NPD Sales Results for February 2014 [Up2: PS4/XB1/Wii U/360 Hardware, BD/Poke/DK]

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Aug 8, 2012
877
0
0
No, I was saying that in agreement with you.

Why would you buy a new product when you're already with Nike?
Totally agree on the worldwide perspective of that market, but is there a dominant performer in that section in Japan? I'm thinking this is something that would be targeted there, especially at launch.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Even in the domestic Japanese market you have a relative giant in NTT DoCoMo entering the wearable tech sector and pushing into health with smart clothing in the making.I think you put a lot of faith in what Iwata has said in the recent investor briefing... without him actually having done or shown anything towards this.
If you're talking about the reorganisation plan, it's already in act: it started last year, with the brand new building (now completed) where home and portable teams will work together, and that should be already operwtive (people already went there, IIRC) + continous investments and hirings.
 
Jul 27, 2009
24,815
0
0
My guess for "non-wearables"
  • a series of app-like software for your mobile and Nintendo hardware
  • you use it to enter various data thoughout the day, mild interaction but mostly just jotting things down
  • it generates a bunch of graphs and charts, and maybe makes recommendations
  • like BrainAge, it nags the hell out of you if you miss a few days
  • it's not a wearable, and since it is on so many devices is it always "with you"
 
Oct 25, 2012
2,513
0
0
You do realise you are comparing a game sold to 2011's install base to 2013's install base, right?
Yes, and you realize that the game released in 2011 has had more time to sell, right?

If anything, the PS4 version of Ground Zeroes are outselling the PS3 version in pre-orders (both in Amazon & in Gamestop), & the MGS series is far more popular on Playstation consoles than on Xbox consoles. Who in the world would want to pick up the weaker version over the superior version?
Dude, why do you keep saying this? NO ONE is debating this.

I have said a couple of times now (not sure why you're not getting it) that I wouldn't be surprised if the PS3 version of GZ outsold the PS4 version. I said NOTHING about the 360 or Xbox One versions. Understand????
 
Jul 19, 2005
3,715
0
0
According to their plan, Health is just one of the fields of their QoL platform, not the only one. Education is surely going to be another, don't know about what else. It'll be the first one, but not the only one.
Yes, we need more info about where Nintendo is going, and what they have planned. Education is a saturated market, maybe more so than Health. Competing with ABCmouse.com, not to mention all the programs available through the iPad, is a tall order. Maybe they would do better in Japan with that, but I imagine it's just as saturated there.

The concern about their historic inability to support more than one platform at time is legitimate, but they're doing a big reorganisation, so much that they've stated next consoles will take big inspiration from iOS and Android: NN is the real platform, with devices sharing OS, functions, architectures and also games (sincerly, it's the direction I hoped Nintendo would have went, and I'm very glad to see it in the making)
There's a lot of change that needs to occur to make that happen. I hope Nintendo is up to it.
 
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
Not specifically the reorganisation, but all the talk of a proper networked service focus and all of this QoL stuff. Doing and showing is worth a lot more than saying, and for a product that's meant to launch in a year and a half there's been very little of the former.
And that's why Nintendo is going over the wearable thing, and giving us a non-wearable!!!

How much till they unveil what a non-wearable is? Crap, I can't get what it could be
Again, you're putting far too much stock in a relatively meaningless term. It's just buzzwords at this point, and I don't really get where this idea comes from that it will be some astounding bolt from the blue. Putting "leapfrog" in a slide doesn't actually make it happen.

It will be:
Some sort of box or an assortment of boxes/devices tied to a base station. Since they're still seemingly tied to the idea of needing to integrate hardware and software, and control both facets of it.
Inexpensive, and presumably sold at a positive margin.
Use proprietary operating software and have a locked ecosystem.
Run proprietary software.
Probably re-purpose old technology that they've previously researched like the Vitality sensor, balance board, fit meter and so on.

Based on Nintendo's general modus operandi.
 
