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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

3rdamention

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Oct 27, 2006
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but we can't use that as an indication for the entire north america can we?

Well, amazon charts have always been right when predicting the NPD hardware sales positions, all the way back to launch....


They still in no way can predict numbers or anything
 

The Shogun

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Jul 24, 2014
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Oh. Well that's actually pretty good then. Was the benchmarking too aggressive?
Not sure and keep in mind I have zero idea of how its performing with other companies. These are personal thinking based on what I've seen with reservation numbers and the opening few days. It could end up quite a bit under or over Dying Light but if I were to guess right now it'll likely do at least 300k. Of course though don't consider this an official number, just my general outlook.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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lets puts things in perspective here first. when you say you don't have high hopes, what do you expect the sales to be in the US in February? i am looking for a ballpark as to what your barometer is for success and failure?

i am guessing like 400k in the US for february npd. I would say selling like 1-1.5 million worldwide in the first month would be a success for a new ip on one system.
This is what I mentioned earlier to the previous user: a debut in February NPD between 250-300k. if the title reviews are positive, surely it'll be higher, 350k-400k.

These titles are always front-loaded and rarely have long-tails at retail.

Beyond: Two Souls was a new IP and sold over 1 million - is it considered a success? No. Okay but disappointing results? Surely.

That's what I expect The Order to do, around the same ballpark as Beyond: Two Souls.

But hey I could be mistaken, and I hope I am.
 
Jul 31, 2007
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Keep in mind XBO sold 2.6 million units in Nov and December. It basically outdid the 360's record, in only its 2nd holiday. PS4 did 1.9 or so million in the same time frame. Again, besting any records for Sony's best seller, PS2, in those months, in only its second holiday.

These systems are doing just fine. Well, maybe just those two, but for most devs/pubs and gamers they're the only two that matter anyway.

I could try to find a way to spin this to look bad if I tried hard enough.
I'm not trying to spin it either way. Just noting how exceptionally strange it is. Both are performing like market leaders during the holiday months. This past Nov/Dec One in particular. But in regular months selling more like second and third place consoles of prior generations.
 

pager99

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Apr 16, 2014
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Eh... this was January 2008
Code:
Wii        X360      PS3       PS2        NDS        PSP    
274,000    230,000   269,000   264,000    251,000    230,000
Could you care to give a bit of context as to what big games were releases for 7th gen that January it would be interest to compare it to this January's release slate
 

Y2Kev

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I'm not trying to spin it either way. Just noting how exceptionally strange it is. Both are performing like market leaders during the holiday months. This past Nov/Dec One in particular. But in regular months selling more like second and third place consoles of prior generations.
maybe they are related? it's possible people just spend their money differently these days. though i dunno why.
 

CosmicQueso

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Oh, I thought you were going to say it needed to do well to prove that the DLCmageddon strategy could successfully raise the MSRP of a game!
Good God man! Nooooooooooooooo...

The data I look at suggests that the best way to maintain higher average pricing is to make games that encourage extended engagement. It's not dumping a ton of skins and nonsense at launch and making people feel ripped off. It's more about providing incentives to continue playing. And it's not about taking things away and charging for them, but rather adding things over time. Can't always get it right, but that's the way I want to be treated, so I think it's the right path?
 
Nov 16, 2007
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Could you care to give a bit of context as to what big games were releases for 7th gen that January it would be interest to compare it to this January's release slate
Going by Wikipedia:

Wii: Sonic Riders: Zero Gravity, Harvey Birdman: Attorney at Law, CSI: Hard Evidence, No More Heroes, We Ski, Nitrobike

PS3: Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice, Burnout Paradise

Xbox 360: Burnout Paradise
 

pastrami

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May 23, 2014
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maybe they are related? it's possible people just spend their money differently these days. though i dunno why.
Maybe as the industry becomes more hit-based, there's more incentive for people to pick up consoles during the holidays, when most of the big titles come out.
 

allan-bh

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Could you care to give a bit of context as to what big games were releases for 7th gen that January it would be interest to compare it to this January's release slate
Burnout Paradise was the best selling new game with 227k (360+PS3)

360 had Kingdom Under Fire: Circle of Doom too. Wii had No More Heroes and Sonic Riders.
 

