NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

Aquamarine

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No one thinks that XB1 leads in lifetime software over the PS4. But there is no denying that the fact that the XB1 beat the PS4 in six of the nine multiplatform titles in the top ten this month. It sure does lead one to believe that for this one month, XB1 did beat Sony in software despite being so far behind in console sales.
Nice try.

But PS4 > XB1 this month in terms of software.


It's been said that the gap between retail PS4 + XB1 software is <5% this month. That's absolutely correct...PS4 and XB1 are neck-in-neck.

In their misleading PR statement, Microsoft was undoubtedly referring to the software sales *relative to userbase* or *sales per console*...that's true, the Xbox One is leading.

It continues to have a higher tie ratio than the PS4, after all.


But it HAS NOT sold more games, no matter how you look at it. So the "Top 10" January sales are misleading in that regard.
 

Rymuth

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Your saying this has actually suddenly made me realise just how few non violent games are on the WiiU.

Sure, it's often covered up by cutesy non graphic art styles, but other than Captain Toad and Minigame collections I'm drawing a blank on big name titles that don't involve hurting and/or killing others.
I don't know, man, Splatoon looks pretty violent. :p
 

Stilton Disco

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I don't know, man, Splatoon looks pretty violent. :p
That's exactly what I'm getting at though. Sure, it looks like a Pixar movie and the cutesy little squid people spray colourful ink at each other, but when you get down to it, you're still just trying to hurt and 'kill' the other characters. Hell, the single player mode is supposed to be about a genocidal war with Octopuses' you're fighting in, even if it is presented in a cartoon Supervilliany manner.

There just aren't the wealth of non violent games there usually are on Nintendo systems.
 
Feb 15, 2013
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I wonder if they will be able to keep up this symbiosis throughout the remaining 8th-gen lifespan in the USA market, or if one platform will begin to cannibalize the other.
Well you can certainly say that PS4 is well placed to storm ahead again in the USA if they can price-match the Bone. Or even go cheaper, for a period at least, if they are first to drop the price to $299.
 

QaaQer

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Your saying this has actually suddenly made me realise just how few non violent games are on the WiiU.

Sure, it's often covered up by cutesy non graphic art styles, but other than Captain Toad and Minigame collections I'm drawing a blank on big name titles that don't involve hurting and/or killing others. I mean when you get down to it, even MK8 is as much about attacking the other racers as it is about being a competitive sport.

They really need more games along the lines of Harvest Moon, Animal Crossing, Prof Layton, Pilot Wings, Pokemon Snap and the like, that they've had on previous consoles.
Indeed they do.
 

ZhugeEX

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I wonder if they will be able to keep up this symbiosis throughout the remaining 8th-gen lifespan in the USA market, or if one platform will begin to cannibalize the other.
I think we all know the answer to this, Ouya will cannibalise PS4 and X1 sales.

hehe, but seriously, PS4 will remain ahead of Xbox One and I expect the gap to grow over the next few years.
 

Fafalada

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Casual gamers were never really big on buying a lot of games, and I wonder how much their absence or lower number is going to affect traditional, big AAA games
The biggest games are already monetized as close to being a service as possible without people calling them bad-names associated with it, so they will survive as long as they retain repeat-users.
The rest mostly don't quite qualify for "traditional big AAA" monicker anymore - but so far at least they still sell - if you look at the number one this month.
 

CosmicQueso

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I'm wondering if the actual hardcore gamers market is growing or shrinking, it's hard to say at the moment...
Somewhat hidden by the proliferation of post purchase revenue drivers... the core gaming audience are the ones spending the most on DLC and season passes. Dunno if there are fewer, but the ones that are there are spending more per title now than they did last gen.

And I'm thinking it's not just casuals that have left the console market (or have at least reduced spending or stuck with old gen), there's a not insignificant number that have likely moved to the PC F2P space like MOBA and WoT, etc.

There's enough stuff coming at E3 that will be targeted directly at the casual/family market that we'll know much more this time next year.

Much more interesting to me is what happens 10 years from now, or maybe 15. Once dedicated handhelds go away for good, and we're left with kids playing mobile as their primary doorway into gaming (which is already happening, but at least right now there's potential they pick up a 3DS in their tweens. Not sure if this will still be true in 5 years), will they even comprehend a $60 (or really any) upfront fee for a video game? The whole model may (likely will) be made extinct because of the purchase patterns of a generation brought up on f2p.
 

