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Scrotum Phillips
Member
Hah, I know this isn't saying anything surprising or new, but it's crazy that a WEEKLY Japanese sales figure thread has 1,350+ replies and the MONTHLY USA sales thread has 400ish replies on NeoGaf.
Also nuts that I know the exact number of Vita's and Switches sold and also what the #50 selling game of the week sold down to the exact unit in Japan, but in the USA this info is off limits.
Instead, we rely on cryptic tweets and ridiculously impressive mathematical computations from extrapolating from vaguely worded corporate speak. Or sometimes, nothing.
I've never been a "console warrior," but I've always found sales figures fascinating and it's so odd how they're treated in the USA. It's also even more strange when weekly Movie box offices are something that are so readily available as well. I just don't get it, I guess.
Also nuts that I know the exact number of Vita's and Switches sold and also what the #50 selling game of the week sold down to the exact unit in Japan, but in the USA this info is off limits.
Instead, we rely on cryptic tweets and ridiculously impressive mathematical computations from extrapolating from vaguely worded corporate speak. Or sometimes, nothing.
I've never been a "console warrior," but I've always found sales figures fascinating and it's so odd how they're treated in the USA. It's also even more strange when weekly Movie box offices are something that are so readily available as well. I just don't get it, I guess.
Primethius
Banned
NPD monopoly doin' work.
LordRaptor
Member
The less hard data there is, the more difficult to have an actual conversation about it.
Also the MC in MC / Famitsu now stands for Monhun & Capcom
FinaruDensetsu
Member
I don't understand why no one in Japan has decided to monetize this information yet.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
Well to be fair the Japanese sell threads should just be callthe the switch sales thread. Cuz lord don't be optimistic about anything else.
I like npd things can shake up drastically, it may not last but it's always fun looking to see who takes it for the month, how much etc
I like npd things can shake up drastically, it may not last but it's always fun looking to see who takes it for the month, how much etc
OrbitalBeard
Member
I mean, if you'd like to talk about Capcom and Monster Hunter in NPD threads for a couple dozen pages, let's do it.
get2sammyb
Member
That's just a stealth weekly Monster Hunter thread, though.
We'll have Capcom discussion in one of these threads soon enough when the MvCI tirefire gets 'numbers' in NA NPD. We've already hit PAL. Tomorrow is Japan, and I am wondering if it won't open sub-20k on launch.
Yeah these threads are a shadow of what they once were. I'm not sure what the reasoning was but they stopped releasing numbers aside from cherry picked info here and there and PR releases. Not very exciting when you have nothing to compare it against.
Primethius
Banned
<5k lets go.
Boy, do I hear you.
I guess it's just something I've gotten used to but yeah, it's no good.
Liabe Brave
Member
Oh good gosh. This is purely my idiocy, copying over a bad formula result without noticing it made no sense. I've corrected it now, thanks for the note.
I heartily disagree. Wii is the only non-Sony home console to break 100m. That's not an achievement I'd take lightly.
Jack The Nipper
Banned
Interesting how dead these threads have gotten, exactly what companies wanted imo
Well, that's perfect. Unless you're a massive Xbox fan (and there aren't many left besides Statham), I don't think any of us have anything to complain about. The industry seems to be growing again.
Let's hope Microsoft does somehow get back on form again in the next year or two and then we can see some really healthy growth again, although of course they will likely directly eat in to Sony's sales.
The horror.
I could see that but that's just a matter of tracking and not an actual new playerbase.
OrbitalBeard
Member
It's going to be brutal in NA. I responded to this post in another thread yesterday:
With this:
Like I said above, Amazon isn't the best indicator of sales performance, but I really don't see MvC doing well at all in the September NPD. Of course, I could be wrong.
Primethius
Banned
I'm honestly not sure how the series has typically done in Japan.
But my natural assumption would be that it won't open more than UK numbers (it's doesn't even have Japanese voices, does it?).
And if UK was a <5k (possible far less) opening, I'm not seeing JP be much higher.
ethomaz
Banned
It is the same like MC threads lol
Different generation, different markets, different potential, etc.
Wii was a monster in terms of initial sales but it slowed too much already in the 4th year... so while it is the fastest selling console at the end the PS3 near reached the same sales (100m vs 90m?).