Three

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Oct 26, 2014
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Could you care to give a bit of context as to what big games were releases for 7th gen that January it would be interest to compare it to this January's release slate

Rune Factory 2: A Fantasy
Harvest Moon
Harvey Birdman: Attorney at Law
Sonic Riders: Zero Gravity
CSI: Hard Evidence
Nanostray 2
Nitrobike
Rail Simulator
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games
Advance Wars: Days of Ruin
Burnout Paradise
No More Heroes
Pirates of the Burning Sea
Lost Kingdoms
Disgaea 3: Absence of Justice
Super Smash Bros. Brawl (Japan only I think)
We Ski

We are talking about the following month of 2007 though. The legendary game year.

Edit: beaten
 

The Shogun

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Jul 24, 2014
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Honestly one thing I feel is somewhat slowing these consoles is the lack of GAME CHANGER titles that are new IP only on current gen.

There is no equivalent to Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Uncharted, Assassins Creed, etc. These types of titles made consumers believe they NEEDED a new system. The big new IPs, Watch Dogs and Destiny, were both on last gen as well.
 

CosmicQueso

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Jan 2008 was the first Jan with Call of Duty 4.

Also had Guitar Hero 3 driving mass market.

Those were pretty monster...

I mean Paradise was the #6 game that month in units...
 

ascii42

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Thanks nothing stellar so
Games from the previous year like COD4, Rock Band, and Guitar Hero 3 were probably still pushing quite a few sales. In particular, I think that's why the PS2 was so high.

If I remember correctly, that's also around when WB cut off support for HD-DVD, which at the time was a big deal in solidifying Blu-Ray as the HD format of choice.
 

Chobel

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I'm guessing February and March sales will also be lower than last year, because there seems to be nothing that push sales (Hardware+Software) in the next couple of months.
 

sora87

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Honestly one thing I feel is somewhat slowing these consoles is the lack of GAME CHANGER titles that are new IP only on current gen.

There is no equivalent to Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Uncharted, Assasaetc Creed, etc. These types of titles made consumers believe they NEEDED a new system. The big new IPs, Watch Dogs and Destiny, were both on last gen as well.
I agree, hopefully this year the big hitters start appearing. Some new IP and possibly Fallout 4 + Mass Effect 4 as next gen only would push a lot of people to make the jump. Genuinely just stopping last-gen ports would do it too though.
 

Elios83

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Honestly one thing I feel is somewhat slowing these consoles is the lack of GAME CHANGER titles that are new IP only on current gen.

There is no equivalent to Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Uncharted, Assasaetc Creed, etc. These types of titles made consumers believe they NEEDED a new system. The big new IPs, Watch Dogs and Destiny, were both on last gen as well.
True, but this year luckily the number of cross gen titles will fall off a cliff.
 

ZSaberLink

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If the 3DS base is such that people waiting for the N3DS could cause it to crater, then that says something interesting to me about the base.
Yup it's kind of interesting. Although they could just be well informed? Or expecting the normal 3DS XL to get a pricecut?

They told you that when they removed the power cable. That signified a complete throwing in of the towel on the short-term dedicated handheld market. They're giving up on doing anything but managing that business down, at least until their new box, if they even decide to make one.
Hm? They did that in Japan first though right where they're clearly mainstream? I'm not really sure it's a "complete throwing in of the towel" as opposed to just being silly considering the Americas was the last territory they did that (the charger stuff was a thing in JP I think in like 2013 or maybe even earlier).