Rogue_Ledr

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I still have to wonder what the numbers would look like if MS had not done that retarded move reading the price back up. Their sales probably took a nose dive during that time frame.
 

Opiate

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Somewhat hidden by the proliferation of post purchase revenue drivers... the core gaming audience are the ones spending the most on DLC and season passes. Dunno if there are fewer, but the ones that are there are spending more per title now than they did last gen.

And I'm thinking it's not just casuals that have left the console market (or have at least reduced spending or stuck with old gen), there's a not insignificant number that have likely moved to the PC F2P space like MOBA and WoT, etc.

There's enough stuff coming at E3 that will be targeted directly at the casual/family market that we'll know much more this time next year.

Much more interesting to me is what happens 10 years from now, or maybe 15. Once dedicated handhelds go away for good, and we're left with kids playing mobile as their primary doorway into gaming (which is already happening, but at least right now there's potential they pick up a 3DS in their tweens. Not sure if this will still be true in 5 years), will they even comprehend a $60 (or really any) upfront fee for a video game? The whole model may (likely will) be made extinct because of the purchase patterns of a generation brought up on f2p.
It's not just the pricing scheme kids might object to. If they grow up playing LoL and Clash of Clans instead of Mario and Halo, that can significantly affect their taste in later life.
 
Dec 20, 2013
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64k? So even with Mario Kart, even with Smash, Nintendo couldn't move the needle more than 15K units?

I know that Sakurai said he didn't want to do extensive Smash Bros. DLC, but if that wasn't a given before, it's all but a sure thing now. Likewise, we'll definitely be seeing more Mario Kart DLC after the Animal Crossing pack comes out.
 

Aquamarine

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64k? So even with Mario Kart, even with Smash, Nintendo couldn't move the needle more than 15K units?

I know that Sakurai said he didn't want to do extensive Smash Bros. DLC, but if that wasn't a given before, it's all but a sure thing now. Likewise, we'll definitely be seeing more Mario Kart DLC after the Animal Crossing pack comes out.
Not even 64K.

It makes you wonder, doesn't it?

I find it amazing that Wii U sales this month are barely above January 2013.

You know...that disastrous post-launch period where the BEST selling Wii U game only managed 63K, and the BEST selling third-party game only sold 20K?

To see that Wii U hardware has barely moved the needle from that period...even with NSMBU, Pikmin 3, Super Mario 3D World, Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit U, Hyrule Warriors, Mario & Sonic, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong Country, Super Smash Bros., amiibos, Just Dance.... it's absolutely surreal.

If you told a 2011 Aquamarine (right after the Wii U E3 reveal) that all of those games would only amount to a tiny 3rd January....I wouldn't have believed you in the slightest. It's fascinating in hindsight to see how far they've fallen.
 

GamerJM

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Your saying this has actually suddenly made me realise just how few non violent games are on the WiiU.

Sure, it's often covered up by cutesy non graphic art styles, but other than Captain Toad and Minigame collections I'm drawing a blank on big name titles that don't involve hurting and/or killing others. I mean when you get down to it, even MK8 is as much about attacking the other racers as it is about being a competitive sport.

They really need more games along the lines of Harvest Moon, Animal Crossing, Prof Layton, Pilot Wings, Pokemon Snap and the like, that they've had on previous consoles.
Well I mean games like the Mario platformers and DKCTF don't involve killing and attacking humans specifically.
 

ascii42

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Not even 64K.

It makes you wonder, doesn't it?

I find it amazing that Wii U sales this month are barely above January 2013.

You know...that disastrous post-launch period where the BEST selling Wii U game only managed 63K, and the BEST selling third-party game only sold 20K?

To see that Wii U hardware has barely moved the needle from that period...even with NSMBU, Pikmin 3, Super Mario 3D World, Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit U, Mario & Sonic, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong Country, Super Smash Bros., amiibos, Just Dance.... it's absolutely surreal.

