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NPD Sales Results for February 2016 [Up1: Fire Emblem]

AniHawk

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Jun 7, 2004
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A very specific subset of the industry is in a transitional phase.

Gaming on dedicated consoles will be fine for ages, as long as there are millions of people willing to fork over big bucks there will be AAA games made.

Some companies will go bust, some others will fill the void. Some new business models will become more dominant.
i think we've had at least ten years to get used to the 'some companies will go bust' part (which is very generous wording), but what companies have been filling the void?
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
710
0
0
Helsinki, Finland
A very specific subset of the industry is in a transitional phase.

Gaming on dedicated consoles will be fine for ages, as long as there are millions of people willing to fork over big bucks there will be AAA games made.

Some companies will go bust, some others will fill the void. Some new business models will become more dominant.
Yep.

There are many trends converging. On one hand, mobile gaming and connected TVs are offering an alternative to traditional gaming, and traditional platform vendors will have to find new ways to differentiate. I am not sure, what Sony's secret is, but I'd be willing to bet that it's largely brand. Why Nintendo doesn't fare as well, then? Poor marketing, clinging too much to the past, something?

On the other hand, Youtube, streaming and such services make dedicated video gaming sites obsolete. Fall of Gametrailers is disappointing, but not surprising, given that they offer little that other sites or even individual streamers cannot. (I blame you most, Pewdiepie!) GT didn't evolve fast enough.

Internet also has changed the role of trade shows. EA and Activision have direct communication channels to their audience, so it doesn't really make sense to spend millions in showing off their stuff to a few thousand people, when they reach millions of people with a fraction of the cost. Sucks to be E3 organizer, though. I wonder what happens with TGS and Gamescom.

Finally, the addressable audience has not shrunk. There are at least, what, 40 million(?) individual gamers out there, and the number of core gamers may be larger than it was same time last generation. Also, fewer Xbox owners does not mean fewer gamers, if gamers are transitioning from Xbox to PS. (Would be the same the other way around.)

Activision doesn't really care, if you buy your yearly calladoody on Xbox or PS, only that you buy it. And somebody owning both Xbox and PS is not a more profitable customer to a publisher than somebody owning only one of those.

This industry is not vanishing. It's simply changing.
 

RexNovis

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I agree. And I just want to add that people including myself totally underestimated the importance of PS4's sharing capabilities.
For real. Its hard to overstate how much it has impacted the industry. We've seen it fuel massive success in both HW and SW and we've also seen it lead to certain SW getting raked over the coals. Its definitely one of the biggest game changers this gen.

I wouldve thought share play would be a much bigger deal than it currenty is as well but its basically been met with the enthusiasm of a wet fart by consumers as far as I can tell.
 

Maintenance

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Nov 16, 2013
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I have been quite disappointed in SFV as well but I still don't really get a viewpoint as this one to be honest.

Looking at the larger picture, i.e. larger than "I wasted 60 bucks, f*ck Crapcom!", what would be the benefit of having no more SF ever? Since that is what the message will be that the suits at Capcom are getting from these - much inflated bad word of mouth driven - sales numbers. Not the why, like that we wanted more modes etc, no only the cold bottom line message that SF is no longer financially viable. And yes, that would in large part be because of Capcom's own tonedeaf / money saving decisions, for which they do indeed deserve criticism, but at the end of the day I care for the SF brand and will be sad if we - as the fans - have helped ruin its chances by being overly critical and loud in our rants.

There's a difference between being a corporate shill and being a loyal fan of a series that would even spend 60 bucks on an incomplete product in the hopes that it will help sustain a series that is important to them while giving constructive criticism to its creators to help improve said product. That said, I might be a naive idiot again.
I bought SFV day zero, first time I would play SF since the SNES. I heard that it would not have a lot of content, but I thought I could live with that. The moment I opened the game and saw the content the only word that could describe it was disappointment. I then refunded it, and for a moment I thought that I should've waited. But then Capcom came forward and said what they would fix, and I was glad that I got my money back.
 

AniHawk

Member
Jun 7, 2004
74,679
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Yep.

There are many trends converging. On one hand, mobile gaming and connected TVs are offering an alternative to traditional gaming, and traditional platform vendors will have to find new ways to differentiate. I am not sure, what Sony's secret is, but I'd be willing to bet that it's largely brand. Why Nintendo doesn't fare as well, then? Poor marketing, clinging too much to the past, something?

