tattooed_dwarf
Member
When is that Division Xbone bundle coming or is it just for MS Store?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
NPD Sales Results for December 2015 [Up1: Super Mario Maker]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
slavesnyder
Member
You are right. I remember this. But I guess Mass Effect still has more appeal in Japan than COD.
EA will release it on Xbox there. It will sell nothing, but they will.
slavesnyder
Member
Can you digit?
Steverulez
Member
Square2015
Member
RPG update?
CosmicQueso
Member
Not precisely. Conclusion is that the frequency of 80+ rated games is higher this gen versus time aligned prior on MS & Sony boxes. However, there are fewer 80+ rated games this gen versus last due to smaller release count, so depends on how you define "generally higher" in terms of meaning actual number of products at 80+ or the % of all titles released being 80+.
Well, here's the list. Some of them are re-releases, some are standalone software, some are season pass discs of games that aren't complete. Some are full games.
slavesnyder
Member
Okay, I see. Let's forget about my theory. The games really seem to be all over the place as Surfer estimated.
Thank you for all this work. You Excelled.
Obliterator
Member
Here's one thing that both Siege and Just Cause 3 have shown, and also Far Cry 3 a couple years ago. You can release a AAA game in December and still find some really nice success. A ton of Publishers try to push their games out in October and November, which I understand to take advantage of the "whole" holiday season, but you also face much stiffer competition releasing in those months. More devs and pubs should take a 2nd look at December for some of their flagship titles.
?
I have no idea how i got 52.14% but looks like you are right.
EDIT: Now i remember, this is all Rex fault, Damn you Rex!!! D:< /Jks
StrongBlackVine
Banned
I meant some markets lean so heavily towards PS4 it won't matter what Microsoft does in terms of marketing/bundles.
CosmicQueso
Member
So is this threadworthy info? Or would I just be asking for idiocy and aggravation?
Cornbread78
Member
Smash/Splatoon bundle sold 140k in november. December is unknown.
No, creamsugar numbers are without bundle.
Ahhh sorry the 4 was a typo. Mea culpa. Touch screen keyboards are the bane of my existence.
Well I think it is yeah. TBH I'm not sure how the GAF masses will react though. There's sure to be a lot of misinterpreting though. So you'd have to extremely deliberate with the wording of your title and OP. Your call.
slavesnyder
Member
If you have a sweet tooth for confused discussions go for it. It's a little abstract and you have to combine info to come to conclusions. That's a lot you ask for.
Etit:
@Rex: did you draw that?
This is beautiful.
serversurfer
Member
Yeah, I got that. Games of all grades have been lost, but it's mostly the crappy games, shifting the curve right. So while there aren't quite as many "instant classics" available, any game you pick at random is far less likely to be garbage.
I was actually just asking if the, " as compared to Gen7," I was assuming was actually being implied, but it seems it was. Sorry, I was uncharacteristicly vague. lol
Thanks again. That's actually more varied than I anticipated, figuring it'd be mostly the crap that got skipped.Well, here's the list. Some of them are re-releases, some are standalone software, some are season pass discs of games that aren't complete. Some are full games.
whynotboth.gif
Nah it's from one of my favorite websites: the "trex trying" tumblr.
You should check out the whole site.
Thanks allan, in Amazon they had the MK8+DLC Bundle pretty high while I don't know if there were mostly S/SSB, MK8+DLC or SMM Bundles at retailers.
CosmicQueso
Member
Yeah, on second thought. I'll just leave it for peeps here lol.
slavesnyder
Member
Xbox updates everything, even the RPG.
Haha, this is awesome. Maybe if you were a Spinosaurus, you could type better.
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Imagine it like Oracle of Ages/Seasons, except if you buy one you get a 50% discount on the other via digital. 3rd story as extra conent via DLC as a completely different path. Does that explanation work?
Nothing. ;_;
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Another $399 bundle. They really don't want these things to sell do they? I don't think the average consumer cares about the storage space, just the price. It's not even a limited edition.
serversurfer
Member
lol Yeah, most of the interested parties are probably already here* while it's late enough that most of those who have less to offer have moved on by now.