Jul 14, 2013
8,500
4
405
My guess for "non-wearables"
  • a series of app-like software for your mobile and Nintendo hardware
  • you use it to enter various data thoughout the day, mild interaction but mostly just jotting things down
  • it generates a bunch of graphs and charts, and maybe makes recommendations
  • like BrainAge, it nags the hell out of you if you miss a few days
  • it's not a wearable, and since it is on so many devices is it always "with you"
If that's what it is, they'll be absolutely slaughtered.

Hey Nintendo, I have a better idea for you. Make the 'Virtual Console' its own ecosystem across multiple devices and offer it on iOS and Android. Release your back catalog through it for the same prices you currently charge on Wii U and 3DS. Print an unimaginable amount of money for extremely little work.

That one's free, Nintendo.
 
Aug 19, 2006
25,598
1
0
My guess for "non-wearables"
  • a series of app-like software for your mobile and Nintendo hardware
  • you use it to enter various data thoughout the day, mild interaction but mostly just jotting things down
  • it generates a bunch of graphs and charts, and maybe makes recommendations
  • like BrainAge, it nags the hell out of you if you miss a few days
  • it's not a wearable, and since it is on so many devices is it always "with you"
The QoL platform is said to used Integrated Hardware and Software, so it's not going to rely on mobile devices, but may connect to them. I think it's more likely going to be something for your kitchen, bedroom or bathroom.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mar 10, 2011
22,885
0
855
28
theflyingthoughtsblog.wordpress.com
Well, the re-organisation is the main basis for having the devices sharing lots between each other, since now home and portable R&D teams are under the same roof. Further investments increases and hirings are a probable continuation of this + preparation for the QoL launch. They were talking about such a possibility since January 2013, but this January Iwata went more on the specifics, especially by putting Nintendo Network at the centre of their future and referencing iOS and Android as the examples they need to consider: of course we have to see the execution, that's what matters, but, so far, premises are good enough to hope they're getting it.

About the QoL platform, details were scarce probably because they were "obliged" to start talking about it now given the results: it's possible they were planning to reveal the existence itself and the first details at the same time, but the plan changed. You know, to give shareholders something to look instead of Wii U gigantic letdown :p

Still, don't get me wrong: I'm both interested and curious and worried about the QoL platform: knowing Nintendo, it could be crazy in both good and bad ways, even at the same times :lol, I was a little joking in my earlier post. It's just that, the sooner we know about it, the sooner we can start comprehending what they want to do...now, it's difficult to make concrete analysis.
 
And that's why Nintendo is going over the wearable thing, and giving us a non-wearable!!!

How much till they unveil what a non-wearable is? Crap, I can't get what it could be
Well, things like the iPhone which just go in your pocket now have a motion sensor co-processor which can be used for health and fitness activities, so it's more something you "carry" as opposed to "wear".

I'm kind of imagining it's something like that. However, they also said it might not be something you take outside your house IIRC, at which point it would seemingly just be something like a standalone Wii Fit or Billy Blanks Tai-Bo tapes.
 
Jul 30, 2007
53,089
0
0
29
Chicago
I wouldn't be surprised to see XB1 outsell the PS4 in March by a decent margin (30%-40%) given that supply is much higher, the new bundle, and just plain old hype for Titanfall. Second Son probably won't sell a lot consoles beyond what Sony is already going to sell given supply constraints anyway.

Going beyond March when supply should start catching up, it's going to be interesting to see if MS can keep momentum rolling.

If Sony still outsells Microsoft in March, well, that's a really, really bad sign and it could get ugly going forward unless E3 is full of huge announcements.
Huh 30% to 40%?

I don't think that is realistic at all.
 
Feb 16, 2010
14,234
0
0
Mars
I think a large part of the reason is due to the digital storefront, and I'm not talking about digital sales for retail titles, I'm talking about games only available through the digital sales front.

Until NPD covers this portion, I don't think it would be accurate to talk about software sales being down YoY.

FAKE EDIT: Wait, you aren't even talking about that lol. Sorry.

Though I did want to post something about software sales being down YoY.
Great point.
 
