NPD Sales Results for February 2015 [Nintendo Numbers, Majora's, MH4, ~XB1]

aly

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March 2015 Best Sellers is up

PS4 is #4
XB1 AC Bundle #16

But far more interesting is that

Bloodborne is #6
Bloodborne CE is #26

Whereas Battlefield Hardline is

PS4 at #41
XB1 at #64

I said it before and I'll say it again Battlefield Hardline is going to be an absolute bomb for the Battlefield series. While it might sell well compared to average sales it will fall massively short of even the underwhelming sales seen for Battlefield 4. If the world was a just place then Bloodborne would outsell it in March but thanks to it being multiplat and a popular FPS that is still unlikely. I think they will be much closer in sales than some seem to think though.
I might be wrong, but did'nt EA only expect it to sell like 1/3 of Battlefield 4? Or at least they don't expect Battlefield 4 sales from Hardline.
 

MrPink93485

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March 2015 Best Sellers is up

PS4 is #4
XB1 AC Bundle #16

But far more interesting is that

Bloodborne is #6
Bloodborne CE is #26

Whereas Battlefield Hardline is

PS4 at #41
XB1 at #64

I said it before and I'll say it again Battlefield Hardline is going to be an absolute bomb for the Battlefield series. While it might sell well compared to average sales it will fall massively short of even the underwhelming sales seen for Battlefield 4. If the world was a just place then Bloodborne would outsell it in March but thanks to it being multiplat and a popular FPS that is still unlikely. I think they will be much closer in sales than some seem to think though.
I think the UK numbers are a far more reliable indicator for what to expect in the US, and it sounds to me that Hardline did decently despite a middling reaction. From what I understand, Hardline 2nd week sales > Bloodborne
 

theprodigy

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March 2015 Best Sellers is up

PS4 is #4 #7
XB1 AC Bundle #16

But far more interesting is that

Bloodborne is #6
Bloodborne CE is #26

Whereas Battlefield Hardline is

PS4 at #41
XB1 at #64

I said it before and I'll say it again Battlefield Hardline is going to be an absolute bomb for the Battlefield series. While it might sell well compared to average sales it will fall massively short of even the underwhelming sales seen for Battlefield 4. If the world was a just place then Bloodborne would outsell it in March but thanks to it being multiplat and a popular FPS that is still unlikely. I think they will be much closer in sales than some seem to think though.
you should have learned from Evolve's Amazon bomba, that Amazon is not always reliable when it comes to software

I might be wrong, but did'nt EA only expect it to sell like 1/3 of Battlefield 4? Or at least they don't expect Battlefield 4 sales from Hardline.
also this
 

RexNovis

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I might be wrong, but did'nt EA only expect it to sell like 1/3 of Battlefield 4? Or at least they don't expect Battlefield 4 sales from Hardline.
I have never seen any statement from EA projecting a series decline in sales for the franchise. If you can show me otherwise sure. Lots of people have said this so I'm wondering where it has come from because, as I said, as far as I know they haven't made any remarks about expecting sales decline and I looked for it after a couple others said as much.
 

hawk2025

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you should have learned from Evolve's Amazon bomba, that Amazon is not always reliable when it comes to software



also this
That's what I was going to say: Evolve should have taught people once and for all that at least as far as software positioning predictions go, Amazon is not a good signal.

The sample is probably super-biased, and I suspect it would be biased precisely towards something like Bloodborne.
 

RexNovis

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I think the UK numbers are a far more reliable indicator for what to expect in the US, and it sounds to me that Hardline did decently despite a middling reaction. From what I understand, Hardline 2nd week sales > Bloodborne
you should have learned from Evolve's Amazon bomba, that Amazon is not always reliable when it comes to software
Its a combination of Amazon and many of my otherwise FPS crazy friends (all of whom picked up BF4 day one) completely skipping the game. I claim no aboslute authority on the matter just more of a gut feeling that happens to be backed up personal experience and by the amazon sales charts. You are right in that Amazon sales arent always reliable for software with Evolve being the most obvious example but I'm inclined to believe they'll be a bit more representative of general market trends this time around. Only time will tell.
 

anexanhume

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March 2015 Best Sellers is up

PS4 is #4 #7
XB1 AC Bundle #16

But far more interesting is that

Bloodborne is #6
Bloodborne CE is #26

Whereas Battlefield Hardline is

PS4 at #41
XB1 at #64

I said it before and I'll say it again Battlefield Hardline is going to be an absolute bomb for the Battlefield series. While it might sell well compared to average sales it will fall massively short of even the underwhelming sales seen for Battlefield 4. If the world was a just place then Bloodborne would outsell it in March but thanks to it being multiplat and a popular FPS that is still unlikely. I think they will be much closer in sales than some seem to think though.
It was also interesting to see that Bloodborne bundle pass and hold on both Xbox bundles the last week. The general public didn't have that bundle, but I still expect a solid ps4 win.
 
