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NPD Sales Results for February 2016 [Up1: Fire Emblem]

geordiemp

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But here's the thing: you represent the segment that already knows that they are buying at least one console each generation (as do I, although I am very much inclined to going with Sony every generation). So for you the choice is "do I buy Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo".

There are other segments who do not frame the choice like that. Instead, they are thinking "do I buy a console or a tablet", or "I already have a phone, should I also buy something that plays games"..
PC gamers that game on mouse and keyboard will still do so. There is a large number that want to use twin stick controllers on a big TV in living room (and not mix with the PC crowd - you cannot play COD on console agsint mouse and keyboard for example.....it will NEVER mix, not getting into FOV / key macros other PC mods).

As long as that is the case, there will be consoles in 2020.

Who will be the top dog in 2020 is another matter.
 
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I expected more of Street Fighter. I don't even know what naruto is and it outsold SFV.

I would have bought it if it was on Xbox.

Surely the amount of people who only have Xbox and not PC/Ps4's like me is pretty insignificant though?

Seems like word of mouth killed it's launch more than anything.
 

allan-bh

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If the Wii hadn't happened, wouldn't console sales actually be pretty healthy right now? I'm not saying we should ignore the audience the Wii reached, but at the same time it did have a crossover appeal that will be incredibly hard for any console to replicate.

Maybe PSVR will be the thing that has the same impact?
lt looks like that current gen will struggle to hit PS2/XBX/NGC numbers, and even if Wii wasn't a phenomenon, gen 7 likely would register an increase anyway.

This is the first time since Nintendo launched the NES that a new gen will go down and maybe so down that will be behind the last 2 generations.

About VR, too expensive.
 

AniHawk

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If the Wii hadn't happened, wouldn't console sales actually be pretty healthy right now? I'm not saying we should ignore the audience the Wii reached, but at the same time it did have a crossover appeal that will be incredibly hard for any console to replicate.

Maybe PSVR will be the thing that has the same impact?
the problem is that people see the 360 and ps3 because of what happened in 2009-2012, and not what happened in 2005-2008. it's the same way people would prop up 3ds as a super success, since it was outselling the 3ds at a similar point in time. but the comparison was useless because the ds didn't start taking off until the ds lite came out about 18 months after the platform launched in 2004. so people wind up pretending the 3ds was a more successful platform than this thing that sold 150m+ units and was above criticism.

the same is true of the 360 and ps3. however while the ps4 is doing way better than ps3 and likely will do so until the end of the generation, the xb1 is like the 3ds in that it's only on borrowed time. microsoft sold 40 million 360s in the first five years of the system's life. the other 40m+ came from after the kinect came out and became the next wii. from 2010-2011, the system was selling like crazy, and it's where the platform really put in its work.

so the truth in the xb1 is that unless something unusual happens like hololens becoming the new hotness or refreshes of xb1 bring success to the brand and platform, the xb1 is probably going to sell worse than the 360.
 

AncientDiety

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You know - no games and stuff. The PS4 list of exclusives is completely barren. And why is no third party support or indies - what's up with that? Everyone's buying it just because of Microsoft's blunders clearly.
ROFL what nonsense, completely barren? Compared to who? Did you see PS4's lineup this year? Consumers decided what is the best system, it's not rocket science. Can't believe the PS4 has no games is a thing some salty people are posting. PS4 has more games then the competition. Sony's worst selling console sold as much as MS best selling...ps4 would have sold well regardless. Brand is a thing. Your saying no one would be buying ps4 if MS didn't try DRM?
 

Genio88

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Woah Far Cry Primal did very well, sold even better than 4 despite being a smaller and cheaper game but sold at the same full price
 

RexNovis

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the ability for one strong dedicated market to fail signals a strong possibility that another strong market can fail just as easily. there's definitely more similarities between consoles and handhelds than there are differences. considering how those games are marketed and sold, the only difference tends to be form factor, which is a pretty arbitrary way to create a useless division, especially when some games are seeing a handheld and console release, or when those lines are blurred more directly like ps tv or the anticipated direction for nx.
Except we have sales for both HW and SW that show how completely different the majority markets for Handhrld and Home consoles are. There's also the matter of them competing with completely different things. It seems disingenuous to equate the two and say the sharp decline of one spells the inevitable decline of the other.

