NPD Sales Results for December 2014 [Up2: Nintendo Sales Notes]

After how well Infamous SS sold, I don't see why anyone would think that another similar Sony 1st party game would not be similarly successfully.

Even Killzone was a million seller, and that was the worst AAA game I've played in a very, very long time, with poor word of mouth and less than stellar reviews.

The jury is still out about whether The Order will be a good game or not, but it's a shoo-in that it will sell well.
It's a new IP. Infamous was the third game in the series. It's not exactly comparable.
 
Nov 26, 2013
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Have you forgotten all the DRM shit Microsoft tried to pull on gamers? Had the X1 sales exceeded the PS4's sales, there was no way in Hell Microsoft would have done a 180 on all their policies


At least Nintendo didn't pull any crazy DRM shit
i actually didn't have a problem with the drm stuff and quite a few people i know didn't either but they did a horrible job trying to explain their 'vision'.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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No I'm not nor do I believe the DRM was as bad as it was made out to be.

The $500 price point probably had more of an effect on sales.
Like another poster in this thread, YOU may be fine with the DRM policies. But many people were definitely not happy with it. And it is true the price had a significant impact on sales but that's just one of the factors

Many other factors outside of DRM.

Would it be fair to say the average gamer(i.e. someone who doesn't frequent forums) probably had no idea of this stuff?
Never underestimate bad word of mouth. Consumers aren't stupid and brand loyalty isn't as strong as many believe
 
Aug 20, 2013
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It won't receive positive reviews imo (70 Metacritic seems a fair expectation considering how most of the press has already openly decided against it before its release when it became apperent that the game is not Gears of War but a very cinematic and story driven third person shooter), but that has nothing to do with sales these days, it's not like bad reviews stopped Destiny or Watch Dogs from selling million units, nor positive reviews made Bayonetta or other niche games commercial successes.
I see The Order doing well for a few reasons, it's being marketed as (and at its core is) a third person shooter which is a genre with a huge group of fans, the game also features many fancy and cool weapons which is an other attractive point, it has a very interesting setting/story with amazing graphics and that alone will help a lot in making people wanting to play it to know what it's all about, on top of that the release window is really good and gives the game a nice spotlight in February.
I would be really surprised if the game struggles to sell at least 1m units in US+Europe during its launch period also considering the PS4 installed base.
I have a feeling that the game will be riddled with bugs. From the previews I read last year, the game has a very inconsistent framerate. I don't think it's unfair to say that it might still be an issue come release.

I also don't know if third person shooter is popular as much as open world games are popular (i.e. Watch_Dogs, GTA). It just so happened that we had a few open world games that were in the third person shooter genre that did well. Even The Last of Us was also a Zombie/survival horror game made from a very popular developer. The Order is a very different type of game from all those, taking place in a unique setting and very linear from what we've been told.

I think the game will underperform for sure. It will probably sell over a million (not by much), but that's a hardly a threshold of success for a game like this.
 
Aug 15, 2007
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I have a feeling that the game will be riddled with bugs. From the previews I read last year, the game has a very inconsistent framerate. I don't think it's unfair to say that it might still be an issue come release.

I also don't know if third person shooter is popular as much as open world games are popular (i.e. Watch_Dogs, GTA). It just so happened that we had a few open world games that were in the third person shooter genre that did well. Even The Last of Us was also a Zombie/survival horror game made from a very popular developer. The Order is a very different type of game from all those, taking place in a unique setting and very linear from what we've been told.

I think the game will underperform for sure. It will probably sell over a million (not by much), but that's a hardly a threshold of success for a game like this.
1 million? I'm assuming you're talking about US since this is NPD thread...1 million would be a failure for a 1st party title?

Edit: I guess you might be talking US+EU due to post you were responding to. But I actually expect it to sell better than Infamous simply due to install base and new software drought.
 
