NPD Sales Results for February 2016 [Up1: Fire Emblem]

Jan 20, 2008
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I am not sure there is a big enough market for JRPGs today to support a 10 million minimum for success regardless of how large the and keying campaign is. It seems remarkably foolish and tone deaf to the current market climate.
I suppose a key will be whether or not they are facotoring in PC version sales into their requirement. If they are and the game meets basic requirements (good reviews, good PC port), I see it being pretty successful on PC. Lots of double dipping and first time buyers. Enough to push it over the 10 million mark later down the line.

But ps4/xb1, the target is clearly way too high.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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I suppose a key will be whether or not they are facotoring in PC version sales into their requirement. If they are and the game meets basic requirements (good reviews, good PC port), I see it being pretty successful on PC. Lots of double dipping and first time buyers. Enough to push it over the 10 million mark later down the line.

But ps4/xb1, the target is clearly way too high.
This is the target they've given when the only confirmed platforms are PS4 and XB1 so to me that says this is what they expect to sell on the currently announced platforms. Hence why it seems absurd. Even with PC sales included I'm incredibly skeptical of their target.
 
Jul 19, 2015
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I suppose a key will be whether or not they are facotoring in PC version sales into their requirement. If they are and the game meets basic requirements (good reviews, good PC port), I see it being pretty successful on PC. Lots of double dipping and first time buyers. Enough to push it over the 10 million mark later down the line.

But ps4/xb1, the target is clearly way too high.
The target definitely includes pc. Especially considering ffxiii even with all the bad word of mouth it seems to have and being a 4 year old port still sold 500,000 they're releasing it on pc
 
I'm pretty confident that as long as the game gets good reviews (82-85+ meta), it'll hit the sales target.

Primarily because it's lifetime numbers and I fully expect the PC release to put it over that threshold.
I'm sure they are hoping for 10 million sales at an average sales price of more than $50. If PC pushes it over the threshold with an average sales price of $10, it will still be a disaster.

I'm thinking this will be an uber-bomba based on the 10 million projection.
 
Nov 3, 2014
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Final Fantasy XV selling 10 million by the end of 2017 would probably be a good reason for Square to throw a giant parade.

Pokemon Sun and Moon selling 10 million by the end of 2016 would probably cause Gamefreak to do some soul searching figuring out where the hell they went wrong.

GTAVI selling 10 million in a week would probably probably lead to half the marketing department being laid off.

Expectations are a fun game.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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Final Fantasy XV selling 10 million by the end of 2017 would probably be a good reason for Square to throw a giant parade.

Pokemon Sun and Moon selling 10 million by the end of 2016 would probably cause Gamefreak to do some soul searching figuring out where the hell they went wrong.

GTAVI selling 10 million in a week would probably probably lead to half the marketing department being laid off.

Expectations are a fun game.
Holy shit, when you put it in that perspective...
 
Aug 21, 2014
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Square Enix management must be comprised of masochists and self-flagellators.

It seems like they intentionally set their breakeven sales way too high, so they can miss them with certainty.
Between this and Tomb Raider...

Incoming: FF XVI XBox Two exclusive holiday 2020
 
Jan 5, 2015
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Don't know if this would mean anything but John made a post:
I just started typing this long reply, thought better of it and deleted it.

Basically, as my opinion would go, saying "10mil" for a company like Square is one of those hyperbolic internal statements a company makes to justify the % of resources the company is investing in one project and also to keep the internal teams motivated. A project of this investment from Square isn't the size of one from like an EA or Acti or Ubi, and I've seen projects with just as many restarts and larger team sizes have profitability goals of 6mm at the high end.
 
May 4, 2014
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Damn, haven't posted in sales Gaf forever. Thought a prediction thread would be up for March by now.

I wonder if the discussion about FF15, still far away from release, is a good sign that the franchise is still important or just a reaction to the bad demo and stupid sales target.
I asked this in another thread but which franchise is more relevant at this point in time to the western audience: MGS or FF?

They seem like similar mega Japanase stalwarts that can be compared to each other.
I'd imagine MGS is largely more relevant and palatable to the west, so MGS V just about squeaks past FF in sales in this era.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Damn, haven't posted in sales Gaf forever. Thought a prediction thread would be up for March by now.



I asked this in another thread but which franchise is more relevant at this point in time to the western audience: MGS or FF?

