NPD Sales Results for December 2013 [Up2: Xbox One/360 HW, 3DS top system of year]

Aug 2, 2008
15,476
0
0
I'm sure this has already been mentioned, but the PS3 sales are simply not good at all. It seems that people are moving away from it much sooner than I would have expected. That along with GT6's sales makes it apparent that the PS3 won't see the type of longevity the PS2 had.

In fact, it seems just about every 1st/2nd party game has severely underperformed outside of TLoU and Beyond.
The ps2's longevity didn't come from the US.
 
Oct 19, 2006
1,160
0
0
California
Dead Rising 3 - 526K
Forze Motorsport 5 - 457K
Ryse - 431K


Fucking so good to hear these are doing ok in their sales. I own all 3,theyre worth playing daily. Loving that Ryse is near half a mil. That game saw so many trolls and haters try and kill it before it was even born at retail. Facepalm and a plate of crow to every troller who pulled off their usual driveby horse shit towards this game....the sales proove we'll most likely see a sequel to this one. Very happy for that.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
This gen has gone on for two years longer than the PS2's so I think that may be a reason why.
That and the PS2 was the undisputed victor, so it was highly unlikely the PS3 was ever gonna have those cross generation legs. It'd be basically be like combining the PS3 and 360's sales together and removing a much smaller proportion for competitors.
 
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
That and the PS2 was the undisputed victor, so it was highly unlikely the PS3 was ever gonna have those cross generation legs. It'd be basically be like combining the PS3 and 360's sales together and removing a much smaller proportion for competitors.
Not to mention that PS2 was $129. Both X360 and PS3 are insanely priced considering their age.
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,238
66
655
Hardware summary:
3DS - Best we have right now is ~1.1M
XB1 - 908K
PS4 ~865K
360 - 643K
WIU - 481K
PS3 - 299K
WII ~150K
PSV <95K

Tie ratios/total software:
PS4 retail - 4.2M units - tie ratio 2.10
XB1 retail - 4.8M units - tie ratio 2.64
XB1 retail + digital - tie ratio 2.9 - 5.3M units

Software summary: *Should be LTD unless otherwise specified.
Wii
Just Dance 2014 >800K *Not sure if this is December only or LTD.

Wii U
Super Mario 3D World >570K
Lego City Undercover - 242K
Pikmin 3 - 210K
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate - 93K
Rayman Legends - 88K
Sonic: Lost World - 82K
The Wonderful 101 - 49K
Game & Wario - 36K
Resident Evil: Revelations - 16K

3DS
Pokemon X - 1.63M
Pokemon Y - 1.54M
Luigi's Mansion 2: Dark Moon >1M
Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 910K
The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds > Super Mario 3D World > 570K
Mario & Luigi: Dream Team - 472K
Donkey Kong Country Returns 3DS - 386K
Fire Emblem: Awakening - 370K
LEGO City 3DS - 365K
Mario Party: Island Tour - 252k
Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate - 224K
Sonic Lost Worlds 3DS - 97k
Shin Megami Tensei IV - 96K
Project X Zone - 87K
Rune Factory 4 - 47k
Shin Megami Tensei: Devil Summoner: Soul Hackers - 36K
Etrian Odyssey 4 - 36K
Brain Age - 26K

PS3
The Last of Us - 1473K
Call of Duty: Ghosts < Just Dance 2014 Wii <800K *Not sure if this is December only or LTD.
God of War: Ascension - 783K
Kingdom Hearts 1.5HD - 438K
Ni no Kuni: Wrath of the White Witch - 329K
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time - 208K
Beyond: Two Souls - 202K
Gran Turismo 6 <180K
Tales of Xillia - 156K
Resident Evil: Revelations - 53K
Rayman Legends - 30K
Hatsune Miku: Project Diva F - 16K

PS4
Call of Duty: Ghosts >800K
Battlefield 4 - between 550K and 600K
Assassin's Creed 4 - between 500K and 550K
NBA 2K14 - between 400K and 450K
Killzone Shadowfall - between 400K and 450K
Madden NFL 25 - between 350K and 400K
Need for Speed - between 250K and 300K
FIFA 14 - between 200K and 250K
Knack - between 150K and 200K
Lego Marvel Superheroes - between