Jun 12, 2013
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I have a feeling that the game will be riddled with bugs. From the previews I read last year, the game has a very inconsistent framerate. I don't think it's unfair to say that it might still be an issue come release.
No, it's unfair, because latest previews as of the PSX build confirms that the framerate issues are rectified. There's still some bugs noted in that preview, but that was acknowledged by the devs themselves as being part of that build, and not something they're hiding.

A pre-launch game's performance is most fairly judged by its latest playable build, not by what it was 7 months ago.

I also don't know if third person shooter is popular as much as open world games are popular (i.e. Watch_Dogs, GTA). It just so happened that we had a few open world games that were in the third person shooter genre that did well. Even The Last of Us was also a Zombie/survival horror game made from a very popular developer. The Order is a very different type of game from all those, taking place in a unique setting and very linear from what we've been told.
Open-world games are definitely more popular, but that doesn't somehow mean that the linear TPS shooter genre is in any form of notable decline.
 
May 24, 2012
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Hmmmm...didn't even notice the great WiiU numbers. Good for Nintendo.
"great" is relative to how poorly the wii u has been doing


december npd rankings:

1) gamecube december 2003 (3rd holiday) - 1.16 million
2) gamecube december 2004 (4th holiday) - 0.80 million
3) gamecube december 2002 (2nd holiday) - 0.62 million
4) gamecube december 2005 (5th holiday) - 0.61 million
5) wii u december 2014 (3rd holiday)
6) gamecube december 2001 (1st holiday) - 0.57 million
7) wii u december 2013 (2nd holiday) - 0.48 million
8) wii u december 2012 (1st holiday) - 0.46 million
9) gamecube december 2006 (6th holiday) - 0.20 million


the gamecube, in its prime (3rd holiday), managed 1.16 million in december.

the wii u is in its prime this holiday (its 3rd holiday), but it couldn't even manage 0.60 million.
 

RoboPlato

I'd be in the dick
Oct 29, 2006
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I have a feeling that the game will be riddled with bugs. From the previews I read last year, the game has a very inconsistent framerate. I don't think it's unfair to say that it might still be an issue come release.

I also don't know if third person shooter is popular as much as open world games are popular (i.e. Watch_Dogs, GTA). It just so happened that we had a few open world games that were in the third person shooter genre that did well. Even The Last of Us was also a Zombie/survival horror game made from a very popular developer. The Order is a very different type of game from all those, taking place in a unique setting and very linear from what we've been told.

I think the game will underperform for sure. It will probably sell over a million (not by much), but that's a hardly a threshold of success for a game like this.
PSX performance was rock solid from what I've read.
 
Jul 27, 2014
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I don't think reviews will affect the initial sales of The Order. It will sell well at launch no matter how it reviews(they will be more important for it's legs). It's a TPS and an easier game to market to the masses than something like Bloodborne.

Also, nothing significant releases around it(Evolve will bomb). It already has nearly 200k pre-orders at GameStop alone. I think it will do 350k-450k in February(US).

---
Knack is also a million seller and it's a new IP.
But then again it was Knack aka the Mario Killer. :)
Not a good example. Knack was heavily bundled.
 
Mar 14, 2012
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After how well Infamous SS sold, I don't see why anyone would think that another similar Sony 1st party game would not be similarly successfully.

Even Killzone was a million seller, and that was the worst AAA game I've played in a very, very long time, with poor word of mouth and less than stellar reviews.

The jury is still out about whether The Order will be a good game or not, but it's a shoo-in that it will sell well.
And Little Big Planet bombed. Lesson: timing is everything.
 
Jun 12, 2013
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And Little Big Planet bombed. Lesson: timing is everything.
Timing and audience, as well, I'd say.

I like LBP, but as far as IPs appealing to children are concerned, Skylanders, Disney Infinity and Minecraft has really rose up to the occasion and taken a lot of mindshare from stuff like LBP.

I mean, the last console LBP was 2011.

2011 and 2014 are night and day as far as competition in the children space is concerned.
 
