NPD Sales Results for December 2013 [Up2: Xbox One/360 HW, 3DS top system of year]

Oct 10, 2010
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3DS at 3.8 million is the worst result for the best selling system of each year since at least 2001 (I don't have NPD data before that):

2001 PS2: 6.2m
2002 PS2: 8.4m
2003 GBA: 7.8m
2004 GBA: 7.1m
2005 PS2: 5.5m
2006 NDS: 5.3m
2007 NDS: 8.5m
2008 WII: 10.2m
2009 NDS: 11.2m
2010 NDS: 8.6m
2011 360: 7.3m
2012 360: 5.3m
2013 3DS:
I can help you out ;) Top selling console each year:
2000 GBC: 6.8m
1999 GBC: 6.4m
1998 PSX: 7.1m
1997 PSX: 5.1m
1996 PSX: 2.0m
1995 SNES: 2.3m
1994 GEN: 3.3m
1993 GEN: 4.7m?
1992 GEN: 4.5m

Because I love you guys so much =]
 
Jul 6, 2013
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This is solid economic theory
There isn't any economic theory involved to begin with. When you make this claim:

there'll be quite an overlap for people who wouldn't mind getting either the Xbox One or the PS4.
you're effectively restating the point from earlier - consumers magically don't care about how they spend large amounts of money. As I said before, the whole thing is built upon this notion that thousands of consumers are too stupid or too carefree to be concerned about distinguishing between potential $500+ expenditures.
 
Jun 6, 2012
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There isn't any economic theory involved to begin with. When you make this claim:



you're effectively restating the point from earlier - consumers magically don't care about how they spend large amounts of money. As I said before, the whole thing is built upon this notion that thousands of consumers are too stupid or too carefree to be concerned about distinguishing between potential $500+ expenditures.
So you are contending that they're not close substitutes? Well then we can agree to disagree. It seems like you ignored the rest of my post explaining it anyway.
 
Jun 18, 2005
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So you are contending that they're not close substitutes? Well then we can agree to disagree. It seems like you ignored the rest of my post explaining it anyway.
The rest of your post was a bit of a ramble. The simple truth is, they're not close substitutes. They're different brands in a very brand-sensitive market. They're not microwaves. Sure, it's true no one is very brand-sensitive about microwaves, but that's a terrible example to try and compare. This is more like offering someone Cinemax when they're trying to buy HBO, Reeboks when they asked for Nikes, or a Kindle to someone who wants an iPad. It's not an acceptable substitute to most shoppers, whether it's Christmas or not.
 
March - XBO is a safe bet but inFamous has a decent fanbase. Also, Metal Gear is releasing this month, most fans will be on Playstation.
I completely forgot about MG xD. You're right about InFamous but I figured w/ it releasing so soon a lot of people who might want it already got a PS4 or are getting one this month.

November - I think you're underestimating Halo 5! Again, no way to tell who can win this one this far in advance.
Probably am. But didn't Halo 4 bog the series down a bit?

December - Doesn't make sense. If PS4 could beat XBO on Halo 5 release month, it would easily be able to take December as well.
I only assumed it would happen like that because w/ the price drop in Nov. (especially if in the first half) sales would eat through December supply. That's also assuming retailers get some or most of their Dec. stock in advance and just store them until the scheduled time to put on the sales floor.
 
Jun 6, 2012
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The rest of your post was a bit of a ramble. The simple truth is, they're not close substitutes. They're different brands in a very brand-sensitive market. They're not microwaves. Sure, it's true no one is very brand-sensitive about microwaves, but that's a terrible example to try and compare. This is more like offering someone Cinemax when they're trying to buy HBO, Reeboks when they asked for Nikes, or a Kindle to someone who wants an iPad. It's not an acceptable substitute to most shoppers, whether it's Christmas or not.
I'm not contending everyone finds them to be close substitutes, I acknowledged the Microwave example is a simplified version but it was just used to explain the type of people who aren't "stupid consumers" and would still pick something else over their ideal choice when confronted with supply shortages. This is going to apply in some degree to the PS4 and Xbox One, though not in the same way as the Microwave. I also contend that it is significant for the christmas reason and the fact I think they're actually quite close substitutes in the eyes of quite a few people. Me for example: but I got both instead of choosing. (On another note if there were no Nikes in my area I'd take Reeboks.)
 