So then it sounds like mostly what isn't being sent to retail this gen is the mediocre-to-bad stuff, yes? My guess is that a lot of that old effort has now been refocused on indy development if we're just discussing the HD Twins, and mobile too if you wanna step back a bit and throw in the Wii->WiiU losses. Why continue pooling your efforts to make a middling retail release when you can split up and make something much nicer — even if much more "niche" — especially if you can eliminate a couple of middlemen in the process? (Your publisher and your retailer. Well, I guess the latter is more being replaced than eliminated, but it's still a gain for the dev.) Personally, I'm probably spending more overall this gen as I'm far more likely to take a flyer on three $20 indies than I am to drop $60 on a possibly mediocre, and almost certainly "broad appeal" retail release.
*Speaking of, I'ma repost this here…
US had a 61% share of Tier 1 coming out of the launch quarter. UK is easily Bone's strongest non-US market, but it seems to have fallen behind the US pace. We don't have recent data from the rest of Tier 1, but around the end of 2014, they were already behind the US. (UK was actually well ahead in late 2014, but has dropped off pretty dramatically since.) So US share of Tier 1 is certain to be up from 61% by some amount. Probably at least a couple of points given even UK appears down, but more than four would be a pretty large shift. 3% seems like a safe bet.
Tier 2 includes a fair number of countries, but we only have numbers out of Japan (65k) and China (71k in April). So those two have probably combined for less than 150k, and they probably represent the bulk of the Tier 2 sales, in much the same way US/UK make up the majority of Tier 1. With <150k for those two, at least 250k total for Tier 2 seems like a safe bet. Seems unlikely to be more than 500k though.
So, greener seems the more reasonable guesses based on the data we've seen, but take your pick, I suppose.
As a very lax sanity check, it seems like most or all of the green totals are something which someone with zero accountability and a presumably non-zero interest in making MS look good might describe to a journalist as "around 18 million." Probably also noteworthy that, "more than 18 million" wasn't used in that leak; a leak like that would more likely be generous than conservative.
Thoughts? 17.6M-17.9M seems neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic, I'd say. It seems unlikely to be any higher based on what Mary Jo was told, but we don't really have any direct evidence for it being substantially lower, I'd say.
Edit: Hey, George, any chance you can share LTDs from global NPD countries for end-of-2013 and also end-of-2015? It'd give us a much better idea of how Bone has kept pace overseas compared to the US. kthxbai <3
TheUnsunghero26
Member
I think this is true for Destiny, but it looks like both Sony and MS published Black Ops 3 in Japan for their respective systems.
Welfare
Member
Serversurfer, I'm not near a computer so I won't reply to all of that now, but that around 18 million rumor was in reference to MAU in December, not consoles sold.
Also Tier 2 being that low seems unlikely. At best for the other 27 countries, you're assuming they have only sold around 22k in 16 months. Russia alone had +15k pre-orders by launch back in September 2014. (Just remembered about this one http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=902108&page=1)
After this long, at worst I would think Tier 2 is at +1 million.
Also Tier 2 being that low seems unlikely. At best for the other 27 countries, you're assuming they have only sold around 22k in 16 months. Russia alone had +15k pre-orders by launch back in September 2014. (Just remembered about this one http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=902108&page=1)
After this long, at worst I would think Tier 2 is at +1 million.
ethomaz
Banned
Spain Tier 1 is possible below 100k yet and I don't believe Russia crossed 50k... these preorder are always something off... remember China preorders?
Why did you think Tier 2 countries accounts for more than 1m?
Welfare
Member
I'm thinking every tier 2 country has done at least half of Japan by now. and then adding Japan and China, that's about 1 million.
Also China had like 16k preorders at one retailer a couple of weeks before launch, and IIRC you did not even need to pay a cent to preorder, it was just a reservation system, and did 71k in 8 months.
ethomaz
Banned
I missed the 71k for China
Edit - Are you basing these 71k in the news about Sony selling 73k at launch month and overtake Xbone LTD? It was a rumor.... or are there any new info from China?
Edit 2 - I see... thanks.
Welfare
Member
The article that shared that released a pie graph that compared the PS4, XB1 and Vita sales.I missed the 71k for China
Edit - Are you basing these 71k in the fact Sony sold 73k at launch month and overtake Xbone LTD?
I missed the 71k for China
Edit - Are you basing these 71k in the news about Sony selling 73k at launch month and overtake Xbone LTD? It was a rumor.... or are there any new info from China?
http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1039330
serversurfer
Member
So now you're implying there's some significant number of people who don't even use their XBox One?? How dare you, sir?