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That's what I was going to say: Evolve should have taught people once and for all that at least as far as software positioning predictions go, Amazon is not a good signal.

The sample is probably super-biased, and I suspect it would be biased precisely towards something like Bloodborne.
Yeah, it's always seemed to me that tech-savvy people are more likely to shop online and more likely to be interested in video games that are more "hardcore" than the norm.

Nintendo titles also seem to punch above their weight on Amazon metrics.
 

aly

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I have never seen any statement from EA projecting a series decline in sales for the franchise. If you can show me otherwise sure. Lots of people have said this so I'm wondering where it has come from because, as I said, as far as I know they haven't made any remarks about expecting sales decline and I looked for it after a couple others said as much.
Well forget me, I can't find it either so far. Have no idea where that came from then. However, I do have a hard time believing they could expect the same sales due to timing and how Hardline seems more like a spinoff than any mainline Battlefield.
 

theprodigy

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Well forget me, I can't find it either so far. Have no idea where that came from then. However, I do have a hard time believing they could expect the same sales due to timing and how Hardline seems more like a spinoff than any mainline Battlefield.
you probably remember 1/3 from this thread, though that statement is admittedly somewhat vague
 

RexNovis

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As far as EA talking about an expected sales decline for Hardline the only statement I could find from EA was the exact opposite

EA said on its Jan. 27 earnings call that it expects sales of Battlefield Hardline to carry it through the rest of the year. "People play and buy Battlefield products for a long time into the future," CFO Blake Jorgensen said on the call. "The momentum is going to build on it as more and more people start to play it and want their friends to be able to come in and play it."
Source

So on the contrary it seems they did not anticipate it selling less and in fact were counting on its sales to carry their earnings.

Also in regards to sales for Hardline the player stats page seems to paint a pretty damning picture as well

XBOXONE
  • 51,210
Peak 24h
  • 57,515

PS4
  • 52,196
Peak 24h
  • 70,633
Even BF4 with its horrible buggy early gen release was getting 100k+ on peak 24 hours well into its second month on PS4 and over 90k+ on XB1. That's a MASSIVE difference in online player numbers.
 

Welfare

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Dark Souls 1 October NPD: #6 [#4 was 550k]
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first week: 279k
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first 4 weeks: >340k

Dark Souls 2 March NPD: <350k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first week: 255k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first 4 weeks: 320k

Bloodborne Media Create first week: 152k

Yeah more than 300k next NPD seems optimistic.
 

Tubie

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I said it before and I'll say it again Battlefield Hardline is going to be an absolute bomb for the Battlefield series. While it might sell well compared to average sales it will fall massively short of even the underwhelming sales seen for Battlefield 4. If the world was a just place then Bloodborne would outsell it in March but thanks to it being multiplat and a popular FPS that is still unlikely. I think they will be much closer in sales than some seem to think though.
Hardline outsold Bloodborne in the UK in it's second week and it outsold Type-0 (when you combine the PS3 and PS4 SKUs) in Japan.

I think the game sold fine, definitely not as well as BF4, but not so low as to call it a "crazy bomba" or something like that.

Edit: The lower sales can also be in part thanks to the disaster of a launch BF4 had turning a lot of people off the series.
 

Kill3r7

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Hardline outsold Bloodborne in the UK in it's second week and it outsold Type-0 (when you combine the PS3 and PS4 SKUs) in Japan.

I think the game sold fine, definitely not as well as BF4, but not so low as to call it a "crazy bomba" or something like that.

Edit: The lower sales can also be in part thanks to the disaster of a launch BF4 had turning a lot of people off the series.
The game is doing fine for a March release. Please show me all the popular FPS games that were released during the "offseason" and sold the same as COD or BF (mainline).
 

