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[Cheech]

Not gone, so much as badly in deed of fresh concepts and ideas. Like consoles, they need to make them into one stop, all around good entertainment devices.

People already own those, they're called smartphones.

For the vast, vast majority of people, they are "good enough" for their on the go gaming needs. People do not want to carry around two redundant devices, especially since the gaming handheld is the functionality loser of the pair.

Dedicated gaming handhelds are dead. There's a chart that somebody put up on GAF a while back tracking what happened to the sales of dedicated gaming handhelds when the iPhone launched. It didn't move the needle much, at first, but when prices of those phones fell in line with gaming handhelds? It was a very sharp decrease in sales.

The worst thing Nintendo or Sony could do is make another "me too" tablet or phone focused on games. Put your IP on the stuff that already sells or watch it depreciate into the toilet. Ain't no room for pride in business.

 

[spookyfish]

Just imagine how bad the situation would be if we didn't have a Powerhouse™ leading the way.

I see it as in The Matrix: "There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept."

This will be the new normal. I personally don't think we'll see any more "100 million sold" for any single handheld or console. Of course, I hope I'm wrong, but I think mobile and PC are making too much of a push into the space.

I'm not saying there's going to be a crash, or anything; just that games makers will have to be content with a smaller overall pie.

 

[Mpl90]

Really makes me wonder why people seem to be locked to the idea that there will be a handheld successor to the 3DS.

Because...there will be? XD

The only "concession" I can make is that it could be an handheld that can be a phone too, but we're certainly going to see the 3DS successor in the next few years.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Not gone, so much as badly in deed of fresh concepts and ideas. Like consoles, they need to make them into one stop, all around good entertainment devices.

So...make them smartphones? Personally I'd love to see Nintendo do something like that. Imagine the apps they could make w/ their franchises ....

No chance in hell that Infamous is more popular than Tomb Raider. The last TR game sold very well (even though it didn't meet SE's expections). The last Infamous game sold 1.65M worldwide. It's not even comparable.

But Tomb Raider is available on 5 platforms (PS3, 360, PS4, XBO, PC), so on average that's 1 million each. InFamous is on one platform, and by your own words sold 1.65 mil.

Looks like InFamous carries more weight in the gaming space to me.

 

[Nirolak]

Because otherwise Nintendo will be out of the hardware market entirely.

Yeah, they were willing to put out the Wii U without a great plan, so I don't see any reason they would not at least give handhelds one more go.

The 3DS is still shipping a non-trivial amount of units overall, so the audience doesn't seem to have completely evaporated/moved on to other platforms yet, like the Wii audience already has.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

People already own those, they're called smartphones.

For the vast, vast majority of people, they are "good enough" for their on the go gaming needs. People do not want to carry around two redundant devices, especially since the gaming handheld is the functionality loser of the pair.

Dedicated gaming handhelds are dead. There's a chart that somebody put up on GAF a while back tracking what happened to the sales of dedicated gaming handhelds when the iPhone launched. It didn't move the needle much, at first, but when prices of those phones fell in line with gaming handhelds? It was a very sharp decrease in sales.

The worst thing Nintendo or Sony could do is make another "me too" tablet or phone focused on games. Put your IP on the stuff that already sells or watch it depreciate into the toilet. Ain't no room for pride in business.

Yeah I agree. Bring those games to the App Store

 

[sTaTIx]

I don't know what to think anymore. March NPD can't come soon enough, this debate will finally have a conclusion and we should get a better idea of where the X1 is heading. I also think Titanfall won't have the huge effect people are expecting (I'd say the X1 will do around the same as this month, maybe up to 300k or so), but I honestly have no idea what to expect at this point. Really wish we knew the X1s WW sales though.

Check your toilet.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Because...there will be? XD

The only "concession" I can make is that it could be an handheld that can be a phone too, but we're certainly going to see the 3DS successor in the next few years.

I don't know what the point of that would be. People aren't going to buy a Nintendo phone. Unless you mean it will also run Android, which I don't really see either.

