NPD Sales Results for August 2015 [PS4 #1 HW/SW, 7M Amiibos LTD, 600K LTD Splatoon]

Jul 7, 2015
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You expect the SW bundle in HOLIDAYS to sell slighty more (80k more) than the Batman one in summer?

You think AW in Xbone has the SAME appeal, anticipation, thirst than SW on PS4?

Is not only Star Wars, it's also November, the second bigger month of the year.
And i also expect it to sell Like Call of Duty AW in the holidays 2014... And it is Call of Duty... Or maybe you think Star Wars Will be bigger than Call of Duty this holidays? Lol.

For Star Wars? Yes.

My prediction is PS4 will do over 1 million in November with SW bundle accounting for about 30-40% of the PS4 sales.
I agree about >1 million for PS4, but 40% is Too much. Maaaaybe 30%.
Don't forget most likely we Will see an Black Ops III bundle, and other crazy deal For PS4.
 
Mar 20, 2012
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Impossible for PS4 and X1 to get those high Wii/DS numbers, but both will have a good stronger Holiday's than last year IMO because of the third party software. plus the comparison is kinda stupid because those machines were $250-$150 dollars.

Also think 2016 will be peak year.
 

Sez

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And i also expect it to sell Like Call of Duty AW in the holidays 2014... And it is Call of Duty... Or maybe you think Star Wars Will be bigger than Call of Duty this holidays? Lol.
Seriously, you need to think before write.

Talking about bundles:
You are comparing a game released also on PS3/360 against a game that wont be released on those platforms?
You are comparing the WEAKEST game of a yearly declining franchise against a game fans have been expecting for years?
You are comparing a game without a movie against a game with the biggest movie this year?

Its Star Wars, in Holidays, CurrentGen exclusive, with a movie.

SW is bigger than CoD, but not in the videogame industry.
Call of Duty Will sell more than Battlefront this holidays.
Yes, but no way the PS4-SW bundle will sell the same than the CODAW:X1 one, its going to sell more.

Edit: Anyone knows how much CODAW sold on last gen?
 
Jul 7, 2015
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Seriously, you need to think before write.

Talking about bundles:
You are comparing a game released also on PS3/360 against a game that wont be released on those platforms?
You are comparing the WEAKEST game of a yearly declining franchise against a game fans have been expecting for years?
You are comparing a game without a movie against a game with the biggest movie this year?

Its Star Wars, in Holidays, CurrentGen exclusive, with a movie.



Yes, but no way the PS4-SW bundle will sell the same than the CODAW:X1 one, its going to sell more.
So, can You just Say what is your prediction? 400k? 500k? 1 Million? 10 billion?

You Are Welcome..... ;)

Yes... CoD will sell more than Battlefront.

But we are comparing bundles here, not game sales.

SW PS4 bundle is way bigger than Xbone AW bundle.

It is not even a fair comparison.
We will See dude, of course i may ne wrong with my 200k, just don't forget Star Wars Bundle will be Sold for 2 weeks, not for an intere month like CoD. :D
 

Sez

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SW is bigger than CoD, but not in the videogame industry.
Call of Duty Will sell more than Battlefront this holidays.
So, can You just Say what is your prediction? 400k? 500k? 1 Million? 10 billion?

You Are Welcome..... ;)



We will See dude, of course i may ne wrong with my 200k, just don't forget Star Wars Bundle will ne Sold for 2 weeks, not for an intere month like CoD. :D
10 billion is a little too high, considering Ants can't buy PS4's.

Well, last November PS4 did around 800k. This november must be better or it would be a failure (I expect higher than 1M). Considering there will be 2 appealing bundles (Cod and SW), ill say it will sell as mininum 400k.
 
Mar 19, 2013
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We will See dude, of course i may ne wrong with my 200k, just don't forget Star Wars Bundle will be Sold for 2 weeks, not for an intere month like CoD. :D
SW bundle is already being sold ;) that give them around 3 months.