I knew Wii U would be up this year over last year. 2015 will be it's peak, not 2014.
For Jan - April I think the Wii U will be up YoY (Smash & Mario Kart 8 continuing + Kirby + Mario Party 10). The question is starting in May. If Splatoon releases earlier in May, I could see Wii U sales being up in May, but starting in June it'll be tough. Maybe a good E3 showing again could help?

And nobody cares about Play-doh Kirby ;.;
At least on Amazon yeh. Seems to be doing quite poorly there...

If I don't mistake in Feb. and March Sony will have The Order and Bloodborne, and MS won't have any AAA exclusive.

So even if Dark Soul games weren't big sellers I think PS4 will keep selling more than XBO in US until at least mid April.

And does WiiU have any big release until then?
Kirby & Mario Party 10 are its two retail releases (2/20 and 3/12)
 

Derpyduck

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Jul 27, 2014
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Keep in mind XBO sold 2.6 million units in Nov and December. It basically outdid the 360's record, in only its 2nd holiday. PS4 did 1.9 or so million in the same time frame. Again, besting any records for Sony's best seller, PS2, in those months, in only its second holiday.

These systems are doing just fine. Well, maybe just those two, but for most devs/pubs and gamers they're the only two that matter anyway.

I could try to find a way to spin this to look bad if I tried hard enough.

Honestly I didn't even check the list for some weeks until tonight xD. The last time I saw it, that bundle was out. Did a double-take tho and it's priced at about $350, so I guess Artisan was technically right.

Even so none of the commercials on TV mention the bundle, so they make it sound like the bundle doesn't exist. And I think the bundle's only available at Amazon or online.
Not sure where your info is coming from. =)

The only Xbox One I ever see being sold anywhere is the AC bundle. There hasn't been a stand-alone unit available since around October.
 

damisa

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Oct 5, 2005
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192K is mediocre for a market leading console, Sony needs to drop the price. MS needs to bundle again. Wii u is a lost cause.

Here is PS2 and Wii 2nd Feb/March:
PS2 Feb 417k
PS2 Mar 362k

Wii Feb 432k
Wii Mar 721k

and we have people hoping for PS4 to hit 200k next month? seriously how low are your expectations.
 

Derpyduck

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Jul 27, 2014
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192K is mediocre for a market leading console, Sony needs to drop the price. MS needs to bundle again. Wii u is a lost cause.
MS is still bundling. Sony is too. Amazon has even been trying to help Sony out by bundling games along with TLOU. First it was Dying Light, then a year of PS+, and now it's Mordor. It's January.
 

SparkTR

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Jul 16, 2008
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I guess I don't get this argument on its own. Not saying there isn't some merit to it, but there are approximately 15 million more people in our country now than there were at that time. Plus, our economy is better.
Also no/barely any hardware shortages unlike last generation, they were having issues keeping up with demand for months then, now they sold so much upfront there's no telling if or when things are going to slow down.
 

TomShoe

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Oct 27, 2013
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Honestly one thing I feel is somewhat slowing these consoles is the lack of GAME CHANGER titles that are new IP only on current gen.

There is no equivalent to Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Uncharted, Assassins Creed, etc. These types of titles made consumers believe they NEEDED a new system. The big new IPs, Watch Dogs and Destiny, were both on last gen as well.
I don't quite get that reasoning. Haven't last gen software sales fallen off sharply in recent months? It doesn't seem like a lot of people are buying Watch Dogs or Destiny for PS360.
 

Road

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192K is mediocre for a market leading console, Sony needs to drop the price. MS needs to bundle again. Wii u is a lost cause.
It isn't even mediocre, it is poor. PS3 only sold less than 200k in January 2012, five years after the launch.

Now we have confirmation why Sony has been doing deals in February. I think they'll only drop the price in the second half of the year, though.

Based on the posted numbers:



PS4 and Xbox One have fallen behind PS2.
 

ethomaz

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I'm guessing February and March sales will also be lower than last year, because there seems to be nothing that push sales (Hardware+Software) in the next couple of months.
Bloodborne and The Order... I do think they will move hardware.
 