Sep 10, 2010
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2001 PS2: 6.2m
2002 PS2: 8.4m
2003 GBA: 7.8m
2004 GBA: 7.1m
2005 PS2: 5.5m
2006 NDS: 5.3m
2007 NDS: 8.5m
2008 WII: 10.2m
2009 NDS: 11.2m

iPad releases


2010 NDS: 8.6m
2011 360: 7.3m
2012 360: 5.3m
2013 3DS: 3.84
 

C4Lukins

Junior Member
Feb 27, 2006
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2001 PS2: 6.2m
2002 PS2: 8.4m
2003 GBA: 7.8m
2004 GBA: 7.1m
2005 PS2: 5.5m
2006 NDS: 5.3m
2007 NDS: 8.5m
2008 WII: 10.2m
2009 NDS: 11.2m

iPad releases


2010 NDS: 8.6m
2011 360: 7.3m
2012 360: 5.3m
2013 3DS: 3.84
This makes me sad. But human nature tends to rebel against with what is standard. Let's hope that gaming will win over nasty touch screen rookies.
 
Sep 17, 2013
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Road totaled up the systems for the year earlier. 3DS being #1 at 3.8m makes is the worst selling #1 system for the year since 1996. Blip or omen? We'll see!
Tough to say since these new consoles only had a month and a half on selves, so I think it might be too early to have serious doubts... but if neither of the new home consoles doesn't improve upon that number in 2014, then yeah, it would be an ominous sign.
 
Aug 10, 2012
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Just a summary of Dec > Jan transactions in recent years:

Code:
 	Dec-06	Jan-07	change
NDS	1600K	239K	-85%
Wii	604K	436K	-28%
360	1100K	294K	-73%
PS2	1500K	299K	-80%
PS3	491K	244K	-50%
PSP	952K	211K	-78%
Code:
      Dec-07   Jan-08   % change
360   1,260K     230K      - 82%
NDS   2,470K     251K      - 90%
PS2   1,100K     264K      - 76%
PS3     798K     269K      - 66%
PSP   1,060K     230K      - 78%
WII   1,350K     274K      - 80%
Code:
      Dec-08  Jan-09   % change
360    1440K    309K   - 79%
NDS    3040K    511K   - 83%
PS2     410K    101K   - 77%
PS3     726K    203K   - 72%
PSP    1020K    172K   - 83%
WII    2150K    679K   - 68%
Code:
      Dec-09  Jan-10   % change
360    1310K    333K   - 75%
NDS    3310K    422K   - 87%
PS3    1360K    277K   - 80%
WII    3810K    466K   - 88%
Code:
	Dec-10	Jan-11	change
NDS	2500K	291K	-88%
Wii	2360K	319K	-86%
360	1860K	381K	-80%
PS3	1210K	267K	-78%
Code:
	Dec-11	Jan-12	change
360	1700K	270K	-84%
PS3+Wii*1996K	340K	-83%
3DS*	1600K	175K	-89%

*We didn't get exact Jan-12 numbers for 3DS/PS3/Wii. [URL="http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=464718"]See this for more.[/URL]
Code:
	Dec-12	Jan-13	change
360	1400K	281K	-80%
3DS	1250K	145K	-88%
PS3	625K	201K	-68%
WiU	460K	57K	-88%
PSV	225K	35K	-84%
Avg Dec > Jan change = -78.1%

Assuming 78.1% drop for every HW in Jan-14:

Code:
	Dec-13	estimated Jan-14
X1	908	199
PS4	865	189
3DS	1100	241
PS3	299	65
360	643	141
PSV	95	21
WiU	481	105
Honestly sub-200k for X1/PS4 would pretty good considering that the Wii U managed only 1/4 that in its first non-holiday month.
 
Apr 18, 2005
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WII U AHEAD OF DREAMCAST!?!??! BARELY?!?!? THIS IS A GAME CHANGER GUYS.

:)
Dreamcast would've finished the gen, if SEGA had been in better financial straits. Dreamcast got a raw deal.

Honestly sub-200k for X1/PS4 would pretty good considering that the Wii U managed only 1/4 that in its first non-holiday month.
PS4 will be much more dependent on how many Sony can ship, same as Wii early on. XB1 will be interesting, but don't think it'll drop to < 200K. Wii U would be doing wonderfully to hold above 100K, but I don't think that's going to happen...
 