PSV
Killzone: Mercenaries - 102K
Soul Sacrifice - 72K
Sly Cooper: Thieves in Time - 67k
Tearaway -50K
Rayman Legends - 20k

Xbox 360
Minecraft - 1862K
Gears of War: Judgement - 764K
Resident Evil: Revelations - 55K
Rayman Legends - 42K

Xbox One
Call of Duty: Ghosts - between 800K and 900K
Battlefield 4 - between 550K and 650K
Dead Rising 3 - 526K
Forze Motorsport 5 - 457K
Ryse - 431K
Madden NFL 25 - between 350K and 400K
Assassin's Creed 4 - between 350K and 400K
NBA 2K14 - between 200K and 350K
FIFA 14 - between 150K and 200K
Need for Speed - between 100K and 150K
Lego Marvel Superheroes - between 100K and 150K
Just Dance 2014 - between 100K and 150K

Let me know if I've missed anything or anything is wrong and I'll correct.
You can imply things about Lego Marvel Superheroes on other platforms from the XB1 number.
 
Sep 17, 2013
197
0
0
"Not great"? The Xbox One did very well this quarter. Selling 908-909K two months in a row at launch month is a feat that should be applauded, not criticized.

Both Wii U and Xbox One were not supply-constrained at launch. And yet, while Wii U only managed 463K in its first December, the Xbox One stayed just as strong as November with 908K.

Those are encouraging, healthy signs for future USA sales.

Don't downplay the Xbox One's successes just because the PS4 is outperforming it.
I understand where you're coming from, but wasn't the consensus that both Sony and MS would sell out of the stock they would provide during the holiday launch period? I cannot say with certainty, but with the amount of stock MS flooded certain regions, you can easily come to the conclusion that MS probably shipped over 1 million consoles.

Again the numbers for MS are good, but I think in relation to the amount of stock, they might of been looking at a bigger number... I'm not the expert tho, so it's just my opinion.

For years any company that would use shipped numbers would get rightfully skewered, but for once I wouldn't mind seeing what MS shipped in Dec., just to see how they actually expected to perform, since both manufactures were expected to sell out.
 
I'd imagine Xbox One will overtake PS4 in January in NA since you can't seem to buy a PS4 anywhere at the moment or for the foreseeable future.
Like I said before, it'll be tit for tat, back and forth between the two for a good chunk of the year. I can see it going like this:

January: XBO (simply b/c of having the supply, but I'm thinking it'll do below 600,000 even with that supply).

February: PS4 (even w/ Japan launch, I just don't see XBO demand helping it sustain near 600,000. Probably closer to 450,000. PS4 will have enough supply to beat that in the States).

March: XBO (TitanFall should help give them a boost).

April: PS4 (TitanFall will do quick big sales but drop like a rock after a couple of weeks, maybe have a slow burner effect. Sony's big games tend to have some legs so if DriveClub and Second Son are out by now they will help push systems).

May: PS4 (Don't think either system has big releases that month; PS4 launch demand will have totally subsided by this point).

June: PS4 (I think E3 will have a few megabombs, and something's telling me there'll be something very worth the wait for PS4 revealed there. Also PS Now will be going full scale, that should help).

July: XBO (MS might try a split SKU model around this time; casuals don't tend to buy console during the "slow" summer months and I think by this point PS4 will be more appealing to core/hardcore gamers still holding out for stuff aside from TitanFall)

August:
PS4 (Especially if The Order comes out around this time)

September: PS4 (If Quantum Break comes out during this month, I can see XBO taking September)

October: PS4

November: PS4 (I think Sony will probably do a price cut on PS4 around this time to coincide with the holidays and take back the price advantage instead of being at price parity w/ MS. MS won't be inclined to do a price drop b/c they would have already done one back in July w/ the split SKU w/o Kinect; XBO should still do pretty close thanks to Halo 5).

December: XBO (Just an eerie redux of 2013; PS4 sales in November would likely cut down on December supply due to the price drop especially if it's done in the first half of the month, leaving less supply of them vs. XBO. That should benefit the XBO).

I still see the PS4 winning NA for 2014 when all's said and done, but it's not going to be the landslide some think it could (or should) be.