IAmRandom31

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Dark Souls 1 October NPD: #6 [#4 was 550k]
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first week: 279k
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first 4 weeks: >340k

Dark Souls 2 March NPD: <350k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first week: 255k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first 4 weeks: 320k

Bloodborne Media Create first week: 152k

Yeah more than 300k next NPD seems optimistic.
What were the system hardware numbers for the PS3 / 360 during this time period compared to the current PS4 numbers?

In Dark Souls case we are talking 2011. So yeh ... there was a ton of hardware out at that point for both systems.
 

Mrbob

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Dark Souls 1 October NPD: #6 [#4 was 550k]
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first week: 279k
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first 4 weeks: >340k

Dark Souls 2 March NPD: <350k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first week: 255k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first 4 weeks: 320k

Bloodborne Media Create first week: 152k

Yeah more than 300k next NPD seems optimistic.
Why? There are like 5x the number of PS4s in the USA.
 

Javin98

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March 2015 Best Sellers is up

PS4 is #4 #7
XB1 AC Bundle #16

But far more interesting is that

Bloodborne is #6
Bloodborne CE is #26

Whereas Battlefield Hardline is

PS4 at #41
XB1 at #64

I said it before and I'll say it again Battlefield Hardline is going to be an absolute bomb for the Battlefield series. While it might sell well compared to average sales it will fall massively short of even the underwhelming sales seen for Battlefield 4. If the world was a just place then Bloodborne would outsell it in March but thanks to it being multiplat and a popular FPS that is still unlikely. I think they will be much closer in sales than some seem to think though.
When was this last updated? The positions of the PS4 and XB1 are exactly the same as they were a few days ago. Also, it's amazing to see the limited edition Batman Arkham Knight bundle shoot straight to #1 on the hourly charts.
 

Welfare

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What were the system hardware numbers for the PS3 / 360 during this time period compared to the current PS4 numbers?

In Dark Souls case we are talking 2011. So yeh ... there was a ton of hardware out at that point for both systems.
PS3 as of October 2011 NPD: 18.14m
PS3 as of Week 41, 2011 Media Create: 7.168m
360 as of October 2011 NPD: 29.23m

PS3 as of March 2014 NPD: 25.77m
PS3 as of Week 14, 2014 Media Create: 9.918m
360 as of March 2014 NPD: 41.31m

PS4 as of February 2015 NPD: 7.2m
PS4 as of Week 13, 2015 Media Create: 1.349m

Why? There are like 5x the number of PS4s in the USA.
Look at the above install bases. Even with a culmative 67.07m units in the US, DS2 did <350k, and that was with the PS3 only taking ~51% of those sales.

Now granted, 360 users did switch to the PS4, but enough to equal that full 350k on one system? A system that had an install base of 25.77m and only managed to grab ~178k units of sales, with the other having a 41.3m unit install base?
 

Mrbob

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Total User Base and Active User Base are two different things. PS4 has a high active user base for purchasing software. Plus there aren't as many great games to choose from in the PS4 lifespan to compete with Bloodborne.

Also the Souls fanbase has expanded since Dark Souls released. You can't really make an apples to apples comparison to 2011.
 

Kill3r7

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Total User Base and Active User Base are two different things. PS4 has a high active user base for purchasing software. Plus there aren't as many great games to choose from in the PS4 lifespan to compete with Bloodborne.

Also the Souls fanbase has expanded since Dark Souls released. You can't really make an apples to apples comparison to 2011.
Bloodborne did better than DS2 its first week in the UK so you might be right about the fan base expanding or maybe the advertising is paying off who knows. Unfortunately no PC/Xbox release diminishes the overall player pool going forward. We'll get NPD numbers soon enough but I still stick with my original prediction close to DS2 in sales for first month with Infamous SS being its ceiling.
 

gtj1092

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PS3 as of October 2011 NPD: 18.14m
PS3 as of Week 41, 2011 Media Create: 7.168m
360 as of October 2011 NPD: 29.23m

PS3 as of March 2014 NPD: 25.77m
PS3 as of Week 14, 2014 Media Create: 9.918m
360 as of March 2014 NPD: 41.31m

PS4 as of February 2015 NPD: 7.2m
PS4 as of Week 13, 2015 Media Create: 1.349m


Look at the above install bases. Even with a culmative 67.07m units in the US, DS2 did <350k, and that was with the PS3 only taking ~51% of those sales.