To be fair I'm starting to think we won't get CoD Bundle this year because Sony will focus on Star Wars only... unless Activision really forces Sony to do that (very likely).
 
Jul 7, 2015
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10 billion is a little too high, considering Ants can't buy PS4.

Well, last November PS4 did around 800k. This november must be better or it would be a failure. Considering there will be 2 appealing bundles (Cod and SW), ill say it will sell as mininum 400k.
400k minimum? So, that's not what You predict, This is just The worst scenario You see... 450k / 500 k is what You probabily expect?
...oh well, if You Say so... I seriusly doubt but let's see...
 
Feb 4, 2014
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Nintendo next console better be a hit because Wii U is in a very bad position right now, that´s what you get from betting on the casuals, short term sales.

PlayStation and Xbox built a brand with online and core gamers and it pays.
I dont think Nintendo can win over the core gamers who buy PS and Xbox in the middle of this gen and also its not possible Nintendo to get 3rd party marketing deals which is the most important factor in winning them but not their first party library. I believe that their NX will also be a system for Nintendo fans mostly but they will stay profit still and 3rd party is not going to return completely especially after huge PS4 success. They have to try new gimmick like Wii for home console otherwise have to rely on their portable and Mobile market to survive.
 
May 23, 2013
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PS4 is receiving a price cut in Japan, so maybe $349 for US is coming.
Yeh good to see that price cut in Japan. Should help with adoption moving forward. Especially for the holiday season.

So as far as I'm aware we've seen official price drops in the UK and in Japan now. Someone let me know if I've missed official price drops anywhere else?

I know there have been a couple of official/unofficial price drops in Middle East and Asia but that was more adjustments than an actual price drop.

In the US it's still up in the air. Could happen. But I think Sony are managing it more by region at the moment. But we will eventually get a global price drop of sorts.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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PS4 is receiving a price cut in Japan, so maybe $349 for US is coming.
Yep, with the price drop in Japan, I now think it is very likely that a global price drop to $349 will be announced at PGW. That will really push the PS4 into the holidays with huge momentum.

Yeh good to see that price cut in Japan. Should help with adoption moving forward. Especially for the holiday season.

So as far as I'm aware we've seen official price drops in the UK and in Japan now. Someone let me know if I've missed official price drops anywhere else?

I know there have been a couple of official/unofficial price drops in Middle East and Asia but that was more adjustments than an actual price drop.

In the US it's still up in the air. Could happen. But I think Sony are managing it more by region at the moment. But we will eventually get a global price drop of sorts.
Does a price drop in Malaysia from RM 1800 to RM 1550 count? :p I expect it to drop again this holiday season.
Mostly because I'm getting one. :p
 
Jun 13, 2014
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Seriously, you need to think before write.

Talking about bundles:
You are comparing a game released also on PS3/360 against a game that wont be released on those platforms?
You are comparing the WEAKEST game of a yearly declining franchise against a game fans have been expecting for years?
You are comparing a game without a movie against a game with the biggest movie this year?

Its Star Wars, in Holidays, CurrentGen exclusive, with a movie.
If we're talking CoD vs BF this holiday, Treyarch is widely considered the leading studio in that rotation and the amount of people who continued to play Black Ops II solely on last gen consomes through Ghosts and even Advanced Warfare is insane. So this game has likewise been anticipated for years, with a big audience who has waited to upgrade for Treyarch's first new gen game. SWBF is building off of Battlefield and Star Wars, this may be the year that DICE finally tops Call of Duty.... but BO3 has a chance to be huge as well, at least to top AW like AW topped Ghosts in terms of sales. To me, this is the big holiday rivalry I'm keeping am eye on.

If we're comparing SWBF bundle to last year's Advanced Warfare bundle, I agree, there's no contest. Microsoft sold that package for $500 at a time when the console was going fo $350 with all kinds of crazy pack-ins and deals - there was no reason for anyone to buy that. The Star Wars deal offers a legitimate entry point, it all depends on how many they ship.
 
