NPD Sales Results for February 2015 [Nintendo Numbers, Majora's, MH4, ~XB1]

Jun 12, 2013
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One would think that once the UK weekly charts came in, people with high expectations should've really recalibrated their expectations...

UK/US are practically twin-brothers who's primary difference is their love of different 'footballs' in terms of how their console market look like.

While Bloodborne did good for it's first week in UK, it was... what? 65-70% of inFamous SS?

I expect a similar ratio for Bloodborne in US compared to inFamous's NPD performance last year. It did around 400k at launch, so I'm seeing maybe 280-300k.

Bloodborne's gotten a lot of internet hype, but honestly? There is a very clear sense that the excitement for Bloodborne isn't as far-reaching as say... Watch_Dogs, Titanfall, Destiny, where the excitement for those games felt very broadly mainstream.
 
Jan 16, 2009
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Really janky.

Amazon is more like 6% from what I remember Aqua saying. We also have no idea what each place sold. #1 for the month could be 30k and #4 15k for all know.
I think it was pretty clear that anexanhume was extrapolating on very limited data and he accounted for Amazon's bias in his estimate. It's what anyone here can do at this point, guess.

The fact that Amazon is only 6% is irrelevant, they could be 2% and be a great data point for the market. Unfortunately they're not in most cases, but that has nothing to do with being only 6%.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Jul 26, 2014
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Bloodborne's gotten a lot of internet hype, but honestly? There is a very clear sense that the excitement for Bloodborne isn't as far-reaching as say... Watch_Dogs, Titanfall, Destiny, where the excitement for those games felt very broadly mainstream.
We're not comparing it to hundred million dollar blockbusters though, are we? That's silly
 
Jun 12, 2013
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We're not comparing it to hundred million dollar blockbusters though, are we? That's silly
I'm saying there's trickle-down effects.

Titanfall didn't become the "CoD killer" and "the savior of XB1", but 1+ million debut at NPD, with its lack of content is absolutely stellar for a new IP on limited platforms. And I believe that happened because it was receiving the same amount of hype and push not inferior to the hundred million blockbuster.
 
Jul 24, 2014
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One would think that once the UK weekly charts came in, people with high expectations should've really recalibrated their expectations...

UK/US are practically twin-brothers who's primary difference is their love of different 'footballs' in terms of how their console market look like.

While Bloodborne did good for it's first week in UK, it was... what? 65-70% of inFamous SS?

I expect a similar ratio for Bloodborne in US compared to inFamous's NPD performance last year. It did around 400k at launch, so I'm seeing maybe 280-300k.

Bloodborne's gotten a lot of internet hype, but honestly? There is a very clear sense that the excitement for Bloodborne isn't as far-reaching as say... Watch_Dogs, Titanfall, Destiny, where the excitement for those games felt very broadly mainstream.
This is solid analysis imo.

Though it being a 5 week period could help.
 
Jan 20, 2008
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No dude Bloodborne is amazing and not niche it'll sell gangbusters and all nay sayers will eat crow.
The amount of people that will be surprised that BB is a relatively niche (or "smaller" in sales) title will be quite interesting.

I'd really love to be wrong but aside from Amazon charts, all sales data is pointing to a 300-400k release.
 
Aug 15, 2010
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The amount of people that will be surprised that BB is a relatively niche (or "smaller" in sales) title will be quite interesting.

I'd really love to be wrong but aside from Amazon charts, all sales data is pointing to a 300-400k release.
Uh, 300-400k would be really good.

I don't know why so many people keep insisting that Souls games are niche, even though we know Dark Souls 1 sold 2.3 million and Dark Souls 2 sold 1.2 million in its first month. No-one does it for any other series that sell in that range, just this one.
 
Apr 2, 2013
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Really janky.

Amazon is more like 6% from what I remember Aqua saying. We also have no idea what each place sold. #1 for the month could be 30k and #4 15k for all know.
6%? I thouht I remember it being close to 10. Anyway, they are ranked 14th and 16th respectively. I'm guessing the absolute delta tapers significantly as you progress down the ladder in rankings.

Still, if it it 6%, that would put my estimate at 360K, which is completely in-line with the other guesstimates I'm seeing right now in this thread.

One would think that once the UK weekly charts came in, people with high expectations should've really recalibrated their expectations...

UK/US are practically twin-brothers who's primary difference is their love of different 'footballs' in terms of how their console market look like.

While Bloodborne did good for it's first week in UK, it was... what? 65-70% of inFamous SS?

I expect a similar ratio for Bloodborne in US compared to inFamous's NPD performance last year. It did around 400k at launch, so I'm seeing maybe 280-300k.