Jul 8, 2011
27,804
1
575
West Virginia
Wow, with those Vita sales, no wonder SCEA has relegated it to PS4 accessory and indie ports.

Sucks too, didn't they recently created a third party/localization team?

They should just focus on bringing Japanese games over, and maybe doing 2-3 big releases a year.
No, actually, it should be, "SCEA has relegated the vita to a PS4 accessory and indie ports. No wonder it has these sales." SCEA gave up on it a LONG time ago. These sales are just partially a byproduct of that.
 
The one metric that correlates most closely with the recent annual declines in packaged software sales is new release count.

Half the games were released in 2013 than were released in 2009.

As release count dwindles, sates per release generally creeps up. You get declines because the release count decrease is not offset by average sales increase.
Yeah I remember Gearbox going on about this a while ago about how the average sales of each title has been rising pretty healthily every year.

I imagine ARPU is way up given DLC and microtransactions as well.

I'm having trouble finding the article anymore though.
 
Nov 13, 2011
6,585
2
0
If that's what it is, they'll be absolutely slaughtered.

Hey Nintendo, I have a better idea for you. Make the 'Virtual Console' its own ecosystem across multiple devices and offer it on iOS and Android. Release your back catalog through it for the same prices you currently charge on Wii U and 3DS. Print an unimaginable amount of money for extremely little work.

That one's free, Nintendo.
That's the worst idea possible, and I hope more people wake up and realize just how moronic it is.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
5,102
0
0
I think 12k is someone's guesstimate.

Anyone have a post where this actually calculated?
I think it might be my fault. I had it as 10K in my YOY/GOG post. I think that may have gotten telephoned into 12K somehow.

To be completely clear, the only number we have is 175K for 3DS and PSV combined. We do not know how they were split.
 
May 24, 2012
18,812
119
500
I think it might be my fault. I had it as 10K in my YOY/GOG post. I think that may have gotten telephoned into 12K somehow.

To be completely clear, the only number we have is 175K for 3DS and PSV combined. We do not know how they were split.
Isn't it interesting how someone makes a guess (but people think it's a real number) and people over-react to it and it gets repeated down the line? You get all of this silliness from a misunderstanding.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Jun 22, 2004
9,164
5
1,485
cgmr.net
inb4 that's too high

edit: jvm and jcm? come on guys
Nope. It's higher than 12K.

Also, the other poster is clearly a typo. See how v and c are right beside each other on the keyboard? ;)

I think even a mod has confused the two of us before. It doesn't help that we're both in sales-age threads. :D

I think it might be my fault. I had it as 10K in my YOY/GOG post. I think that may have gotten telephoned into 12K somehow.

To be completely clear, the only number we have is 175K for 3DS and PSV combined. We do not know how they were split.
Even the base value you're using is kind of rough. *shrug* Where did it come from?
 
Jul 14, 2013
8,500
4
405
That's the worst idea possible, and I hope more people wake up and realize just how moronic it is.
The way I see it, Nintendo doesn't have many alternatives if they want to remain relevant in the gaming space 10 years from now. It's obviously not an optimal plan, but Nintendo is not in an optimal situation either. Them's the breaks.

Nintendo can either play the hand they've been dealt or risk fading into obscurity.

Steve Jobs wasn't thrilled about making iTunes available on Windows either. He fought with his VP's about it for a long time before finally giving in.

How'd that work out for Apple?
 
Mar 14, 2005
1,611
6
1,250
To see the complete collapse of handhelds in graphical form is just stunning. The 3DS is reasonably priced with tons of great games, and it has done nothing to stop the slide. And, remember, that's the GOOD side of Nintendo's business.

Nintendo has run at a loss for three straight years. Their current platforms are in trouble. They can't pay people to take their home console and their handheld is down 50% YOY.

They are facing major external challenges, namely the rise of mobile and strong competition from MS and Sony.

They also have a major internal challenge, which is even more dangerous to their future. That challenge is their own management. They operate in a bubble and are barely aware of the market conditions in their own country, much less the world. They do not understand their competitors. They fear change.