 

[Freedom = $1.05]

the vita deserves better, dammit. Fucking love that thing

 

[Maninthemirror]

LTD in America:
PS4 ~2.56 million
WiiU ~2.23 million
Xbone ~2.22 million

If 80 percent of one owners get titanfall the number will be 2 million in USA

If 60 percent of ps4 owners get infamous the number will be 1.7 million in USA

 

[TechnicPuppet]

Check your toilet.

XB1 sales are great. PS4 sales are just significantly better. Why do you need to be so dramatic.

 

[Cheech]

Yeah I agree. Bring those games to the App Store

From Nintendo's point of view, they ARE depreciating their IPs by bringing them to the App Store, where they will be unable to charge $40 a pop.

Problem is, how many copies of their portable games are flying out the door at $40? You have these no-name companies like Supercell (Clash of Clans) coming in from out of nowhere, with no established IP, and making LUDICROUS amounts of money. Money that Nintendo has not seen with any of their titles ever.

Nintendo has the IP! Put a massively multiplayer Pokemon on iOS/Android, and they would make more money than they would know how to spend.

It's criminal how much money they are leaving on the table. If I was on Nintendo's board or was a major shareholder, I would be knocking over magazine racks.

 

[Mpl90]

I don't know what the point of that would be. People aren't going to buy a Nintendo phone. Unless you mean it will also run Android, which I don't really see either.

I was talking about a Nintendo handheld that can be a phone as well, not a Nintendo phone, it's different. I made some sketches about such an idea, and I posted them here on Gaf...I'll post them later, to clarify what I mean.

But still, it's a remote hypotesis, since I quite believe next handheld will still be "pure", not a phone. Better multimedia support for sure, supporting much more indies / little developers quite a given, looking at the work done in these years in general and especially on Wii U, but not a phone.

 

[sTaTIx]

XB1 sales are great. PS4 sales are just significantly better. Why do you need to be so dramatic.

Why do you need to be so sensitive/defensive about your Xbone? It was a joke.

Also, if sales were so "great," Microsoft would actually give out a number as to total sold globally. Haven't heard a peep from them since the beginning of the year on that front.

 

[BruceLeeRoy]

From Nintendo's point of view, they ARE depreciating their IPs by bringing them to the App Store, where they will be unable to charge $40 a pop.

Problem is, how many copies of their portable games are flying out the door at $40? You have these no-name companies like Supercell (Clash of Clans) coming in from out of nowhere, with no established IP, and making LUDICROUS amounts of money. Money that Nintendo has not seen with any of their titles ever.

Nintendo has the IP! Put a massively multiplayer Pokemon on iOS/Android, and they would make more money than they would know how to spend.

It's criminal how much money they are leaving on the table. If I was on Nintendo's board or was a major shareholder, I would be knocking over magazine racks.

Didn't we have some news that Nintendo's shareholders were pressuring them to do exactly that? It really makes no sense to me. They could have made a sublime new Bomberman by now and be swimming in cash like Scrooge McDuck

 

[jcm]

I see it as in The Matrix: "There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept."

This will be the new normal. I personally don't think we'll see any more "100 million sold" for any single handheld or console. Of course, I hope I'm wrong, but I think mobile and PC are making too much of a push into the space.

I'm not saying there's going to be a crash, or anything; just that games makers will have to be content with a smaller overall pie.

The problem for Nintendo is that the current levels aren't a viable business for them. They're going to have three straight years of operating losses. They either need to sell more or reduce costs. They're selling worse than the GBA/GCN days in both product lines, but they have 2x as many employees.

 

[CadetMahoney]

"There are levels of survival we are prepared to accept."

heh.

 

[chubigans]

Two things that surprised me: (1) that the XB1 sales were so high this month, didn't expect that, and (2) that we didn't get any PR in the form of Titanfall sales so far. I was so sure we'd get a 500k sold in 48hrs type PR, but nothing.