it's not that dedicated hardware is doomed. it's in decline, and it will exist in the form of something more for hobbyists and older people who can't let go of the past. it's the market that fuels dedicated hardware that's doomed. that's the part that isn't sustainable - we're not going to be able to support rising development costs on shrinking userbases and lower software sales. even stagnant software sales is bad with rising development costs. and the few big publishers that remain don't have the same level of control or know-how when it comes to the new media sites. the old model is decaying and falling apart, and companies are visibly wanting out. it's not a coincidence that ea's set up their own membership program and online retailer, or that ubisoft, warner bros., and square-enix have made similar attempts.
Which exactly why we are seeing the rise of alternate development models be they independent developers, crowd funded development or smaller budget contracted development. The inevitable implosion of AAA publishers budget wars no longer represents a collapse of gaming as a whole. This is backed up even further with successes like Minecraft, Undertale, Shovel Knight, Telltale Games etc. what we are looking at is an explosion in variety of gaming . One that would only be accelerated by the potential collapse of big budget obsessively focus tested AAA games. The unsustanabilty of big budgets is no longer a death knell nor is it in danger of happening anytime soon with big games consistently breaking sales records and with the increased profit margins of digital distribution rising.
 

Ducktail

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Capcom says Street Fighter is a service.

Want the game to last 5 years.

Says it’s just day one.

Shipped the game in a barebones state likely knowing it would be lukewarm received at best until more content is added

Only projected to ship 2 million by end of March

Could be anywhere from 500-700K now

Could easily sell discounted versions to update the game, even a free-to-play one since the game is a “service"

Stated themselves they want the bulk of sales to come from the community spending money on the store, not one off fans who buy the game and trade it in a month later.

Not every game has to debut 2.5 million units to be successful

-_- and that’s for crapping on a genre I care deeply about.
You know what they say about first impressions, right?

I'm not sure they can get past this abysmal launch- They can keep updating the game all they want, but people might have moved on to something different- I absolutely love the game, but they shouldn't have released it without core single player modes that MK has had for years now. Hell, even Guilty Gear.

I'll keep playing this forever :(
 

RexNovis

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This "sales are bad guys things are declining. Feel bad" crap that constantly happens in NPD reeks of "oh my prefered platform is performing terribly it must be the markets fault it can't be my prefered platforms fault it's so great." People need to wake up and realize that the majority of the platforms available this gen are not appealing to the market at large and that this is an indication of their failures not a failure of the market itself. The success of one platform that is appealing to the market at large should be proof enough of that.
 

AniHawk

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Except we have sales for both HW and SW that show how completely different the majority markets for Handhrld and Home consoles are. There's also the matter of them competing with completely different things. It seems disingenuous to equate the two and say the sharp decline of one spells the inevitable decline of the other.
i think this is a very regional way of looking at the industry to be honest. you're likely someone from europe or the us, but in japan? handhelds are the dedicated gaming market, and it's the console that's conceptually a dead end. over there, it's where major franchises exist, sometimes first and foremost (monster hunter, pokemon, yo-kai watch). over there, the way games are sold and marketed is super similar to the us - games are sold in stores, announcements and ads are done in magazines and online. it seems incredibly disingenuous to discount a segment of the market that is the dedicated marketplace in one part of the world just because you have a subjective view of how a form factor is compared to another form factor in the united states. hell, if we're going to talk about what systems 'matter' because of attach ratios, the super nes and any ds would be closer than the super nes and the gamecube.

Which exactly why we are seeing the rise of alternate development models be they independent developers, crowd funded development or smaller budget contracted development. The inevitable implosion of AAA publishers budget wars no longer represents a collapse of gaming as a whole. This is backed up even further with successes like Minecraft, Undertale, Shovel Knight, Telltale Games etc. what we are looking at is an explosion in variety of gaming . One that would only be accelerated by the potential collapse of big budget obsessively focus tested AAA games. The unsustanabilty of big budgets is no longer a death knell nor is it in danger of happening anytime soon with big games consistently breaking sales records and with the increased profit margins of digital distribution rising.
i never suggested that gaming as a whole was in danger of a collapse. dedicated hardware isn't the video game industry. it's an increasingly irrelevant part of it.

