NPD Sales Results for February 2014 [Up2: PS4/XB1/Wii U/360 Hardware, BD/Poke/DK]

LegendofLex

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Thats the problem that Nintendo faces now though. Increase cost of software development but less overall sales on the platform. Whats the give point? I dont pretend to understand what that would be, but it is a very real worry for Nintendo in their strongest market.
I don't think 3DS ever really recovered from the damage done by its starting year. The emphasis on 3D games (which has been a suicide venture for Nintendo on basically every device where they've pushed it) followed up by unexciting versions of stuff they already did on DS (is anyone shocked NSMB/Brain Age/Nintendogs/etc. didn't sell gangbusters? none of those games looked interesting) basically killed any chance the thing had.

Wii U is basically a repeat of that, but with Japanese-styled games (TW101, Nintendo Land, Wind Waker, Super Mario Cat World, Pikmin) instead of 3D games (with the exception of 3D World, obviously) and mostly unexciting redux versions of software from Wii/3DS instead of software from DS.

nobody did, they didnt see similar jumps for the 360,ps3 etc coming either
That actually didn't surprise me too much. Nothing significant came out in Jan, but Lego Movie came out in Feb ;)
 

Biker19

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I don't think 3DS ever really recovered from the damage done by its starting year. The emphasis on 3D games (which has been a suicide venture for Nintendo on basically every device where they've pushed it) followed up by unexciting versions of stuff they already did on DS (is anyone shocked NSMB/Brain Age/Nintendogs/etc. didn't sell gangbusters? none of those games looked interesting) basically killed any chance the thing had.

Wii U is basically a repeat of that, but with Japanese-styled games (TW101, Nintendo Land, Wind Waker, Super Mario Cat World, Pikmin) instead of 3D games (with the exception of 3D World, obviously) and mostly unexciting redux versions of software from Wii/3DS instead of software from DS.
Exactly. 3DS & Wii U are just starting to be a exact repeat off of PSP & PS Vita: Remakes, ports, remakes, ports, & even more remakes & ports off of games that were already available elsewhere.
 

plasmawave

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You can always cut framerate and resolution.

Right now the PS4 titles target 1080p / 60 FPS. The same titles can run on the XB1 by dropping to 30 FPS or 720p. My concern is that in the future some games may target 720p / 30 FPS on the PS4, leaving the XB1 to run at something even lower.
Your lack of faith in the cloud and DX12 is disturbing!
 

kswiston

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Exactly. 3DS & Wii U are just starting to be a exact repeat off of PSP & PS Vita: Remakes, ports, remakes, ports, & even more remakes & ports off of games that were already available elsewhere.
Hasn't that been every handheld ever? Other than the odd Pokemon, they have always been filled with Remakes and down-ports of console games.

Lets not pretend the GBA was some bastion of originality in comparison. The big issue is that Nintendo has lost a lot of their under 13 demographic, along with the people who jumped on for Brain Training, Sudoku, etc last generation.
 

Chobel

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Let me stop you right there.

Plausible =/= probable. I am not saying "Xbox One will continue to close the weekly gap." I am just saying that it is possible because we have already seen it happen.

I didn't think it would see nearly the jump it did in Feb back in Jan, but watching the month play out made it seem more and more likely. So I would not be surprised if that trend continues, given that Titanfall is likely to be a more significant exclusive than anything on the platform so far.
My bad then. If we're talking about the Plausibility, then sure, it's plausible that this trend will continue in the future, after all anything is possible.

1) Sure, but I think it's safe to say that if PS4 is seeing growth this generation, it is because of cannibalized sales from Xbox due to the horrendous missteps MS took last year. So it's interesting that the demand isn't more slanted (or, to put it another way, that consumers don't really appear to be that anti-Xbox/dedicated to getting a PS4 instead).
One of the reasons but not the only reason.