Maybe they're waiting till they clear a million?

 

[StoppedInTracks]

In picture form...

US Handheld TTM sales (missing NDS and PSP for the last few months, but they wouldn't be enough to stop the decline.)I still think there'll be some sort of 3DS successor. There won't be a PSV successor obviously.

This is crazy. Apple cleaned up post iPhone.

 

[Warm Machine]

I don't know what the point of that would be. People aren't going to buy a Nintendo phone. Unless you mean it will also run Android, which I don't really see either.

A Nintendo phone isn't for you and me. It would be for kids aged 4 to 12 so their parents can contact them whenever they need to.

 

[Gannd]

Didn't we have some news that Nintendo's shareholders were pressuring them to do exactly that? It really makes no sense to me. They could have made a sublime new Bomberman by now and be swimming in cash like Scrooge McDuck

Nintendo doesn't own Bomberman. I believe Hudson does. And, no, Nintendo's shareholders aren't really calling for that, otherwise they would have done so. Some shareholders are but Nintendo isn't going to change the directly at the whim of some minor shareholders.

 

[Abdiel]

hows that compare to actual software sales of Titanfall?

The game is selling decently, there was quite a few preorders, and most of them have been picked up, so it's moving, though not cod numbers

 

[Chill Penguin]

Dear SCEA,

When you act like the Vita doesn't exist so does the general public. If you want things to change awknowledging the platform for once might be a good start.

Signed,
Vanilla

I think they're just resigned to the fact that it's a corpse now. Their obvious plan going forward is supporting mobile via Playstation Now, so all they can really do is just ride out the rest of Vita's life.

 

[Mpl90]

From Nintendo's point of view, they ARE depreciating their IPs by bringing them to the App Store, where they will be unable to charge $40 a pop.

Problem is, how many copies of their portable games are flying out the door at $40? You have these no-name companies like Supercell (Clash of Clans) coming in from out of nowhere, with no established IP, and making LUDICROUS amounts of money. Money that Nintendo has not seen with any of their titles ever.

Nintendo has the IP! Put a massively multiplayer Pokemon on iOS/Android, and they would make more money than they would know how to spend.

It's criminal how much money they are leaving on the table. If I was on Nintendo's board or was a major shareholder, I would be knocking over magazine racks.

The mobile market, currently, is instable as hell, and it's going down a baaad path: almost everything is a free to play with IAP extorsion processes or shovelware of the worst quality possible, there are less and less paid games (even those which were just 0.99 are going down), a big percentage of the revenue comes from a veeeery limited amount of users, too limited to susatin such a business for a long time, and let's not even deal with the huge discoverability problems and how it's starting suffering from the current console market (i.e. people going to the big ones, without looking too much into other offerings, especially paid ones). In the long run, a market with quality and audience problems is going to suffer a lot.

 

[Warm Machine]

Two things that surprised me: (1) that the XB1 sales were so high this month, didn't expect that, and (2) that we didn't get any PR in the form of Titanfall sales so far. I was so sure we'd get a 500k sold in 48hrs type PR, but nothing.

Maybe they're waiting till they clear a million?

Titanfall sales are going to be super muddy next NPD because it will likely be DD loaded. So many people downloaded the beta. I expect so many will just download the full game as well. Even if it is 30/70 DD to retail split that is significant.

 

[Mr_Antimatter]

So...make them smartphones? Personally I'd love to see Nintendo do something like that. Imagine the apps they could make w/ their franchises ....



But Tomb Raider is available on 5 platforms (PS3, 360, PS4, XBO, PC), so on average that's 1 million each. InFamous is on one platform, and by your own words sold 1.65 mil.

Looks like InFamous carries more weight in the gaming space to me.

Not so much a smartphone, more like a tablet with physical controls that is optimized for games, but with a lot of other apps. The vita was a good example of what do do, on paper, but failed due to the price and memory card issues. But in theory, it's the sort of device concept I can see working.