Seriously though, you can't even play new games until you go online to get the required OS. It's not unreasonable to assume that basically all of the Bones which had been sold had also been taken online at least once in the previous month. More to the point, it's not unreasonable to assume that someone with an interest in making Bone and/or W10 adoption look good would consider that a reasonable assumption for an off-the-record comment. "We've sold nearly 19M and basically all of them are up-to-date," sounds way better than "Around 18M," doesn't it? So why not say that instead, especially when there's no way for anyone to check up on you?
And that last point is probably the most important. Surely you've noticed they tend to paint a much rosier picture than reality would dictate even when they are accountable, so I wouldn't put too much faith in to the idea that all of the Ts have been crossed in this anonymous comment. It's far more likely to be a (very) rough estimate of the total number of Bones sold rather than an accurate accounting of W10 MAU demographics for the previous month. We were also told, "Around 180M" computers. How much rounding do you suppose went in to that figure? Sounds very much like they just started with the 200M figure, subtracted roughly the number of consoles and phones sold, and that leaves about 180M computers, right?
Yes, there's some ambiguity there for you to cling to, but that's true of nearly everything MS say, so I wouldn't try to hang your hat on it if I were you.
Well, you say "Russia alone," but that's likely to be one of the largest remaining countries
And like I said before, I don't think those countries averaging half of what Japan does is a safe assumption at all. Is the Korean game market half the size of the Japanese one? How about the Danish and Greek markets? See where I'm coming from here? I think you're giving way too much credit to these markets. Again, there's a reason a lot of them slipped from Tier 1 in the first place.
StrongBlackVine
Banned
Lol, more comment about the lady in the third photo than the XB1 pre orders.
As it should be.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
The risk is retail.
If you launch in Oct and don't hit your day 1 goal, you can count on Black Friday to get you close or above your targets. The lift there is real.
If you miss that sales period, you better hope you have a solid product that's going to have a minimal decay, if you miss your day 1 you have no other guranteed sales sell thru spike. You head into periods with significantly less foot traffic to retailers so you have to create it.
Welfare
Member
Jesus CHRIST, not counting this sentence or any of the quotes/links, this was +1000 words. I have a typed up a fucking essay at like 11-12 o'clock. I swear if I have to do this again...
I went into my spreadsheets and decided to see how the ratio between the US and UK+Germany+France+Canada (estimating to 8% of the US) changed between LTD 2013, LTD 2014, and LTD 2015. For 2015 German+France data, seeing as we are missing those, I'm going to give them a similar range for YoY performance that the UK had in 2015 (a decrease of about 13% if the Xbox One is at 2.4m in the UK at the end of 2015. Any lower is a bit too extreme of a drop (>20% if 2.3m for example)), so I'll do about 15% drops for those.
LTD 2013
US = 1817K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~735k
Ratio is 71:29
LTD 2014
US = 6187K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~2692k
Ratio is 70:30
LTD 2015
US = 11131K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~4480k
Ratio is 71:29
So by the end of 2015, it basically has gone back to the 2013 ratio, assuming that Canada is only 8% of the US and that Germany and France experienced slightly worse YoY declines than UK. If the US share of Tier 1 changed at all, it would be at most 1 or maybe 2%.
So if 62-63:38-37
~17953K or 17668K (Just like in your table)
I'm thinking with extra months of sales for China, both are either at 150k combined or just slightly over. (So about 90k for China by the end of 2015 and we already know it sells better than Japan seeing as it launched 3 weeks later and was ahead of it by 40% by the end of April 2015 (71,063 for China and 50,618 for Japan according to Media Create).
Also there isn't anything to suggest that Japan and China are the majority of Tier 2 sales.
In fact, as I brought up earlier, a Tier 2 country like Russia had +15k pre orders for the system before it launched. Assuming it acted like Japan when it came to console legs after launch (15k at launch, no additional consoles besides pre ordered ones were sold) Russia alone is at ~37k (again, assuming that Russia suffered similar legs to that of Japan post launch, and to note, that would be an average of ~340 consoles sold every week for 66 weeks). That's already ~25% of that 150k number, and there are 26 more countries in Tier 2.