Also the demand for Xbox One sure increased in Feb but that doesn't mean the demand for PS4 has decreased in Feb (or increased for that matter) and that's because the low supply of PS4 makes it harder (impossible?) to know the actual demand.
2) Including free games would actually mask the actual software demand (true "demand" requires "sales").
Source for bolded text? Because imo software demand means people wanting to play games whether they're getting for free or paying for it, so if someone found games that he likes for free and worthy of his time, why does he need to pay for other games?
 

BotoxAgent

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PS4 the top seller on Amazon and GameStop during titanfalls launch, Titanfall has since dropped. What kind of bump are people expecting?
MS really needs Titanfall to give them a good boost, at least even for a month or two. Sony seems to be just coasting by with specs, price, and consumer goodwill and it's been going a long way. And Sony hasn't even brought in the big guns yet.
 

shwimpy

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MS really needs Titanfall to give them a good boost, at least even for a month or two. Sony seems to be just coasting by with specs, price, and consumer goodwill and it's been going a long way. And Sony hasn't even brought in the big guns yet.
Isn't inFAMOUS their biggest gun this year? Don't see Uncharted coming out this year and The Order is a new IP.
 

TechnicPuppet

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PS4 the top seller on Amazon and GameStop during titanfalls launch, Titanfall has since dropped. What kind of bump are people expecting?
Aren't those charts always completely wrong. For example was the XB1 neck and neck with the PS4 during February on those charts or consistently miles behind?
 

Chobel

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PS4 the top seller on Amazon and GameStop during titanfalls launch, Titanfall has since dropped. What kind of bump are people expecting?
Give it few more days to know the actual effects of Titanfall on Xbone sales. It's been just the 4th day since its release.
 

Pain

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Give it few more days to know the actual effects of Titanfall on Xbone sales. It's been just the 4th day since its release.
I think most of the people who wanted Titanfall bought the Xbox Obe on anticipation of it. They also pre-ordered the game. I expect to see Titanfall fall out of the top 10 on Amazon and Ganestop within a week.
 

theprodigy

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Aren't those charts always completely wrong. For example was the XB1 neck and neck with the PS4 during February on those charts or consistently miles behind?
well, Amazon rankings:

January
PS4-3rd
XB1-16th (?)

February
PS4-3rd
XB1 (w/ Forza)-23rd
XB1 (w/ Titanfall)-71st, not that I think these count for NPD (?)
(for fun, Bravely Default was 8th and LR PS3 was 27th)

Amazon's Best Seller charts are always updated each hour.
I think what he's trying to say is that Amazon rankings by themselves are not necessarily indicative of what's happening
of course, when you also have multiple other sources that back it up, then it starts to look serious
 

aTTckr

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MS really needs Titanfall to give them a good boost, at least even for a month or two. Sony seems to be just coasting by with specs, price, and consumer goodwill and it's been going a long way. And Sony hasn't even brought in the big guns yet.
Yeah it's crazy they have one of their big exclusives coming up in little more than a week and they don't really advertise for it. I guess as long as they every shipment is immediately sold through, spending money on marketing isn't necessary.
 

ZSaberLink

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I think one of Nintendo's huge problems is the price of software AND (to an extent) the price of the hardware.

What I see from the hardware side is the original 3DS - good size/form factor, lots of weird issues (clicking, smears, etc.)
3DS XL - better battery life, good form factor and HW, but very large and more expensive
2DS - cheap but functional

For anyone trying to compare the GBA to the 3DS in NA, that's a bad comparison in all honesty. The GBA in 3 years in the US did RIDICULOUSLY well (23m). GBA & 3DS are about equal in Europe, and the 3DS is easily ahead in Japan (the 3DS will beat the GBA's Japanese LTD soon).

These are the things I think Nintendo should think about for their next handheld.
1. No expensive gimmicks (aka no 3D). - I think the 2DS shows this
2. Cheap Hardware (I think the GBA launched at $99, $250 that the 3DS launched at was ridiculous) - once again the 2DS hints at this but isn't quite there yet
3. Cheaper Software - This might be achieved by having a range of prices & using the eShop - it looks like they're experimenting with new business models through the eShop
4. Better Battery Life - I haven't heard Nintendo mention this, but this would be a reason that folks would use a dedicated portable over a phone. If when going on a flight, you could guarantee your new "4DS" or w/e would last 10 hours of play time as opposed to the 3-4 hours you can afford on your phone, you might be tempted to carry around this second device. I personally the Kindle is a great example of a specialized device that works and Nintendo should look at when thinking about their next handheld. In the Kindle's case, you can read books more pleasantly on the device, it's light, and it has a ridiculous battery life!
 

