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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

EatMyFace

Banned
Nov 4, 2014
1,026
0
0
In Your Basement
192K is mediocre for a market leading console, Sony needs to drop the price. MS needs to bundle again. Wii u is a lost cause.

Here is PS2 and Wii 2nd Feb/March:
PS2 Feb 417k
PS2 Mar 362k

Wii Feb 432k
Wii Mar 721k

and we have people hoping for PS4 to hit 200k next month? seriously how low are your expectations.
It's January, numbers aren't expected to be massive, especially not at $399.
 

The Artisan

Member
Jul 13, 2014
22,636
0
540
Bloodbourne won't move consoles to the mass channel. It's way too hardcore.

The Order may see some movement but not as much as many people hope.
I think the souls series has helped to make this type of game more mainstream. It may move consoles.
Probably going to stay like that too. PS2 and Wii were just beasts.
Ps4 is yet to see its first pricecut. Wii was always cheaper than the competition but did the Ps2 have a pricecut by this time?
 

Suzushiiro

Banned
Aug 7, 2013
3,093
0
0
New York, NY
I'm not trying to spin it either way. Just noting how exceptionally strange it is. Both are performing like market leaders during the holiday months. This past Nov/Dec One in particular. But in regular months selling more like second and third place consoles of prior generations.
Someone may throw actual evidence at me to contradict this, but I feel like holiday deals have become a much bigger thing now than the were at this point in the last cycle. That's going to result in November/December being much higher and the rest of the year, especially Q1, being much lower relative to previous generations.
 

RE_Player

Member
Apr 1, 2013
6,183
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0
Xbox will always have strong holidays. They often save their exclusives for the fall and winter months. I don't expect them to beat PS4 numbers until October or possibly September if they end up putting Halo 5 out that early.
 

Swarna

Member
Apr 2, 2013
1,773
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0
Bloodbourne won't move consoles to the mass channel. It's way too hardcore.

The Order may see some movement but not as much as many people hope.
I think you're underestimating it. The Souls series has been getting progressively more awareness and hype with the casual crowd with every entry. At least in my experience. I've seen it being mentioned by people and in places I wouldn't expect. Won't be a huge system seller but I think it'll do a nice number.
 

ascii42

Member
Mar 27, 2007
14,340
1
1,035
Georgia
I think the souls series has helped to make this type of game more mainstream. It may move consoles.

Ps4 is yet to see its first pricecut. Wii was always cheaper than the competition but did the Ps2 have a pricecut by this time?
PS2's first price cut was May 2002, so we've got a couple months.
 

TheExecutive

Member
Jan 3, 2009
6,510
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0
Denver, CO
I think the souls series has helped to make this type of game more mainstream. It may move consoles.

Ps4 is yet to see its first pricecut. Wii was always cheaper than the competition but did the Ps2 have a pricecut by this time?
If MS forces their hands PS4 will see one next holiday season. Crushing sales will ensue.
 

SparkTR

Member
Jul 16, 2008
9,571
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0
Someone may throw actual evidence at me to contradict this, but I feel like holiday deals have become a much bigger thing now than the were at this point in the last cycle. That's going to result in November/December being much higher and the rest of the year, especially Q1, being much lower relative to previous generations.
I think it's just the manufacturers being forced to take advantage of key dates (holidays, hardware launches, event shows) than they have in the past due to the variety of alternatives that have come into the market in the past five years. Left on it's own console hardware can be drowned out by mobile gaming, F2P stuff, streaming services, Steam sales etc. There's so much disruption out there fighting for a consumers time and money, platform holders need those massive, expensive soap boxes to break through that noise now more than ever.
 

IcyEyes

Member
Nov 15, 2008
2,179
0
765
192K is mediocre for a market leading console, Sony needs to drop the price. MS needs to bundle again. Wii u is a lost cause.

Here is PS2 and Wii 2nd Feb/March:
PS2 Feb 417k
PS2 Mar 362k

Wii Feb 432k
Wii Mar 721k

and we have people hoping for PS4 to hit 200k next month? seriously how low are your expectations.
We are spreading positivity here ...
 

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
Feb 26, 2005
17,582
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Santa Destroy
Didn't EA, Ubisoft and Activision all just recently announce better-than-expected earnings? Some records broken?

Industry doomed!!! Pack it up boys, No ones making any money so the industry will probably be gone by February
 

Suzushiiro

Banned
Aug 7, 2013
3,093
0
0
New York, NY
Ps4 is yet to see its first price cut.
To be fair, PS2 hadn't seen a price drop yet either at January 2002.