A Vita 2 with latest mobile tech, more apps, and sd cards? Could work, if anything is going to. The key will always be making it competitive with the lower end, 7 inch tablets.

 

[kmax]

From Nintendo's point of view, they ARE depreciating their IPs by bringing them to the App Store, where they will be unable to charge $40 a pop.

Problem is, how many copies of their portable games are flying out the door at $40? You have these no-name companies like Supercell (Clash of Clans) coming in from out of nowhere, with no established IP, and making LUDICROUS amounts of money. Money that Nintendo has not seen with any of their titles ever.

Nintendo has the IP! Put a massively multiplayer Pokemon on iOS/Android, and they would make more money than they would know how to spend.

It's criminal how much money they are leaving on the table. If I was on Nintendo's board or was a major shareholder, I would be knocking over magazine racks.

The problem is that many want to eat the cake and keep it too. It doesn't work that way. They either follow where the market is, or they keep out and try to come up with something from a vacuum. Nintendo has a long tradition in that they've always been that company that does things their way. They don't like to be dictated by anyone how to do things, they much rather come up with something that they believe in. Mobile's taken the world by storm, and is a force to be reckoned with. Companies like MS, Sony and Nintendo are afraid of it, because they can't dictate things as much as they can now in that environment. They're forced to depricate the value of their products in those markets to stay competitive, and that's something they're not comfortable with, I think.

 

[Ludicrous Speed]

Well it undermines your argument with MGSV. It looks significantly better on the next gen consoles and has been marketed specifically on those platforms. Same goes for BF4 which all but hid the current gen version whereas AC4 and COD had extensive previews on the PS3, 360.

Good point. I wouldn't be surprised either way.

It is curious though that a lot of people have posted in the Titanfall threads that they expect the 360 version to sell the best. And it's the same situation as MGS there. All marketing has been geared toward the Xbox One version AND the 360 version was delayed. The next NPD results will be interesting.

So...make them smartphones? Personally I'd love to see Nintendo do something like that. Imagine the apps they could make w/ their franchises ....



But Tomb Raider is available on 5 platforms (PS3, 360, PS4, XBO, PC), so on average that's 1 million each. InFamous is on one platform, and by your own words sold 1.65 mil.

Looks like InFamous carries more weight in the gaming space to me.

Wrong. The PS3 version of TR sold 1.87M worldwide. And it was released much later than Infamous so it has not had as much time to trend upward.

 

[Satsunohadouryu]

Nintendo doesn't own Bomberman. I believe Hudson does. And, no, Nintendo's shareholders aren't really calling for that, otherwise they would have done so. Some shareholders are but Nintendo isn't going to change the directly at the whim of some minor shareholders.

Konami owns Bomberman, they also killed hudson on 2012.

 

[Chezzymann]

Just imagine how bad the situation would be if we didn't have a Powerhouse™ leading the way.



They're hardware sales. We don't have individual sales for Vita and 3DS yet, just a combined number.

Wheres the combined number for Vita and 3DS on the handheld section? All there is is just DS and PSP. What is that 175 number? I dont see how PSV and 3DS combined (or any combination of handheld sales) would equal that. Or why there are numbers over 900.

 

[liger05]

78.94% gen over gen decline for handhelds.

I'm not sure how to describe this other than "catastrophic".

Isnt the real issue here that that there the Vita just isnt contributing enough. That decline is huge but right now we only have one handheld that actually sells anything while the other is a corpse.

 

[Spiegel]

Isnt the real issue here that that there the Vita just isnt contributing enough. That decline is huge but right now we only have one handheld that actually sells anything while the other is a corpse.

No, the 3DS sales are also a "real" issue. 3DS is doing much worse numbers than the PSP was doing at the same point in its life.

 

[Nirolak]

Isnt the real issue here that that there the Vita just isnt contributing enough. That decline is huge but right now we only have one handheld that actually sells anything while the other is a corpse.