Biker19

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Hasn't that been every handheld ever? Other than the odd Pokemon, they have always been filled with Remakes and down-ports of console games.

Lets not pretend the GBA was some bastion of originality in comparison. The big issue is that Nintendo has lost a lot of their under 13 demographic, along with the people who jumped on for Brain Training, Sudoku, etc last generation.
I know they had, just not to an extreme extent like it is right now, especially with 3rd party games.
 

LegendofLex

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My bad then. If we're talking about the Plausibility, then sure, it's plausible that this trend will continue in the future, after all anything is possible.
Basically. If you asked me what I thought would happen in November, I would have thought that PS4 would win by a landslide in all regions (with Japan having the smallest lead, followed by the U.S.). That's not what's happening. I never thought Xbox One would do "terribly," but I'm surprised by its recovery last month and Titanfall seems like it could keep that going (whereas I'm not hugely confident in inFAMOUS).

One of the reasons but not the only reason.
What other reason could there be at this point? Is the PS4 library what's making it sell better? Or is the PS4 just better-positioned?

Also the demand for Xbox One sure increased in Feb but that doesn't mean the demand for PS4 has decreased in Feb (or increased for that matter) and that's because the low supply of PS4 makes it harder (impossible?) to know the actual demand.
I don't know what the demand for PS4 is. What I do know is that Xbox demand is increasing at a surprising rate, while increases in PS4 demand are limited. Of course, PS4 demand could be explained by the limited supply...but that doesn't explain PS4's weaker game sales.

Since historically software has been the key driver of hardware sales, that makes me skeptical that PS4 initial demand is going to translate to long-term demand. Maybe the PS4 demand came from the anti-Xbox hype (which doesn't appear to be having as large an effect at this point), and now people are starting to get over it.

Source for bolded text? Because imo software demand means people wanting to play games whether they're getting for free or paying for it, so if someone found games that he likes for free and worthy of his time, why does he need to pay for other games?
Demand is about purchasing habits. If it's free, there is no purchase involved, thus you can't measure "demand" in the market sense. Of course, those free games could be driving hardware sales... but then I think you'd see Sony talking about their install bases, not just Killzone's. I don't get the impression that all the free games on PS4 come anywhere close to adding up to the relevance Wii Sports had in society.
 

GoofsterStud

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Aren't those charts always completely wrong. For example was the XB1 neck and neck with the PS4 during February on those charts or consistently miles behind?
You mean the time Xbox one outsold ps4 when the gears of war info dropped for the beginning of feb, or the Xbox One whinnig nearly a week because of both ps4 shipments? I guess I fail to see your point.
 

TechnicPuppet

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You mean the time Xbox one outsold ps4 when the gears of war info dropped for the beginning of feb, or the Xbox One whinnig nearly a week because of both ps4 shipments? I guess I fail to see your point.
No they are above look at them. XB1 is miles behind the PS4 despite selling a little bit less. in February.

It's closer in January when it sold a lot less. The charts are useless.
 
Sep 6, 2007
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Aren't those charts always completely wrong. For example was the XB1 neck and neck with the PS4 during February on those charts or consistently miles behind?
I buy into the theory that Xbone is just so easy to find everywhere that sells game consoles. Why buy through Amazon when you can easily pick up an Xbone at your nearest game retailer? After all, we've determined after Microsoft's last sold/shipped numbers that there were hundreds of thousands of Xbones sitting on store shelves. Also, a lot of stores were effectively selling Xbones below retail, like Target giving $50 gift cards with an Xbone purchase, or Costco selling them for $479. Amazon was actually one of the worst places to buy an Xbone last month, with everyone else offering deals.
 