As I already posted, that "around 18 million" rumor was for the active online player base during December. That would not be all the consoles sold to consumers.
The water cooler just isn't popular to talk around anymore.
That's assuming that all units bought previous to December went online for whatever reason. According to WinBeta, which actually first got the news of over 200 million Win10 devices, that was posted on Dec 29. Now this is going into huge assumption territory, but if they got the leak on a Tuesday, the data most likely came in on Monday, so the 28th. Going back 28 days (including the 28th) that goes to Cyber Monday, or Nov 30. That is actually missing Black Friday, and any units that would've been activated and then went straight offline.
Again, not all units ever bought are going to be used online or even just used. Not millions, but around a portion of them. The PS4 had over 95% of its user base connected online back in June 2014. A year and a half later that would probably go down from more PS4's being used offline/PS4's just not being used anymore.
But let us apply that >95% to the Xbox One here (going to go a bit generous here and say 96%), tis the season to play multiplayer, but because of it being a bit over 2 years since launch, let's chop away about 1% for inactive console so 95% of the total Xbox Ones sold were connected online.
Assuming 18 million is accurate, that's about 18.95 million Xbox One's tamed, with about 190k not in use at all and about 770k not connected online during that specific time frame.
Does that seem reasonable?
Also, the leak/rumor is in reference to activated devices that run Win10 during a 28 day period. An extra 1 million Xbox Ones wouldn't be counted in that statistic because they would not be tracked.
Well, like in the original leak from WinBeta, the figure was over 200m, so rounding down would actually have to be accuring for "around" 180m computers. It's a baseline. How much rounding went into it? Fuck it if I know. Someone hook me up with the sweet leaks.
Damn you, making me do research and stuff.
According to this report, the Japanese gaming market reached 9.6 billion dollars in 2014. Of that 9.6 billion, only 3.2 billion is from dedicated video game hardware and software. The rest? Online gaming market which is "...content delivered through smartphones, tablets, feature phones and the PC."
I was unable to find similar data for those other regions you specified (however I think you were being rhetorical) so I have no comment on those one way or the other, however, a country like China was able to outperform Japan when it comes to Xbox One sales, and that market would be and is way more difficult to get sales for seeing as the ban on home consoles was only lifted recently and the grey market for those devices would be huge thanks to prices of the official consoles and general income for citizens in China.
Considering the situation in Japan with the Xbox One (brand never doing well there, barely any retailers even stocking the machine) I don't think the other countries doing at least half of Japan is an out of this world thought.
However, next week is the promised day. If we all pray to Lord MAU before bedtime every day, we could (and should) get MAU's for the Xbox One during the holidays.
Let us all pray, children.
I went into my spreadsheets and decided to see how the ratio between the US and UK+Germany+France+Canada (estimating to 8% of the US) changed between LTD 2013, LTD 2014, and LTD 2015. For 2015 German+France data, seeing as we are missing those, I'm going to give them a similar range for YoY performance that the UK had in 2015 (a decrease of about 13% if the Xbox One is at 2.4m in the UK at the end of 2015. Any lower is a bit too extreme of a drop (>20% if 2.3m for example)), so I'll do about 15% drops for those.
LTD 2013
US = 1817K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~735k
Ratio is 71:29
LTD 2014
US = 6187K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~2692k
Ratio is 70:30
LTD 2015
US = 11131K
UK+Germany+France+Canada = ~4480k
Ratio is 71:29
So by the end of 2015, it basically has gone back to the 2013 ratio, assuming that Canada is only 8% of the US and that Germany and France experienced slightly worse YoY declines than UK. If the US share of Tier 1 changed at all, it would be at most 1 or maybe 2%.
So if 62-63:38-37
~17953K or 17668K (Just like in your table)
I'm thinking with extra months of sales for China, both are either at 150k combined or just slightly over. (So about 90k for China by the end of 2015 and we already know it sells better than Japan seeing as it launched 3 weeks later and was ahead of it by 40% by the end of April 2015 (71,063 for China and 50,618 for Japan according to Media Create).
Also there isn't anything to suggest that Japan and China are the majority of Tier 2 sales.