May 16, 2006
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If we're talking CoD vs BF this holiday, Treyarch is widely considered the leading studio in that rotation and the amount of people who continued to play Black Ops II solely on last gen consomes through Ghosts and even Advanced Warfare is insane. So this game has likewise been anticipated for years, with a big audience who has waited to upgrade for Treyarch's first new gen game. SWBF is building off of Battlefield and Star Wars, this may be the year that DICE finally tops Call of Duty.... but BO3 has a chance to be huge as well, at least to top AW like AW topped Ghosts in terms of sales. To me, this is the big holiday rivalry I'm keeping am eye on.

If we're comparing SWBF bundle to last year's Advanced Warfare bundle, I agree, there's no contest. Microsoft sold that package for $500 at a time when the console was going fo $350 with all kinds of crazy pack-ins and deals - there was no reason for anyone to buy that. The Star Wars deal offers a legitimate entry point, it all depends on how many they ship.
I really doubt that Battlefront has any chance of outsell Black Ops III. Not only BO III has more hype than Ghosts and AW (like you said), but Battlefront is MP only, what is a deal breaker for some people.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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What was the consensus on the importance of backwards compatibility again?

We're saying it won't help Xbox One and that Sony isn't doing it because they know it doesn't drive hardware sales and they're just rolling with PS Now instead?

Is that the general takeaway?
 

Sez

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If we're talking CoD vs BF this holiday,
I really doubt that Battlefront has any chance of outsell Black Ops III
He compared the Advanced Warfare Xbox One bundle against the SWBF PS4 one. AW is the weakest game on the franchise and it will remain because Blops 3 will easily outsell AW. And the talk was about BUNDLES only.


What was the consensus on the importance of backwards compatibility again?
BC will give a minimal boost. It has been discussed in several threads and occasions that BC:
1. It's more important when a brand new console comes out, because there are few games to play.
2. Outside gaming enthusiast, most people never go back to old games.
3. The Xbone BC won't be to all titles, but specific ones. You will have to check if the title is already compatible or it will be, it can create confusion, etc.
 
Feb 16, 2008
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What was the consensus on the importance of backwards compatibility again?

We're saying it won't help Xbox One and that Sony isn't doing it because they know it doesn't drive hardware sales and they're just rolling with PS Now instead?

Is that the general takeaway?
Why would there be a consensus? It's a message board. And does it really matter? Probably just as important as Koei support.
 
May 16, 2006
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And the talk was about BUNDLES only.
Doesn't sound like bundles only.

SWBF is building off of Battlefield and Star Wars, this may be the year that DICE finally tops Call of Duty.... but BO3 has a chance to be huge as well, at least to top AW like AW topped Ghosts in terms of sales. To me, this is the big holiday rivalry I'm keeping am eye on.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Stuff will be interesting.

BC will give a minimal boost. It has been discussed in several threads and occasions that BC:
1. It's more important when a brand new console comes out, because there are few games to play.
2. Outside gaming enthusiast, most people never go back to old games.
Thanks.

And does it really matter? Probably just as important as Koei support.
Just taking some notes... and sensiblechuckle.jpg

What, you're looking at research data that says the opposite?
No.

I think it's about as important as having a healthy indie/ downloadable library on the console... Now it isn't the most important things but it's just another feather in the cap.
Seems reasonable.

I'd say the market evidence makes it pretty clear that it's a minor feature in terms of driving demand overall... MS I believe added it because they're in the mode of "anything that helps" in terms of trying to close gap with PS4 and differentiate... As the market leader with strong focus on new games I don't see Sony rushing to add it.
Good take. Thanks.
 
Dec 12, 2013
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What was the consensus on the importance of backwards compatibility again?

We're saying it won't help Xbox One and that Sony isn't doing it because they know it doesn't drive hardware sales and they're just rolling with PS Now instead?

Is that the general takeaway?
What, you're looking at research data that says the opposite?
 
Dec 9, 2013
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What was the consensus on the importance of backwards compatibility again?

We're saying it won't help Xbox One and that Sony isn't doing it because they know it doesn't drive hardware sales and they're just rolling with PS Now instead?