GoofsterStud

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No they are above look at them. XB1 is miles behind the PS4 despite selling a little bit less. in February.

It's closer in January when it sold a lot less. The charts are useless.
If you followed the hourly where preorders count. Xbox was on top during Feb quite a few times. If you follow the monthly preorders don't get tracked until the transaction happens.
 

Mrbob

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Amazon was a bad metric last month because it was one of the few retailers not running any type of XB1 promotion.
 

theprodigy

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I buy into the theory that Xbone is just so easy to find everywhere that sells game consoles. Why buy through Amazon when you can easily pick up an Xbone at your nearest game retailer? After all, we've determined after Microsoft's last sold/shipped numbers that there were hundreds of thousands of Xbones sitting on store shelves. Also, a lot of stores were effectively selling Xbones below retail, like Target giving $50 gift cards with an Xbone purchase, or Costco selling them for $479. Amazon was actually one of the worst places to buy an Xbone last month, with everyone else offering deals.
I'm going with this, getting an Xbox One off Amazon hasn't made sense recently from a price/convenience perspective
 

FroJay

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A very interesting NPD. Signs of life from Xbone, but you have to wonder if PS4 is still supply constrained which made for an even closer gap between the two? PS4 needs to start putting out quality software now that we're well beyond the launch Window. Infamous is great, but they need more heavy hitters to follow.
 

TechnicPuppet

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I buy into the theory that Xbone is just so easy to find everywhere that sells game consoles. Why buy through Amazon when you can easily pick up an Xbone at your nearest game retailer? After all, we've determined after Microsoft's last sold/shipped numbers that there were hundreds of thousands of Xbones sitting on store shelves. Also, a lot of stores were effectively selling Xbones below retail, like Target giving $50 gift cards with an Xbone purchase, or Costco selling them for $479. Amazon was actually one of the worst places to buy an Xbone last month, with everyone else offering deals.
That makes sense to me, but I don't think Thief Gold was the #1 selling product in Feb either. The chart makes no sense. If you click 2013 PS4 is #6. No chance that's true.
 

TS-08

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People really need to start ignoring them in that case.
I think the rankings are probably skewed by a larger percentage of consumers turning to Amazon to buy the PS4 since they had no alternative as far as actual stores are concerned. Once the supply stops being a problem, it will probably be a little bit better indicator (by no means perfect). I think it is probably pretty reliable as far as comparing games, particularly multiplats. I have no doubt the difference in rankings among the next gen systems is indicative of how the sales will look between them.
 
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A very interesting NPD. Signs of life from Xbone, but you have to wonder if PS4 is still supply constrained which made for an even closer gap between the two? PS4 needs to start putting out quality software now that we're well beyond the launch Window. Infamous is great, but they need more heavy hitters to follow.
Is it really a questions of if? Nowinstock last month was hardly showing ps4 in stock.
 

FroJay

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Is it really a questions of if? Nowinstock last month was hardly showing ps4 in stock.
You're right, there definitely seems to be an issue with supply at this point. I wonder what the numbers would be without that supply constraint? Would it still be close?
 

Chobel

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What other reason could there be at this point? Is the PS4 library what's making it sell better? Or is the PS4 just better-positioned?
Mainly price with an added bonus of being more powerful console (better multipats).

I don't know what the demand for PS4 is. What I do know is that Xbox demand is increasing at a surprising rate, while increases in PS4 demand are limited. Of course, PS4 demand could be explained by the limited supply...but that doesn't explain PS4's weaker game sales.
Two Three explanations:
1) I said it before, there's PS+ free games and F2P games.
2) Another explanation that I read in Gaf (Cheesh IIRC): Xbox owners are usually richer because they can afford Xbox ($500) easily.
3) Lately Xbox purchases were either bundled with some game or offered with free gift cards ( = free games), these softwares are probably included in NPD numbers.