This "sales are bad guys things are declining. Feel bad" crap that constantly happens in NPD reeks of "oh my prefered platform is performing terribly it must be the markets fault it can't be my prefered platforms fault it's so great." People need to wake up and realize that the majority of the platforms available this gen are not appealing to the market at large and that this is an indication of their failures not a failure of the market itself. The success of one platform that is appealing to the market at large should be proof enough of that.
i've been pretty consistent in highlighting the ps4 as the one platform that should at least surpass its predecessor and have it pegged to outdo it by roughly 25%. i was also quick to voice concern over the ps vita failing as i felt it would be a bad sign for handhelds in particular if it didn't reach a decent sized market. i do feel compelled to respond to those trumpeting the dedicated industry as doing 'just fine!' and mocking those who are realizing there's a decline just because one platform is doing swell.
 

RexNovis

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i think this is a very regional way of looking at the industry to be honest. you're likely someone from europe or the us, but in japan? handhelds are the dedicated gaming market, and it's the console that's conceptually a dead end. over there, it's where major franchises exist, sometimes first and foremost (monster hunter, pokemon, yo-kai watch). over there, the way games are sold and marketed is super similar to the us - games are sold in stores, announcements and ads are done in magazines and online. it seems incredibly disingenuous to discount a segment of the market that is the dedicated marketplace in one part of the world just because you have a subjective view of how a form factor is compared to another form factor in the united states. hell, if we're going to talk about what systems 'matter' because of attach ratios, the super nes and any ds would be closer than the super nes and the gamecube.
I'm in Japan. I'm well aware of the gaming preferences here and of anything they serve to prove my point that Home and handheld consoles are separate markers. It just so happens Japan is the inverse of the rest of the world where the handheld market is successful and the home market is not. It's further proof that these markets don't intersect as much as you seem to believe they do. The success or decline of one is not reflected by the success or decline of the other. That's just not how it works. They don't appeal to the sane people nor do they compete with the same things. They are different markets.
 

Ryng_tolu

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Relax, man, my post wasn't directed at you. I was talking about the REAL console doomsayers. I think Uncharted 4 will push the PS4 past 300K but below 400K.
No worry, even My comment was direct to you. :)

About PS4 in May, i see 300K definitive possible, just i don't see it happening, For now At least. If March and April are better than expect, i can chance My prediction.

This "sales are bad guys things are declining. Feel bad" crap that constantly happens in NPD reeks of "oh my prefered platform is performing terribly it must be the markets fault it can't be my prefered platforms fault it's so great." People need to wake up and realize that the majority of the platforms available this gen are not appealing to the market at large and that this is an indication of their failures not a failure of the market itself. The success of one platform that is appealing to the market at large should be proof enough of that.
100% agree with this
 

AniHawk

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I'm in Japan. I'm well aware of the gaming preferences here and of anything they serve to prove my point that Home and handheld consoles are separate markers. It just so happens Japan is the inverse of the rest of the world where the handheld market is successful and the home market is not. It's further proof that these markets don't intersect as much as you seem to believe they do.
you pretty much have a front row seat to how they intersect. the ps3, psp, ps vita, and ps4 market all became a sort of fluid playstation market that consumers have jumped between at one point or another in terms of supporting as a main platform since about 2010. now we're seeing the ps4 taking off as more ps vita/ps4 games make their way to the platform.
 

Javin98

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No worry, even My comment was direct to you. :)

About PS4 in May, i see 300K definitive possible, just i don't see it happening, For now At least. If March and April are better than expect, i can chance My prediction.
Uh, man, did you make an error here somewhere? I don't quite understand it. :p
 

AncientDiety

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you pretty much have a front row seat to how they intersect. the ps3, psp, ps vita, and ps4 market all became a sort of fluid playstation market that consumers have jumped between at one point or another in terms of supporting as a main platform since about 2010. now we're seeing the ps4 taking off as more ps vita/ps4 games make their way to the platform.
Games sell hardware this is not surprising, ps4 will do good in Japan.
 

Ondore

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Here's a question - is Nintendo counting alternate paths sold as DLC in their physical + digital numbers for Fire Emblem? Or are they only counting sales of digital versions of the base games?
Just the base game. (Tiki only knows how much they've pulled in from people buying alternate paths.)
 

Fdkn

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Before ps4 launched we read we won't have a ps5

Now we won't have a ps6

Maybe next time we'll read we won't have a ps7, you know, at some point you may be right. Never give up.
 