The 3DS is also in complete freefall from the NDS:

NDS: 588
PSP: 243
3DS + Vita combined: 175
NDS + PSP combined: 831

Even if we assume the Vita sold zero units, the 3DS is down 70.2% from the DS.

 

[Mr Swine]

Serious question, is there ever a small chance that the whole Apple gaming Market can collapse if almost everything is F2P or costs $0.99? It can't be very healthy for the market if everything is so cheap?

 

[jcm]

Wheres the combined number for Vita and 3DS on the handheld section? All there is is just DS and PSP. What is that 175 number? I dont see how PSV and 3DS combined (or any combination of console sales) would equal that. Or why there are numbers over 900.

175K is the correct combined number. It was leaked by a trustworthy source earlier in the thread. He didn't tell us what the spilt is, though, just the combined number.

 

[chadboban]

Didn't we have some news that Nintendo's shareholders were pressuring them to do exactly that? It really makes no sense to me. They could have made a sublime new Bomberman by now and be swimming in cash like Scrooge McDuck

Umm... Bomberman isn't a Nintendo IP dude.

Edit: beaten and it wasn't even close

 

[Chezzymann]

175K is the correct combined number. It was leaked by a trustworthy source earlier in the thread. He didn't tell us what the spilt is, though, just the combined number.

Oh, for some reason I was thinking in millions lol. Forgot that chart was for NPD numbers. I just woke up

 

[Nirolak]

Serious question, is there ever a small chance that the whole Apple gaming Market can collapse if almost everything is F2P or costs $0.99? It can't be very healthy for the market if everything is so cheap?

The f2p games make all the money though.

At the top of the grossing charts (top 10-20), there are f2p games making between $500,000 to $4 million a day.

The $0.99 games don't make that much money though yes, which is why we see most major companies abandoning that price point except indies, as they can still make good money relative to costs there.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Serious question, is there ever a small chance that the whole Apple gaming Market can collapse if almost everything is F2P or costs $0.99? It can't be very healthy for the market if everything is so cheap?

How much does it cost to make Flappy Bird? The truth is, for the industry to collapse, the in app advertising industry needs to collapse. And even then, a lot of people will be happy playing free games made for free. By which I mean, if all was left was bedroom coders making games for fun, it could still be enough to deter people from readopting handheld games consoles.

 

[Ricky 7]

The 3DS is also in complete freefall from the NDS:

NDS: 588
PSP: 243
3DS + Vita combined: 175
NDS + PSP combined: 831

Even if we assume the Vita sold zero units, the 3DS is down 70.2% from the DS.

Oh man that's brutal, NDS is the best selling console ever in North America so it's successor being 70% behind is just terrible.

 

[Petrae]

Wait, 12k in the whole February month? Is that even possible??? Isn't there a big chance that retailers are not going to sell vita anymore if It's selling that bad? Makes Wii U look like the champion, king of kings ATM. Poor vita

Sure, it's possible.

There aren't enough recognizable game releases for Vita-- it's mostly indie or niche stuff, most of which the average consumer is unaware of or has no interest in.

Vita doesn't have the price advantage or the IP advantage that Nintendo has with 3DS, either.

The toughest factor of all is that dedicated handhelds are in a contraction phase here in the US. Smartphones and tablets-- which many consumers already have-- offer gaming experiences of their own and it's no longer necessary to buy a dedicated device to get your gaming fix. Sure, dedicated devices can offer deeper experiences, but for many, experiences on mobile are good enough.

It all adds up to an extremely challenging sales environment for Vita that presents an infinitesimal chance of any turnaround. For now, Sony is better served in supporting what install base the unit has by keeping the indies and niche games coming, satisfying those who already spent money on the unit.

 

[Nirolak]

Oh man that's brutal, NDS is the best selling console ever in North America so it's successor being 70% behind is just terrible.

And that's a generous assessment in which the Vita sold nothing.

Not that this would be hugely off base for Vita, but if it did something more reasonable like 20K then we'd be quite a bit further down.