On the other hand, Youtube, streaming and such services make dedicated video gaming sites obsolete. Fall of Gametrailers is disappointing, but not surprising, given that they offer little that other sites or even individual streamers cannot. (I blame you most, Pewdiepie!) GT didn't evolve fast enough.

Internet also has changed the role of trade shows. EA and Activision have direct communication channels to their audience, so it doesn't really make sense to spend millions in showing off their stuff to a few thousand people, when they reach millions of people with a fraction of the cost. Sucks to be E3 organizer, though. I wonder what happens with TGS and Gamescom.

Finally, the addressable audience has not shrunk. There are at least, what, 40 million(?) individual gamers out there, and the number of core gamers may be larger than it was same time last generation. Also, fewer Xbox owners does not mean fewer gamers, if gamers are transitioning from Xbox to PS. (Would be the same the other way around.)

Activision doesn't really care, if you buy your yearly calladoody on Xbox or PS, only that you buy it. And somebody owning both Xbox and PS is not a more profitable customer to a publisher than somebody owning only one of those.

This industry is not vanishing. It's simply changing.
it's not a matter of the industry vanishing, but how the dedicated market is going away. you probably won't have a playstation 6. you'll probably have the sixth generation of playstation 5. and gamestop will be back to what they were in the 90s - small stores dedicated to a niche market.

traditional ways of experiencing platforms going away means that in ten years, we won't have the same kind of machines as today. it's youtubers and internet word of mouth trying out small things on steam that makes indie games like five nights at freddy's and undertale big, not concerted efforts from big publishers and their marketing teams targeting traditional media sites for coverage. e3 going away only highlights the reduced importance of retail, where dedicated gaming platforms have an actual presence not with just their systems but entire sections. ouya might have actually done better a generation earlier if it had a little slot for games instead of being shoved off to the side at target. but that's where i see dedicated consoles going. you won't be able to find them unless you know where to look.
 

Kosma

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Feb 22, 2007
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@JRYI: agree!

If anything even I'd say people owning two or three consoles is a net loss for the industry as the money they would maybe have spent on additional games is held up in hardware, which generates no profit.

i think we've had at least ten years to get used to the 'some companies will go bust' part (which is very generous wording), but what companies have been filling the void?
I don't know where to begin because there is so much stuff now going on that it's hard for anyone that isn't doing this for a living to get a proper overview. The industry is so segmented and diverse now.

Just a few high profile success stories:
-Wargaming have a 400 million USD turnover on games like WoT.
-CDPR selling 10 million copies of Witcher 3.
-Minecraft and Mojang.
-Kickstarter funding for many hardcore projects like Banner Saga, Shadowrun etc.
-Huge revival of adventure games due to digital frontstores

All of these things happening in the last 10/5 years!

traditional ways of experiencing platforms going away means that in ten years, we won't have the same kind of machines as today. it's youtubers and internet word of mouth trying out small things on steam that makes indie games like five nights at freddy's and undertale big, not concerted efforts from big publishers and their marketing teams targeting traditional media sites for coverage. e3 going away only highlights the reduced importance of retail, where dedicated gaming platforms have an actual presence not with just their systems but entire sections. ouya might have actually done better a generation earlier if it had a little slot for games instead of being shoved off to the side at target. but that's where i see dedicated consoles going. you won't be able to find them unless you know where to look.
People bought like what, 50 million copies of GTA?
10 million Destiny?
30 million Diablo 3?

No one is going to leave that money on the table, trust me.
 

AniHawk

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Jun 7, 2004
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@JRYI: agree!

If anything even I'd say people owning two or three consoles is a net loss for the industry as the money they would maybe have spent on additional games is held up in hardware, which generates no profit.



I don't know where to begin because there is so much stuff now going on that it's hard for anyone that isn't doing this for a living to get a proper overview. The industry is so segmented and diverse now.

Just a few high profile success stories:
-Wargaming have a 400 million USD turnover on games like WoT.
-CDPR selling 10 million copies of Witcher 3.
-Minecraft and Mojang.
-Kickstarter funding for many hardcore projects like Banner Saga, Shadowrun etc.
-Huge revival of adventure games due to digital frontstores

All of these things happening in the last 10/5 years!