Bloodborne's gotten a lot of internet hype, but honestly? There is a very clear sense that the excitement for Bloodborne isn't as far-reaching as say... Watch_Dogs, Titanfall, Destiny, where the excitement for those games felt very broadly mainstream.
How did DS/DS2 do in US compared to UK? How has install base grown in US vs. UK? Those are important to hedging a guess. Also, the numbers/rankings on Amazon, which have been realiable, suggest that PS4 heavily outperformed XB1 this month. I would be surprised if BB came in under 300K. I wonder if they intend to announce a million sold- as they announced Infamous passed one million in 9 days.
 
Jan 20, 2008
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Uh, 300-400k would be really good.

I don't know why so many people keep insisting that Souls games are niche, even though we know Dark Souls 1 sold 2.3 million and Dark Souls 2 sold 1.2 million in its first month. No-one does it for any other series that sell in that range, just this one.
I agree, 300 to 400k would be fantastic for Bloodborne. That's why I put "smaller" as opposed to just niche. Because while those are still fantastic sales, they still aren't at the level of other blockbusters.
 
Jun 12, 2013
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I know Bloodborne has been attached to statements like "it's not really a new IP blahblah", but personally, having worked in marketing, the strength of a 'brand' cannot be under-estimated one bit.

It's very difficult and challenging to establish a 'brand.' Companies double-down on established brands because in a time where people are bombarded by so many choices of the same price-point ($60), it's the strong brands that hold the attention and retention of the mainstream audience.

Battlefield Hardline will do well just on the strength of its brand. Bloodborne will have no problem selling to the Souls audience, but in terms of reaching out beyond the Souls audience, it faces all the same challenges a new IP does.
 
Aug 15, 2010
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I agree, 300 to 400k would be fantastic for Bloodborne. That's why I put "smaller" as opposed to just niche. Because while those are still fantastic sales, they still aren't at the level of other blockbusters.
Sure but I don't think anyone's expecting it to be a huge blockbuster. If it sold over 2 million then that would put it in the same range as franchises like Killzone and Forza, which I wouldn't consider niche at all.

I know Bloodborne has been attached to statements like "it's not really a new IP blahblah", but personally, having worked in marketing, the strength of a 'brand' cannot be under-estimated one bit.

It's very difficult and challenging to establish a 'brand.' Companies double-down on established brands because in a time where people are bombarded by so many choices of the same price-point ($60), it's the strong brands that hold the attention and retention of the mainstream audience.

Battlefield Hardline will do well just on the strength of its brand.
I think it depends on the audience. Battlefield Hardline's a good example of the strength of brands, but that's a shooter that relies a lot on its mainstream appeal.

The Souls games, on the other hand, have such a large hardcore following that I don't think it really matters that much what they call it, those people will know exactly what it is. And then from there, word of mouth plays its part to get everyone else on board, which is how the Souls games became popular (or even still exist) in the first place.
 
Apr 2, 2013
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OK. It did 150k in Japan the first week so if it can't double that for 2 weeks in the US with a much larger install base it would be surprising.
And 120k in first week in UK, right? Total install base of XB1 + PS4 in UK is 3M whereas it's more than triple that here. Population is over triple that. If they are that similar then >300k seems completely sensible.

Edit: number fixed in later post.
 
Aug 4, 2013
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I'll eat raw crow at anything 300k and up.
Ha

Get your fork ready

Bloodborne is now the # 15 best selling videogame related item on Amazon of 2015 and that's just the standalone game. Not including the Ps4 bundle or the collectors edition. Collectors edition is like #65.

Then you have digital sales which could be quite high due to the midnight EST launch which probably got a lot of people picking it up to play sooner.

Going to be a big number. 500k - 650k is my guess
 
Jan 24, 2005
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500k+ is a silly estimate. If you are going to use Amazon numbers as a barometer then at least keep in mind that TLoZ:MM is the #1 game for the year and it opened to 515k combined retail+digital. Bloodborne wont match that.

We also wont get digital numbers outside of Sony releasing them.

Bloodborne will do well, sell some systems and is a fantastic game, but people are getting way ahead of themselves. 300k+ would be fantastic, 400k+ would be phenomenal.
 
Mar 26, 2013
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Ha

Get your fork ready

Bloodborne is now the # 15 best selling videogame related item on Amazon of 2015 and that's just the standalone game. Not including the Ps4 bundle or the collectors edition. Collectors edition is like #65.

Then you have digital sales which could be quite high due to the midnight EST launch which probably got a lot of people picking it up to play sooner.

Going to be a big number. 500k - 650k is my guess
He's obviously talking about NPD = Retail sales in US not counting bundle sales.
 
