotions. We've been told that's typically how it works, regardless of platform. These retailers aren't charities; if they're coming out of their own pocket to move stock, they won't be ordering much more.

Anyway, are we actually sure $300 would be a "huge money loss" for either company? I know the Bone costs a bit more to build, but we're nearly two years out from launch. Sony have done a redesign that cut their RAM chips in half. Have MS done a redesign yet? Are we that sure these companies can't have shaved ~$100 off of their BOMs in two years? What are current build costs estimated at?


Nice analysis. Kudos. You mention a lot of people still on last-gen, especially buyers with young children. Does it seem likely these are groups who are simply waiting for price cuts before upgrading? Clearly, they haven't lost their interest in console gaming in general, so price seems the most likely suspect holding them back. Thoughts?


Effectively taking $220 off a console's sale price from the previous holiday season isn't "almost nothing", it's the single largest factor, and it can't be repeated for 2015, because the console is currently available for $350.
That's kind of what I've been getting at. MS shot their load last holiday, and there's not much room for them to make any significant cuts this year. That said, even a repeat of last year isn't that great for Sony, when they lost 600k of their lead. If Sony can afford to hit $299 this holiday and do so, they could easily flip last year's loss in to a similar gain. Sure, they could wait until Spring or even later before cutting, but that likely just gives them more ground to regain again. MS made a lot of hay last holiday at the lower price point. Right now, Sony are asking themselves if they want to leave that market entirely to MS again this year or start claiming some of it for themselves. (Well, I suspect they've already decided, but yeah.)
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Launch aligned, the only (ONLY) month the Wii U sold more than the Gamecube was the 2nd June, and it was by <20k.

It was only until 2006 where the Gamecube would be <100k every month excluding holidays. Wii U did this in its first year, managed to avoid this in its second (June), but will do it again this year.
 
Jun 19, 2014
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Launch aligned, the only (ONLY) month the Wii U sold more than the Gamecube was the 2nd June, and it was by <20k.

It was only until 2006 where the Gamecube would be <100k every month excluding holidays. Wii U did this in its first year, managed to avoid this in its second (June), but will do it again this year.
To be fair GC had better third party support. The WiiU is a tougher sell because you can't play most, if not all, third party titles. Thus, you have to have another console (PS4/X1) or PC.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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To be fair GC had better third party support. The WiiU is a tougher sell because you can't play most, if not all, third party titles. Thus, you have to have another console (PS4/X1) or PC.
GC got a good third party support, and was selling for 149$ and 99$.
The sales was usually between 100,000 and 150,000, some month was over 200,000, the GC sold 12,000,000, and is not bad in my opinion, problem is that it sold like crap in Europe and Japan...
 
Apr 25, 2013
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Agreed. The numbers in which compelling bundles fly off the shelves this gen continues to impress me. I expect Sony to reach 36 million consoles by year's end. That Battlefront bundle in particular is gonna be huge. I really do fully expect Sony to win November's NPD with record setting numbers (for both consoles), considering that the season's (and really, the year's) two biggest titles are not cross gen. If you want to play Battlefront and/or Fallout, you NEED to adopt current gen. Expect sales records this holiday season, GAF. I also expect that momentum to continue into 2016, my predicted peak year for PS4 and X1. Starting now, most major AAA releases barring CoD are leaving 7th gen behind, so more people will be forced to make the jump to 8th gen. Hell, I'll be surprised if next year's CoD is still cross-gen. 2016 is gonna be a big year.
Yup. I keep forgetting Fallout. It's going to be a beast of a game and you're right in order to play it you MUST adopt current gen.
 
Mar 9, 2015
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The Xbox One had 3 bundles of limited availability, 1 with a broken game, barely any other options available outside that broken bundle outside Kinect, and Halo MCC being the only games of relevant impact since those games released in 2013, and a few multiplats.