They seem like similar mega Japanase stalwarts that can be compared to each other.
I'd imagine MGS is largely more relevant and palatable to the west, so MGS V just about squeaks past FF in sales in this era.
MGS certainly appeals to more western gaming trends but I definitely wouldn't call it particularly relevant. FF seems a bit more relevant solely off of the back of FF7 nostalgia that's been tossed around lately. I honestly think PT was the height of western relevance for Japanese gaming thus far this gen as sad as that is.

But ya it's honestly hard to say either way.
 
Jun 2, 2013
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MGS certainly appeals to more western gaming trends but I definitely wouldn't call it particularly relevant. FF seems a bit more relevant solely off of the back of FF7 nostalgia that's been tossed around lately. I honestly think PT was the height of western relevance for Japanese gaming thus far this gen as sad as that is.

But ya it's honestly hard to say either way.
Dark Souls
Bloodborne
Splatoon
 
May 4, 2014
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MGS certainly appeals to more western gaming trends but I definitely wouldn't call it particularly relevant. FF seems a bit more relevant solely off of the back of FF7 nostalgia that's been tossed around lately. I honestly think PT was the height of western relevance for Japanese gaming thus far this gen as sad as that is.

But ya it's honestly hard to say either way.
Yeah it's a really tough call. But I'd say in general MGS was always a bit more niche and never had the truly elite sales as a lot of other franchises imo, just had a real hard core fanbase.

Will be interesting to compare the two by end of 2017. FF XV will need mad critical acclaim to even attempt the 10 mil target set by SE.

Since you ask this: NO. lol.

Splatoon will win, and by a huge margin. :p

EDIT: seriusly comment, Splatoon will almost for sure outsell even Final Fantasy XIII worldwide, so yeah...

Lifetime: Splatoon > FFXIII > FFVX
What is Splatoon's lifetime?
 
Jul 7, 2015
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Yeah it's a really tough call. But I'd say in general MGS was always a bit more niche and never had the truly elite sales as a lot of other franchises imo, just had a real hard core fanbase.

Will be interesting to compare the two by end of 2017. FF XV will need mad critical acclaim to even attempt the 10 mil target set by SE.



What is Splatoon's lifetime?
Was 4.06m by end of 2015. Since that, it sold another ~150k in Japan alone.
 
May 4, 2014
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Was 4.06m by end of 2015. Since that, it sold another ~150k in Japan alone.
How many copies you bought yourself Ryng? :p

I'll say, I'm always impressed by Splatoon sales but in the time it's been on shelves I can picture FF XV doing about 5-6 million at a stretch in the same period.

Splatoon has had great legs but I think FF XV will eclipse it overall (barring a critically panned game)
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Dark Souls
Bloodborne
Splatoon
PT honestly seemed like a genuine phenomenon when it released. People who didn't give a shit about games were talking about it. It was truly something else. I'd wager it garnered more interest and was more relevant in its short lifespan than people think.

How many copies you bought yourself Ryng? :p

I'll say, I'm always impressed by Splatoon sales but in the time it's been on shelves I can picture FF XV doing about 5-6 million at a stretch in the same period.

Splatoon has had great legs but I think FF XV will eclipse it overall (barring a critically panned game)
Forgive him Ryng for he knows not what he has done.

Beware OleGunner you've gone and poked the squid.

That said I agree FFXV lifetime will beat out Splatoon lifetime. At least I hope so. If not then SE is gonna feel it hard.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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How many copies you bought yourself Ryng? :p
One copy. :D The comunity is insane huge, i swear. One Splatfest got alost 700K players online. That's huge. :p

The game continue to have better legs than Mario Kart 8, last time Splatoon outsold it by a huge margin.

Mario Kart 8 sold so far 7.24 million, and is still selling ( MK8 sold 1.37 million last holidays ), and lifetime will sell minimum 9 million ( most likely 10 million ). No way Splatoon beat Mario Kart since it has one year of vantage, but still, is selling more so far, it's gonna be a close battle. I predict 10 million for Mario Kart 8 and 7 million for Splatoon.

Forgive him Ryng for he knows not what he has done.

Beware OleGunner you've gone and poked the squid.

That said I agree FFXV lifetime will beat out Splatoon lifetime. At least I hope so. If not then SE is gonna feel it hard.
Honestly, i can see FF XV above Splatoon only in Europe... And not in all countries ( DEFINITIVE not in France, i mean, Splatoon has outsold Fallout 4 for PS4 in France ).