Now granted, 360 users did switch to the PS4, but enough to equal that full 350k on one system? A system that had an install base of 25.77m and only managed to grab ~178k units of sales, with the other having a 41.3m unit install base?
But didn't it manage to match DKsouls first week sales in the UK despite being on one console. I wouldn't use Japanese sales to infer anything about the west. Did you know that XB1 has sold less than 50K there I bet its bombing in America too ;-).
 

Welfare

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But didn't it manage to match DKsouls first week sales in the UK despite being on one console. I wouldn't use Japanese sales to infer anything about the west. Did you know that XB1 has sold less than 50K there I bet its bombing in America too ;-).
Did it? I haven't been in the PAL charts thread yet.
 

The Shogun

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Jul 24, 2014
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March 2015 Best Sellers is up

PS4 is #4 #7
XB1 AC Bundle #16

But far more interesting is that

Bloodborne is #6
Bloodborne CE is #26

Whereas Battlefield Hardline is

PS4 at #41
XB1 at #64

I said it before and I'll say it again Battlefield Hardline is going to be an absolute bomb for the Battlefield series. While it might sell well compared to average sales it will fall massively short of even the underwhelming sales seen for Battlefield 4. If the world was a just place then Bloodborne would outsell it in March but thanks to it being multiplat and a popular FPS that is still unlikely. I think they will be much closer in sales than some seem to think though.
Hardline will win the month and it won't be by a small margin.
 

Nightengale

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With the exception of FIFA and some occasional... stuff, UK and US are practically twins in terms of how their console gaming market is.

Hardline is #1 in UK easily. The same will happen for US.
 

Kill3r7

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I don't know where people are getting the idea that Hardline is selling poorly. It's doing okay for a spring release. It's the number one title in UK and has done fairly well in Japan.
 

Jomjom

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Combine that with EU and JP sales and i think this game will go for about 500-550k lifetime. Heh, not so bad at all for a semi new IP that isn't particularly welcoming at all to new comers. Although i put that 50k leeway in due to the amount of possible refunds, a lot of people are probably gonna be blindsided by the game's challenge.
I could see this happening...







...if Bloodborne is banned for worldwide consumption in the next couple months.
 

LunaticHigh

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Dark Souls 1 October NPD: #6 [#4 was 550k]
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first week: 279k
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first 4 weeks: >340k

Dark Souls 2 March NPD: <350k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first week: 255k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first 4 weeks: 320k

Bloodborne Media Create first week: 152k

Yeah more than 300k next NPD seems optimistic.
The media create sales are not really a good metric for bloodborne. The ps4 is doing terrible in Japan, whereas the ps4 is the machine to have in the rest of the world I would not be surprised if it did more than dark souls 1 first month.
 

KillerMan91

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Did it? I haven't been in the PAL charts thread yet.
Yes.

Bloodborne - 45k
Dark Souls 2 - 42k

I really wouldn't use Japan as an any indicator this gen when making comparisons with sales of games. PS4 has been selling well in the west but not in Japan. UK is a lot better indicator.
 

Jomjom

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The media create sales are not really a good metric for bloodborne. The ps4 is doing terrible in Japan, whereas the ps4 is the machine to have in the rest of the world I would not be surprised if it did more than dark souls 1 first month.
Well at least in recent weeks it's been doing pretty well. I mean 40k+ in the most recent tracked week. If they keep that kind of number for a month that'll be pretty close to what the US sells monthly.
 

Kill3r7

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Well at least in recent weeks it's been doing pretty well. I mean 40k+ in the most recent tracked week. If they keep that kind of number for a month that'll be pretty close to what the US sells monthly.
Except most games can't keep up those kind of numbers week over week. For reference DS2 sold ~42k its first week and ~16k during its second week. I think Bloodborne is selling really well for what it is. I'm enjoying my time with it.
 

theprodigy

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I don't know where people are getting the idea that Hardline is selling poorly. It's doing okay for a spring release. It's the number one title in UK and has done fairly well in Japan.
unrealistically high expectations that it should match BF4 for some reason when even EA's target is 1/3 of it
 

joecanada

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Dark Souls 1 October NPD: #6 [#4 was 550k]
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first week: 279k
Dark Souls 1 Media Create first 4 weeks: >340k

Dark Souls 2 March NPD: <350k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first week: 255k
Dark Souls 2 (PS3) Media Create first 4 weeks: 320k

Bloodborne Media Create first week: 152k

Yeah more than 300k next NPD seems optimistic.
what was the install base on those releases? Japan's install base is tiny, 152k first week is about right.