HGH

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Is there some magical way I can find out how Gravity Rush, Digimon or NepVII did?
Digimon seemed to be getting some good word of mouth/nostalgia sales at least.
 

RexNovis

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i've been pretty consistent in highlighting the ps4 as the one platform that should at least surpass its predecessor and have it pegged to outdo it by roughly 25%. i was also quick to voice concern over the ps vita failing as i felt it would be a bad sign for handhelds in particular if it didn't reach a decent sized market. i do feel compelled to respond to those trumpeting the dedicated industry as doing 'just fine!' and mocking those who are realizing there's a decline just because one platform is doing swell.
See here's the thing NOBODY is saying there isn't a decline. There has been a decline this gen that much is provably true. What people take issue with is those such as yourself who come in here and tell us how this decline is due to one specific thing: the decline of the market. That's one possible conclusion someone can come to based on what we've seen this gen but its not the only conclusion.

The evidence also supports the possibility of unappealing products which, historically, has precedent. In previous generations we've seen platforms fail to sell in large numbers because the market deemed them unappealing (GameCube, Dreamcast, Saturn, Xbox etc) bit one of the options available then went on to sell incredibly well thanks to being the overwhelmingly appealing option to the market at large.

This gen is not done yet. We do not know where the market leader will end up sales wise. Should the market leader over perform as we've seen in previous gens where the competing platforms were underperformed that would be a continuation of past events not some new harbinger of market collapse. This is what I see when I look at the figures for this gen: I see two platforms that are underperforming because most people don't have any I interest in owning them and I see one platform selling because people find it appealing.

The evidence supports my view just as much as it supports your view yet this doesnt stop people such as yourself from coming into threads preaching doom and gloom like its some foregone conclusion everytime the two platforms the market has deemed unappealing underperform. It comes across like "I feel bad about how the platform I like is doing right now so you all should feel bad too. THE MARKET IS DYING! FEEL MY PAIN!" and it's become incredibly tiresome to address over and over and over again. Your entitled to your opinion on the cause of the current sales but that doesn't mean it's ok to preach it ad naseum as if it's a fact instead of the possible explanation it actually is.
 

chromatic9

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What jappened with tomb rauder then? the reason tomb raider didn't sell is because it wasn't on ps4? I heard that a lot

I think it's a bad deal for both
Difficult to compare.

Rise of the Tomb Raider is a fully fledged game. SFV is a joke of a release.

Also we have Tomb Raider reboot in 2013 numbers to gauge from which did much better. SF IV goes back to 2008. We've had a bunch of other fighting games return and many versions of SF IV with low sales numbers. I don't think the thirst is there and its kind of niche again and Capcom released this sorry state of a game to tie in with a tournament. They will add the rest over the coming year.

I don't think a bare bones fighting game in 2016 selling as much as a AAA Rise of the Tomb Raider (both did around 200k) paints ROTTR is a good light.
 

maxiell

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I seriously doubt No Mans Sky will do any great numbers. 250k maybe? It looks more like a cult hit with a buzz in hardcore circles then a mainstream game.
It's probably well above that at retail already with preorders.
 

LordRaptor

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See here's the thing NOBODY is saying there isn't a decline. There has been a decline this gen that much is probably true. What people take issue with is those such as yourself who come in here and tell us how this decline is due to one specific thing: the decline of the market. That's one possible conclusion someone can content based on what we've seen this get its not the only conclusion.

The evidence also supports the possibility of unappealing products which, historically, has precedent. In previous generations we've seen platforms fail to sell in large numbers because the market deemed them unappealing (GameCube, Dreamcast, Saturn, Xbox etc) bit one of the options available then went on to sell incredibly well thanks to being the overwhelmingly appealing option to the market at large.
But that still means bad news for everyone involved that isn't the one appealing option.
Like, it doesn't actually matter why the market has declined, it matters that it has.

If nothing else, this NPD shows that in terms of mindshare people didn't go out and treat themselves to a new console with their tax rebate. They went and bought something else instead. That's not good news for the market in general.
 

Malcolm9

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You know - no games and stuff. The PS4 list of exclusives is completely barren. And why is no third party support or indies - what's up with that? Everyone's buying it just because of Microsoft's blunders clearly.
What a load of drivel, it's more than just MS making the error with all the DRM stuff at the start of the gen. The Playstation brand itself is much more popular in regards to consoles, always has been.