I could be 100% wrong of course, but sorta doubt that ;)
 
Jun 2, 2013
2,810
0
0
USA
Dead Rising 3 - 526K
Forze Motorsport 5 - 457K
Ryse - 431K


Fucking so good to hear these are doing ok in their sales. I own all 3,theyre worth playing daily. Loving that Ryse is near half a mil. That game saw so many trolls and haters try and kill it before it was even born at retail. Facepalm and a plate of crow to every troller who pulled off their usual driveby horse shit towards this game....the sales proove we'll most likely see a sequel to this one. Very happy for that.
The reviews killed its chance for a sequel. The only reason I think this sold so well is because of the marketing. I doubt the game will have legs.
 
Jun 7, 2004
63,747
2
0
You might want to lower expectations if you expect either console to do 600K in January. Probably want to drop that number in half, if not a little more for XB1. PS4 is tougher to figure out right now, completely dependent on supply but I'm going to guess around 300K.
 
Feb 18, 2012
10,875
0
0
delusibeta.tumblr.com
I bought a Vita yesterday for 75 dollars. I really hope I didn't buy a system that's about to be discontinued.
The odds of the Vita getting discontinued are low, far too much Japanese stuff in the pipeline for Sony to pull the plug, not to mention them wrangling a port out of pretty much all of the forthcoming indie games worth their salt. It's also being doing OK in Japan recently in terms of sales (hence the glut of Japanese stuff in said pipeline). The odds of Sony never producing another first party exclusive for the system? Now that's something I'd happily bet on.
 
Jun 2, 2013
2,810
0
0
USA
Like I said before, it'll be tit for tat, back and forth between the two for a good chunk of the year. I can see it going like this:

January: XBO (simply b/c of having the supply, but I'm thinking it'll do below 600,000 even with that supply).

February: PS4 (even w/ Japan launch, I just don't see XBO demand helping it sustain near 600,000. Probably closer to 450,000. PS4 will have enough supply to beat that in the States).

March: XBO (TitanFall should help give them a boost).

April: PS4 (TitanFall will do quick big sales but drop like a rock after a couple of weeks, maybe have a slow burner effect. Sony's big games tend to have some legs so if DriveClub and Second Son are out by now they will help push systems).

May: PS4 (Don't think either system has big releases that month; PS4 launch demand will have totally subsided by this point).

June: PS4 (I think E3 will have a few megabombs, and something's telling me there'll be something very worth the wait for PS4 revealed there. Also PS Now will be going full scale, that should help).

July: XBO (MS might try a split SKU model around this time; casuals don't tend to buy console during the "slow" summer months and I think by this point PS4 will be more appealing to core/hardcore gamers still holding out for stuff aside from TitanFall)

August:
PS4 (Especially if The Order comes out around this time)

September: PS4 (If Quantum Break comes out during this month, I can see XBO taking September)

October: PS4

November: PS4 (I think Sony will probably do a price cut on PS4 around this time to coincide with the holidays and take back the price advantage instead of being at price parity w/ MS. MS won't be inclined to do a price drop b/c they would have already done one back in July w/ the split SKU w/o Kinect; XBO should still do pretty close thanks to Halo 5).

December: XBO (Just an eerie redux of 2013; PS4 sales in November would likely cut down on December supply due to the price drop especially if it's done in the first half of the month, leaving less supply of them vs. XBO. That should benefit the XBO).

I still see the PS4 winning NA for 2014 when all's said and done, but it's not going to be the landslide some think it could (or should) be.

I could be 100% wrong of course, but sorta doubt that ;)
January - You sure about that? XBO barely beat the PS4 in December and that was the holidays. Remember PS4 had supply issues in December too and that didn't seem to stop it from selling ~860k.

February - I think this one depends on who wins January and by how much.

March - XBO is a safe bet but inFamous has a decent fanbase. Also, Metal Gear is releasing this month, most fans will be on Playstation.

April - October is impossible to predict at the moment. At this point its just wild guesses.

November - I think you're underestimating Halo 5! Again, no way to tell who can win this one this far in advance.

December - Doesn't make sense. If PS4 could beat XBO on Halo 5 release month, it would easily be able to take December as well.
 