These are not challenges Nintendo can meet by just making great hardware and great software. If the company is to survive, they need strong strategic thinking and, above all, willingness to change.

The question Nintendo needs to answer is, what does a profitable Nintendo look like? Nintendo needs to provide a vision that includes answers to the following questions:

- Do they remain in the videogame business?
- Do they expand their IP licensing business and to what degree?
- Do they enter new markets, such as health?
- Do they manufacture their own home console?
- Do they manufacture their own handhelds?
- Do they release games for other people's dedicated systems?
- Do they release games for mobile?

Not "do you want to" do those things. But, "does a Nintendo that is profitable" do those things.

I think Nintendo has a bright future as a videogame developer and publisher. There can be a profitable Nintendo, but it will require very painful adjustments, including workforce reductions and exiting business lines.

I also think it's very likely that Nintendo's management will be unable to articulate a vision of a profitable future, unable to invent successful new business lines, and unwilling to take painful steps like leaving the hardware business. They will wait until they are at the brink of bankruptcy before making major changes.

By then, will it be too late to turn the company around? Every year they wait, it gets harder.
 
Mar 25, 2005
35,145
1
0
Canada
I wouldn't say that they did something really well with BD specifically (though it did have a big advertising push in of itself), so much as they've been doing a great job of fostering the genre on the 3DS over the past year. I think that promotion they did with FE:A and SMT4 did wonders for raising awareness for the genre on the system.
Maybe. I'm glad though. With over 200k sales, we won't have to wonder if the sequel will make it over.
 
Oct 27, 2013
7,712
0
0
Hampton Roads, VA
Isn't it interesting how someone makes a guess (but people think it's a real number) and people over-react to it and it gets repeated down the line? You get all of this silliness from a misunderstanding.
Regardless of the accuracy, that's still very low. They need to get Minecraft out, and quick. A green creeper Vita wouldn't hurt either.
 
Nov 13, 2011
6,585
2
0
The way I see it, Nintendo doesn't have many alternatives if they want to remain relevant in the gaming space 10 years from now. It's obviously not an optimal plan, but Nintendo is not in an optimal situation either. Them's the breaks.

Nintendo can either play the hand they've been dealt or risk fading into obscurity.

Steve Jobs wasn't thrilled about making iTunes available on Windows either. He fought with his VP's about it for a long time before finally giving in.

How'd that work out for Apple?
The difference is that Apple cornered the MP3 player market, and putting iTunes on PC allowed more consumers access. This is not the case for Nintendo. Putting their titles on other platforms will cripple hardware sales, in a way that they likely could never recover from. You'd basically sacrifice long term potential for short term growth, which is foolish at best and disastrous at worst.
 

jcm

Member
Dec 8, 2008
5,102
0
0
Isn't it interesting how someone makes a guess (but people think it's a real number) and people over-react to it and it gets repeated down the line? You get all of this silliness from a misunderstanding.
Sure is. Actually, the 10K wasn't even my guess. It was someone else's, and I thought it was a real number. Feel free to clear all the misunderstanding up. :)

Nope. It's higher than 12K.

Also, the other poster is clearly a typo. See how v and c are right beside each other on the keyboard? ;)

I think even a mod has confused the two of us before. It doesn't help that we're both in sales-age threads. :D

Even the base value you're using is kind of rough. *shrug* Where did it come from?
It came from creamsugar, though now that I look back he had it between 175 and 180. More telephone.

I'm glad you misspelled your name, so mine was still available when I registered. ;)

The difference is that Apple cornered the MP3 player market, and putting iTunes on PC allowed more consumers access. This is not the case for Nintendo. Putting their titles on other platforms will cripple hardware sales, in a way that they likely could never recover from. You'd basically sacrifice long term potential for short term growth, which is foolish at best and disastrous at worst.
You're assuming there's a profitable future selling dedicated handhelds.
 