So yes for Wii level of sales what it has in 2010 was already a dead sentence... at end of March 2010 it had already sold more than 70 million but it need more 3 years to reach 100m.
From Nov 2006 to Mar 2010: 70m
From Apr 2010 to Mar 2013: 30m
And if you guys wants to compared with PS4 (ignoring the differences between gens) it is obvious Wii crushed PS4 in the first 3 years but it will probably ending selling less lifetime because nobody expect PS4 to die after the 4th year like Wii did.
PS4 will probably start to catch Wii launch aligned soon... not just catch but put a big lead over it.
Different generation, different markets, different potential, etc.
Wii was a monster in terms of initial sales but it slowed too much already in the 4th year... so while it is the fastest selling console at the end the PS3 near reached the same sales (100m vs 90m?).
So yes for Wii level of sales what it has in 2010 was already a dead sentence... at end of March 2010 it had already sold more than 70 million but it need more 3 years to reach 100m.
From Nov 2006 to Mar 2010: 70m
From Apr 2010 to Mar 2013: 30m
And if you guys wants to compared with PS4 (ignoring the differences between gens) it is obvious Wii crushed PS4 in the first 3 years but it will probably ending selling less lifetime because nobody expect PS4 to die after the 4th year like Wii did.
PS4 will probably start to catch Wii launch aligned soon... not just catch but put a big lead over it.
Never thought about it in this context, but that just seems far to low. I still think *it should* be around 20k, because less than 20k is going to mean it potentially gets outsold by USFII in Japan as well.
Then again, Okami just posted this:
Ōkami;250129593 said:
Oof.
For Amazon, its launch/launch time, the title didn't even make it to the top 10 and then crashed immediately after. Nothing looks good for this release sales wise.
Welfare
Member
I'm thinking Infinite can do maybe ~150K in the September NPD. This is including digital. I will also say that I would not be shocked if it does lower than this. Very possible it does <100K as there are only 2 weeks of tracking.
No way in hell it sell 2M worldwide though. Maybe not even 1M when all is said and done.
No way in hell it sell 2M worldwide though. Maybe not even 1M when all is said and done.
hanspampel
Banned
so what is Capcom doing wrong?
nearly all their titles underperform
the genre does not matter and the platforms also does not matter
XB1 / PC exclusive Dead Rising 4
Ps4 / PC exclusive Street Fighter 5
all platform Marvel vs Capcom: Infinity
nearly all their titles underperform
the genre does not matter and the platforms also does not matter
XB1 / PC exclusive Dead Rising 4
Ps4 / PC exclusive Street Fighter 5
all platform Marvel vs Capcom: Infinity
SinCityAssassin
Member
I'm gonna do the outrageous bet.
Samus Returns will sell more than MvC:I
Samus Returns will sell more than MvC:I
theprodigy
Member
This is a mild take.
Primethius
Banned
Each game has several different aspects that Capcom messes up.
With SFV and MvC:I, the two biggest have to be the sheer appeal to a small core base at the expense of everyone else.
Edit: I'm betting MvC:I opens to less than 50k in NPD.
The 'mid-gen' upgrade is a continuation of the general approach by Sony/Microsoft/western publishers over the last what, 5 years? Focus on increasing the money the core will pay you rather than appealing to new markets. Get someone who already has your console to pay you another $400-500 for an upgrade. Get someone who's already paid $60 on your game to spend another $100 on digital items in the game.
Great for the bottom line (if they can sustain it which is always the problem with this strategy), but depressing as a consumer that doesn't like the feeling of being squeezed.
NoMoreTrolls
Banned
I don't really see the comparison of a mid gen upgrade to DLC items. Care to explain that?
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
I also think their marketing has been terrible all gen with monster hunter world being the only one that has good trailers and such
SinCityAssassin
Member
How about Xenoverse 2.
LordRaptor
Member
The brutal answer is that they're playing in the big leagues and are not ready to be in the big leagues - they cut corners to try and compete with AAA publishers that aren't cutting those corners, and massively outspending them on development budgets, and when a title underperforms they then have to cut further corners on titles currently in development to offset falling short on their original forecasts, and the cycle repeats.
They don't have any mobile successes or evergreen franchises to cushion any under performance elsewhere.
Primethius
Banned
MvC:I marketing in particular was... non-existent.