Mar 20, 2012
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"great" is relative to how poorly the wii u has been doing


december npd rankings:

1) gamecube december 2003 (3rd holiday) - 1.16 million
2) gamecube december 2004 (4th holiday) - 0.80 million
3) gamecube december 2002 (2nd holiday) - 0.62 million
4) gamecube december 2005 (5th holiday) - 0.61 million
5) wii u december 2014 (3rd holiday)
6) gamecube december 2001 (1st holiday) - 0.57 million
7) wii u december 2013 (2nd holiday) - 0.48 million
8) wii u december 2012 (1st holiday) - 0.46 million
9) gamecube december 2006 (6th holiday) - 0.20 million


the gamecube, in its prime (3rd holiday), managed 1.16 million in december.

the wii u is in its prime this holiday (its 3rd holiday), but it couldn't even manage 0.60 million.
why you always gotta kill the good vibes man...

* In my bob marley voice
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
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overall, xbox one was stronger than the ps4 in software sales this month. it wasn't by an extraordinary amount...but xbo's win was still enough to note a difference between the two.
Does NPD explain their methodology on counting the "pick one free" games, i.e. games that were not bundled in the box but that buyer got on top of the purchase when getting an Xbox One? (I understand there were such offers in Nov-Dec.) Meaning, do these have an effect on the NPD reported tie ratio?
 
Oct 20, 2013
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Nice to see the topic of the thread is now potential sales figures of The Order 1886. I guess Gaffers really can't help themselves with speculations. Also nice to see how January is not even talked about much. XD
Xbox one hourly chart on Amazon is climbing up, I wouldn't be surprised if it beats ps4 sales come January, the gap wouldn't be as big as nov and dec though.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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"great" is relative to how poorly the wii u has been doing


december npd rankings:

1) gamecube december 2003 (3rd holiday) - 1.16 million - $99
2) gamecube december 2004 (4th holiday) - 0.80 million - $99
3) gamecube december 2002 (2nd holiday) - 0.62 million - $149
4) gamecube december 2005 (5th holiday) - 0.61 million - $99
5) wii u december 2014 (3rd holiday) - $299
6) gamecube december 2001 (1st holiday) - 0.57 million - $199
7) wii u december 2013 (2nd holiday) - 0.48 million - $299
8) wii u december 2012 (1st holiday) - 0.46 million - $299 ($350 for the version everyone actually wanted)
9) gamecube december 2006 (6th holiday) - 0.20 million - $99


the gamecube, in its prime (3rd holiday), managed 1.16 million in december.

the wii u is in its prime this holiday (its 3rd holiday), but it couldn't even manage 0.60 million.
Added prices for some context.

Everyone is assuming that this will be its peak holiday (in the US at least)... while it's very possible that will remain the case given what we know, I think that 2014 WON'T be its peak holiday if Nintendo finally drops the price at least by $100 by next holiday, it has a chance of beating this holiday. It's still Nintendo's most expensive console right? It's also a console that appeals to diehard Nintendo fans and mostly kids, and I still think $299 is way too high of an entry barrier... especially when the other consoles are within earshot of that price.
 
Nov 13, 2011
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I thought the assumption is that 2014 will be the peak year as a whole, not specifically referring to holiday. Although the two are probably related.
if Nintendo finally drops the price at least by $100 by next holiday
I don't know if that's even plausible without some sort of product reconfiguration.

Also, I don't think the price is a major impediment to the diehard Nintendo fans, by their nature these most loyal markets are less price sensitive.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
Feb 17, 2005
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Also, I don't think the price is a major impediment to the diehard Nintendo fans, by their nature these most loyal markets are less price sensitive.
Extend Wii U's next potential for growth to 3DS owners, and price becomes a key factor. A sub $200 non premium Wii U bundled with a game would start selling to Nintendo fans beyond the wealthy diehard ones.

Such a price cut is likely to happen next year (blame Amibos, economies of scale, etc.) and will push Wii U in the realm of potential birthday present for 3DS kids.