It had seen several of its best selling games by January of '02 (GT3, GTA3, FFX, MGS2,) which is probably the reason for the difference. Of course, it had also technically been out for half a year longer at January '02 than the PS4 has now (PS2's Japanese launch was in March of '00,) which is the main reason why it had its first big wave of good releases in late '01 while PS4's first big wave isn't coming until this year, so it's kind of unfair to compare the two based on number of months in the US market.
 

RukusProvider

Banned
Mar 1, 2011
4,286
0
0
Didn't EA, Ubisoft and Activision all just recently announce better-than-expected earnings? Some records broken?

Industry doomed!!! Pack it up boys, No ones making any money so the industry will probably be gone by February
I'd imagine adoption rates, moblie platform and transaction models (DLC, micro, etc) that they all jumped into last gen are paying off nicely.

These price points are still mainly enthusiasts who spend more on a game than your "casual" gamer.
 

Lacrus

Member
Jun 19, 2013
121
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0
So XB1 is only up YoY by 7% with a 150$ price drop and bundled with 2 games.

PS4 YoY drop was expected, no price cut.
 

SparkTR

Member
Jul 16, 2008
9,571
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0
Didn't EA, Ubisoft and Activision all just recently announce better-than-expected earnings? Some records broken?

Industry doomed!!! Pack it up boys, No ones making any money so the industry will probably be gone by February
That's a sign of consolidation. The majority of the revenue gets soaked up by a few larger players in the industry while everything around them withers. Like in 2013, despite being the year which saw the launch of the biggest selling game of all time, it saw a steady decrease in software sales compared to the already disappointing 2012.

There's going to be a whole lot more homogenization of game design, consolidation of profits and bankrupt developers and publishers this generation. Fewer and fewer will remain in the AAA space.
 

Log4Girlz

Member
May 23, 2006
40,795
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Didn't EA, Ubisoft and Activision all just recently announce better-than-expected earnings? Some records broken?

Industry doomed!!! Pack it up boys, No ones making any money so the industry will probably be gone by February
What did Square say about those companies?
 

vesvci

Banned
Oct 17, 2014
1,218
0
0
Bloodbourne won't move consoles to the mass channel. It's way too hardcore.

The Order may see some movement but not as much as many people hope.
1) TO1886 and BB will move consoles
2) The PS4 is doing great even without those two

It's a win-win really.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
8,549
0
0
unless you are an established big ip that sells millions, sales are going to crater the next month for 90% of the games - 1
it seems like you have some unrealistic expectations for a new single player only ip. beyond was a failure as it came out at the wrong time on the wrong platform and most of those 1 million were at discounted prices during the holidays anyways. - 2

450k for dying light seems like a good result according to many here and that is on 2 platforms so IF order sells like 300-400k shouldn't that be a good result? - 3

what does the title need to sell lets say ltd for you to say that was a good result for the game since first month sales are not enough to define success.
1 - That's not true. Minecraft for example was not an established IP and went against market realities. Mojand created their own universe and catered to an audience that had been largely ignored by many publishers. Sony (The Order) is creating a game that caters to the same audience that buys COD, Destiny, Evolve, Dying Light, Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed, etc. - it's a much more competitive and crowded environment. The decline of 90% falls solely on Sony's shoulders as it did nothing to distinguish the Order from the many.

2 - I don't have unrealistic expectations. I say the Order should sell as much if not more than Beyond: Two Souls, a 1 million + title. I would view that as a disappointment if the Order would do comparable numbers. This was a game that was suppose to release in the Holiday season to boot. More development time = more money spent.

3 - Dying Light did great but at the end of the day, it all depends on the expectations set by the publishers themselves. If it's profitable, it's a success surely. Shuhei Yoshida mentioned that only 3-4 Sony published titles out of 10 make money. If the Order sells 300-400k in February (a solid opening) and plummets next month, is that a good result and a profitable venture? No.

4 - See all three notes.
 

The Artisan

Member
Jul 13, 2014
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If MS forces their hands PS4 will see one next holiday season. Crushing sales will ensue.
what do you mean? that mS will cut the price of the xbone again or that the momentum will pick up again?
Wasn't the PS2 cheaper than it's competition too?
I don't know. But it was definitely less than $400.
To be fair, PS2 hadn't seen a price drop yet either at January 2002.
True but it wasn't $400 to boot. Ps4's been doing this well so far at that price point, I think its success will continue fair if sony cuts the price.
 