The PS4 has had some good exclusives as well, especially in the indie territory. This year see's some even bigger exclusives coming as well, just at the right time in my opinion to really strengthen the PS4 even more.

Third party and indie support has been excellent on the PS4 as well, so not sure why you mention that??
 

RexNovis

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But that still means bad news for everyone involved that isn't the one appealing option.
Like, it doesn't actually matter why the market has declined, it matters that it has.

If nothing else, this NPD shows that in terms of mindshare people didn't go out and treat themselves to a new console with their tax rebate. They went and bought something else instead. That's not good news for the market in general.
Are we looking at the same information? I see the lead console selling over 400k units thanks to tax refunds. That's a fuckton of units for a non banner month. Did WiiU and XB1 underperform? Absolutely. But PS4 also performed like a major market leader.
 

ninjablade

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But that still means bad news for everyone involved that isn't the one appealing option.
Like, it doesn't actually matter why the market has declined, it matters that it has.

If nothing else, this NPD shows that in terms of mindshare people didn't go out and treat themselves to a new console with their tax rebate. They went and bought something else instead. That's not good news for the market in general.
and people are surprised? its' been a one console market since playstation came out, if it wasn't for the motion control fad thats over now and sony pricing itself out of the market early, the samething would have happened lastgen, were just going back to norm and lastgen was a anomaly.
 

allan-bh

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Are we looking at the same information? I see the lead console selling over 400k units thanks to tax refunds. That's a fuckton of units for a non banner month. Did WiiU and XB1 underperform? Absolutely. But PS4 also performed like a major market leader.
He's talking about the market.You are focusing too much on PS4, sales are down.
 
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These silly 'word of mouth killed SF5' parrot posts need to stop. If anything the word of mouth from people who have actually played it is extremely positive, as the core fight game is possibly one of the best ever. It will also continue to sell being a console exclusive in a pretty sparse genre on PS4.

Also, if you add the ballpark sales figures across PS4, PC and digital, it is far from the bomb people are trying to make out.
 

joanot

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You realize Capcom is about to introduce a free patch this month that adds in everything people have been complaining about and more right? It would help to do some research before making such statements.
I do know, capcom will release it "later this month" & yet it doesnt implement a RQ solution.

3 weeks = 1 month?

Game is going to be updated every month. So it's going to take a long time regardless of how well it does initially.
Patch hasnt released yet so my point still stands, also game as a service model can only work if you are quick & efficient releasing patches & fixes, Capcom is not delivering on that regard after a catastrophic launch.


Trying too hard imo....
Care to explain ?

Is my first time posting in a sales thread, didnt know there was such an hostile environment lol
 

ninjablade

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These silly 'word of mouth killed SF5' parrot posts need to stop. If anything the word of mouth from people who have actually played it is extremely positive, as the core fight game is possibly one of the best ever. It will also continue to sell being a console exclusive in a pretty sparse genre on PS4.

Also, if you add the ballpark sales figures across PS4, PC and digital, it is far from the bomb people are trying to make out.
are you kidding? just look at the user reviews on metracritiic and steam, not to mention the low metracritic score, this is a game for the niche hardcore gamer, and things like this really hurt it's sales. now look at games like blood borne, witcher 3, and MK cause the amazing reviews and user reviews, they were able to sell great, the fact that such a niche game has such low user scores on metracritic is unheard of.
 
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Wow so the gap in sales already this year is equal to what the XBone sold in February; 250k.

Price drop was perfectly timed by Sony. It's hitting out the park this year.
 

Kssio_Aug

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Good Naruto numbers!
Or just bad SFV numbers.

If there wasn't so many games I'm interested in right now and in the near future... :(
 

Fdkn

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Wow so the gap in sales already this year is equal to what the XBone sold in February; 250k.