Mar 14, 2009
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Dead Rising 3 - 526K
Forze Motorsport 5 - 457K
Ryse - 431K


Fucking so good to hear these are doing ok in their sales. I own all 3,theyre worth playing daily. Loving that Ryse is near half a mil. That game saw so many trolls and haters try and kill it before it was even born at retail.
The reviews killed its chance for a sequel.
Doubt it. They'll address the combat and do a strong marketing push against the main criticism of the game then the haters will have to find something else to bash.
 
Jul 18, 2005
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So 3DS is down YoY.. that's extremely disappointing for the plattform. I'm curious to find out whether that was more due to dedicated handheld sales trends in general or because of the introduction of PS4/Xb1 (i.e. people only spending so much money). We'll see in the coming months once PS4/Xb1 hype is more or less gone.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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So 3DS is down YoY.. that's extremely disappointing for the plattform. I'm curious to find out whether that was more due to dedicated handheld sales trends in general or because of the introduction of PS4/Xb1 (i.e. people only spending so much money). We'll see in the coming months once PS4/Xb1 hype is more or less gone.
it's down yoy for december, but for november and december, sales are flat. the months were distributed a little differently between this year and last. in 2012, november ended on the 24th. this year it ended on the 30th. in 2012, december ended on the 30th. in 2013, it ended on january 5 2014. so december had one less holiday-crazy week this year than it did last year.

november 2012: 540k
december 2012: 1.25m
total: 1.79m

november 2013: 770k
december 2013: 1.1m
total: 1.87m

i think the wii u's jump during december indicates whatever they sold in november must have been on black friday. actually having advertisements on television probably helped boost sales too. last year, the vita was flat from november to december. i expected the same for the wii u this year.
 
Aug 4, 2013
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Why the hell did N64 sales suddenly explode like that?
Zelda : OOT probably

Once Zelda OOT hit along with Metroid 64 and Super Smash and all that ( Goldeneye ), the N64 was popular. But still sales wise was destroyed.

The Wii U being even worse then the GC should be a nightmare for Nintendo, especially after the Wii success they were working off of.

I do not think a machine has alienated the built up fanbase of the previous system as much as the Wii U. Most people I know who are casual who owned a Wii look at the Wii U on shelves as something completely unrelated to the Wii. Some do not even realize the Wii controllers still work, or motion stuff still is used in the system. Nintendo did that bad of a job.
 
Mar 27, 2007
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Zelda : OOT probably

Once Zelda OOT hit along with Metroid 64 and Super Smash and all that ( Goldeneye ), the N64 was popular. But still sales wise was destroyed.

The Wii U being even worse then the GC should be a nightmare for Nintendo, especially after the Wii success they were working off of.

I do not think a machine has alienated the built of fanbase of the previous system as much as the Wii U. Most people I know who are casual who owned a Wii look at the Wii U on shelves as something completely unrelated to the Wii. Some do not even realize the Wii controllers still work, or motion stuff still is used in the system. Nintendo did that bad of a job.
Ocarina of Time came out in 1998, and Super Smash Bros. came out in 199. Goldeneye did come out in 1997, though.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
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For the two systems that just launched, the most important numbers to look at are the 2006->2007 transition. The supply constrained Wii dropped 28%, and the PS3, which wasn't supply constrained in January, dropped 50%. What was the 360's first transition like.
It was still supply constrained, as I recall.
Code:
Nov 2005: 360 - 326K
Dec 2005: 360 - 281K
Jan 2006: 360 - 250K
Feb 2006: 360 - 161K
 
Jul 18, 2005
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it's down yoy for december, but for november and december, sales are flat. the months were distributed a little differently between this year and last. in 2012, november ended on the 24th. this year it ended on the 30th. in 2012, december ended on the 30th. in 2013, it ended on january 5 2014. so december had one less holiday-crazy week this year than it did last year.

november 2012: 540k
december 2012: 1.25m
total: 1.79m

november 2013: 770k
december 2013: 1.1m
total: 1.87m

i think the wii u's jump during december indicates whatever they sold in november must have been on black friday. actually having advertisements on television probably helped boost sales too. last year, the vita was flat from november to december. i expected the same for the wii u this year.