Principate

Saint Titanfall
Dec 17, 2011
16,592
0
570
The odds of the Vita getting discontinued are low, far too much Japanese stuff in the pipeline for Sony to pull the plug, not to mention them wrangling a port out of pretty much all of the forthcoming indie games worth their salt. It's also being doing OK in Japan recently in terms of sales (hence the glut of Japanese stuff in said pipeline). The odds of Sony never producing another first party exclusive for the system? Now that's something I'd happily bet on.
I believe Vita's biggest issue is being removed from the shelves of some major retailers in America because at 450k YTD and crappy retail sales, the Vita simply isn't worth their time.

I wonder what YTD's the PSP GO received in NPD's.
 
Jun 7, 2004
63,747
2
0
Not to mention that PS2 was $129. Both X360 and PS3 are insanely priced considering their age.
Isn't the real PS3 still $269? 7 years in and the price point still isn't under 200, crazy. Yeah I know there is the 12GB 199 PS3 but that system is trash. Who wants a console with only 12GB of storage? It did absolutely nothing to boost PS3 hardware sales.

At this point I'm thinking Sony will just accept what they get at $269, and are more concerned about boosting the PS4 user base. In an odd way a $269 PS3 makes the PS4 look much more valuable.

I still can't believe how poorly GT6 sold. Polyphony has to be freaking out right now, though the wound is self inflicted. Need to get a PS4 version out pronto.
 
Dec 20, 2006
20,191
0
0
Isn't the real PS3 still $269? 7 years in and the price point still isn't under 200, crazy. Yeah I know there is the 12GB 199 PS3 but that system is trash. Who wants a console with only 12GB of storage? It did absolutely nothing to boost PS3 hardware sales.

At this point I'm thinking Sony will just accept what they get at $269, and are more concerned about boosting the PS4 user base. In an odd way a $269 PS3 makes the PS4 look much more valuable.

I still can't believe how poorly GT6 sold. Polyphony has to be freaking out right now, though the wound is self inflicted. Need to get a PS4 version out pronto.
How well does GT usually sell in the US? It's more popular in Europe isn't it? And the install base of PS3's is much smaller in the US as well. Does one month of NPD numbers really tell us anything at this point about GT6 success?
 
Aug 24, 2011
6,928
0
500
Finland
Isn't the real PS3 still $269? 7 years in and the price point still isn't under 200, crazy. Yeah I know there is the 12GB 199 PS3 but that system is trash. Who wants a console with only 12GB of storage? It did absolutely nothing to boost PS3 hardware sales.

At this point I'm thinking Sony will just accept what they get at $269, and are more concerned about boosting the PS4 user base. In an odd way a $269 PS3 makes the PS4 look much more valuable.

I still can't believe how poorly GT6 sold. Polyphony has to be freaking out right now, though the wound is self inflicted. Need to get a PS4 version out pronto.
Yeah, and I am not sure it's just because Sony wants high margins from PS3 but because it's harder and harder to reduce the manufacturing costs with modern consoles at least to the same level as PS2 (PS2 for example didn't have harddrive).

How well does GT usually sell in the US? It's more popular in Europe isn't it? And the install base of PS3's is much smaller in the US as well. Does one month of NPD numbers really tell us anything at this point about GT6 success?
GT5 did 2.81 million in NA (about 550k first NPD if I remember right). In Europe GT5 has sold 6.74 million.
 
Jul 29, 2010
4,238
66
655
How well does GT usually sell in the US? It's more popular in Europe isn't it? And the install base of PS3's is much smaller in the US as well. Does one month of NPD numbers really tell us anything at this point about GT6 success?
GT6 has pretty definitely had a smaller launch in Japan, and I think the same case in the US and Europe. It doesn't bode well for a game on a console whose successor is now out.

@Aqua, cream, or John
I'm doing math to figure out Lego Marvel Superheroes sales across each platform in December, any hints here? A pie chart perhaps :)?

Known facts:
500k < Lego Dec sales < 1m
100K < PS4 < XBO < 150K

Ordering from NPD = 360 > PS3 > 3DS > XBO > PS4 > NWU > PSV > PC


Here's calculating the max amount Lego could have sold on the 360 this month:
999K = Dec total = max of range

X360 > 104K (PS3) > 103K (3DS) > 102K (XBO) > 101K (PS4) > 100K
That leaves the 360 with 589K max assuming the other consoles (NWU, Vita and PC sold less than 1K together, which I really doubt and hope isn't the case...)