If you told a 2011 Aquamarine (right after the Wii U E3 reveal) that all of those games would only amount to a tiny January....I wouldn't have believed you in the slightest. It's fascinating in hindsight to see how far they've fallen.
That does put it into perspective. I remember how for a short time we thought the WiiU had a really good January due to misinterpreting a statement, then reality came crashing down.
 

shinra-bansho

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Okay then, how about metacritic scores? We can use the cut off of 90, which is the barrier for "universal acclaim."

EA on Wii: 2
EA on PS3/360: 4
Ubisoft on Wii: 1
Ubisoft on PS3/360: 2
ActivisionBlizzard on Wii: 0
ActivisionBlizzard on PS3/360: 2
Take 2 on Wii: 0
Take 2 on PS3/360: 4
Other third parties on Wii: 1
Other third parties on PS3/360: 16

Total for all on Wii: 4
Total for all on PS3/360: 26

This certainly doesn't seem like equivalently valuable support.

Now, I'm not a big believer in metacritic as a great metric for "quality," but you're sort of running me out of options. Apparently talking about top tier developers isn't a good metric; apparently R&D investment is not a good metric; so if this also isn't a good metric, I'm not sure what you want.

If you're saying "quality of support cannot be quantified," then I'm going to bristle at that. I've found that people are much more likely to reject all empirical data and suggest that you cannot quantify something when the empirical data doesn't support the argument they want to make.

Obviously I agree that not everything can be absolutely perfectly quantified, but that's very different than rejecting empirical data, and we have plenty to look at here, which almost universally leans in the same direction: the support for PS3/360 and Wii from third parties are not seem comparable. Money spent, known talent invested, critical reception of games, even popular reception of games based on user scores on metacritic -- all of this data hugely supports the notion that yes, the big four publishers did not back the Wii with the same amount or quality of effort as they did the PS3/360.
Again, I don't see how subjective quality of games as aggregately reviewed by enthusiast media amounts to the singular metric for "quality of effort" either. Or "quantity of effort" if these are to be separately assessed.

The things that enthusiast media value are not necessarily that which the target market values for games publishers made on the Wii value.

I'm not really asking you to run through potential metrics or necessarily disagreeing that greater effort was put into the 360 or PS3 by those metrics. But I also think that substantial effort was put into the Wii, despite common perception. And on whether that "effort" was of sufficient quality or quantity ymmv and largely needs to be qualified.

Given background, given understanding, given competencies, given existing business models, given competing platforms of better fit when examining these publishers, as you allude to in later posts, I wouldn't necessarily conclude they didn't put in as much as they could to succeed on the Wii, I'd say they did put in the effort but to very mixed results.
 

ZhugeEX

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Not even 64K.

It makes you wonder, doesn't it?

I find it amazing that Wii U sales this month are barely above January 2013.

You know...that disastrous post-launch period where the BEST selling Wii U game only managed 63K, and the BEST selling third-party game only sold 20K?

To see that Wii U hardware has barely moved the needle from that period...even with NSMBU, Pikmin 3, Super Mario 3D World, Wii Sports Club, Wii Fit U, Mario & Sonic, Mario Kart, Donkey Kong Country, Super Smash Bros., amiibos, Just Dance.... it's absolutely surreal.

If you told a 2011 Aquamarine (right after the Wii U E3 reveal) that all of those games would only amount to a tiny 3rd January....I wouldn't have believed you in the slightest. It's fascinating in hindsight to see how far they've fallen.
Speaking of... whatever happened to that Wii U chalboard thing?



Someone clearly forgot to add Zelda Musou to that!!!!!
Zelda Musou is the saviour.
 
May 21, 2014
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Odd to see all the consoles are doomed talk back so soon after the robust holiday numbers.

The only way to sustain negativity about this generation is by refusing to acknowledge what's been going on with Nintendo. PS4 + Xbone are handily outselling 360 + PS3 and PS2 + Xbox and that doesn't look liable to change anytime soon. The only contraction is coming from Nintendo's inability to hold on to the Wii's transient audience, which tells us nothing about the health of the market overall.

On a global scale this generation is in even ruder health.
 

ZhugeEX

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OMG, you guys. I can't stop laughing.
If you don't know I'm a massive musou fan. I was just browsing Chartz (because one of their users releases COMG Japan pre order numbers there in an easy to read format) and decided to take a look at the numbers they were putting out. Then I noticed the image below-

It shows that "Dynasty Warriors 8: Empires" was the 45th best selling game of the week ending Jan 31st in the USA. Just ahead of Middle Earth Shadow of Mordor.