 

[liger05]

The 3DS is also in complete freefall from the NDS:

NDS: 588
PSP: 243
3DS + Vita combined: 175
NDS + PSP combined: 831

Even if we assume the Vita sold zero units, the 3DS is down 70.2% from the DS.

Damn that is brutal

 

[Plinko]

The 3DS is also in complete freefall from the NDS:

NDS: 588
PSP: 243
3DS + Vita combined: 175
NDS + PSP combined: 831

Even if we assume the Vita sold zero units, the 3DS is down 70.2% from the DS.

Who wasn't expecting this? The market is completely different from this point in the DS's lifespan. Market is oversaturated with iOS/smartphone/tablets and $1 games.

The fact that a dedicated handheld with $40 gams is selling much less shouldn't be shocking to anyone.

 

[Mutanthands]

No, the 3DS sales are also a "real" issue. 3DS is doing much worse numbers than the PSP was doing at the same point in its life.

And it continues to trend downward. Considering that Nintendo is already losing money, has one bullet left in the big gun (Smash), and the 2DS hasn't done anything to build sales momentum, this is very bad news for Nintendo.

I don't know what they can do. If they discount the hardware, then that's less money coming in. Cut the software prices, same thing. It will be at least a year before they could get something new out, and by then they'll also be launching their Health whatever initiative. Considering they're stretched to the limit with two platforms, and hopefully starting to gear up for whatever comes after the WiiU, I don't know how they can re-engage the market with anything near the effort and manpower needed.

Nintendo as a business confuses me.

Edit: http://www.macrumors.com/2014/03/13/ios-8-screenshot-icons/

Better link here: http://www.macrumors.com/2014/01/31/healthbook-app-ios-8/

Jesus, Apple is going to beat Nintendo to the Health whatever thing. Bad news.

 

[Mpl90]

The f2p games make all the money though.

At the top of the grossing charts (top 10-20), there are f2p games making between $500,000 to $4 million a day.

The $0.99 games don't make that much money though yes, which is why we see most major companies abandoning that price point except indies, as they can still make good money relative to costs there.

As said earlier

http://venturebeat.com/2014/02/26/o...-50-percent-of-all-in-game-revenue-exclusive/

You can't sustain an industry with only 0.15% of the whole audience giving you around 50% of your revenue, you just can't. It's a nightmare-in-the-making. And let's not even discuss about how the quality itself is going down, and more and more free to play are going the extorsion route. Less and less possibly good gaming experiences (of any kind, free to play as well - DQM is a recent example of this done well), much more bad experiences...you can!t expect people to stay forever if things continue like this. And, so far, there doesn't seem to be a stop to such a trend: I fear it even accelerated, recently O_O

 

[TheRealTalker]

Where likely going to see the PS portible/vita handheld series move into mobile (Xperia)

I highly doubt we will get a full-fledged sucessor

 

[Petrae]

Who wasn't expecting this? The market is completely different from this point in the DS's lifespan. Market is oversaturated with iOS/smartphone/tablets and $1 games.

The fact that a dedicated handheld with $40 gams is selling much less shouldn't be shocking to anyone.

I don't think it's as unexpected as it is fascinating to see this transition taking place.

There really isn't a lot that Nintendo (or Sony) can do about this. Gaming on devices that you already own is more convenient for consumers, and the pricing strategy is far more inviting (Free - $15) than dropping $30-$40 on new games.

The dedicated handheld market will become a niche, and will continue to exist... but sales expectations will have to be tempered to reflect reality. There won't be another period similar to when the Game Boy or the DS dominated. Those days are done.

 

[Mutanthands]

Where likely going to see the PS portible/vita handheld series move into mobile (Xperia)

I highly doubt we will get a full-fledged sucessor

That would probably be the best case scenario. It's just as likely that they will let the whole thing drop, and rely on Playstation Now for high end mobile gaming.

 

[John Harker]

wait....if you know how it did, why ask?
or am I missing something

I know everything.

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