Apr 5, 2010
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Bloodborne isn't "niche." Maybe something like the Atelier series is "niche" in the US. When people use that label for Bloodborne, they're going out of their way to intentionally sell it short. It will be the highest single format selling game in the US in March. As it will be in almost every country in Europe. By definition, that isn't a niche game.
 
May 23, 2013
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500k+ is a silly estimate. If you are going to use Amazon numbers as a barometer then at least keep in mind that TLoZ:MM is the #1 game for the year and it opened to 515k combined retail+digital. Bloodborne wont match that.

We also wont get digital numbers outside of Sony releasing them.

Bloodborne will do well, sell some systems and is a fantastic game, but people are getting way ahead of themselves. 300k+ would be fantastic, 400k+ would be phenomenal.
Reading through this thread I have the idea that a lot of people don't know what they're talking about when it comes to retail sales.

Thanks for your post which grounds things a bit more.

No doubt Bloodborne will be a success, but some people are really over hyping/estimating the game.


Also, when do we get a March Prediction thread or is this not a thing anymore?


Anyway. Thought some people might be interested in this- (As of Dec 31st 2014)

PS2/PS3/PS4 sales Vs Xbox/Xbox 360/Xbox One sales in the USA (Sell through)





PlayStation consoles = ~111m
Xbox consoles = ~64m
 

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Oct 9, 2007
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Bloodborne isn't "niche." Maybe something like the Atelier series is "niche" in the US. When people use that label for Bloodborne, they're going out of their way to intentionally sell it short. It will be the highest single format selling game in the US in March. As it will be in almost every country in Europe. By definition, that isn't a niche game.
Dark Souls sold some 2.5million copies. Dark Souls II is on its way up there. That's not Niche at all. It puts up there with Dragon Age II. On the tail end of Mass Effect 1,3, DA:O, and many other big budget RPGs from last gen.

Nor would getting hyped for months by every major press outlet and having a major marketing campaign.

I guess you can argue it fills a niche, but production values, sales, and marketing says no.
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Dark Souls sold some 2.5million copies. Dark Souls II is on its way up there. That's not Niche at all. It puts up there with Dragon Age II. On the tail end of Mass Effect 1,3, DA:O, and many other big budget RPGs from last gen.

Nor would getting hyped for months by every major press outlet and having a major marketing campaign.

I guess you can argue it fills a niche, but production values, sales, and marketing says no.
Niche definitely seems like a put down at times and used inaccurately. "It might be a good game, but no one cares about it."
 

shintoki

sparkle this bitch
Oct 9, 2007
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Niche definitely seems like a put down at times and used inaccurately. "It might be a good game, but no one cares about it."
Witcher is the only RPG series that sold more than Dark Souls coming out.

Unless Versus comes.

You are right about Niche being missed use, largely to downplay a title. Either to make its success seem grande than it is. Or whatever reason. They aren't expecting a million out of the gate or anything, but I'm sure they are expecting several hundred thousand. And for it to have some legs for quite a while like previous entries.
 
Aug 24, 2011
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Little late but 3DS vs PSP (and DS) comparison for this year
Code:
            3DS 2015  PSP 2009  NDS 2009
    January       74       172       510
    February     395       199       588
    March                  168       563
    April                  116       1040
    May                    100       633
    June                   163       766
    July                   123       539
    August                 140       552
    September              190       524
    October                174       457
    November               293       1700
    December               654       3310
    Through 
    February     469       374       1098

    Total                 2492      11182
3DS takes the lead over PSP thanks to New3DS but will it hold for whole year? Stay tuned.
 
Sep 1, 2014
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No dude Bloodborne is amazing and not niche it'll sell gangbusters and all nay sayers will eat crow.
You can try and downplay the title all you want, but the games sell well. While they have niche appeal and mechanics, their sales (1-3 million) are definitely not as niche as you make them out to be. The game will do well. I don't think anyone is expecting it to do Gears of War numbers, but c'mon son.
 
Apr 17, 2014
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If Bloodborne is niche, everything is niche. BB is exactly what a lot of people wanted after they discovered and played Souls games thanks to YT and such, it was a safe shot for Sony and the biggest risk they took was to drop the "Souls" word from the title, really.
 
Jan 19, 2015
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Little late but 3DS vs PSP (and DS) comparison for this year
Code:
            3DS 2015  PSP 2009  NDS 2009
    January       74       172       510
    February     395       199       588
    March                  168       563
    April                  116       1040
    May                    100       633
    June                   163       766
    July                   123       539
    August                 140       552
    September              190       524
    October                174       457
    November               293       1700
    December               654       3310
    Through 
    February     469       374       1098

    Total                 2492      11182
3DS takes the lead over PSP thanks to New3DS but will it hold for whole year? Stay tuned.
DS really is GOAT. Can't imagine any other handheld selling like this not named Iphone