Except there is just one issue. THE GAME DOESN'T COME OUT TILL THE END OF FEBRUARY! So how the hell have chartz "tracked" this game to place it as the 45th best seller of that week.... when the game hasn't even been released.

I really can't stop laughing at how people keep trusting chartz and posting their numbers as if it's gospel. This is just another bit of proof that chartz make up their numbers....The game was delayed from the date listed on chartz yet they haven't fixed it and have still released "tracked" numbers claiming it's the 45th best seller..... Unbelievable.

 

Manmademan

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Odd to see all the consoles are doomed talk back so soon after the robust holiday numbers.

The only way to sustain negativity about this generation is by refusing to acknowledge what's been going on with Nintendo. PS4 + Xbone are handily outselling 360 + PS3 and PS2 + Xbox and that doesn't look liable to change anytime soon. The only contraction is coming from Nintendo's inability to hold on to the Wii's transient audience, which tells us nothing about the health of the market overall.

On a global scale this generation is in even ruder health.
absolutely true. and if you're talking about the nintendo audience, that contraction isn't recent. The Wii lost those gamers for good sometime in 2010/2011. "Doom and Gloom" time was 4 to 5 years ago in the middle of last gen.
 

Alo0oy

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It is ?

I know Halo 4 MP disappoint, but I don't know if sales are declining.
Halo 3 sold 11 million, Halo 4 sold 8 million, that's a pretty big decline, I'm not sure if 343i is capable of reversing the trend.

Halo isn't the only first party IP to decline though, both GoW: Ascension & GeoW: Judgment sold like shit, but those were spin-offs so you can't draw any conclusion from them yet.
 

Percy

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Halo 3 sold 11 million, Halo 4 sold 8 million, that's a pretty big decline, I'm not sure if 343i is capable of reversing the trend.
If anything they've made the situation much much worse with the embarassing release of the Halo MCC. I think that situation coupled with disappointment in Halo 4 is going to significantly hit Halo 5's potential sales power.

Halo isn't the only first party IP to decline though, both GoW: Ascension & GeoW: Judgment sold like shit, but those were spin-offs so you can't draw any conclusion from them yet.
The argument can be made that those are both spin off titles though, which always sell less than 'mainline' entries. Not really comparable to what happened going from Halo 3 to 4.

I see the momentum shifting in Microsofts favor this new year.
Based on the exact opposite of that occurring in the first month of the year?

What do you believe is going to cause the turnaround?
 

Game Guru

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Again, I don't see how subjective quality of games as aggregately reviewed by enthusiast media amounts to the singular metric for "quality of effort" either. Or "quantity of effort" if these are to be separately assessed.

The things that enthusiast media value are not necessarily that which the target market values for games publishers made on the Wii value.

I'm not really asking you to run through potential metrics or necessarily disagreeing that greater effort was put into the 360 or PS3 by those metrics. But I also think that substantial effort was put into the Wii, despite common perception. And on whether that "effort" was of sufficient quality or quantity ymmv and largely needs to be qualified.

Given background, given understanding, given competencies, given existing business models, given competing platforms of better fit when examining these publishers, as you allude to in later posts, I wouldn't necessarily conclude they didn't put in as much as they could to succeed on the Wii, I'd say they did put in the effort but to very mixed results.
I think what Shinra-Bansho is talking about is that third-parties did put efforts into making games for the Wii in the genres that did extremely well on Wii. Basically, think of it like this... Call of Duty did absurdly well on the 360 & PS3 so everyone else copied Call of Duty on the 360 & PS3. On the Wii, Wii Sports did absurdly well so everyone else copied Wii Sports on the Wii. I would actually argue against that since Nintendo doesn't separate their development studios into A-Teams and B-Teams like third-parties do... Nintendo EAD Kyoto #2, who makes Animal Crossing and the Wii Series, gets as much respect from Nintendo as Nintendo EAD Kyoto #3, who makes Zelda, or Nintendo EAD Kyoto #1, who makes Mario Kart and Nintendogs. Heck, it's the Animal Crossing and Wii Series team who has been given the chance to make Splatoon, Nintendo's own spin on the popular shooter genre, and the first new 'core' IP for Nintendo since the DS and Wii.
 

