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NPD Sales Results for December 2013 [Up2: Xbox One/360 HW, 3DS top system of year]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
- 3432
3DS at 3.8 million is the worst result for the best selling system of each year since at least 2001 (I don't have NPD data before that):
2001 PS2: 6.2m
2002 PS2: 8.4m
2003 GBA: 7.8m
2004 GBA: 7.1m
2005 PS2: 5.5m
2006 NDS: 5.3m
2007 NDS: 8.5m
2008 WII: 10.2m
2009 NDS: 11.2m
2010 NDS: 8.6m
2011 360: 7.3m
2012 360: 5.3m
2013 3DS:
Top selling console each year:2000 GBC: 6.8m
1999 GBC: 6.4m
1998 PSX: 7.1m
1997 PSX: 5.1m
1996 PSX: 2.0m
1995 SNES: 2.3m
1994 GEN: 3.3m
1993 GEN: 4.7m?
1992 GEN: 4.5m
Because I love you guys so much =]
There isn't any economic theory involved to begin with. When you make this claim:
you're effectively restating the point from earlier - consumers magically don't care about how they spend large amounts of money. As I said before, the whole thing is built upon this notion that thousands of consumers are too stupid or too carefree to be concerned about distinguishing between potential $500+ expenditures.
you're effectively restating the point from earlier - consumers magically don't care about how they spend large amounts of money. As I said before, the whole thing is built upon this notion that thousands of consumers are too stupid or too carefree to be concerned about distinguishing between potential $500+ expenditures.
The rest of your post was a bit of a ramble. The simple truth is, they're not close substitutes. They're different brands in a very brand-sensitive market. They're not microwaves. Sure, it's true no one is very brand-sensitive about microwaves, but that's a terrible example to try and compare. This is more like offering someone Cinemax when they're trying to buy HBO, Reeboks when they asked for Nikes, or a Kindle to someone who wants an iPad. It's not an acceptable substitute to most shoppers, whether it's Christmas or not.
I completely forgot about MG xD. You're right about InFamous but I figured w/ it releasing so soon a lot of people who might want it already got a PS4 or are getting one this month.
Probably am. But didn't Halo 4 bog the series down a bit?
I only assumed it would happen like that because w/ the price drop in Nov. (especially if in the first half) sales would eat through December supply. That's also assuming retailers get some or most of their Dec. stock in advance and just store them until the scheduled time to put on the sales floor.
Probably am. But didn't Halo 4 bog the series down a bit?
I only assumed it would happen like that because w/ the price drop in Nov. (especially if in the first half) sales would eat through December supply. That's also assuming retailers get some or most of their Dec. stock in advance and just store them until the scheduled time to put on the sales floor.
I'm not contending everyone finds them to be close substitutes, I acknowledged the Microwave example is a simplified version but it was just used to explain the type of people who aren't "stupid consumers" and would still pick something else over their ideal choice when confronted with supply shortages. This is going to apply in some degree to the PS4 and Xbox One, though not in the same way as the Microwave. I also contend that it is significant for the christmas reason and the fact I think they're actually quite close substitutes in the eyes of quite a few people. Me for example: but I got both instead of choosing. (On another note if there were no Nikes in my area I'd take Reeboks.)
Just a summary of Dec > Jan transactions in recent years:
Avg Dec > Jan change = -78.1%
Assuming 78.1% drop for every HW in Jan-14:
Honestly sub-200k for X1/PS4 would pretty good considering that the Wii U managed only 1/4 that in its first non-holiday month.
Code:
Dec-06 Jan-07 change
NDS 1600K 239K -85%
Wii 604K 436K -28%
360 1100K 294K -73%
PS2 1500K 299K -80%
PS3 491K 244K -50%
PSP 952K 211K -78%
Code:
Dec-07 Jan-08 % change
360 1,260K 230K - 82%
NDS 2,470K 251K - 90%
PS2 1,100K 264K - 76%
PS3 798K 269K - 66%
PSP 1,060K 230K - 78%
WII 1,350K 274K - 80%
Code:
Dec-08 Jan-09 % change
360 1440K 309K - 79%
NDS 3040K 511K - 83%
PS2 410K 101K - 77%
PS3 726K 203K - 72%
PSP 1020K 172K - 83%
WII 2150K 679K - 68%
Code:
Dec-09 Jan-10 % change
360 1310K 333K - 75%
NDS 3310K 422K - 87%
PS3 1360K 277K - 80%
WII 3810K 466K - 88%
Code:
Dec-10 Jan-11 change
NDS 2500K 291K -88%
Wii 2360K 319K -86%
360 1860K 381K -80%
PS3 1210K 267K -78%
Code:
Dec-11 Jan-12 change
360 1700K 270K -84%
PS3+Wii*1996K 340K -83%
3DS* 1600K 175K -89%
*We didn't get exact Jan-12 numbers for 3DS/PS3/Wii. [URL="http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=464718"]See this for more.[/URL]
Code:
Dec-12 Jan-13 change
360 1400K 281K -80%
3DS 1250K 145K -88%
PS3 625K 201K -68%
WiU 460K 57K -88%
PSV 225K 35K -84%Assuming 78.1% drop for every HW in Jan-14:
Code:
Dec-13 estimated Jan-14
X1 908 199
PS4 865 189
3DS 1100 241
PS3 299 65
360 643 141
PSV 95 21
WiU 481 105
WII U AHEAD OF DREAMCAST!?!??! BARELY?!?!? THIS IS A GAME CHANGER GUYS.