People bought like what, 50 million copies of GTA?
10 million Destiny?
30 million Diablo 3?

No one is going to leave that money on the table, trust me.
okay. you're talking about the video game industry doing well. it obviously is. i'm talking about dedicated platforms doing well, which almost all of them are not.
 

Kosma

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Feb 22, 2007
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Well I think it's tied to each other, I don't see Sony not releasing a PS6 just because they might only sell 50 million units over 5 years.

The total number of dedicated units might decline but there is still an enormous market.
 

AniHawk

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Aren't most ignoring Nintendo when they say the console market is healthy?
i mention dedicated market because it includes handhelds. and people might mention outside competition but that is kind of the point.

Well I think it's tied to each other, I don't see Sony not releasing a PS6 just because they might only sell 50 million units over 5 years.

The total number of dedicated units might decline but there is still an enormous market.
i expect the sixth generation ps5 to be essentially what a ps6 would be for us. but as time goes on, disc-based or card-based platforms will be supported less and less until they're not supported at all. and then whatever 'playstation 5' is will be rolled into other sony platforms on pcs and boxes to hook up to your television. i think this is what microsoft is actually trying to jump ahead on with xbox one instead of waiting two more years for another refresh.
 

geordiemp

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I am not sure, what Sony's secret is, but I'd be willing to bet that it's largely brand. Why Nintendo doesn't fare as well, then? Poor marketing, clinging too much to the past, something?
Quite simple imo, the Ps4 is the best cost hardware to performance ratio proposition right now, or you could call it value of the hardware.

Anecdotal - I was 360 last gen, so was most of my friends list (UK), we all moved to Ps4 when Xb1 could not run ghosts past 720p (remember the GAF meltdowns...this was the benchmark that killed Xb1).

How big titles perform means allot at the start of a gen, so a COD, GTA, Battlefied or other big 3rd party seller running poorly is a big no no. Nintendo was not in this fight.

Nintendo ? They are still a gen or 2 behind hardware console wise ...surely this is well understood by everybody and his dog by now..Nintendo like their Nintendo like profits even on hardware, so it is what it is.

FYI I went Wii to Ps3 to Xb360 to Ps4. All because the 3rd party stuff just ran better, I have no allegiance, make a good console and I buy it.

i expect the sixth generation ps5 to be essentially what a ps6 would be for us. but as time goes on, disc-based or card-based platforms will be supported less and less until they're not supported at all. and then whatever 'playstation 5' is will be rolled into other sony platforms on pcs and boxes to hook up to your television. i think this is what microsoft is actually trying to jump ahead on with xbox one instead of waiting two more years for another refresh.
I think Sony will release a Ps5 that is backwards compatible with Ps4. MS will do the same for Xb2 to Xb1 and have almost said so in loose wording. The x86 APU in both can be upgraded when 14 nm and Gddr5x is affordable andboth consoles will make big improvements and have a Ps4 / Xb1 mode. Sony would be crazy not to especially if MS are going this route of regular hardware upgrades.

Both Ps5 and Xb2 will need blu ray drives ....
 

Knuf

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Jul 1, 2013
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Over 400k PS4 sold in February? Goddamn.

[In this very thread] Now Sony look stupid for buying SFV exclusivity. Mega bomba for a big franchise.
[On Uncharted 4] Wow this game is in development hell for sure. Brace yourselves for a bomba.
[On No Man's Sky] $60? lol try $20 bucks max.
Will wait for steam sale bomba price.
DAT post history
and from his history first page alone
.
 
Jun 27, 2010
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Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm (PS4, Xbox One) - The PS4 version of this game alone outsold Street Fighter V
Wow. This is unexpected.

Although the signs were there SF5 wouldn't do well after its lacklustre performance in the PAL charts.
 
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And the biggest games are yet to come...

This year is going to be a trully bloodbath
What are the biggest games this year? I think the PS4 is doing more than fine without exclusives, so well I would say that exclusives are not going to cause a massive amount of extra sales. Exclusives dont really matter this gen.
 

