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NPD Sales Results for February 2016 [Up1: Fire Emblem]

eFKac

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Nov 13, 2014
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Where did you come to this conclusion? Just trying to figure it out myself. I see many FGC members freaking out about it. I'm not even sure how much they'd have by now given those numbers.
~ 210k retail NPD PS4
~ 130k on Steam
~ 55k retail Media Create PS4

That leaves us with PS4 digital in US (5th in Feb) and EU (out of top 20, probably insignificanct numbers), and Japan (Famitsu estimates usually around 10-20% of retail) whole PAL and Asia retail sales on the PS4. Game didn't fire the Pal charts but debuted in top 5 in a lot of them (UK FW estimate around 24k iirc)

And that's combining shipped numbers (digital) and sold numbers (retail), shipped retail is even higher, no info whether channels are stuffed or normal.

Personally expecting shipped numbers to be above 1m by the end of the fiscal year for SFV which is still a disappointment.
 

Ryng_tolu

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Jul 7, 2015
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Well going back through last gen, the only time a console managed to sell >400k in May was when Nintendo had just released Mario Kart wii in the last week of April, so i doubt that the PS4 will be >400k.

On the other hand, Mario Kart Wii releasing in the last week of April is about the closest we have come in the last decade of having a massive exclusive release.
The biggest exclusive to release to release in May in the last decade is likely MLB 14 the Show for the PS4. (Forza 2, Infamous, and Alan Wake are the only other notable ones each ~200k or less) Uncharted will be about 5x bigger than any exclusive released in May in the last 10 years.
I think PS4 Will have a VERY good May.

250,000-275,000 in May is Amazing since is a terrible month For sales. But 400K is just out of the question.
 

Bluth54

Member
Feb 5, 2008
8,049
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What jappened with tomb rauder then? the reason tomb raider didn't sell is because it wasn't on ps4? I heard that a lot

I think it's a bad deal for both
I imagine that part of the reason that Tomb Raider did so badly was it launched the same day as Fallout 4. Coming out the same day as one of the most anticipated games of the year usually doesn't end well, as Microsoft should of already knew with Alan Wake and RDR.
 

DR2K

Doesn't buy fighting games to actually play them
Jun 6, 2009
22,193
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Lol at people thinking sfv will have legs as it is, hell one month after launch & capcom still hasnt released a patch to fix its problems.

The only way capcom can get more sales is launching a goty edition later in the year for 19.99 $ max. after putting A LOT of effort on post launch patching/fixing/adding features & catching up on users demands ala driveclub.

They have a LONG way to go.
3 weeks = 1 month?

Game is going to be updated every month. So it's going to take a long time regardless of how well it does initially.
 

SnowHawk

Member
Nov 23, 2010
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With Uncharted 4 and Mirror's Edge Catalyst releasing in May, there's no way that the PS4 will not sell more than it did in February.
 

Gunslinger

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Sep 29, 2014
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Lol at people thinking sfv will have legs as it is, hell one month after launch & capcom still hasnt released a patch to fix its problems.

The only way capcom can get more sales is launching a goty edition later in the year for 19.99 $ max. after putting A LOT of effort on post launch patching/fixing/adding features & catching up on users demands ala driveclub.

They have a LONG way to go.
Trying too hard imo....
 

Steveo

Banned
Mar 29, 2015
304
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With how poorly Street Fighter V was handled, and how poor it's sold. It would be interesting/hilarious if Killer Instinct ended up being the more popular fighting game in the long run. It seems like Microsoft has done everything right with that game, and continues to grow it's fanbase which will only become larger with the Windows 10 release.
 

wapplew

Member
Mar 1, 2012
13,776
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530
With how poorly Street Fighter V was handled, and how poor it's sold. It would be interesting/hilarious if Killer Instinct ended up being the more popular fighting game in the long run. It seems like Microsoft has done everything right with that game, and continues to grow it's fanbase which will only become larger with the Windows 10 release.
KI didn't come out with a bang too, SFV is similar. Also, we don't have numbers to show how big is KI now.
 