AgentP

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Jun 5, 2011
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MS is still bundling. Sony is too. Amazon has even been trying to help Sony out by bundling games along with TLOU. First it was Dying Light, then a year of PS+, and now it's Mordor. It's January.
Dying light was not free and these bundles do not come from Amazon, at least not without cooperation with Sony.
 

sense

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Aug 4, 2012
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This is what I mentioned earlier to the previous user: a debut in February NPD between 250-300k. if the title reviews are positive, surely it'll be higher, 350k-400k.

These titles are always front-loaded and rarely have long-tails at retail.

Beyond: Two Souls was a new IP and sold over 1 million - is it considered a success? No. Okay but disappointing results? Surely.

That's what I expect The Order to do, around the same ballpark as Beyond: Two Souls.

But hey I could be mistaken, and I hope I am.
unless you are an established big ip that sells millions, sales are going to crater the next month for 90% of the games
it seems like you have some unrealistic expectations for a new single player only ip. beyond was a failure as it came out at the wrong time on the wrong platform and most of those 1 million were at discounted prices during the holidays anyways.

450k for dying light seems like a good result according to many here and that is on 2 platforms so IF order sells like 300-400k shouldn't that be a good result?

what does the title need to sell lets say ltd for you to say that was a good result for the game since first month sales are not enough to define success.
 

allan-bh

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PS4 finished 2014 almost at Wii levels worldwide, but sales in USA are far from being impressive after launch.
 

HateGames

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is the industry dying? serious question. $350 really isnt that much for a game console especially when u consider inflation rates. im sure consoles used to cost more past gens.

sony and ms have been bundling heavily, how much lower could they even go at this early stage.
 

DaleinCalgary

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Feb 9, 2014
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Honestly one thing I feel is somewhat slowing these consoles is the lack of GAME CHANGER titles that are new IP only on current gen.

There is no equivalent to Bioshock, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Uncharted, Assassins Creed, etc. These types of titles made consumers believe they NEEDED a new system. The big new IPs, Watch Dogs and Destiny, were both on last gen as well.
I still think the change to HD really helped those games become special. I bought a 360 because Bioshock looked so good.
 

TomShoe

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Oct 27, 2013
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unless you are an established big ip that sells millions, sales are going to crater the next month for 90% of the games
it seems like you have some unrealistic expectations for a new single player only ip. beyond was a failure as it came out at the wrong time on the wrong platform and most of those 1 million were at discounted prices during the holidays anyways.

450k for dying light seems like a good result according to many here and that is on 2 platforms so IF order sells like 300-400k shouldn't that be a good result?

what does the title need to sell lets say ltd for you to say that was a good result for the game since first month sales are not enough to define success.
I'd bet Sony is being pretty realistic as far as sales expectations go. The graphics are outstanding, but it couldn't have been to expensive, considering the lack of multiplayer and not needing to spend resources on it.
 
Jul 31, 2007
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It isn't even mediocre, it is poor. PS3 only sold less than 200k in January 2012, five years after the launch.

Now we have confirmation why Sony has been doing deals in February. I think they'll only drop the price in the second half of the year, though.

Based on the posted numbers:



PS4 and Xbox One have fallen behind PS2.
Huh...

I knew it was going to happen, but I'll admit, sooner than I expected.
 

ryan299

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Nov 17, 2013
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is the industry dying? serious question. $350 really isnt that much for a game console especially when u consider inflation rates. im sure consoles used to cost more past gens.

sony and ms have been bundling heavily, how much lower could they even go at this early stage.
More like it stopped growing. I never understood why analysts said this generation would be larger than the last. Majority of the casual people the wii brought in left for mobile games.

Ps4 and x1 aren't going to pick up all those sales. I see this generation selling less than last. No way it goes higher.