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NPD Sales Results For January 2011 [Up4: Analyst Data (Lots Of Games)]

Parl

Member
REMEMBER CITADEL said:
That has nothing whatsoever to do with my taste, I like most of those games. What makes them more casual, first and foremost, is the fact that they are far more accessible from the control standpoint and require far less from players, as far as traditional gaming motor skills go.

You could go deeper than that, but I won't, at least not right now as it's past 2AM over here and I'm just about to go to bed.
On this point, a less accessable game can be played casually. FPSs, I play very casually, so do some of my friends. Racing games I now play casually. Fighting games too. Strategy games, I play hardcore.

The degree to which a game is 'hardcore' or 'casual' can only reasonably be defined as degree to which it can be played as such, or is played as such. Most games can be played casually for a reasonable return of entertainment, some more effectively than others. Most games can be played hardcore too. One person's hardcore game is another's casual, and vise versa, so it's not matter of something being 'casual' or 'hardcore'.

So it all comes down to the individual players. Mario Kart certainly has vast amounts of both levels of dedication and everything inbetween, so does COD. Some games's audience distribution is a bit heavy on the dedicated side, and some heavier on the 'put it on for a bit of fun' side. Most games by this defnition are both casual and hardcore games, and I tend to find the best games are the ones that don't punish you for wanting to play them casually, and also enable plenty for the dedicated gamer to enjoy.
 
Parl said:
On this point, a less accessable game can be played casually. FPSs, I play very casually, so do some of my friends. Racing games I now play casually. Fighting games too. Strategy games, I play hardcore.

The degree to which a game is 'hardcore' or 'casual' can only reasonably be defined as degree to which it can be played as such, or is played as such. Most games can be played casually for a reasonable return of entertainment, some more effectively than others. Most games can be played hardcore too. One person's hardcore game is another's casual, and vise versa, so it's not matter of something being 'casual' or 'hardcore'.

Of course you can, there is no clear division, but statistically, there are some games that are more likely to attract a certain type of player.
 

Parl

Member
REMEMBER CITADEL said:
Of course you can, there is no clear division, but statistically, there are some games that are more likely to attract a certain type of player.
That is true, and it'd be welcome if most people didn't use these terms as mostly non-overlapping, fixed, inherent characteristics. The reason being is that it can be very misleading - sometimes unintentionally - and it creates labels that are often irrelevant and diminishes people's understanding of how and why different people play games.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Article sent in to Gamasutra. Should be up in about 6-7 hours, I hope, provided they don't find too many things to edit. There are a few figures in there that might still be new. See you guys then.

Edit: Oh, and if someone wants to double check something for me, tell us if you think the $551 million figure in Microsoft's PR is correct.

Here's what you do. Michael Pachter told us Xbox 360 software revenue. Assume an Xbox 360 hardware ASP of $300 (close enough, for now). Multiply out to get hardware revenue. Now subtract your hardware and software revenue figures from $551 million. This is Xbox 360 accessory revenue in January, right? The total accessory segment revenue figure for January was $235 million. Do your figures make sense?

Xbox 360 software was $170 million. Under the assumption of a $300 ASP for hardware, you get $114 million for hardware revenue. That's $284 million. If Microsoft's $551 million figure is right, then they sold $267 million in accessories for January. Yet, the total for all of January was $235 million.

Actual ASP for Xbox 360 tomorrow in the article.

I figure Microsoft meant $451 million, or otherwise made some other mistake. Hard to figure otherwise. Hope I got my numbers right.

Don't you wish you could make a $100 million mistake in your PR? ;)

Fortunately, I didn't need the above for the article, but ran across it while doing some other stuff.
 

pestul

Member
Funny how just a year ago it looked like this generation had a head of steam and would carry strong for at least a few years. Now I'm already looking forward to the next generation.. I guess my modern PC is spoiling me a bit too. Nintendo will probably have an HD 3D console in 2012, with MS and Sony waiting until 2013.
 

okenny

Banned
pestul said:
Funny how just a year ago it looked like this generation had a head of steam and would carry strong for at least a few years. Now I'm already looking forward to the next generation.. I guess my modern PC is spoiling me a bit too. Nintendo will probably have an HD 3D console in 2012, with MS and Sony waiting until 2013.