Alo0oy

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Based on the exact opposite of that occurring in the first month of the year?

What do you believe is going to cause the turnaround?
Probably because of the attache rate.

One reason for Xbone's attache rate being higher could be that a lot of PS4 owners are more casual, I see a lot of people on Live from Playstation that don't know a lot about video games, Sony already said that a third of the PS4 owners didn't own a console last gen.
 

Ace Harding

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I'm about to finally pull the trigger on a PS4 this weekend, but was worried they'd drop the price soon. Any chance of that happening in the next couple of months or does topping the charts at a higher price (at least for most of the month) mean they'll probably keep it at $399 for a while?
 

CosmicQueso

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I'm about to finally pull the trigger on a PS4 this weekend, but was worried they'd drop the price soon. Any chance of that happening in the next couple of months or does topping the charts at a higher price (at least for most of the month) mean they'll probably keep it at $399 for a while?
Earliest something could happen would be June, but a price drop isn't likely in the next year. If anything, just different bundled games included for the same price.
 

Giriath_89

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I'm about to finally pull the trigger on a PS4 this weekend, but was worried they'd drop the price soon. Any chance of that happening in the next couple of months or does topping the charts at a higher price (at least for most of the month) mean they'll probably keep it at $399 for a while?
I think it's very unlikely Sony will drop the price this soon in the year. Some retailers may have temporary price drops though.
 

ZhugeEX

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I'm about to finally pull the trigger on a PS4 this weekend, but was worried they'd drop the price soon. Any chance of that happening in the next couple of months or does topping the charts at a higher price (at least for most of the month) mean they'll probably keep it at $399 for a while?
I wouldn't expect any official price drop until H2 2015 at the earliest.
 

shikamaroooo

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I'm about to finally pull the trigger on a PS4 this weekend, but was worried they'd drop the price soon. Any chance of that happening in the next couple of months or does topping the charts at a higher price (at least for most of the month) mean they'll probably keep it at $399 for a while?
Not looking likely with them being market leaders in Hardware sales.
 

Ace Harding

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Earliest something could happen would be June, but a price drop isn't likely in the next year. If anything, just different bundled games included for the same price.
I think it's very unlikely Sony will drop the price this soon in the year. Some retailers may have temporary price drops though.
I wouldn't expect any official price drop until H2 2015 at the earliest.
Not looking likely with them being market leaders in Hardware sales.
Very good, thanks all. I can live with a price drop in June if I buy at $399 with TLoU now.
 

Alo0oy

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If anything they've made the situation much much worse with the embarassing release of the Halo MCC. I think that situation coupled with disappointment in Halo 4 is going to significantly hit Halo 5's potential sales power.
Halo 5 selling even less than Halo 4 would be a disaster for MS, they're so reliant on Halo & Gears that if one of them declines they're so fucked first party-wise (Forza & Fable are non-factors).

But for some reason I don't expect Halo 5 to decline, maybe because its the first mainline Halo entry on Xbone.


The argument can be made that those are both spin off titles though, which always sell less than 'mainline' entries. Not really comparable to what happened going from Halo 3 to 4.
Yeah, I think both GoW4 & GeoW4 will sell over 5 million, spinoffs by a studio's B-team (no offense to the devs that worked on them) are hardly any indication.
 

John Harker

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Nice try.

But PS4 > XB1 this month in terms of software.


It's been said that the gap between retail PS4 + XB1 software is <5% this month. That's absolutely correct...PS4 and XB1 are neck-in-neck.

In their misleading PR statement, Microsoft was undoubtedly referring to the software sales *relative to userbase* or *sales per console*...that's true, the Xbox One is leading.

It continues to have a higher tie ratio than the PS4, after all.


But it HAS NOT sold more games, no matter how you look at it. So the "Top 10" January sales are misleading in that regard.
I don't see what is 'misleading' about their statement.
Their statement is leading you exactly where they want to lead you. It's also factual.

And to Nirolak's point, it's such a moot argument anyway.
Because there's virtually no real differentiation there.

PS4 sold more overall software in January.
Well, Xbox sold more overall software in December and November.