Blackleg-sanji1
Banned
And if the idea was to sell you with the trailers....ugh. And this coming from someone who's loving the game
Welfare
Member
Dead Rising 3 did well. 4 probably suffered from franchise fatigue, hardcore fan base shitting on it pre release, and it not having that much marketing and exposure like 3 did by being a launch title.
Street Fighter was too early and feature lacking. Casuals don't care if your game is EVO ready. It should've been delayed.
Infinite is suffering from pretty terrible pre launch exposure and a completely dull roster. No X-Men and Fantastic 4 hurt the game.
Narpas Sword0
Member
NPD was never "releasing numbers." NPD is a business that makes money by spending money to compile this sales data and then sell it to other companies. People were leaking their information. Which was fun, but come on.
KawabataSan
Member
They released hardware and software numbers publicly prior to 2011.
But then they stopped.
All of them are not well thought games. DR 3 was a mediocre launch game with frame rate issues , SF 5 was an early access game full of bugs sold for 60 bucks and MVC is just a low budget game ( they didn't even bother with a marketing campaign).
hanspampel
Banned
oh yeah sure. i meant Dead Rising 4 for sure.
I think Dead Rising 3 was the outliner selling decent just because of being a launch game
Wii had a natural 6 year console cycle. Over 7m sold in the US in 2010 is not dead and I'm surprised to see you doubling down so hard on your obvious mistake. Launch alinged Wii was over 11m ahead of where PS4 sits today in the US. PS4 isn't lagging as much globally and will make up the difference eventually but it will likely never catch Wii in the US.
One of Capcom's major problems is their lack of any semblance of good PR. From MH to SF to MvCI, they lack any semblance of sense for the tone of the conversation.
They went radio silent on SF and tossed Capcom NA PR under the bus.
They did not PR with pros and free copies of MvCI. They had no response to the models, and their XMen PR was a dumpster fire. The DLC for MvCI is toxic greed and blatant.
Even when they have good buzz going with MHW they take a piss on part of their audience with responses to XX. thanks
They went radio silent on SF and tossed Capcom NA PR under the bus.
They did not PR with pros and free copies of MvCI. They had no response to the models, and their XMen PR was a dumpster fire. The DLC for MvCI is toxic greed and blatant.
Even when they have good buzz going with MHW they take a piss on part of their audience with responses to XX. thanks
In both instances you're positioning a product at your already existing fanbase and trying to get them to spend more money in your ecosystem. As Mat was saying, it's likely that the audience that cares about the increased power of the XB1X and PS4 Pro overlaps heavily with the audience that jumps in early in a console generation. So you're not necessarily trying to get brand new consumers (although obviously there will be new consumers with any product, I'm speaking generally), but getting your existing consumers to spend another $500.
Similarly with DLC, publishers are putting resources towards extracting more money from the existing userbase rather than trying to broaden the userbase. Activision probably spends the equivalent of several AA game budgets on post game support for Destiny.
Square2015
Member
Next-gen graph update:
click to enlarge
Thanks to Liabe Brave for the recent figures.
click to enlarge
Thanks to Liabe Brave for the recent figures.
NintendosBooger
Member
From the outside looking in, I think Capcom's a typical father/son organization enmeshed in nepotism and cronyism. Old man Kenzo doesn't even give a shit about games any more, too busy cultivating vineyards and shit. The organization's in desperate need of new leadership but that isn't happening any time soon.
Seems baffling, and even for most people I would imagine spending is a factor among others worth covering rather than the primary figure. Almost reminds me of Microsoft no longer releasing HW numbers because 'MAU is more important'.
Jaded Alyx
Member
I'm not surprised at all.
For @Mat,
(I'll try to space the paragraphs out so it's easier to respond if you're able.)
I'm unfamiliar with how deep the analytics world goes but I've always been curious about something: is NPD (or any other entity) able to track or build profiles for consumers who purchase gaming related products at retail?
For example, is it possible to calculate the gender ratio of consumers who purchase a Switch (or Xbox or PS4)? How about age range, socio-economic background, or even purchasing history or habits?
To dive deeper, for consumers who purchase a console, is it possible to determine whether they are purchasing their first console this generation, whether they are purchasing a second (or later) console from a competing manufacturer (for those consumers who like to own multiple systems), or whether they are purchasing a second (or later) console that they already own (upgraders/replacers)? (I'm reminded of the Xbox 360 RROD and how many of the total unit sales were existing owners simply replacing their broken consoles.)