I don't think any publisher wants to be in the position where the competition has a full year's lead (...certainly not in the States at least). I also see in my ignorance ball that MS, Sony and Nintendo all had their reference designs for their next consoles done a couple of years ago to the point where they can bring it out with in an 18 months of pulling the trigger. I say this because all of them were in pre-production by 2007. Its just a matter of refreshing the hardware such that their software RD is not adversely effected. I think MS has the best advantage in this realm.

I even bet that some off the new platform features we've seen this gen was intended for next gen.
 

kswiston

Member
pestul said:
Funny how just a year ago it looked like this generation had a head of steam and would carry strong for at least a few years. Now I'm already looking forward to the next generation.. I guess my modern PC is spoiling me a bit too. Nintendo will probably have an HD 3D console in 2012, with MS and Sony waiting until 2013.

I think that the problem with this generation being longer than normal has nothing to do with graphics or technology. The problem is an over-reliance on sequels. This year 360 will get it's 7th mainline Call of Duty title.... Many of the other big series are also hitting their third or fourth entry this generation. Things get stale when we are just getting more of what we have already played 2-3 times this generation. Even if the games themselves are still good games.

If retail offerings were as diverse as XBLA/PSN offerings (which have a much healthier ratio of new IP to sequels) I would have no problem going another 3+ years with these consoles.
 

Curufinwe

Member
Dr. Feel Good said:
If console prices are still above $300 a year from now, I fucking done with the generation. The PlayStation 3 has been out for 4 years now. There's no reason the price should not be lower.

Kind of bizarre, unless your consoles happen to die out of warranty a year from now.
 

Luckyman

Banned
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/sony-profitability-more-important-than-passing-xbox-360/

"So do we pass Xbox 360? At the moment, I think we're trying to just keep up with inventory and trying to move as many units as we can through the channel. It's also one of those things where, do we notice what Microsoft is doing? Obviously, they are our competition. But is it like we surpass Microsoft or we fail? No. Our goal is to be profitable and we're going to achieve that this year and do even better next year," he explained. "That's been Nintendo's position for years. We have a very aggressive plan this year. And when we're profitable we're happy. If we happen to close the gap with Microsoft in the meantime, then that's good too."

Pricecut hopes and dreams dashed
 
Luckyman said:
Nah. They're just not going to give people strong reason to hold off buying a PS3 until they do cut, because they will lose more money not being able to sell to more people if they keep the currently too-high prices. More software sold, more PSN+ subs, and more everything else easily covers whatever losses the hardware still incurs. After all, there's only so much time left in the generation to sell at a given pricepoint and if they wait too long, most people will just choose something else. In every scenario, they would be better off initiating a price cut versus letting MS do it first this year.
 

KingDizzi

Banned
Some numbers from Invisible Walls, is there are already know still be thankful I spent time writing this. :p

- Zumba Fitness 240k on Wii
- Wii Fit at 11 at 152k
- Just Dance 2 563K, 3.6 million lifetime
- Dance Central - 1.2 million lifetime
- Black Ops 11M in three months
- LBP2 353K
- 440k Dead Space 2
- Kinect Sports at 1.2 million
- DKCR 2 million or so in two months
- Links Crossbow trainig - 3.3 million
- Reach - 4.4 million which does not sound right
- DCUO PS3 - 144k
- ME2 PS3 - 76k
- Epic Mickey - 100k or so, 1.3 million lifetime
- UDraw - Down to 93, no numbers
 

Rainier

Member
KingDizzi said:
Some numbers from Invisible Walls, is there are already know still be thankful I spent time writing this...
Thanks for the numbers, maybe Nirolak can add them to the OP. Holy crap, Black Ops is a monster.
 