Mar 10, 2014
14
0
0
I think it's important that the Xbox One keeps a strong momentum this year. Microsoft is definitely in this for the long haul and they have big plans for the platform over its lifetime. It's definitely going to change dramatically, perhaps even moreso than the 360 did.

I think they also desperately need to drop the price by at least $50. Ideally they would match Sony's $399 price, but I understand they aren't willing to sell at a loss this time around. I suspect we will see them drop the price by year end.

Regardless I actually think MSFT has succeeded in their vision for the X1. Their goal was NOT to build a gaming only box. They've said this multiple times, over and over again. The X1 is designed to be a balanced system that can play games, apps, etc (hence the hypervisor OS design). I don't think they need to match the PS4 graphically at all, but they do need to close the gap enough so that the differences are relatively minute for cross platform titles.
 
Jul 19, 2005
3,715
0
0
The difference is that Apple cornered the MP3 player market, and putting iTunes on PC allowed more consumers access. This is not the case for Nintendo. Putting their titles on other platforms will cripple hardware sales, in a way that they likely could never recover from. You'd basically sacrifice long term potential for short term growth, which is foolish at best and disastrous at worst.
I think there is a difference between trying to monetize the virtual console by expanding it's reach versus abandoning hardware totally.

The virtual console is available for both the WiiU and the 3DS. How much is it helping sales? Honestly, I don't think it is a major factor as it is now. I think a selection of NES and SNES virtual console games on new platforms could be a significant revenue stream, without necessarily cutting into hardware sales.

As long as you continue with exclusive current generation software development, which should be the primary draw for your hardware.
 
Jul 14, 2013
8,500
4
405
The difference is that Apple cornered the MP3 player market, and putting iTunes on PC allowed more consumers access. This is not the case for Nintendo. Putting their titles on other platforms will cripple hardware sales, in a way that they likely could never recover from. You'd basically sacrifice long term potential for short term growth, which is foolish at best and disastrous at worst.
Putting their titles on other platforms would cripple hardware sales? Their hardware sales are already crippled. And trending for worse.

Putting their titles on other platforms would sacrifice long term potential? There is no long term potential. Not with their current strategy.

I'd love to live in a fantasy land where people still gave a shit about Nintendo and wanted to buy dedicated handhelds. Unfortunately I live in the real world. Nintendo should visit sometime.

To see the complete collapse of handhelds in graphical form is just stunning. The 3DS is reasonably priced with tons of great games, and it has done nothing to stop the slide. And, remember, that's the GOOD side of Nintendo's business.

Nintendo has run at a loss for three straight years. Their current platforms are in trouble. They can't pay people to take their home console and their handheld is down 50% YOY.

They are facing major external challenges, namely the rise of mobile and strong competition from MS and Sony.

They also have a major internal challenge, which is even more dangerous to their future. That challenge is their own management. They operate in a bubble and are barely aware of the market conditions in their own country, much less the world. They do not understand their competitors. They fear change.

These are not challenges Nintendo can meet by just making great hardware and great software. If the company is to survive, they need strong strategic thinking and, above all, willingness to change.

The question Nintendo needs to answer is, what does a profitable Nintendo look like? Nintendo needs to provide a vision that includes answers to the following questions:

- Do they remain in the videogame business?
- Do they expand their IP licensing business and to what degree?
- Do they enter new markets, such as health?
- Do they manufacture their own home console?
- Do they manufacture their own handhelds?
- Do they release games for other people's dedicated systems?
- Do they release games for mobile?

Not "do you want to" do those things. But, "does a Nintendo that is profitable" do those things.

I think Nintendo has a bright future as a videogame developer and publisher. There can be a profitable Nintendo, but it will require very painful adjustments, including workforce reductions and exiting business lines.

I also think it's very likely that Nintendo's management will be unable to articulate a vision of a profitable future, unable to invent successful new business lines, and unwilling to take painful steps like leaving the hardware business. They will wait until they are at the brink of bankruptcy before making major changes.

By then, will it be too late to turn the company around? Every year they wait, it gets harder.
Extremely well said.