Along with Wii U's finally having solved its disastrous image issue (it's praised left and right now in medias, following 2 years of pretty bad to horrible press - huge consumer perception difference), and with its coolest yearly lineup to come in 2015, building upon Smash and MK8 driving forces as evergreen system sellers, I believe we will keep seeing demand and growth for Wii U. It's peak will depend on how long Nintendo decides to support this platform.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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I thought the assumption is that 2014 will be the peak year as a whole, not specifically referring to holiday. Although the two are probably related.

I don't know if that's even plausible without some sort of product reconfiguration.

Also, I don't think the price is a major impediment to the diehard Nintendo fans, by their nature these most loyal markets are less price sensitive.
That's the problem... Nintendo needs to get folks outside of the diehard Nintendo fan group to buy the system right? Also the current ones are the ones wealthy and willing enough to plop down $300 on a system, even if it's just to play Smash & Kart. I know plenty of people who bought GCs pretty much for that, and at $99 it seemed like a no-brainer. You really think they made a console that they could never drop the price past the initial price point? I think their idea was to make as much money per unit on the Wii U as possible while there's still a reason for diehard fans to buy the system. I agree the economies of scale are against them here, but they seem fairly resourceful when making things cheaper (the 2DS probably makes them a good amount of money per unit for example). I'm pretty sure they're getting to the point of producing some new Wii Us if they haven't already, and hopefully they've thought up of some way to cut the manufacturing cost. Either that or it'll eventually be high time to take the hit on the hardware in the hopes of making more money on software (aka I assume 2015).
 
Nov 13, 2011
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You really think they made a console that they could never drop the price past the initial price point? I think their idea was to make as much money per unit on the Wii U as possible while there's still a reason for diehard fans to buy the system.
The system has already dropped from the initial price point.

I expect there'll be some manner of price reduction, but I think the continued inclusion of the GamePad will hamper any efforts. So I don't think it will be the magnitude you suggest while retaining positive margin.
Either that or it'll eventually be high time to take the hit on the hardware in the hopes of making more money on software (aka I assume 2015).
The focus isn't on trying to reclaim minor amounts of share now. It's on making what they can and riding it out. Thus, things like Amiibo have served them reasonably well in increasing the end-user spend on the system.

You think they're going to take the hit on the Wii U, when they don't even want to lose a couple dollars margin on the n3DS?
 

Panajev2001a

GAF's Pleasant Genius
Jun 7, 2004
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The system has already dropped from the initial price point.

I expect there'll be some manner of price reduction, but I think the continued inclusion of the GamePad will hamper any efforts. So I don't think it will be the magnitude you suggest while retaining positive margin.
The focus isn't on trying to reclaim minor amounts of share now. It's on making what they can and riding it out. Thus, things like Amiibo have served them reasonably well in increasing the end-user spend on the system.

You think they're going to take the hit on the Wii U, when they don't even want to lose a couple dollars margin on the n3DS?
I would think that they might want to at least appear like doing everything they can to save the Wii U and gain consumers' trust before launching the Wii U successor. One would hope so.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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I don't see that happening when half the month was back at $399.

February and March is also going to be won by PS4 with The Order, Bloodborne and MLB.
Yep, I agree completely. However, how well the PS4 and its exclusive games sell depends on Sony's marketing

IIRC, yesterday, Xbone was at 15th place, then up to 12, then drop to 13. PS4 fell from 5th to 8th place.
How are both consoles doing now?
 
May 8, 2008
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Many other factors outside of DRM.

Would it be fair to say the average gamer(i.e. someone who doesn't frequent forums) probably had no idea of this stuff?
The average gamer today probably has internet and googled Xbox one at least once after E3, if they did, they saw the avalanche of bad press.

Why do people think the average gamer is like a clueless sheltered 2d platform player.

Today even "parents" are informed because "parents" are gamers, back when I was a kid my folks weren't cause they didnt grow up with them. I did, and still do (I picked the console, not my kids, which wouldn't have happened when I was a kid). The average today is way more informed than 15-20 years ago.