RedAssedApe

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Aug 15, 2007
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With how poorly Street Fighter V was handled, and how poor it's sold. It would be interesting/hilarious if Killer Instinct ended up being the more popular fighting game in the long run. It seems like Microsoft has done everything right with that game, and continues to grow it's fanbase which will only become larger with the Windows 10 release.
i don't know any casuals who continue to play killer instinct ( yes anecdotal). If anything it's player base is going to be similar to sfv in that the people continuing to play are those that are into fighting game genre and probably also play sfv.

Also depends on how you gauge popularity. If units sold. Mkx and smash have already obliterated both of those games. If your gauge is tournaments the capcom fighterd aren't going anywhere. Unless of course capcom completely stops support.
 

Deimo5

Member
Jun 5, 2013
690
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With how poorly Street Fighter V was handled, and how poor it's sold. It would be interesting/hilarious if Killer Instinct ended up being the more popular fighting game in the long run. It seems like Microsoft has done everything right with that game, and continues to grow it's fanbase which will only become larger with the Windows 10 release.
'Poor for Street Fighter' is probably still better than Killer Instinct.
 

cordy

Banned
Dec 7, 2015
8,321
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~ 210k retail NPD PS4
~ 130k on Steam
~ 55k retail Media Create PS4

That leaves us with PS4 digital in US (5th in Feb) and EU (out of top 20, probably insignificanct numbers), and Japan (Famitsu estimates usually around 10-20% of retail) whole PAL and Asia retail sales on the PS4. Game didn't fire the Pal charts but debuted in top 5 in a lot of them (UK FW estimate around 24k iirc)

And that's combining shipped numbers (digital) and sold numbers (retail), shipped retail is even higher, no info whether channels are stuffed or normal.

Personally expecting shipped numbers to be above 1m by the end of the fiscal year for SFV which is still a disappointment.
Ah I see, great, makes sense.

1 mil by the end of the year is still far from Capcom's expectations but that's far from horrible. They can keep up the content and make it a success in due time. Add in a little Sony PSN+ limited version with a few characters to get people into the game, more extras and we'll be good.
 
Jun 14, 2015
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I imagine that part of the reason that Tomb Raider did so badly was it launched the same day as Fallout 4. Coming out the same day as one of the most anticipated games of the year usually doesn't end well, as Microsoft should of already knew with Alan Wake and RDR.
Yeh totally agree, I was working at Gamestation in the uk the day Alan wake/RDR released. Such a shame...for AW
 

Kosma

Banned
Feb 22, 2007
10,842
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No Man's Sky? One of the most hyped games on PS4. It will be realeased in June.
I seriously doubt No Mans Sky will do any great numbers. 250k maybe?

It looks more like a cult hit with a buzz in hardcore circles then a mainstream game.
 

John Wick

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Jul 23, 2015
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Gat damn, Street Fighter outsold by Naruto and Fire Emblem? What a time to be alive.

So much for that financial target... On the bright side it means the game should drop in price pretty fast. Good for us late adopters, but maybe not for Capcom. Ouch.
Sometimes developers and publishers need to be taught a lesson. This is one of those times. Next time don't release a game with 2 modes and 50% content missing just so you can make Evo bullshit in time.
 
Jun 18, 2014
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My happiness isn't controlled by console sales.

I have no idea why you're so adamant on the PS4 not selling more than 400k unless you're a time traveller.
May is a really poor sales month, historically. For Uncharted to get it up past 400K it would have to move as many bundles as Destiny did (300Kish) by itself. That is a tall order, as Halo 5 couldn't even do half of that with its bundle...
 
Jun 18, 2014
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I seriously doubt No Mans Sky will do any great numbers. 250k maybe?

It looks more like a cult hit with a buzz in hardcore circles then a mainstream game.
Our retail guys are saying it is doing well over prediction for pre orders. No idea how much that is without a base line, but it is poised to be more than a cult hit, as least at the moment.