Kosma

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Feb 22, 2007
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i expect the sixth generation ps5 to be essentially what a ps6 would be for us. but as time goes on, disc-based or card-based platforms will be supported less and less until they're not supported at all. and then whatever 'playstation 5' is will be rolled into other sony platforms on pcs and boxes to hook up to your television. i think this is what microsoft is actually trying to jump ahead on with xbox one instead of waiting two more years for another refresh.
As is Sony with Playstation Now.

I do think there might always be a market for dedicated "fill in whatever" simply because enthusiasts will want the best, the latest, and are willing to pay for it.

The fact that streaming "might" be the future for the masses in a far far away future doesn't mean that Sony or whoever wouldn't want to release a standalone product for enthusiasts.

I mean Netflix, HBO GO etc. are huge, but so will be the BR sales of Star Wars, you know what I mean? The profit margin on that will be insane and companies want to tap into that.
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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What are the biggest games this year? I think the PS4 is doing more than fine without exclusives, so well I would say that exclusives are not going to cause a massive amount of extra sales. Exclusives dont really matter this gen.
yeah, PS4 will be driven by price, the major games are coming every year, Sony exclusives aren't a big selling point.

VR could be a factor too, but I believe will sell essentially for people that already has a PS4.
 
Isn't that a first this gen, PS4 best seller for a Lego game?
Yes. Hell, just last summer Lego Jurassic World (the most recent Lego game to chart) had its PS4 version placing third in its opening month of June, behind both Xbox platforms. For July it dropped to second-to-last among SKUs, and held that ranking for August as well. So clearly the timed exclusive DLC seems to be working. Ugh.
 
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What are the biggest games this year? I think the PS4 is doing more than fine without exclusives, so well I would say that exclusives are not going to cause a massive amount of extra sales. Exclusives dont really matter this gen.
Exclusives aren't "the biggest games" though, I'm pretty sure he meant games like CoD, BF etc.
 

RexNovis

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i mention dedicated market because it includes handhelds. and people might mention outside competition but that is kind of the point.
Handhelds and Home consoles are widely different markets. The slow inevitable sales collapse for one isn't going to doom the other. I don't understand why people insist on treating handhelds and home consoles as if they're comparable. In today's world they are not comparable.

I'm seriously sick of this dedicated hardware is doomed bullshit. We have proof it's not. It is not the markets fault that two dedicated hardware manufacturers came out with hardware that was widely unappealing to the market at large. That's in the manufacturers not the market. People are buying the HW they want to buy and it's selling just fine.
 

allan-bh

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Home Consoles are in clear decline, we can't just look for PS4, neither make excuses as if Wii crowd doesn't matter.
 
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Exclusives aren't "the biggest games" though, I'm pretty sure he meant games like CoD, BF etc.
ah yeah deffo! it looks like Sony is doing the marketing support for those big games this gen, just like MS did last gen, It mkaes sense. Thats what drives the sales. They will Have the COD deal again etc
 

geordiemp

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Home Consoles are in clear decline, we can't just look for PS4.
I disagree, MS have said they are looking at an improved hardware console - it would help them as it does not look good that most games run better on Ps4 atm.

Nintendo are a gen behind (a bricks a brick), but many are waiting on Nx.

So to me both sony competitors are perceived to be changing from what they have been saying, that is not a good message to joe public considering buying hardware right now that they expect to be good for another 4-5 years.
 
Jun 27, 2010
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Home Consoles are in clear decline, we can't just look for PS4, neither make excuses as if Wii crowd doesn't matter.
If the Wii hadn't happened, wouldn't console sales actually be pretty healthy right now? I'm not saying we should ignore the audience the Wii reached, but at the same time it did have a crossover appeal that will be incredibly hard for any console to replicate.

Maybe PSVR will be the thing that has the same impact?
 

AniHawk

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Handhelds and Home consoles are widely different markets. The slow inevitable sales collapse for one isn't going to doom the other. I don't understand why people insist on treating handhelds and home consoles as if they're comparable. In today's world they are not comparable.
the ability for one strong dedicated market to fail signals a strong possibility that another strong market can fail just as easily. there's definitely more similarities between consoles and handhelds than there are differences. considering how those games are marketed and sold, the only difference tends to be form factor, which is a pretty arbitrary way to create a useless division, especially when some games are seeing a handheld and console release, or when those lines are blurred more directly like ps tv or the anticipated direction for nx.