This year Xbox one has a bunch of big games, price cuts, deals, more options bundle or not, including the biggest multiplats, and BC which is included with some games and will be lvie by the time, exclusive content for a couple games. Same with the PS4, although the game front may be a bit low, they still have a decent selection and rights to big games, which will sell very well, and this applies to them selling on Xbox one as well to a lesser extend.

The years aren't even comparable. We have some of the biggest series and hyped games with tons of bundled options from both sides giving a higher variety of choice and metting demand for that choice, along with the usual deals and retailer price cuts and you think neither will go over 2 million?

Xbox One did 1.2 million with almost nothing but price cuts and "initial" interest in Unity. Which was gone probably within the same month. PS4 was laying back outside the GTAV deal until December.

Now we have rows of games starting in September to october to november and December, and that previous 2 month build up will help both in the holidays, I say it's unlikely rither will be below 2 million. Look at Starwars, COD, Fifa, Madden, gears, uncharted Collection, Destiny, Metal Gear, Forza, Halo, Fall Out, bundles bundles BUNDLES!!!!
Hermain, you son of a gun.
 
May 23, 2013
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Nice analysis. Kudos. You mention a lot of people still on last-gen, especially buyers with young children. Does it seem likely these are groups who are simply waiting for price cuts before upgrading? Clearly, they haven't lost their interest in console gaming in general, so price seems the most likely suspect holding them back. Thoughts?
Thanks.

There are certainly a lot of people on last gen and that includes a big bulk of users that don't use them anymore and haven't upgraded yet. Of course it also includes people who do use their old last gen consoles and haven't upgraded yet but what we're seeing is that last generation software and hardware sell through is dropping very very fast.

This year, software sell through on PS3/360 and Wii dropped by 51% YOY. However new software for PS4/XB1 only grew 34% YOY which wasn't enough to offset the declines seen in last gen.

So the audience that still is on last gen isn't exactly going out and buying loads of games, they're buying less and less because the people left on old gen are mostly the people who were casuals/families and never spent much anyway. So that means they'll still be purchasing mainstream games like Fifa and Call of Duty (hence why they're still last gen) as well as family friendly games such as Minecraft or Just Dance etc...

The reason they haven't upgraded is because there is no reason for them to upgrade just yet if they can get those mainstream games on their old console. Once we see more next gen only titles, as we will this holiday then no doubt some will upgrade when the price is right.

Or they'll upgrade/transition to a device outside of consoles where they can get the same/similar experiences cheaper and more conveniently. That could be PC, or Mobile, or Micro consoles.

So it's important to keep in mind that just because last gen hardware and software sales are dropping hard it doesn't meant they're all upgrading to next gen. They're either still holding on to last gen for those mainstream titles or have already abandoned consoles for other gaming experiences. (not to say they won't buy a console later)
 
Dec 5, 2014
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I guess you could say the force is strong with this one.

This makes sense right? I've heard other people say this haha
+1 for someone who's never watched Star Wars.

Still though, I'm amazed that the $399 Star Wars bundle hasn't charted yet, it includes everything but Darth Vader. I guess it'll get some legs when the Limited Edition runs out and be the default PS4 SKU that replaces TLOU SKU.
 
Apr 25, 2013
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The $449 Star Wars PS4 has already overtaken the September Destiny bundle in Amazon's Month-to-date charts.


Wat?

This can't be right?
I knew it was going to be huge but i thought it was going to tail off after a bit. It's still holding strong. and the marketing for that hasn't even started yet.

Just wait until EA and DICE actually start marketing the game and you see this bundle as the tagline of ever pitch. It's about to be huge.
 
Dec 6, 2012
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+1 for someone who's never watched Star Wars.

Still though, I'm amazed that the $399 Star Wars bundle hasn't charted yet, it includes everything but Darth Vader. I guess it'll get some legs when the Limited Edition runs out and be the default PS4 SKU that replaces TLOU SKU.
Yep same strategy they did with Batman sku.
 
Feb 28, 2015
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+1 for someone who's never watched Star Wars.