Edit: Double post. Thread is dad.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
710
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Have you ever looked into game theory? Because if Microsoft chooses to stay put, they get creamed regardless of what Sony does.
Do you know the saying "There are no winners in race to the bottom"?

Sure, Microsoft could try a desperation move by undercutting Sony, but what then? They didn't really make a dent in Sony's sales, when they were $50 cheaper. Why would anything change the second time they tried the same? Not to mention the fact that they are probably losing money with every sold console.

So, they can stay at this price level, grow their install base slower but lose less money in the process. Or they could cut the price, perhaps have a brief spike in sales, then come back to the earlier levels but lose more money.

Honestly, I think Xbox One is screwed regardless of what MS does. And they seem to be more interested in moving to Windows 10 anyway.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
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Reading some of the posts in this thread, I get a strange feeling that regardless of how well the PS4 performs in May relative to previous market leaders, the console doomsayers will be on a roll in the NPD thread.
 

jelly

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Oct 14, 2013
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Microsoft aren't leaving console hardware, they screwed up with Xbox One and are more likely to go down or go nowhere so they are trying something new which will be Windows 10 PC gaming and new Xbox hardware. Accepted their fate but not sitting still for the next 4-5 years getting hammered. It might work, it might not but they've realised it's worth trying if Xbox One has plateaued or worse.
 

jahasaja

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Mar 31, 2015
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Microsoft aren't leaving console hardware, they screwed up with Xbox One and are more likely to go down or go nowhere so they are trying something new which will be Windows 10 PC gaming and new Xbox hardware. Accepted their fate but not sitting still for the next 4-5 years getting hammered. It might work, it might not but they've realised it's worth trying if Xbox One has plateaued or worse.
This could be true. But their messaging and actions these last few months have inevitably given rise to speculations.
 

Maintenance

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Nov 16, 2013
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How old are you?
SFV more than likely sold well digital. Probably much better than Naruto and FE.
Such denial.

---

I waited until the reports came out to actually talk about it, so now that they're out I can finally say it: get rekt, Capcom. That's what you get for releasing an Alpha.
 

AniHawk

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Jun 7, 2004
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Reading some of the posts in this thread, I get a strange feeling that regardless of how well the PS4 performs in May relative to previous market leaders, the console doomsayers will be on a roll in the NPD thread.
the ps4 being the only platform doing great in the best overall region for dedicated hardware this gen isn't really a cause for celebration unless you really super like ps4.

i mean aren't there enough signs around to show where things are clearly shifting? does gametrailers shuttering, microsoft rethinking their business in hardware, companies trying one last time for a shot a the rhythm game glory days, and major companies pulling out of e3 kind of send any sort of warning signal that the dedicated industry is at least in serious trouble?
 

Javin98

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Nov 30, 2014
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the ps4 being the only platform doing great in the best overall region for dedicated hardware this gen isn't really a cause for celebration unless you really super like ps4.

i mean aren't there enough signs around to show where things are clearly shifting? does gametrailers shuttering, microsoft rethinking their business in hardware, companies trying one last time for a shot a the rhythm game glory days, and major companies pulling out of e3 kind of send any sort of warning signal that the dedicated industry is at least in serious trouble?
Hey, man, why are you talking about the industry in serious trouble? I was just talking about the doomsayers saying crap like "Even Uncharted 4 couldn't bring the PS4 past 400K!" and "Sony's biggest exclusive title wasn't that big after all". Sure, the industry is in decline, but I didn't mean that at all in my post. :p

Why do you think I brought up May specifically? The past two months have shown a YoY drop for overall hardware sales with only the PS4 being up.
 

eFKac

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Nov 13, 2014
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PS4 continues to dominate the market, unjustified in my opinion, but well done Sony.
Hey nice, I think it's a first in this thread! Not a bad track record.
No bans either I think? Someone made a bet on it in the prediction thread iirc :-D
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
17,350
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"Even Uncharted 4 couldn't bring the PS4 past 400K!".
The quote was "PS4 won't break 300K the month of Uncharted release."