Is that the general takeaway?
I disagree with others when It comes to this. If were a new owner I would very much look at it as a selling point. There are tons of games that I didn't play last gen that I would still like to play. I think it's about as important as having a healthy indie/ downloadable library on the console. It's just more options, and options that have been proven Ilin the past. Imo it's more of a selling point than a darth vader face on the side of a console

Now it isn't the most important things but it's just another feather in the cap.
 
Aug 5, 2011
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What was the consensus on the importance of backwards compatibility again?

We're saying it won't help Xbox One and that Sony isn't doing it because they know it doesn't drive hardware sales and they're just rolling with PS Now instead?

Is that the general takeaway?
On GAF? Was there a consensus?

Working in retail (the industry not one specific retailer) I'd say the market evidence makes it pretty clear that it's a minor feature in terms of driving demand overall.

It mostly appeals to a small core who replay their favorite old games and want to decommission their old console to switch fully to the new. In the grand scheme of things it's pretty clear that's a small demographic.

Most gamers (general market) clearly don't go back to old games that much and clearly prefer the shiny new versions with more bells and whistles.

Not that it's bad to have, and in fact over time it may become more expected again as a generation used to switching their phones/tablets really starts to become the purchasing norm, but right now it's hardly that important vs new games, new features, etc.

Nice to have but not worth diverting previous funds over.

MS I believe added it because they're in the mode of "anything that helps" in terms of trying to close gap with PS4 and differentiate.

As the market leader with strong focus on new games I don't see Sony rushing to add it (and I suspect it might be a tall order to emulate BC for the PS3 architecture anyway rendering BC on PS4 unlikely - for PS3 games that is).

They're clearly more interested is PS Now anyway for the moment as you note.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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I think Backwards Compat has some potential to sway some budget minded parents this holiday season. But only if they believe it's universal. Of course they would likely be incredibly upset once they found out all their games don't work but I just don't see a limited library swaying the crowds much.

On CoD and Star Wars, I honestly think these games are going to appeal to completely different markets. CoD is your core gaming market. The die hard FPS crowd who will undoubtedly buy the title in droves. Whereas Star Wars has a much broader appeal such that it has the potential to garner a lot of sales from the more casual/family demographics. While this market is decidedly larger than the more limited core gaming market it is also much more difficult to accurately predict. There is really no way of knowing how well Star Wars will resonate. If it does manage to penetrate that mass market mindshare it would potentially sell unbelievable amounts of software and hardware. Honestly I think a lot of its success will hinge on the success and response to the new film more than most anything else. This should be a really fun one to watch either way.

There's really a lot of exciting variables and potential game changers this holiday season. It makes things a lot more difficult predict and as a result should lead to a lot of attention and discussion. Both of which I find myself really looking forward to.

Edit: oh and just to clarify things vis a vis the PS4 price cut in Japan: due to the overinflated yen you can currently buy a PS4 for the equivalent of around $340. With the new price cut this drops to the equivalent of $300. It's fairly obvious that with the 5000¥ value I think it's solely the inflation is responsible for the end result price range and as a result if the price drop were to be done in U.S. it would be $50.00 and not a drop to the same price differential created by the currently extremely inflated Japanese currency. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an announcement of a $50 drop either at PGW or PSX if they want to maintain ARPU as long as possible while still boosting demand with a price drop this holiday season.
 
May 23, 2013
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Again, the power of youtube- http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/...ame_sales_alive_and_well_with_NecroDancer.php

Edit: oh and just to clarify things vis a vis the PS4 price cut in Japan: due to the overinflated yen you can currently buy a PS4 for the equivalent of around $340. With the new price cut this drops to the equivalent of $300. It's fairly obvious that with the 5000¥ value I think it's solely the inflation is responsible for the end result price range and as a result if the price drop were to be done in U.S. it would be $50.00 and not a drop to the same price differential created by the currently extremely inflated Japanese currency. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an announcement of a $50 drop either at PGW or PSX if they want to maintain ARPU as long as possible while still boosting demand with a price drop this holiday season.
I'm not sure PSX would be the best time to announce a price drop as it's after Black Friday and literally just before Christmas.