Still though, I'm amazed that the $399 Star Wars bundle hasn't charted yet, it includes everything but Darth Vader. I guess it'll get some legs when the Limited Edition runs out and be the default PS4 SKU that replaces TLOU SKU.
Your life will be hollow until you watch the original trilogy.

The marketing hasn't really started for these bundles, so the people who are buying them right now are the ones who have been waiting anxiously for them (i.e. Big Star Wars fans). So they are the ones who are most likely to drop the extra $50.

Also is it just the LE bundles that will include the 5 older games? Is so, that factors in also.

I believe Star Wars bundle to sell like Calll of Duty: Advanced Warfare bundle XBO this November ( 200k ).

.
Don't underestimate the power of the Force
 
Apr 25, 2013
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I believe Star Wars bundle to sell like Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare bundle XBO this November ( 200k ).

For another comparation, Destiny White bundle sold 300,000 in September 2014, and Batman bundle sold 120,000 in June 2015.
We shall see. Sony will no doubt have a COD bundle, Battlefront bundle and MAYBE an AC bundle?

I can also see Sony being very cunning and offering Fallout 4 free with the purchase of any PS4 the week of release
 
Aug 31, 2013
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This year, software sell through on PS3/360 and Wii dropped by 51% YOY. However new software for PS4/XB1 only grew 34% YOY which wasn't enough to offset the declines seen in last gen.
In dollars rather than units, I assume? What about my theory that the drop in software spending has been caused by the increase in hardware spending? Having spent $400 on my PS4, I stopped buying software for my PS3, but that also left me with comparatively little to spend on PS4 software that first year. Hasn't overall spending in the space been flat-to-up? Seems like we need to break this stuff down a little more before we can really understand what's happening.

So the audience that still is on last gen isn't exactly going out and buying loads of games, they're buying less and less because the people left on old gen are mostly the people who were casuals/families and never spent much anyway. So that means they'll still be purchasing mainstream games like Fifa and Call of Duty (hence why they're still last gen) as well as family friendly games such as Minecraft or Just Dance etc...
Sure, that makes sense; more casual users are probably buying a variety of software, but they only make a sound on the bigger titles like LEGO or CoD. How much is being spent per generation? Gen7 software is down 51%, but from what to what? What about the other numbers? How much of the spending that has gone missing from Gen7 has appeared in Gen8, and how much is still unaccounted for?

The reason they haven't upgraded is because there is no reason for them to upgrade just yet if they can get those mainstream games on their old console. Once we see more next gen only titles, as we will this holiday then no doubt some will upgrade when the price is right.
Do you really think it's just because they haven't been forced? If CoD was Gen8-only, I don't think that would compel many to jump in at $400 if they'd already been waiting for $300. Seems like most would continue to wait, while complaining about being "abandoned for overpriced hardware" or whatever. People can be quite stubborn about what they consider "worth it," and dragging them kicking and screaming tends to make them all the more stubborn.

I think everyone gaming on their PS3 realizes PS4 will give them a better experience, but opinions will vary wildly on whether that's $400 better, $300 better, or what. Personally, I think people are dumb to wait for price drops on something like a console. Even if Sony do drop to $300 this year, that means you could've gotten in at launch for only $100 more. So I've been able to enjoy the new hotness for two years, at the cost of about 14¢/day. I'd call that a bargain, but others will certainly disagree.

Or they'll upgrade/transition to a device outside of consoles where they can get the same/similar experiences cheaper and more conveniently. That could be PC, or Mobile, or Micro consoles.
Well, I do believe a lot of the Wii audience has already migrated to mobile. Devices like the new Apple TV could lure some of those back in to gaming on the big screen, especially if Apple can really nail cross-save in the way that Sony couldn't, which seems likely, knowing Apple.