Suzushiiro

Banned
Aug 7, 2013
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I think it's just the manufacturers being forced to take advantage of key dates (holidays, hardware launches, event shows) than they have in the past due to the variety of alternatives that have come into the market in the past five years. Left on it's own console hardware can be drowned out by mobile gaming, F2P stuff, streaming services, Steam sales etc. There's so much disruption out there fighting for a consumers time and money, platform holders need those massive, expensive soap boxes to break through that noise now more than ever.
Yeah, I think the new "normal" is going to be sales spiking around big launches, price cuts, holiday deals, etc. and being relatively bad for the rest of the year. Sales overall will be fine, but we're going to have to put up with "OMG CONSOLE GAMING IS DOOMED" every time an NPD cycle goes by without any of those things.
 
Sep 15, 2011
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Didn't EA, Ubisoft and Activision all just recently announce better-than-expected earnings? Some records broken?

Industry doomed!!! Pack it up boys, No ones making any money so the industry will probably be gone by February
People have blinders on. They are looking at a single set of numbers and not taking in the entire picture. Which would show these consoles had a faster start than anyother console, for some reason developers weren't prepared for the switch (still have cross gen and last gen only games), and I don't think it can be understated that MS pricing during the holiday is going to have an affect on both consoles until an official price drop happens for both. This gen is unlike anyother gen in its trajectory and landscape, looking at numbers in a vacuum is a mistake.
 

BlowoverKing

Banned
Mar 16, 2014
266
0
0
So any estimates on handheld hardware? I see PSTV is ~6.6k and Vita is 39% of 3DS but do we have any actual numbers? It seems that depending on how 3DS hardware goes Vita could be up YoY for January.
 

Elios83

Member
Jun 30, 2004
14,544
90
1,635
If MS forces their hands PS4 will see one next holiday season. Crushing sales will ensue.
It has nothing to do with MS imo.
Their biggest competition is their own record-breaking first year.
What do they expect and what do they want to do from now on with their PS4 business after selling more than 18.5m units so far?
Achieving growth in this situation is really difficult if not impossible, the PS4 would need to become a mass market fad and that's quite frankly unlikely to happen. PS4 success is based on gamers.
At the same time I don't think that they'll like to see their business sinking already in year two, not now that Playstation has become a focus for the whole corporation and they need to sell a lot of software and subscriptions to make profits.
They'll set an internal target and will cut the price later this year accordingly, maybe we'll get a hint of what's in store when the 2015 forecast is announced in May.
Honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see a 299$ PS4 and Xbone later this year, actually for Xbox is pretty much certain.
 

ascii42

Member
Mar 27, 2007
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True but it wasn't $400 to boot. Ps4's been doing this well so far at that price point, I think its success will continue fair if sony cuts the price.
Taking inflation into consideration, $400 in today's money is right around the same as $300 was back then. Of course, that's ignoring the economy.
 

Z3M0G

Member
Jan 16, 2012
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505
Returns of consoles sold in December reflect negatively (causing a reduction) on the numbers in January.

Likely not many of those thought, right?
 

tapedeck

Do I win a prize for talking about my penis on the Internet???
Oct 8, 2005
10,391
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So XB1 is only up YoY by 7% with a 150$ price drop and bundled with 2 games.

PS4 YoY drop was expected, no price cut.
No, XB1 price was back up to $399 for first two weeks of January, no doubt that hurt sales.
 

gamechanger87

Member
Jul 10, 2013
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I think you're underestimating it. The Souls series has been getting progressively more awareness and hype with the casual crowd with every entry. At least in my experience. I've seen it being mentioned by people and in places I wouldn't expect. Won't be a huge system seller but I think it'll do a nice number.
Dark Souls 2 sold around 2m or so in total right? I haven't seen an updated figure for it. This was across 360, PS3 and PC. This included a decent share in Japan.

Blood bourne is on one console with no where near that combined market. That is why I don't think it will kill it.
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
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I think $299 kinda is the new $199 mass market price point

Both console with games and this price will peak.
 

Opiate

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Dec 4, 2007
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More like it stopped growing. I never understood why analysts said this generation would be larger than the last. Majority of the casual people the wii brought in left for mobile games.

Ps4 and x1 aren't going to pick up all those sales. I see this generation selling less than last. No way it goes higher.
Well, that's another way of saying it shrank. It may return to say, PS2-gen levels.

There can be a sustainable business with a stable but not growing user base, but there are a few problems:

1) That only works if production costs stop growing.
2) Because other segments of the market are growing and are significantly more profitable, it runs the risk of eventually being outpaced and potentially consumed.

But those are long term concerns and it's totally possible solutions will be found before they reach "emergency" status.