Price drop was perfectly timed by Sony. It's hitting out the park this year.
back in October the pricedrop was considered terribly executed and pointless. Funny stuff
 

RexNovis

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He's talking about the market.You are focusing too much on PS4, sales are down.
You mean the market decline % that included the massive 3DS decline YoY thanks to the launch of a new SKU last year? Oh yeah that's a real good indicator of the health of the market. Here's the reality:

Code:
Xbox One 248k 

MoM rise = 88%

YoY drop = 10%

Weekly average

Xbox One January: 132K / 4 = 33,000

Xbox One February: 248K / 4 = 62,000
Code:
PS4 405k 

MoM rise = 76%

YoY rise = 18%

Weekly average

PS4 January: 230K / 4 = 57,500

PS4 February: 405K / 4 = 101,250
Code:
Wii U 69k 

MoM rise= 73%

YoY drop = 27%

Weekly average

Wii U January: 40K / 4 = 10,000

Wii U February: 69K / 4 = 17,250
LTD Market Share

PS4: 53% [+0%]
XB1: 47% [-0%]

PS4 V XB1 GAP

>1.5m
So one platform saw a large YoY increase because ppl find it appealing. One platform saw a 10% decrease because it's appeal is losing its luster and the last platform saw a 27% drop because it is at the end of its lifecycle with its predecessor announced as on its way and without a meaningful price drop of any kind. Let's compare the total until sold this year and last year shall we?

Last year (estimates based off Welfare's YoY %)
PS4: ~343k
XB1: ~275k
WiiU: ~94k
Total: 712k

This year
PS4: 405k
XB1: 248k
WiiU: 69k
Total: 722k

That's right guys there were 10 more total units sold this year than last year. You know what that means?!?!! The market is DOOMED! DOOMED I tell you!

Can we dispense with the bullshit now? More units were sold this year than last they just happened to more heavily skewed towards the market leading platform. That's not a massive decline as so many here would have you believe.

So no Allan unit sales are UP YoY. The market leader costing a bit less does not a decline make.
 

Omnistalgic

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Wow, people actually happy and thrilled to see SFV failed? Butthurt because of exclusive deal or something? Never in my life have I’ve seen so many people happy about sad news for a developer. Capcom has some of the greatest franchises in gaming, is mismanaged, and deserves some criticism, but wishing bad on anyone shows an ill-hearted individual. Just like the TR thread, or The Order. Why are people happy when things bombs? Don’t get the logic.

And SFV is a great game, I’ve already saved posts to come back next year and see what the landscape looks like. I’ll happily eat crow if I’m wrong, but no way I think SFV doesn’t turn into a fantastic fighting game over the next few years and sell 3 or 4 million over it’s lifetime.
 

Omnistalgic

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are you kidding? just look at the user reviews on metracritiic and steam, not to mention the low metracritic score, this is a game for the niche hardcore gamer, and things like this really hurt it's sales. now look at games like blood borne, witcher 3, and MK cause the amazing reviews and user reviews, they were able to sell great, the fact that such a niche game has such low user scores on metracritic is unheard of.
Yeah, this is the only reason for releasing another version with a new disc and art cover. Capcom does need to relaunch once with all the content updated, and all the additional characters, modes, story pack etc...A 9.3 meta score for SFV would have sold more, many people who want the game looked at user reviews and said “ill wait’. It would have helped, don’t know why people think the genre is that small, lol MK and Smash are fighters too, sell million. And Naruto is a good game, don’t why it’s used in all these jokes, it’s the ending of a great anime. Seriously no one watched Naruto? First 130 episode are great anime!

Review sites were actually pretty nice to the game, many giving it 8/10 despite it’s bare-bone launch. So a new version with an even more refined experience, and pretty much MORE of everything should get very high level scores. As a day one, they need to stick buy what the said with not needing anymore disc. But they also need to release a complete edition to give critics another score to change the narrative of “incomplete game”.
 

Omnistalgic

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Jersey
You know what they say about first impressions, right?

I'm not sure they can get past this abysmal launch- They can keep updating the game all they want, but people might have moved on to something different- I absolutely love the game, but they shouldn't have released it without core single player modes that MK has had for years now. Hell, even Guilty Gear.

I'll keep playing this forever :(
Keep the faith my brother! We’ll get some casuals to bop one way or another ‘-)

Believe it! Dattebayo!
 

Rymuth

Member
Jun 8, 2014
15,301
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back in October the pricedrop was considered terribly executed and pointless. Funny stuff
A presidential candidate with Sony's strategy department as campaign strategist and Microsoft's PR division as speech writer would be unbeatable.
So you're saying the PS4 selling more than 300,000 in May would be Uncharted territory? Cool.
Teehee