Since historically software has been the key driver of hardware sales, that makes me skeptical that PS4 initial demand is going to translate to long-term demand. Maybe the PS4 demand came from the anti-Xbox hype (which doesn't appear to be having as large an effect at this point), and now people are starting to get over it.
lol, you think people bought PS4 to spite MS? anti-Xbox hype would only affect Xbox demand, and if it had an impact on Ps4 demand it would be minimal. People buy consoles because they like these consoles, not because they hate the other console.

Demand is about purchasing habits. If it's free, there is no purchase involved, thus you can't measure "demand" in the market sense. Of course, those free games could be driving hardware sales... but then I think you'd see Sony talking about their install bases, not just Killzone's.
What do you mean by the bold text?

Anyway Even If we assume Xbox has better software attach rate, what does this have to do with demand?
 

Jomjom

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Two explanations:
1) I said it before, there's PS+ free games and F2P games.
2) Another explanation that I read in Gaf (Cheesh IIRC): Xbox owners are usually richer because they can afford Xbox ($500) easily.
I think the first reason is valid, but the second I don't buy.

The 360 was the cheaper console all last gen and had a much better attach rate than the PS3. I think it's just that gamers who skew towards MS are more hardcore gamers. I know on my own friendlist a load of my friends who bought PS3s would go 3-4 months between sign ins.
 

LegendofLex

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Mainly price with an added bonus of being more powerful console (better multipats).
Price doesn't seem to be a huge barrier in the U.S. so far.

1) I said it before, there's PS+ free games and F2P games.
So Sony is losing software revenues because their customers are choosing free games instead? You're not really making PS4 look any better, here.

Another explanation that I read in Gaf (Cheesh IIRC): Xbox owners are usually richer because they can afford Xbox ($500) easily.
That's nice, but like the above point it just reiterates that Xbox might actually be the stronger (see: more profitable) business.

Lately Xbox purchases were either bundled with some game or offered with free gift cards ( = free games), these softwares are probably included in NPD numbers.
But, of course, the PS4 bundles don't count, right?

lol, you think people bought PS4 to spite MS? anti-Xbox hype would only affect Xbox demand, and if it had an impact on Ps4 demand it would be minimal. People buy consoles because they like these consoles, not because they hate the other console.
Multi-platform sales dominating the software charts make a pretty good case for the audiences being remarkably similar. So I think you have people choosing between PS4 and Xbox. The PR screwups seemed to suggest a mass exodus from Xbox might be in store - customers who still want a Gen 8 box but no longer trust MS.

What do you mean by the bold text?

Anyway Even If we assume Xbox has better software attach rate, what does this have to do with demand?
If PS4 is not selling because of software demand (which you can measure by the amount of money people spend to play the games)... why is it selling? Because of launch hype? Because of bad PR from Microsoft? What happens when the hype dries up? Will the software still sell systems as strongly as Xbox software seems to have been driving Xbox sales?
 
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They won't tho. 30% will get Titanfall, and something like 15 - 20% inFamous.
I'm actually kind of expecting Titanfall to be really frontloaded.

I expect 40% of One owners, which should be around 1.2 million people in March to buy the title first month. And for it to be all but irrelevant the next.

I haven't played it, but (and this is just my opinion, disagree all you want) the hype for it in the media doesn't seem genuine. Some GAFers seem to really love it though, and I'll be the first to admit if I'm wrong.
 

Chobel

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Price doesn't seem to be a huge barrier in the U.S. so far.
PS4 is still number 1.

So Sony is losing software revenues because their customers are choosing free games instead? You're not really making PS4 look any better, here.

That's nice, but like the above point it just reiterates that Xbox might actually be the stronger (see: more profitable) business.
???
I'm only giving you reasons to PS4 weaker software sales.

But, of course, the PS4 bundles don't count, right?
There's no PS4 bundles in US. Also bundled games and free gift cards with Xbox purchases are free.