What I'm trying to get at is that at a basic level, you know the total unit sales for PS4 for the August reporting period. I assume you also know the breakdown of SKUs but beyond that, who are the people buying each SKU specifically? Are people who purchase the PS4 Pro completely new customers? How many owned an OG PS4 and are upgrading? If they are completely new customers, how many also have an Xbox? Or Switch? In other words, to what degree may the consumer already be invested in gaming when they make their console purchase? Just some things I've been wondering.
Outside of consumer profiles, there were two general queries I've been meaning to ask about.
a) Sales correlations between software -- for consumers who purchase Persona 5 for example, is it possible to identify the top software these consumers may also purchase? I imagine retailers understand this within their own companies (particularly Amazon who shows a "customers who bought this item also bought" section) but does NPD have access to this data as well to understand this at a high level across retail chains?
b) Attribution for software that sells hardware -- when new consoles are sold, is it possible to identify specific software that may have helped the consumer decide to purchase a console? On Neogaf, there's a tendency to focus on the big, blockbuster games as "system sellers" and forget about everything else but I wonder if it's both much more nuanced as well as complex than that. For example, I have a friend who purchased a PS4 in November 2016 for a game called Berserk and the Band of the Hawk which released a few months later in February 2017. That was the game that made her decide to purchase a PS4, not any of the big games that came out in the holiday season. Likewise, I bought a PS4 in Summer 2014 after seeing a Kingdom Hearts 3 trailer but it wasn't available yet so I settled on Grand Theft Auto V (and KH3 still doesn't have a release date). This may very well be impossible to track but I'd be curious to know if there was ever a way to attribute the sale of a new console with specific software (when applicable).
(I'll try to space the paragraphs out so it's easier to respond if you're able.)
I'm unfamiliar with how deep the analytics world goes but I've always been curious about something: is NPD (or any other entity) able to track or build profiles for consumers who purchase gaming related products at retail?
For example, is it possible to calculate the gender ratio of consumers who purchase a Switch (or Xbox or PS4)? How about age range, socio-economic background, or even purchasing history or habits?
To dive deeper, for consumers who purchase a console, is it possible to determine whether they are purchasing their first console this generation, whether they are purchasing a second (or later) console from a competing manufacturer (for those consumers who like to own multiple systems), or whether they are purchasing a second (or later) console that they already own (upgraders/replacers)? (I'm reminded of the Xbox 360 RROD and how many of the total unit sales were existing owners simply replacing their broken consoles.)
What I'm trying to get at is that at a basic level, you know the total unit sales for PS4 for the August reporting period. I assume you also know the breakdown of SKUs but beyond that, who are the people buying each SKU specifically? Are people who purchase the PS4 Pro completely new customers? How many owned an OG PS4 and are upgrading? If they are completely new customers, how many also have an Xbox? Or Switch? In other words, to what degree may the consumer already be invested in gaming when they make their console purchase? Just some things I've been wondering.
Outside of consumer profiles, there were two general queries I've been meaning to ask about.
a) Sales correlations between software -- for consumers who purchase Persona 5 for example, is it possible to identify the top software these consumers may also purchase? I imagine retailers understand this within their own companies (particularly Amazon who shows a "customers who bought this item also bought" section) but does NPD have access to this data as well to understand this at a high level across retail chains?
b) Attribution for software that sells hardware -- when new consoles are sold, is it possible to identify specific software that may have helped the consumer decide to purchase a console? On Neogaf, there's a tendency to focus on the big, blockbuster games as "system sellers" and forget about everything else but I wonder if it's both much more nuanced as well as complex than that. For example, I have a friend who purchased a PS4 in November 2016 for a game called Berserk and the Band of the Hawk which released a few months later in February 2017. That was the game that made her decide to purchase a PS4, not any of the big games that came out in the holiday season. Likewise, I bought a PS4 in Summer 2014 after seeing a Kingdom Hearts 3 trailer but it wasn't available yet so I settled on Grand Theft Auto V (and KH3 still doesn't have a release date). This may very well be impossible to track but I'd be curious to know if there was ever a way to attribute the sale of a new console with specific software (when applicable).