Busaiku

Member
KingDizzi said:
Some numbers from Invisible Walls, is there are already know still be thankful I spent time writing this. :p

- Zumba Fitness 240k on Wii
- Wii Fit at 11 at 152k
- Just Dance 2 563K, 3.6 million lifetime
- Dance Central - 1.2 million lifetime
- Black Ops 11M in three months
- LBP2 353K
- 440k Dead Space 2
- Kinect Sports at 1.2 million
- DKCR 2 million or so in two months
- Links Crossbow trainig - 3.3 million
- Reach - 4.4 million which does not sound right
- DCUO PS3 - 144k
- ME2 PS3 - 76k
- Epic Mickey - 100k or so, 1.3 million lifetime
- UDraw - Down to 93, no numbers
It's great that IW has been making up a bit of the slack lately.
Hope they continue.

Also, that is an insane drop for uDraw.
I guess it was just a Christmas present thing.
 

Cipherr

Member
KingDizzi said:
Some numbers from Invisible Walls, is there are already know still be thankful I spent time writing this. :p

- Zumba Fitness 240k on Wii
- Wii Fit at 11 at 152k
- Just Dance 2 563K, 3.6 million lifetime
- Dance Central - 1.2 million lifetime
- Black Ops 11M in three months
- LBP2 353K
- 440k Dead Space 2
- Kinect Sports at 1.2 million
- DKCR 2 million or so in two months
- Links Crossbow trainig - 3.3 million
- Reach - 4.4 million which does not sound right
- DCUO PS3 - 144k
- ME2 PS3 - 76k
- Epic Mickey - 100k or so, 1.3 million lifetime
- UDraw - Down to 93, no numbers

A good amount of successful titles there on all 3 consoles.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
KingDizzi said:
- ME2 PS3 - 76k
Thanks.

Interested to know what people think of that figure. It was a top 10 PS3 title at retail for the month and it was #8 on the PSN download list for the month. We now have a number to go with one of those rankings.

How do you think it did, total, if we include both sources of sales?

Personally, I'd guess around 5K total on PSN, putting January sales just over 80K. (For reference, FF7 was ahead of ME2 on the PSN list. Yes, there's a big price differential, but do we really think more than 5-10K people bought FF7 on PSN in January? I don't, but I'm happy to be convinced otherwise!)
 

Averon

Member
Interested to know what people think of that figure.

It did about what I'd expect a a year old, $60 game would do on the PS3. Did any year old PS3 ports sold 100K in their debut month? I can't think of any.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Averon said:
It did about what I'd expect a a year old, $60 game would do on the PS3. Did any year old PS3 ports sold 100K in their debut month? I can't think of any.
How many such late ports have there been? Bioshock, Mass Effect 2, ... ?
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
KingDizzi said:
- Zumba Fitness 240k on Wii
Just adding some detail, Michael Pachter said it sold over 300K (across all platforms), and it was lower than LBP2 at 353K. So we can estimate that 360 and PS3 collectively accounted for 60K - 110K, roughly speaking. I'd go with the low end of that, with something like 70K split roughly 50K and 20K.

(Do we know for sure that NPD is telling us the rankings in their listing of the platforms after a game's title in the top 10 list?)
 
is Majesco lucky or good with their fitness games? Their Julian Micheals games used to be huge (comparatively, and as soon as they drop those they've got the next big thing.

I gotta figure this dance game craze is going to wear off faster then the plastic instruments genre did, but as for now I'm amazed that Just Dance, Dance Central, and etc. can be multi-million sellers so easily.
 

user_nat

THE WORDS! They'll drift away without the _!
jvm said:
How many such late ports have there been? Bioshock, Mass Effect 2, ... ?
Oblivion.
Although that was the result of the later PS3 launch.

Rainbox 6 Vegas also.. maybe.
 
pestul said:
Funny how just a year ago it looked like this generation had a head of steam and would carry strong for at least a few years. Now I'm already looking forward to the next generation.. I guess my modern PC is spoiling me a bit too. Nintendo will probably have an HD 3D console in 2012, with MS and Sony waiting until 2013.