In USA, Japan, and in general worlwide, i SERIUSLY doubt it. There is a chance, but is very unlucky.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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One copy. :D The comunity is insane huge, i swear. One Splatfest got alost 700K players online. That's huge. :p

The game continue to have better legs than Mario Kart 8, last time Splatoon outsold it by a huge margin.

Mario Kart 8 sold so far 7.24 million, and is still selling ( MK8 sold 1.37 million last holidays ), and lifetime will sell minimum 9 million ( most likely 10 million ). No way Splatoon beat Mario Kart since it has one year of vantage, but still, is selling more so far, it's gonna be a close battle. I predict 10 million for Mario Kart 8 and 7 million for Splatoon.
software on wii u basically has nine months to go. i don't think we'll get to 10m for mk8 or 7m for splatoon unless the nx is backwards compatible with wii u discs.
 
Jul 7, 2015
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software on wii u basically has nine months to go. i don't think we'll get to 10m for mk8 or 7m for splatoon unless the nx is backwards compatible with wii u discs.
No. Has not. Jusk like Wii with GC, and Wii U with Wii, NX gonna be retro compatible with disc.

I mean, there are still games on Wii which are selling. 7/8 years old games, i mean.

Even after the new console release, games on Nintendo console Always continue to sells, and sells, and sells, like on GC, and on Wii, this Will happen with Wii U.

Anyway. Not sayng those games are gonna sell for sure that much. But ~6.5m Splatoon and ~9m MK8, this is absolutely the minimum. Less than this is crazy.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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No. Has not. Jusk like Wii with GC, and Wii U with Wii, NX gonna be retro compatible with disc.

I mean, there are still games on Wii which are selling. 7/8 years old games, i mean.

Even after the new console release, games on Nintendo console Always continue to sells, and sells, and sells, like on GC, and on Wii, this Will happen with Wii U.

Anyway. Not sayng those games are gonna sell for sure that much. But ~6.5m Splatoon and ~9m MK8, this is absolutely the minimum. Less than this is crazy.
there is a decent chance that the nx has game cards only and may only have wii u games available digitally through backwards compatibility. wii software still sells because it has an enormous userbase. gamecube software sold into the wii's lifetime because the wii was super successful.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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But the ROI was poor.
That does tend to happen when you kill something before it even has a chance to make money of any kind ;)

It’s a great game, but it’s not unfair. The SP content isn’t there.

What would be unfair is for Capcom to not re-release the title once it’s a lot more appealing to casuals and not do a free-to-play version.
I think a free to play version is more likely and has better potential for profit if they handle it properly. I can't believe I'm actually hopeful about a game getting a free to play SKU ... I feel dirty.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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Well, I have a feeling that Quantum Break will be added to the pile of bombed out Microsoft published games. I don't think that those review scores are going to be enough to start the word of mouth that would be required to make that game a success.
I don't think it will bomb. I think their is enough of that type of audience on the system to aid it. I do think it will underperform though.

I still stand by Ratchet and Clank > Quantum Break for NPD!
 
Jul 19, 2015
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I don't think it will bomb. I think their is enough of that type of audience on the system to aid it. I do think it will underperform though.

I still stand by Ratchet and Clank > Quantum Break for NPD!
Thought it was crazy the first time you said it still think so now and im rooting for R&C big time lol. If that happens....damn
 
I don't think it will bomb. I think their is enough of that type of audience on the system to aid it. I do think it will underperform though.

I still stand by Ratchet and Clank > Quantum Break for NPD!
Microsoft has generally been clueless on how to market its games this generation. I don't see this being any different.

Does anyone have an estimate for what it would take to crack the top 5 in an April?
 
Feb 16, 2010
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I asked this in another thread but which franchise is more relevant at this point in time to the western audience: MGS or FF?
C: None of the Above

The apparent poor sales of SFV are so miserable and unfair.
Given the state the game was released in, the fact its sold as much as it has is a surprise.

AC: Syndicate is a game were the poor sales are a bit unfair. But SFV? No. Not unfair at all, actually.

But the ROI was poor.
But think of the MAUs it could have had.

I don't think it will bomb but it will underperform.

I still stand by Ratchet and Clank > Quantum Break for NPD!
Underfperform what? What target is it going to underperform compared to? You're not saying anything.