--

Also consoles are legit dead. The PS4 is just muddying the clear situation by being undead.
 

Kosma

Banned
Feb 22, 2007
10,842
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the ps4 being the only platform doing great in the best overall region for dedicated hardware this gen isn't really a cause for celebration unless you really super like ps4.

i mean aren't there enough signs around to show where things are clearly shifting? does gametrailers shuttering, microsoft rethinking their business in hardware, companies trying one last time for a shot a the rhythm game glory days, and major companies pulling out of e3 kind of send any sort of warning signal that the dedicated industry is at least in serious trouble?
A very specific subset of the industry is in a transitional phase.

Gaming on dedicated consoles will be fine for ages, as long as there are millions of people willing to fork over big bucks there will be AAA games made.

Some companies will go bust, some others will fill the void. Some new business models will become more dominant.
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
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The quote was "PS4 won't break 300K the month of Uncharted release."

--

Also consoles are legit dead. The PS4 is just muddying the clear situation by being undead.
No, I meant that the doomsayers will be saying that. I agree that Uncharted 4 won't push the PS4 past 400K, but that's to be expected in May.
 

benny_a

extra source of jiggaflops
Apr 25, 2009
17,350
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No, I meant that the doomsayers will be saying that. I agree that Uncharted 4 won't push the PS4 past 400K, but that's to be expected in May.
Maybe I just don't get the uniqueness of May in that. These threads always have historically ignorant posters that try to spin the results harder than the ones being paid for it and this results sometimes in bans because it gets a heated back and forth and other times in ridicule and another attempt is launched later.

This is GAF, everyone can click on every thread and give their opinion even if it isn't a regular reader and thus ostensibly more well informed on the topic.

That's the whole point, really. Many don't realize that May is a low point for sales.
I meant more why fret over this in March. It's 3 months from now that this hypothetical situation is going to play out. :p
 

Javin98

Banned
Nov 30, 2014
6,851
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Maybe I just don't get the uniqueness of May in that. These threads always have historically ignorant posters that try to spin the results harder than the ones being paid for it and this results sometimes in bans because it gets a heated back and forth and other times in ridicule and another attempt is launched later.

This is GAF, everyone can click on every thread and give their opinion even if it isn't a regular reader and thus ostensibly more well informed on the topic.
That's the whole point, really. Many don't realize that May is a low point for sales.
 

Oersted

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Mar 14, 2012
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Ah I see, great, makes sense.

1 mil by the end of the year is still far from Capcom's expectations but that's far from horrible. They can keep up the content and make it a success in due time. Add in a little Sony PSN+ limited version with a few characters to get people into the game, more extras and we'll be good.
Selling less than half what you expect from one of your biggest franchises is bad. Monster Hunter and Street Fighter were supposed to push numbers higher till March.

Their financial briefing gonna be interesting.
 

Raitaro

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May 9, 2013
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Such denial.

---

I waited until the reports came out to actually talk about it, so now that they're out I can finally say it: get rekt, Capcom. That's what you get for releasing an Alpha.
I have been quite disappointed in SFV as well but I still don't really get a viewpoint as this one to be honest.

Looking at the larger picture, i.e. larger than "I wasted 60 bucks, f*ck Crapcom!", what would be the benefit of having no more SF ever? Since that is what the message will be that the suits at Capcom are getting from these - much inflated bad word of mouth driven - sales numbers. Not the why, like that we wanted more modes etc, no only the cold bottom line message that SF is no longer financially viable. And yes, that would in large part be because of Capcom's own tonedeaf / money saving decisions, for which they do indeed deserve criticism, but at the end of the day I care for the SF brand and will be sad if we - as the fans - have helped ruin its chances by being overly critical and loud in our rants.

There's a difference between being a corporate shill and being a loyal fan of a series that would even spend 60 bucks on an incomplete product in the hopes that it will help sustain a series that is important to them while giving constructive criticism to its creators to help improve said product. That said, I might be a naive idiot again.