What exactly is on the PC today that looks considerably better than Crysis? Because although spec's have definitely increased, the games have stayed more or less the same.

2013 will be the year where leaps and bounds will be made on both the PC and consoles, Crytek, Id Software, Epic, etc are all pushing the current techniques and will focus on increasing AI, Physics and simulation of special effects until the end of 2012, this was made clear at Siggraph 2010, everyone's chart seems to be gearing up for something BIG coming in 2013, going as far as calling it a "Renaissance" in 3D rendering. I smell a new generation of consoles for 2013, in that we agree except I don't see Nintendo jumping ahead of Sony and MS, if anything they'll launch a year later as they've done in the past.


CryteksFutureplans.jpg




Even nVidia's roadmap is pointing towards something BIG in 2013 with their launch of Maxwell which looks to be head and shoulders above Fermi and even Kepler:


nvidia_roadmap.jpg



A new generation of consoles would have to be announced at this years E3 if we had a 2012 launch and that would be too soon, this year Nintendo will focus on the 3DS, Sony on NGP and Move, and MS on Kinect, that leaves E3 2012 for the big console annoucements. I just can't see Nintendo doing that this year.
 

Cipherr

Member
LittleJohnny said:
What exactly is on the PC today that looks considerably better than Crysis? Because although spec's have definitely increased, the games have stayed more or less the same.

Metro 2033. And its more like: "What exactly on PC today that looks considerably better than whats on consoles" And its a whole hell of a lot. First of all, I can think of very few PC games I play right now that run at anything LESS than a rock solid 60 or more FPS at 1080P. Something this gen of consoles sure loved to claim they would be doing, and quite frankly, don't.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
donny2112 pointed out in a recent thread that Nintendo listed some sales charts in its emails. Here is the top 10 NDS games for January 2011:
24edqmc.png

As text:
  1. Kingdom Hearts Re:coded
  2. New Super Mario Bros.
  3. Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-land Mayhem!
  4. Mario Kart DS
  5. Super Scribblenauts
  6. Super Mario 64 DS
  7. Call of Duty: Black Ops
  8. Plants vs. Zombies
  9. Sonic Colors
  10. Pokémon SoulSilver Version
 

donny2112

Member
jvm said:
donny2112 pointed out in a recent thread that Nintendo listed some sales charts in its emails. Here is the top 10 NDS games for January 2011:
http://i52.tinypic.com/24edqmc.png[IMG]
As text:
[LIST=1]
[*]Kingdom Hearts Re:coded
[*]New Super Mario Bros.
[*]Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-land Mayhem!
[*]Mario Kart DS
[*]Super Scribblenauts
[*]Super Mario 64 DS
[*]Call of Duty: Black Ops
[*]Plants vs. Zombies
[*]Sonic Colors
[*]Pokémon SoulSilver Version
[/LIST][/QUOTE]

Thanks! In that case, it looks like Black Ops might be pulling in some decent numbers (e.g. maybe 30-50K in January) being above the latest Pokemon (long legs) and close to Mario 64 DS (very long legs and consistently pretty decent seller).
 
jvm said:
donny2112 pointed out in a recent thread that Nintendo listed some sales charts in its emails. Here is the top 10 NDS games for January 2011:
http://i52.tinypic.com/24edqmc.png[IMG]
As text:
[LIST=1]
[*]Kingdom Hearts Re:coded
[*]New Super Mario Bros.
[*]Mario vs. Donkey Kong: Mini-land Mayhem!
[*]Mario Kart DS
[*]Super Scribblenauts
[*]Super Mario 64 DS
[*]Call of Duty: Black Ops
[*]Plants vs. Zombies
[*]Sonic Colors
[*]Pokémon SoulSilver Version
[/LIST][/QUOTE]Was about to post this myself. Surprised to see KH at the top, 358/2 Days barely made the top 10. Also I don't remember the COD DS games making the top 10 before... Everything else is pretty predictable (except maybe SM64 still charting).
 
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