I'm seriously sick of this dedicated hardware is doomed bullshit. We have proof it's not. It is not the markets fault that two dedicated hardware manufacturers came out with hardware that was widely unappealing to the market at large. That's in the manufacturers not the market. People are buying the HW they want to buy and it's selling just fine.
it's not that dedicated hardware is doomed. it's in decline, and it will exist in the form of something more for hobbyists and older people who can't let go of the past. it's the market that fuels dedicated hardware that's doomed. that's the part that isn't sustainable - we're not going to be able to support rising development costs on shrinking userbases and lower software sales. even stagnant software sales is bad with rising development costs. and the few big publishers that remain don't have the same level of control or know-how when it comes to the new media sites. the old model is decaying and falling apart, and companies are visibly wanting out. it's not a coincidence that ea's set up their own membership program and online retailer, or that ubisoft, warner bros., and square-enix have made similar attempts.
 
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ENGLAND!!
Ugh, now I wnat to know how many people bought the other versions of Fire Emblem as DLC and how many people also bought the Season Pass that doesnt include them.

The fact that we already know that there is also going to be a 2nd Season Pass too!

IntSys and Nintendo are managing to make this niche franchise in one of their big hits.
It truly is a breath of fresh air to see a new tier A Nintendo franchise come into fruitation. The icing on the cake will be when they finally release it in Europe!

The fact FE has nearly sold half a million in US alone in just a week is crazy!
 

Hydrargyrus

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What are the biggest games this year? I think the PS4 is doing more than fine without exclusives, so well I would say that exclusives are not going to cause a massive amount of extra sales. Exclusives dont really matter this gen.
For biggest games I mean: COD, battlefield-type, this year's Destiny...
I'm not talking only about exclusive (even I'm sure that Uncharted 4 will move a lot of HW). But if PS4 is able to sell >400k in february, were are going to see massive numbers in the months with the biggest games, more if there is some price drop associated or a slim model
 

RexNovis

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Home Consoles are in clear decline, we can't just look for PS4.
Well when you have two manufacturers making what amounts to brain dead decisions with their HW obviously that's gonna be bad. The failure of two and the success of one still shows there is a market. If Nintendo and MS hadn't made such idiotic decisions regarding their HW they would've sold more. how is that some dooming industry trend? People said the same thing before XB1 and PS4 came out that the WiiU showed that the console market was dead. Well guess what it's not. Nintendo just made a product people don't want. It's baffling to me that people are literally making the same argument when we have a massive success sitting right in front of us.

People are intent on leaping to conclusions based on flawed logic. People are acting like every console is supposed to sell crazy numbers when it's just not true it has to be an appealing product in order to drive sales they aren't just garuntreed to happen. What we have this gen are a Sega Saturn and a GameCube. Products that people by and large did not want to buy. Did those products = the end of dedicated HW? No because there were other products that were successful thanks to actually appealing to the market.
 

jryi

Senior Analyst, Fanboy Drivel Research Partners LLC
Jun 11, 2013
710
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Helsinki, Finland
Quite simple imo, the Ps4 is the best cost hardware to performance ratio proposition right now, or you could call it value of the hardware.

Anecdotal - I was 360 last gen, so was most of my friends list (UK), we all moved to Ps4 when Xb1 could not run ghosts past 720p (remember the GAF meltdowns...this was the benchmark that killed Xb1).
But here's the thing: you represent the segment that already knows that they are buying at least one console each generation (as do I, although I am very much inclined to going with Sony every generation). So for you the choice is "do I buy Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo".

There are other segments who do not frame the choice like that. Instead, they are thinking "do I buy a console or a tablet", or "I already have a phone, should I also buy something that plays games". Being the top dog in a non-interesting product category is the same as being a non-interesting product.

So in a sense I do agree with anihawk: it is going to get more difficult for dedicated gaming platforms. And that is what I alluded to when I said that I don't know what Sony did right. Later on in this generation (maybe this coming summer) PS4 may get to be the de facto FIFA device (unless Apple TV becomes that), and then the road is clear to casual markets.

I choose to be optimistic. But my optimism doesn't guarantee that we will have dedicated gaming devices in the year 2020.