Wii and Switch aren't really appealing to the same markets, I think. I mean I'm sure there's an overlap, but Wii deliberately targeted non-gamers, while the switch seems much more focused on retro-gamers, and people who like indie-style or old-school types of games. The big titles for Switch are all "core" but widely appealing games like BotW, Mario Kart, and Splatoon, while the more Wii-style 1-2 Switch is already an afterthought.
My guess would be Samus Returns and Xenobade 2 will be close in NA sales, with Samus Returns doing slightly better by the end of the year since it's a more "giftable" game for the holidays. Xenoblade will win WW though, and both will easily beat MvC:I.
MatPiscatella
Member
Legend's point is that it's easier to milk the cows you already have than to go get more cows. It's true. But, at some point, cows are outta milk. Apparently we're not there yet.
Agreed. Switch, as of right now, is a Core console. Now, the trick is can it cross the bridge and get to the mass market, those non-core consumers that made the Wii such a hit. That's yet to be proven, but I have some confidence that Mario and then a Pokemon RPG can get there.
But yeah, those comparing the Switch and the Wii right now are missing the mark a bit imo.
There are a couple ways to go about this, but we're talking sample data rather than census like the POS data is.
So you can survey a representative sample that you could then extrapolate to total market. This is better for more macro (demographic) than micro (purchase habits) questions, and, while completely acceptable and valid, probably won't get to the level of detail you're asking about unless the sample is very large.
You can also do things like receipt scanning, where people will allow you access to their email receipts which is also sample, and is better for trying to gauge online purchasing more than all purchasing.
And sure someone like Amazon has your full purchase history on the site, but they can't see what someone is buying from other retailers, so that's also an incomplete look.
So there are ways to get to a snapshot of consumer types. But it carries with it some range of error just due to the difference between sample and census.
Well, there is a difference here between the action of purchasing and the motivation. Clearly, when a retailer looks at a receipt and sees a consumer buy a PS4 with a copy of Knack 2, then the action can be clearly identified by that retailer.
However, to get to motivation, or why a consumer bought a console, again you'd have to go back to either survey or interview or some other primary research sample methodology.
In the data I look at, I look for correlations... did console sales get a big bump? Did a particular title also have a huge month? Was there price discounting or promotion or increased distribution that could explain the bump in console sales? How were the game and console marketed together, if at all... that kind of stuff.
This is another area where there is a range of error involved and some art has to go with the science.
If companies could really identify true motivators and define return potential, well, you'd be hit over the head so hard with it that you wouldn't need to ask the question lol.
Great questions!!!! Hopefully I covered what you wanted me to. If not, please let me know.
Agreed. Switch, as of right now, is a Core console. Now, the trick is can it cross the bridge and get to the mass market, those non-core consumers that made the Wii such a hit. That's yet to be proven, but I have some confidence that Mario and then a Pokemon RPG can get there.
But yeah, those comparing the Switch and the Wii right now are missing the mark a bit imo.
There are a couple ways to go about this, but we're talking sample data rather than census like the POS data is.
So you can survey a representative sample that you could then extrapolate to total market. This is better for more macro (demographic) than micro (purchase habits) questions, and, while completely acceptable and valid, probably won't get to the level of detail you're asking about unless the sample is very large.
You can also do things like receipt scanning, where people will allow you access to their email receipts which is also sample, and is better for trying to gauge online purchasing more than all purchasing.
And sure someone like Amazon has your full purchase history on the site, but they can't see what someone is buying from other retailers, so that's also an incomplete look.
So there are ways to get to a snapshot of consumer types. But it carries with it some range of error just due to the difference between sample and census.
Well, there is a difference here between the action of purchasing and the motivation. Clearly, when a retailer looks at a receipt and sees a consumer buy a PS4 with a copy of Knack 2, then the action can be clearly identified by that retailer.
However, to get to motivation, or why a consumer bought a console, again you'd have to go back to either survey or interview or some other primary research sample methodology.
In the data I look at, I look for correlations... did console sales get a big bump? Did a particular title also have a huge month? Was there price discounting or promotion or increased distribution that could explain the bump in console sales? How were the game and console marketed together, if at all... that kind of stuff.
This is another area where there is a range of error involved and some art has to go with the science.
If companies could really identify true motivators and define return potential, well, you'd be hit over the head so hard with it that you wouldn't need to ask the question lol.
Great questions!!!! Hopefully I covered what you wanted me to. If not, please let me know.