It'll either be PGW or Q1/2 2016
 
Sep 8, 2013
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I'm not sure PSX would be the best time to announce a price drop as it's after Black Friday and literally just before Christmas.

It'll either be PGW or Q1/2 2016
I could see PSX as being the absolute latest they would announce a drop this year but yes I agree that PGW seems far more likely. Especially since the just announced price cuts in JP and Asia taking effect in October.
 
Jul 14, 2015
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I think Backwards Compat has some potential to sway some budget minded parents this holiday season. But only if they believe it's universal. Of course they would likely be incredibly upset once they found out all their games don't work but I just don't see a limited library swaying the crowds much.

On CoD and Star Wars, I honestly think these games are going to appeal to completely different markets. CoD is your core gaming market. The die hard FPS crowd who will undoubtedly buy the title in droves. Whereas Star Wars has a much broader appeal such that it has the potential to garner a lot of sales from the more casual/family demographics. While this market is decidedly larger than the more limited core gaming market it is also much more difficult to accurately predict. There is really no way of knowing how well Star Wars will resonate. If it does manage to penetrate that mass market mindshare it would potentially sell unbelievable amounts of software and hardware. Honestly I think a lot of its success will hinge on the success and response to the new film more than most anything else. This should be a really fun one to watch either way.

There's really a lot of exciting variables and potential game changers this holiday season. It makes things a lot more difficult predict and as a result should lead to a lot of attention and discussion. Both of which I find myself really looking forward to.

Edit: oh and just to clarify things vis a vis the PS4 price cut in Japan: due to the overinflated yen you can currently buy a PS4 for the equivalent of around $340. With the new price cut this drops to the equivalent of $300. It's fairly obvious that with the 5000¥ value I think it's solely the inflation is responsible for the end result price range and as a result if the price drop were to be done in U.S. it would be $50.00 and not a drop to the same price differential created by the currently extremely inflated Japanese currency. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw an announcement of a $50 drop either at PGW or PSX if they want to maintain ARPU as long as possible while still boosting demand with a price drop this holiday season.
I can only see a possibility of BC working if they indeed have a good number over 100 games ready (and advertising it as mroe) and the selection is actually among the most popular games still relevant today. They would also have to keep sending out updates with more games being added on a consistent basis, otherwise it's just going to die like the 360 BC.

As for the price drop, anecdotal consensus seems to indicate that Halo is the only real thing Xbox One has for moving hardware ( and other games will ride on that) so having a price drop at PGW COULD effectively kill Halo's momentum. Which would be good for Sony because they would absorb all the gains and the word "crushing" would be considered putting it nicely.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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I can only see a possibility of BC working if they indeed have a good number over 100 games ready (and advertising it as mroe) and the selection is actually among the most popular games still relevant today. They would also have to keep sending out updates with more games being added on a consistent basis, otherwise it's just going to die like the 360 BC.

As for the price drop, anecdotal consensus seems to indicate that Halo is the only real thing Xbox One has for moving hardware ( and other games will ride on that) so having a price drop at PGW COULD effectively kill Halo's momentum. Which would be good for Sony because they would absorb all the gains and the word "crushing" would be considered putting it nicely.
Their implementation of BC is a very very obvious ploy to convert 360 gamers this holiday but I'm just not buying its significance with the current implementation. Like I stated before it seems far more likely to impact the purchase decisions of budget minded parents this holiday than it does the core 360 user base IMO. But it would definitely have the potential to come back and bite them if they don't have the support those people expect.

I'm really not sure that $50 price drop would generate that many more sales. It really seems like a half step to me. A full $100 would be the sweet spot IMO but all signs point to it being $50 if at all. I would imagine the Star Wars bundle has more selling potential than a $50 price cut but as I said previously that largely depends on the success of the movie so time will tell.