PS4 will be much more dependent on how many Sony can ship, same as Wii early on. XB1 will be interesting, but don't think it'll drop to < 200K. Wii U would be doing wonderfully to hold above 100K, but I don't think that's going to happen...
So 3DS is down YoY.. that's extremely disappointing for the plattform. I'm curious to find out whether that was more due to dedicated handheld sales trends in general or because of the introduction of PS4/Xb1 (i.e. people only spending so much money). We'll see in the coming months once PS4/Xb1 hype is more or less gone.
it's down yoy for december, but for november and december, sales are flat. the months were distributed a little differently between this year and last. in 2012, november ended on the 24th. this year it ended on the 30th. in 2012, december ended on the 30th. in 2013, it ended on january 5 2014. so december had one less holiday-crazy week this year than it did last year.
november 2012: 540k
december 2012: 1.25m
total: 1.79m
november 2013: 770k
december 2013: 1.1m
total: 1.87m
i think the wii u's jump during december indicates whatever they sold in november must have been on black friday. actually having advertisements on television probably helped boost sales too. last year, the vita was flat from november to december. i expected the same for the wii u this year.
november 2012: 540k
december 2012: 1.25m
total: 1.79m
november 2013: 770k
december 2013: 1.1m
total: 1.87m
i think the wii u's jump during december indicates whatever they sold in november must have been on black friday. actually having advertisements on television probably helped boost sales too. last year, the vita was flat from november to december. i expected the same for the wii u this year.
Zelda : OOT probably
Once Zelda OOT hit along with Metroid 64 and Super Smash and all that ( Goldeneye ), the N64 was popular. But still sales wise was destroyed.
The Wii U being even worse then the GC should be a nightmare for Nintendo, especially after the Wii success they were working off of.
I do not think a machine has alienated the built up fanbase of the previous system as much as the Wii U. Most people I know who are casual who owned a Wii look at the Wii U on shelves as something completely unrelated to the Wii. Some do not even realize the Wii controllers still work, or motion stuff still is used in the system. Nintendo did that bad of a job.
Once Zelda OOT hit along with Metroid 64 and Super Smash and all that ( Goldeneye ), the N64 was popular. But still sales wise was destroyed.
The Wii U being even worse then the GC should be a nightmare for Nintendo, especially after the Wii success they were working off of.
I do not think a machine has alienated the built up fanbase of the previous system as much as the Wii U. Most people I know who are casual who owned a Wii look at the Wii U on shelves as something completely unrelated to the Wii. Some do not even realize the Wii controllers still work, or motion stuff still is used in the system. Nintendo did that bad of a job.
I have no problem with this. If the market shrinks, manufacturers and developers merely readjust for it. Right now the market it bloated, it was especially bloated pre-2010, and could use a trimming.
You act like iPad is sucking away the core/hardcore gamers and that there haven't been any new core/hardcore gamers since the PS2. You're also acting like none of those iPad players will get bored and want to play more sophisticated games on consoles.
It's not that insular.
You act like iPad is sucking away the core/hardcore gamers and that there haven't been any new core/hardcore gamers since the PS2. You're also acting like none of those iPad players will get bored and want to play more sophisticated games on consoles.
It's not that insular.
100k is reasonable. the WiiU would have done about that much last year, but had an absolutely MONSTROUS amount of returns from scalpers knocking it down into the 40-50k range.
Those returns won't be there this year, no one in their right mind is scalping WiiU's. Anyone who bought it in december was fully aware of what they were getting.
oh man. laughed quite a bit at this one. More fodder for the neogaf shit posts twitter, I suppose.
The real answer here is goldeneye, obviously. The N64 only sold about 36 million units, but 9 million copies of goldeneye- which is quite frankly a monstrous attach rate, all things considered.
Those returns won't be there this year, no one in their right mind is scalping WiiU's. Anyone who bought it in december was fully aware of what they were getting.
oh man. laughed quite a bit at this one. More fodder for the neogaf shit posts twitter, I suppose.
The real answer here is goldeneye, obviously. The N64 only sold about 36 million units, but 9 million copies of goldeneye- which is quite frankly a monstrous attach rate, all things considered.
Nope. The Wii holds the lead for another month, and maybe several at this point. The 360 just ticked past 41 million, with the Wii about 580k ahead still. Assuming Wii sales pretty much stop dead, which is likely, it'll still take the 360 at least 3 months to catch up, and probably more like 6 or so.