It's so close it's arbitrary.
If Xbox had 1 more game, just one more exclusive game, then it would have overall more software sales than PS4 because the difference is far less than 1MM total units. The difference between hardware sold to date is pretty small, and the software is relatively similar ratio (if slightly bent to MS). So it's meaningless any way you look at it. Both are healthy.
 

Krakn3Dfx

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Public opinion of the One is much better now.

You guys are undervaluing Halo.
Halo 4 was mediocre at best from start to finish, Halo MCC is a mess, 343 shows no real sign that they can meet the demands of a Halo title right now, and even if they do, there are 10 months between now and Halo 5 for MS to bring it, which based on announced titles and release dates, they seem to be coming up short on so far.
 

ZhugeEX

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I don't see what is 'misleading' about their statement.
It's misleading because half the people posting in this thread genuinely believe Xbox One software sales were higher than PS4 software sales.

Whilst their PR statement is factual like you say, people are interpreting it as something completely different. It's very easy to come to the conclusion above when it's not actually the case.

So that's why it's misleading.

Public opinion of the One is much better now.

You guys are undervaluing Halo.
Install base of the PS4 is growing much better now.

You guys are underestimating Uncharted 4.
 

Aquamarine

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I really can't stop laughing at how people keep trusting chartz and posting their numbers as if it's gospel. This is just another bit of proof that chartz make up their numbers....The game was delayed from the date listed on chartz yet they haven't fixed it and have still released "tracked" numbers claiming it's the 45th best seller..... Unbelievable.

Just did a random Chartz check for the hell of it.

Their GTA V number is significantly off. It's really bad.
 

Aquamarine

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I don't see what is 'misleading' about their statement.
Their statement is leading you exactly where they want to lead you. It's also factual.

And to Nirolak's point, it's such a moot argument anyway.
Because there's virtually no real differentiation there.

PS4 sold more overall software in January.
Well, Xbox sold more overall software in December and November.

It's so close it's arbitrary.
If Xbox had 1 more game, just one more exclusive game, then it would have overall more software sales than PS4 because the difference is far less than 1MM total units. The difference between hardware sold to date is pretty small, and the software is relatively similar ratio (if slightly bent to MS). So it's meaningless any way you look at it. Both are healthy.
It's only misleading such that it has been fooling some people in this thread and elsewhere.

I agree that nothing about what they said is inherently incorrect or false.

But if you don't think about it....if you just see "Xbox One sold more in January" and nothing else, it can lead you to false conclusions...and it has done already so.
 

ZhugeEX

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Just did a random Chartz check for the hell of it.

Their GTA V number is significantly off. It's really bad.
I just don't understand at all how a game that hasn't been released yet, and won't be released for another month has apparently sold more than Shadow Of Mordor and is the 45th best selling game of the week.

How does something like that even happen?

This is why people piss me off when they post chartz numbers as gospel.
 

Loakum

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I see the momentum shifting in Microsofts favor this new year.

I will say Microsoft will be in a much better postion, because of the wise changes they put into place. However, I doubt they will overtake the sales Juggernaut known as the PS4. The PS4 is shaping up to be another PS2 (actually even bigger).
 

Final Verdict

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Meh... tough to do the comparison since last time it was ALL packaged, and this time many games are being bought digitally. So yeah, I believe attach is still doing very well, but without digital it's very tough to say how well.

PS3 in '07 was high 3's, X360 in '06 was mid 4's. Last year both new ones were in low 3's.

Hardware is well ahead of last gen's pace, NPD said in their statement +60%.

Software pricing was just slightly lower for the new ones in year 2 versus last gen.
Interesting.
Thanks for the Insight.

I bought about 8/10 of my X1 games digitally, so I defiantly could see it being harder to tell.
But if they both hit a 3 attach rate last year for physical, then I think that is a good sign.
 

John Harker

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It's only misleading such that it has been fooling some people in this thread and elsewhere.

I agree that nothing about what they said is inherently incorrect or false.

But if you don't think about it....if you just see "Xbox One sold more in January" and nothing else, it can lead you to false conclusions...and it has done already so.
Well that's on the eye of the beholder then... though I do have a tendency to assume people will actually 'think' about things they encounter, I suppose maybe that one's on me ;).

Still, the info I shared is correct, so people can have fun with that :::shrug::