Multi-platform sales dominating the software charts make a pretty good case for the audiences being remarkably similar. So I think you have people choosing between PS4 and Xbox. The PR screwups seemed to suggest a mass exodus from Xbox might be in store - customers who still want a Gen 8 box but no longer trust MS.
OK, but most people will choose PS4 because of the price. Marketing can alter that though(See CoD and BF4)

If PS4 is not selling because of software demand (which you can measure by the amount of money people spend to play the games)... why is it selling? Because of launch hype? Because of bad PR from Microsoft? What happens when the hype dries up? Will the software still sell systems as strongly as Xbox software seems to have been driving Xbox sales?
PS4 is selling because of software, it's just some of the software comes for free, and 2.1 is till a good software attach rate this early.
 
Jul 31, 2007
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Price doesn't seem to be a huge barrier in the U.S. so far.



So Sony is losing software revenues because their customers are choosing free games instead? You're not really making PS4 look any better, here.



That's nice, but like the above point it just reiterates that Xbox might actually be the stronger (see: more profitable) business.



But, of course, the PS4 bundles don't count, right?



Multi-platform sales dominating the software charts make a pretty good case for the audiences being remarkably similar. So I think you have people choosing between PS4 and Xbox. The PR screwups seemed to suggest a mass exodus from Xbox might be in store - customers who still want a Gen 8 box but no longer trust MS.



If PS4 is not selling because of software demand (which you can measure by the amount of money people spend to play the games)... why is it selling? Because of launch hype? Because of bad PR from Microsoft? What happens when the hype dries up? Will the software still sell systems as strongly as Xbox software seems to have been driving Xbox sales?
Kind of jumping all over the place here.

I'd say I wouldn't consider the PS4's software tie ratio as bad. Currently better margins than they had against MS last gen. And right now it's not like it's just hardware selling the system. It's more the idea that for $100 less you're almost guaranteed to get the better running versions of 3rd party software, and a range of exclusive software you won't find anywhere else.

This means little if Sony doesn't meet the demand. At this point I kind of wonder what that is. Where their top is.

If they ship 500,000 units to America will they all sell? I'm kind of excited to see where the top of this system is. Given interest around the world though we might never see the top in America. With Japan not buying in to any large degree that does give us a better chance though.
 

Lumyst

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tl;dr: NPD guys learn to take Amazon rankings with a grain of salt, just like Media Create (and PAL) regulars
It's taken about half a year and a holiday season of seeing sales threads for me to realize it's a lost cause for me to try and predict what the market will respond to, what companies will do, etc. but I'm still guilty of checking the Amazon rankings on random days and thinking they mean something, since it's so easy to do :p

I'm happy for Bravely Default and hope that means Nintendo feels right about continuing to provide games for people with those tastes on their consoles
(they better not switch Monolithsoft's focus from JRPGs to QOL!!!)
. I chose to buy Tropical Freeze first rather than Bravely Default, though. Many people I spot passed at college had the Bravely Default demo, and I'm seeing that they now have the Bravely Default game last played. Maybe that demo spurred some 3ds owners to get acclimated with the eShop. I think Donkey Kong will have legs though, it would be unfair to expect the people who bought 3D World to spend $50 so soon after the holidays.

\/ For some reason, that reminds me of how shocked I was at how "dense" the PS4 was when I set it up. It also lacks a power brick, so it was simply a matter of plugging in the HDMI and the power cord. It was way more simple than setting up the WiiU and its two power bricks and its sensor bar along with its HDMI cable. The WiiU looks like a little test subject with so much stuff connected to it compared to the PS4 :p I know Nintendo was going for the "stage hand" that is out of the way, for simple and unobtrusive, but it's funny how many things came along with that little stage hand and the gamepad (two stands, its own power cord/brick).

But yes, more mass of Xbox One may have been sold ;-)
 

SmokyDave

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Which console is selling more by volume?

I mean, just because the numbers say the PS4 is selling more, that doesn't mean that the XBone can't be selling more, y'know what I mean?

Someone needs to calculate the cubic inches at play because I have a feeling that MS might be the real winners here.
 

TS-08

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Which console is selling more by volume?

I mean, just because the numbers say the PS4 is selling more, that doesn't mean that the XBone can't be selling more, y'know what I mean?

Someone needs to calculate the cubic inches at play because I have a feeling that MS might be the real winners here.
Brb going to put my XB1 in the bath to measure volume.