And, although I love R&C with all I am, it's not going to outsell an M rated shooty game that has a one week head start in the month.

Does anyone have an estimate for what it would take to crack the top 5 in an April?
125k on average for the last 3 years.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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So interesting development. Turns out the 10 million sales for FFXV isn't a minimum target for profit

So just how much has the game cost so far? Well we don’t know that quite yet but director Hajime Tabata did clue us in on how many copies of the game need to be sold for it to be considered a success. Speaking with European press following Uncovered, Tabata said the game needs to sell upwards of 10 million units over its lifetime. This has nothing to do with profitability, however.

In a statement issued to Famitsu, Tabata clarified the 10 million figure is nothing more than a goal for the team. He said the number is probably exaggerated but was put out to demonstrate the team’s lofty ambitions
Source

Hooray for that! What a relief!
 
So looking back, both Wolfenstein and The Order did around 180-200K.

Quantum Break is also a linear singleplayer shooter, and it's about 7-10 hours judging by reviews, so I'd probably expect maybe around 120-180K given it's on a less popular platform and coming out at a more competitive time in the generation?

I guess it could super tank below 100K, but it seems to have at least something of a following and it's not *that* crowded.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Hooray for that! What a relief!
Why does that make it a relief?

10 year development. 10 million copies @ $30 retail average price = $300m retail revenues. Take out retailer margin you're at, what $225m ballpark rev for the pub?

For a 10 year development? Yeah, that's still not enough.

Okay, here's my prediction. The game sells well enough to slot in a good spot. People come in and say "I'm glad QB did well!" People who frequent sales threads shake their heads.
Agreed. But that's basically every month these days.

Okay I'm grumpy today I'm realizing.
 
Sep 8, 2013
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Said it in the other thread but now all those posts look incredibly stupid lol even if he clarified he still said lifetime to begin with anyway
It's encouraging at the very least. Like I said I'd be thrilled if the game proved an incredibly profitable for SE. I sincerely hope it does.

I don't think it will bomb. I think their is enough of that type of audience on the system to aid it. I do think it will underperform though.

I still stand by Ratchet and Clank > Quantum Break for NPD!
As much as I adore Rachet and Ckank the odds of it outselling a game with time powers and guns are small. If the movie is a big success I could see it happening but outside of that I'm not sure the IP has the clout to pull something like that off these days. We shall see.
 
I think they had a pretty small team for most of Final Fantasy XV's development, but the real issue is that it's a project that locked up a ton of their top staff for ages when they could have released 3-4 major games in that time period (or even more if they just split them across a whole bunch of projects).

The opportunity cost of making this game is crippling. A lot of the original top staff that was on it have also went into pretty small stakes projects and a lot of others have just straight up left the company.

This is before we even compare to the opportunity cost of just investing that money in the stock market for the time period this game took, which would have some notably solid returns.
 
Jul 19, 2015
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Why does that make it a relief?

10 year development. 10 million copies @ $30 retail average price = $300m retail revenues. Take out retailer margin you're at, what $225m ballpark rev for the pub?

For a 10 year development? Yeah, that's still not enough.




Agreed. But that's basically every month these days.

Okay I'm grumpy today I'm realizing.
Nobody can say whats enough or not. What they were doing for "10years" isnt widly known either. If it reaches a target and square says it was a success thats all we have to go off
 
Sep 8, 2013
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So looking back, both Wolfenstein and The Order did around 180-200K.

Quantum Break is also a linear singleplayer shooter, and it's about 7-10 hours judging by reviews, so I'd probably expect maybe around 120-180K given it's on a less popular platform and coming out at a more competitive time in the generation?

I guess it could super tank below 100K, but it seems to have at least something of a following and it's not *that* crowded.
Surely Quantum Break has to sell better than The Order did? Surely.
 
Sep 4, 2015
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Underfperform what? What target is it going to underperform compared to? You're not saying anything.

And, although I love R&C with all I am, it's not going to outsell an M rated shooty game that has a one week head start in the month.
I'm not sure. I guess it would be better to say I don't see it selling particularly well but I don't see it bombing either. "particularly well" and "bombing" are still relative notions and do not really say anything but yeah lol.

Sure, I agree. I was just following up on Rex's "wild prediction" thing. I'm not going to be surprised if/when QB performs better. However, I don't think it is impossible for R&C to pull it off either. So, with that slight chance and my fondness of R&C, I am going to roll with it!