Oh wow, I didn't know anymore that 3DS' Nov 2012 sales were that bad. Thinks are looking quite a bit better, thanks for the explanation.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
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Oh wow, I didn't know anymore that 3DS' Nov 2012 sales were that bad. Thinks are looking quite a bit better, thanks for the explanation.
November 2012 saw Nintendo with just Paper Mario and a red OG 3DS + 3D Land bundle as main Black Friday deal. That's the main reason such low sales happened.
 
Oct 30, 2009
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Zelda : OOT probably

Once Zelda OOT hit along with Metroid 64 and Super Smash and all that ( Goldeneye ), the N64 was popular. But still sales wise was destroyed.

The Wii U being even worse then the GC should be a nightmare for Nintendo, especially after the Wii success they were working off of.

I do not think a machine has alienated the built up fanbase of the previous system as much as the Wii U. Most people I know who are casual who owned a Wii look at the Wii U on shelves as something completely unrelated to the Wii. Some do not even realize the Wii controllers still work, or motion stuff still is used in the system. Nintendo did that bad of a job.
That chart is first year sales only. Also, Metroid 64 isn't a game :p
 
2001 PS2: 6.2m
2002 PS2: 8.4m
2003 GBA: 7.8m
2004 GBA: 7.1m
2005 PS2: 5.5m
2006 NDS: 5.3m
2007 NDS: 8.5m
2008 WII: 10.2m
2009 NDS: 11.2m

iPad releases


2010 NDS: 8.6m
2011 360: 7.3m
2012 360: 5.3m
2013 3DS: 3.84
I have no problem with this. If the market shrinks, manufacturers and developers merely readjust for it. Right now the market it bloated, it was especially bloated pre-2010, and could use a trimming.

You act like iPad is sucking away the core/hardcore gamers and that there haven't been any new core/hardcore gamers since the PS2. You're also acting like none of those iPad players will get bored and want to play more sophisticated games on consoles.

It's not that insular.
 
Nov 3, 2006
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that would represent an unbelievable uptick. i don't see it. 40k-50k is more like it.
100k is reasonable. the WiiU would have done about that much last year, but had an absolutely MONSTROUS amount of returns from scalpers knocking it down into the 40-50k range.

Those returns won't be there this year, no one in their right mind is scalping WiiU's. Anyone who bought it in december was fully aware of what they were getting.

Zelda : OOT probably

Once Zelda OOT hit along with Metroid 64 and Super Smash and all that ( Goldeneye ), the N64 was popular. But still sales wise was destroyed.

The Wii U being even worse then the GC should be a nightmare for Nintendo, especially after the Wii success they were working off of.

I do not think a machine has alienated the built up fanbase of the previous system as much as the Wii U. Most people I know who are casual who owned a Wii look at the Wii U on shelves as something completely unrelated to the Wii. Some do not even realize the Wii controllers still work, or motion stuff still is used in the system. Nintendo did that bad of a job.
oh man. laughed quite a bit at this one. More fodder for the neogaf shit posts twitter, I suppose.

The real answer here is goldeneye, obviously. The N64 only sold about 36 million units, but 9 million copies of goldeneye- which is quite frankly a monstrous attach rate, all things considered.
 
Jun 18, 2005
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Perhaps someone like Aquamarine would know this but, has the 360 finally outsold the Wii in the US? I remember the numbers were superclose in November.
Nope. The Wii holds the lead for another month, and maybe several at this point. The 360 just ticked past 41 million, with the Wii about 580k ahead still. Assuming Wii sales pretty much stop dead, which is likely, it'll still take the 360 at least 3 months to catch up, and probably more like 6 or so.
 
Jun 18, 2005
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100k is reasonable. the WiiU would have done about that much last year, but had an absolutely MONSTROUS amount of returns from scalpers knocking it down into the 40-50k range.

Those returns won't be there this year, no one in their right mind is scalping WiiU's. Anyone who bought it in december was fully aware of what they were getting.
100k is not reasonable. The way the Wii U is tracking vs. the Gamecube, the absolute best it could hope for next month is about 65k. 100k would beat the Gamecube's equivalent month - something the Wii U has never done. There's no reason it could or would start now.