Now the lower range for the 360

X360 > PS3 > 3DS > 149K (XBO) > 148K (PS4) > 0...
I've got about 235K

So as an approx calc I have 360 Lego anywhere from 235K to 589K. Any thoughts?
 
Jul 6, 2013
3,080
0
0
to a large chunk of the mainstream audience, the consoles are close substitutes.
This is effectively "consumers are dumb/can't tell the difference" in another wrapping. It's the same argument that was leveraged by Wii U apologists determined to prove that the PS4/Xbone would be DOA because consumers wouldn't see any reason to upgrade to new systems over continuing with the PS360 for the forseeable future. 7.2m sales later, that argument is due to be retired, and is just as useless here.
 
May 20, 2009
31,241
2
725
Dead Rising 3 - 526K
Forze Motorsport 5 - 457K
Ryse - 431K


Fucking so good to hear these are doing ok in their sales. I own all 3,theyre worth playing daily. Loving that Ryse is near half a mil. That game saw so many trolls and haters try and kill it before it was even born at retail. Facepalm and a plate of crow to every troller who pulled off their usual driveby horse shit towards this game....the sales proove we'll most likely see a sequel to this one. Very happy for that.
All the reviewers who thought it was crap or mediocre and caused it to average 60 were trolls and haters as well, right?

Or maybe you have somehow developed a persecution complex over a Videogame you have no personal connection with other than buying it.
 
Jun 18, 2005
12,707
0
0
45
Las Vegas
It'll be interesting to see the January numbers. These two consoles have shattered all prior launch month and 2nd month records. Can they threepeat? Or is the pent-up demand from the too-long generation sated enough to bring their sales back to earth?

The best January sales on record are:

679k - Wii in Jan 2009, after severe shortages in December (it only sold 2.1m in Dec, after 2m in Nov, couldn't be found anywhere).

510k - DS in Jan 2009, following a record-breaking December (at the time) of 3m units sold.

490k - PS2 in Jan 2005, after severe shortages in December. Sony stopped making the original model earlier in the year, but then couldn't ship enough of the new slim model to meet demand.

Those are the high water marks. A "normal" January, if there is such a thing, is more along the lines of 200-300k.
 
May 2, 2013
10,668
0
0
Tallahassee
So what are our estimates for the LTD's of each console now?

Off the top of my head... PS4's officially around 4.2m, Xbone's at around 3m, and Wii U's about 4.6m or so? The Wii U's the one I'm curious about, as I don't recall how much it had before December. Something like 4.1m, right?
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
So what are our estimates for the LTD's of each console now?

Off the top of my head... PS4's officially around 4.2m, Xbone's at around 3m, and Wii U's about 4.6m or so? The Wii U's the one I'm curious about, as I don't recall how much it had before December. Something like 4.1m, right?
From aquamarine in the Nintendo forecast revised thread

3.91 million as of September 30th, 2013. We'll find out what the LTD as of December 30th is on January 29th. Bookmark your calendar!
 
Jun 18, 2005
12,707
0
0
45
Las Vegas
This is effectively "consumers are dumb/can't tell the difference" in another wrapping.
Yes. The mainstream audience may not know the actual differences between two competing products, but they will not consider them interchangeable. That may be more true of consoles than most products. Any retailer can tell you how hard it is to sell someone on a different product than they came in the store to buy, especially if you offer it as an "equivalent" replacement, rather than a much better product. Just last month, I'm sure there were many thousands of attempts to offer customers Xbox Ones in place of requested PS4s, and I guarantee only a very small percentage of those attempts were successful. It happens, but it's rare.
 

C4Lukins

Junior Member
Feb 27, 2006
14,179
0
0
Austin, TX
I'd imagine Xbox One will overtake PS4 in January in NA since you can't seem to buy a PS4 anywhere at the moment or for the foreseeable future.