So it's important to keep in mind that just because last gen hardware and software sales are dropping hard it doesn't meant they're all upgrading to next gen. They're either still holding on to last gen for those mainstream titles or have already abandoned consoles for other gaming experiences. (not to say they won't buy a console later)
Sure, I wasn't really saying there was some vast pool of buyers so much as asking why people who were buying software for Gen7 weren't buying it for Gen8 instead. Seems like, "It's not worth the price yet," would be a likely argument for that group. I have no idea how many of those there are though.


The $449 Star Wars PS4 has already overtaken the September Destiny bundle in Amazon's Month-to-date charts.


Wat?

This can't be right?
Well, fuck; what do I know? Maybe they really can continue to grow their lead by doing nothing.


I guess you could say the force is strong with this one.

This makes sense right? I've heard other people say this haha
lol Seriously, it's not really as good as Star Trek, but it's worth checking out. One thing I always thought was kinda cool about the Star Wars universe was that lots of people understood alien, but no one was actually able to speak it.
 
May 23, 2013
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Do you really think it's just because they haven't been forced? If CoD was Gen8-only, I don't think that would compel many to jump in at $400 if they'd already been waiting for $300. Seems like most would continue to wait, while complaining about being "abandoned for overpriced hardware" or whatever. People can be quite stubborn about what they consider "worth it," and dragging them kicking and screaming tends to make them all the more stubborn.
That's why I also said the price has to be right as well.

The point here was more that families aren't going to spend $400 on a console to play games they can get on their PS3/360.

And yes, software sales is in $ value. There has been a strong decline on last gen software spend which hasn't been offset with new next gen software spend.

I don't think your theory is right at all to be honest as usually we see total software sales grow after a new generation. But last gen software has dropped way too much. It's only once you add in used game sales do you see the balance.

But to back up my point, just look at software spend in 2006 and then compare it to 2007/2008. It's much much higher after the launch of next gen. 2015 software sales have been abysmal by comparison. Thankfully publishers now have DLC and other monetisation / distribution methods to make console development worthwhile.
 
May 23, 2013
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Trust me. I KNOW how big it is. But there are people that legit don't realize how much money this franchise makes even in a non movie year.
That's why I posted it haha :)

I was shocked when I saw that.

lol Seriously, it's not really as good as Star Trek, but it's worth checking out. One thing I always thought was kinda cool about the Star Wars universe was that lots of people understood alien, but no one was actually able to speak it.
Bro I never seen Star Wars, Star Trek, Star whatever there is.
 
Dec 13, 2013
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Wii was supply constrained in November 2009 iirc, which lead to such a huge December.
Nope, it wasn't supply constrained. It's actually one of the most interesting NPD months in gaming history -- historically speaking.

Wii had been readily available all year. Sales were actually on a downward trend, and Nintendo cut the price (in Summer I believe). The reason why Wii sold so much in Holiday 2009 was because of one game: New Super Mario Bros Wii.
 
Feb 24, 2013
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I don't think it's people not liking SW but them just not realizing how big of a brand it really is.
Yeah it's a big International brand. To this day I think the 4 Billion Dollars Disney paid for Lucas Arts was highway robbery. I'm guessing in one month we won't be able to go 30 minutes on the internet and TV without seeing a Star Wars ad.

I do wonder what the non-hardcore gaming Star Wars fan will make of Battlefront because of lack of story.
 
Apr 25, 2013
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Yeah it's a big International brand. To this day I think the 4 Billion Dollars Disney paid for Lucas Arts was highway robbery. I'm guessing in one month we won't be able to go 30 minutes on the internet and TV without seeing a Star Wars ad.

I do wonder what the non-hardcore gaming Star Wars fan will make of Battlefront because of lack of story.
I said the same thing. 4 Billion will be nothing. They'll make that money back on the toys and merch alone.

The hype will get to some people and they'll buy the game. Some will drop it since it's multiplayer only and COD will definitely be out.

But I think it'll have a thriving community.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Nope, it wasn't supply constrained. It's actually one of the most interesting NPD months in gaming history -- historically speaking.