In fact, as I brought up earlier, a Tier 2 country like Russia had +15k pre orders for the system before it launched. Assuming it acted like Japan when it came to console legs after launch (15k at launch, no additional consoles besides pre ordered ones were sold) Russia alone is at ~37k (again, assuming that Russia suffered similar legs to that of Japan post launch, and to note, that would be an average of ~340 consoles sold every week for 66 weeks). That's already ~25% of that 150k number, and there are 26 more countries in Tier 2.
So, greener seems the more reasonable guesses based on the data we've seen, but take your pick, I suppose.
As a very lax sanity check, it seems like most or all of the green totals are something which someone with zero accountability and a presumably non-zero interest in making MS look good might describe to a journalist as "around 18 million." Probably also noteworthy that, "more than 18 million" wasn't used in that leak; a leak like that would more likely be generous than conservative.
As I already posted, that "around 18 million" rumor was for the active online player base during December. That would not be all the consoles sold to consumers.
Still seems low. Looking to the AMD thread, once we get PS4 shipped numbers that should give us a pretty good range for what the Xbox One's shipments will be at by the end of 2015.
The water cooler just isn't popular to talk around anymore.
That's assuming that all units bought previous to December went online for whatever reason. According to WinBeta, which actually first got the news of over 200 million Win10 devices, that was posted on Dec 29. Now this is going into huge assumption territory, but if they got the leak on a Tuesday, the data most likely came in on Monday, so the 28th. Going back 28 days (including the 28th) that goes to Cyber Monday, or Nov 30. That is actually missing Black Friday, and any units that would've been activated and then went straight offline.
Again, not all units ever bought are going to be used online or even just used. Not millions, but around a portion of them. The PS4 had over 95% of its user base connected online back in June 2014. A year and a half later that would probably go down from more PS4's being used offline/PS4's just not being used anymore.
But let us apply that >95% to the Xbox One here (going to go a bit generous here and say 96%), tis the season to play multiplayer, but because of it being a bit over 2 years since launch, let's chop away about 1% for inactive console so 95% of the total Xbox Ones sold were connected online.
Assuming 18 million is accurate, that's about 18.95 million Xbox One's tamed, with about 190k not in use at all and about 770k not connected online during that specific time frame.
Does that seem reasonable?
Also, the leak/rumor is in reference to activated devices that run Win10 during a 28 day period. An extra 1 million Xbox Ones wouldn't be counted in that statistic because they would not be tracked.
Well, like in the original leak from WinBeta, the figure was over 200m, so rounding down would actually have to be accuring for "around" 180m computers. It's a baseline. How much rounding went into it? Fuck it if I know. Someone hook me up with the sweet leaks.
I don't own a hat
Damn you, making me do research and stuff.
According to this report, the Japanese gaming market reached 9.6 billion dollars in 2014. Of that 9.6 billion, only 3.2 billion is from dedicated video game hardware and software. The rest? Online gaming market which is "...content delivered through smartphones, tablets, feature phones and the PC."
I was unable to find similar data for those other regions you specified (however I think you were being rhetorical) so I have no comment on those one way or the other, however, a country like China was able to outperform Japan when it comes to Xbox One sales, and that market would be and is way more difficult to get sales for seeing as the ban on home consoles was only lifted recently and the grey market for those devices would be huge thanks to prices of the official consoles and general income for citizens in China.
Considering the situation in Japan with the Xbox One (brand never doing well there, barely any retailers even stocking the machine) I don't think the other countries doing at least half of Japan is an out of this world thought.
However, next week is the promised day. If we all pray to Lord MAU before bedtime every day, we could (and should) get MAU's for the Xbox One during the holidays.
Let us all pray, children.
No matter what side of the 18 mio anyone is on, I don't think the PS4 is a good comparison point for that specific aspect.
The PS4 can be fully used offline playing new games. The Xbox One can not be.
There was a switch on the Xbox One that hasn't been flipped yet, while the PS4 never had any switch.
Welfare
Member
There is only the one time internet connection needed for the Xbox One. After that, you don't need to go back online if you so desire, so I don't understand what you are trying to say.
How do you play the latest games, which require SDK functionality that wasn't present in November 2013, without an Internet connection?
Welfare
Member
Did that functionality become available in December, which makes these offline units useless?
I have to be clueless on this then, wouldn't newer units get that updated when they have to use the one time activation, and units that might've connected to the internet once before December get that as well? Is there even a case of an Xbox One that hasn't been connected since launch that can't play 2015 games, because I haven't heard of it.