I find it hard to imagine that Sony will not have a major shipment to the US this month. I guessed 350k assuming they can produce and ship around a million a month, but I have no idea if that is what they are capable of. If they could ship a million a month, I would assume US and UK would get the majority because those are the two most competitive major countries.
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
I've been saying PS4bone, but that won't be what anyone settles on I'm sure. I'm still mad the xbone moniker has been largely abandoned.
For whatever reason I've never been a fan of that nickname for the XB1, seemed overly long

True. Though the base 360 has been $149 off and on since Nov. the PS3 rarely dips below $200, why I don't know.
Cell still ain't cheap
 
Aug 31, 2005
19,699
1
0
This is effectively "consumers are dumb/can't tell the difference" in another wrapping. It's the same argument that was leveraged by Wii U apologists determined to prove that the PS4/Xbone would be DOA because consumers wouldn't see any reason to upgrade to new systems over continuing with the PS360 for the forseeable future. 7.2m sales later, that argument is due to be retired, and is just as useless here.
Well hey, let's not throw it out completely. I think there's definitely a point where people won't know or care about a power gap. It's just that the WiiU was nowhere near that point.
 
May 31, 2013
23,628
0
0
PS4Bone is the best I've heard, but even that doesn't have the nice flow of PS360. The new systems just don't lend themselves to name-fusion like their prev-gen counterparts did.
Hmm Playstation Four and Xbox One

PSFoNE anyone? PSFoxOne?
I'll show myself out

That's a shipment number btw.
Ah my mistake then

It comes off as childish too. Like saying Poopstation or something along those lines. It's very hard to un-see, though.
I do find it fairly immature but it is a natural fit I suppose giving the official name. I just find XB1 to be far faster to type.

ALSO X1 is a voice-controlled cable box made by Comcast, it is not a suitable acronym for the XB1 or XBO
 
Jul 6, 2013
3,080
0
0
Well hey, let's not throw it out completely. I think there's definitely a point where people won't know or care about a power gap. It's just that the WiiU was nowhere near that point.
I wasn't focusing on the power gap or anything of the sort, just the folly of this notion that consumers are too stupid or too unconcerned to be bothered to distinguish between different systems. The whole idea that people who can't find PS4s will just buy Xbones assumes there are tens of thousands of consumers that will impulsively decide to change how they will spend $500+ because "they look similar enough lol XD" is the extent of their knowledge of the matter, a silly assumption especially when you're looking at that kind of money.

It comes off as childish too.
Get dicks off yo mind, mang.
 
Aug 31, 2005
19,699
1
0
What's wrong with XBone? It's X Box One abbreviated in a way that's catchy. I don't even think of it as an insult, it sounds more like a name for a rock station than "SUCK-BOX/CRAP-BOX".
 
Jun 6, 2012
5,419
0
0
This is effectively "consumers are dumb/can't tell the difference" in another wrapping. It's the same argument that was leveraged by Wii U apologists determined to prove that the PS4/Xbone would be DOA because consumers wouldn't see any reason to upgrade to new systems over continuing with the PS360 for the forseeable future. 7.2m sales later, that argument is due to be retired, and is just as useless here.
This isn't even close to "consumers are dumb" at all. This is rational thinking with sensible economic theory. Obviously there are people at spectrums where the Xbox One and PS4 are not substitute goods for eachother at all (IE console warriors, people who are only buying in order to play with their console specific group of friends) but there'll be quite an overlap for people who wouldn't mind getting either the Xbox One or the PS4. Some will be more patient and be ok with waiting a bit longer but there'll certainly be a pretty significant chunk of people who want to play video games now. This isn't "the consumer is stupid" in fact it's quite the opposite. "The consumer has rational thinking and values getting one close substitute now for $500 to waiting for the other substitute later for $400."
Unless you're going to dispute that the consoles aren't close substitutes, there is not a real point of contention here. This is solid economic theory (albeit written informally by someone who hasn't studied it in about a year.) It's not really possibly to quantify because it's hard to say how many of these people there were but it will certainly be a significant number.

Take a simplified case study. You're a consumer for a microwave. You want the top brand recommended by your peers. It happens to be out of stock in your city, but you want a microwave now, so you purchase another one. This doesn't require the consumer to be stupid, it simply requires the consumer to be able to rationally value the personal cost to them of waiting to get their preffered product. Dare I say it, around christmas time people value the personal cost of waiting to be pretty big. Many people getting presents for others would rather be able to give a tangible Xbox One than leave an "IOU PS4" note under the tree