Wii had been readily available all year. Sales were actually on a downward trend, and Nintendo cut the price (in Summer I believe). The reason why Wii sold so much in Holiday 2009 was because of one game: New Super Mario Bros Wii.
Oh, I thought I read somewhere that it was supply constrained.

2D Mario's sell like hotcakes and are the most popular version of Mario, but contributing that much for the system is insane.
 
Jun 23, 2015
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Nintendo next console better be a hit because Wii U is in a very bad position right now, that´s what you get from betting on the casuals, short term sales.

PlayStation and Xbox built a brand with online and core gamers and it pays.
 
Dec 13, 2013
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Oh, I thought I read somewhere that it was supply constrained.

2D Mario's sell like hotcakes and are the most popular version of Mario, but contributing that much for the system is insane.
Not in the same way that the Wii was supposedly "supply constrained" during its first few years. Wii hardware manufacturing had caught up long before, and sales were starting to drop over the course of the year. It wasn't a matter of too few Wiis on the shelves.

Now, "sold out"? That's entirely possible.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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I understand that some people do not like Star Wars, but c'mon, it's huge, please V
... What i underestimate? :-|
I mean, 200k is poor For you guys?

Oh, I thought I read somewhere that it was supply constrained.

2D Mario's sell like hotcakes and are the most popular version of Mario, but contributing that much for the system is insane.
Mario Kart is bigger than 2D Mario.
Both sold Like a Monster on the Wii, Kart Wii nearly 40 million and New Super Mario Bros Wii nearly 30 million.

Crazy.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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Thread moved fast with...

People not believing in the dark side of the force?

C'mon... it is fine not like Star Wars but the franchise is gigaton in any type of media... the sales of the LE is just expected.

... What i underestimate? :-|
I mean, 200k is poor For you guys?
For Star Wars? Yes.

My prediction is PS4 will do over 1 million in November with SW bundle accounting for about 30-40% of the PS4 sales.
 

Sez

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Jun 2, 2013
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I believe Star Wars bundle to sell like Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare bundle XBO this November ( 200k ).

For another comparation, Destiny White bundle sold 300,000 in September 2014, and Batman bundle sold 120,000 in June 2015.
... What i underestimate? :-|
I mean, 200k is poor For you guys?
You expect the SW bundle in HOLIDAYS to sell slighty more (80k more) than the Batman one in summer?

You think AW in Xbone has the SAME appeal, anticipation, thirst than SW on PS4?

Is not only Star Wars, it's also November, the second bigger month of the year.
 
Oct 10, 2010
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August previous cycles:

Historical Notes:

Aug 09:
Wii sells 277k,
PS360 sell about the same between 210-215k. Between the big three Wii sold 39% (31% and 30% for PS360) this is quite a drop from the wiidomination we have seen.
Wii Sports Resort explodes in its second month but still nothing can ever topple the Madden August launch.

Aug 04:
GC sells 110k to 203k-212k for XB and PS2 respectfully (their closeness is quite similar to '09...eerie).
June's semi-hit, Zelda: Four Swords Adventure reaches 240,000 LTD. Tales of Symphonia pushing big numbers for a franchise that had little success outside hardcore RPG circles until now :)

Aug 99:
N64 170k
PSX 260k
Pokémon Snap is strong in its second month, as is Mario Golf 64. FFVII back on charts as VIII launches next month.

Aug 94:
SNES 120k
GEN 110k
Super SFII finds the greatest love on SNES (over GEN) after their launch last month. Street Fighter this year is considerably down from last year's "Turbo" and the Genesis "Special Champion Edition". "Turbo" last year shipped 250,000 in its opening week last August! Stunt Race FX does decently in its second month has the 3D Mario Kart killer arrived? ;) The beginning of the fall RPG season begins with the classic, Breath of Fire, doing moderately well at a not-so-moderate price lol Griffey > Sega Sports, who will win? The Spring release, Super Metroid, breaks a quarter million.



Last month: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=175476159&highlight=#post175476159