NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

Aquamarine

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Well that's on the eye of the beholder then... though I do have a tendency to assume people will actually 'think' about things they encounter, I suppose maybe that one's on me ;).

Still, the info I shared is correct, so people can have fun with that :::shrug::
:)

I know the argument is moot, silly. But it's still important in sales threads to be as accurate as you possibly can with the data released from the report.


I think more people need to ruminate on what you said, because the neck-and-neck software battle is very interesting and it always seems to be underestimated (or overlooked) in NPD threads.
 

Final Verdict

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I will say Microsoft will be in a much better postion, because of the wise changes they put into place. However, I doubt they will overtake the sales Juggernaut known as the PS4. The PS4 is shaping up to be another PS2 (actually even bigger).
It will be interesting to watch the PS4-PS2 race unfold over this generation.
I am confadent that it won't pass up PS2 #s before the PS5 comes out, but if it has good legs at the end of the cycle, 150M+ could be a real possibility, especially if it can take off in places like China, and India.

In the US though, I think that marketshare will remain in dead heat for the entirety of the generation with the Xbox.

I would not be surprised if X1 eventually surpassed PS4 LTD for the US in the upcoming years, but of coarse, even if they did, it would not be by much, and likely sway back in forth between the two.

I think that this year will be very telling as to weather or not more exclusive software will have a profound, or not so profound effect on PS4 sales.

People say that if the PS4 has sold so well to date without a ton of AAA exclusives, then it should sell like pixy dust once the tide really ramps up this year, and I think that is a very real possibility, but I am going to wait and see before making any predictions. (And I'm not trying to make a dumb "PS4 has no games" post, but I do believe that the PS4 has a much bigger and more appealing line up of AAA exclusives this year than last, so we will see.)
 

IndoAssassin

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Isn't the attachment rate like 3.8 vs 3.6 or
something?

The whole attachment ratio seems like a moot point if this is the case. However if it is greater than half a game, then it becomes interesting. But I would only attribute that to the X1 having more attractive exclusives than PS4 so far.
 

ZhugeEX

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It will be interesting to watch the PS4-PS2 race unfold over this generation.
It will certainly be interesting to watch but the PS2 was just something else. It really was like the Wii except without the decline in sales.

It'll be very hard for PS4 to match PS2 sales in the USA.... or any country tbh. The PS4 matching PS2's 155m+ sales is very hard to believe.

I mean the PS2 was still selling better than the 360 and even PS3 some months back when they first came out.
 

gundamkyoukai

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:)

I know the argument is moot, silly. But it's still important in sales threads to be as accurate as you possibly can with the data released from the report.


I think more people need to ruminate on what you said, because the neck-and-neck software battle is very interesting and it always seems to be underestimated (or overlooked) in NPD threads.
We need some DD data , as time goes on the info we going to get from NPD becoming less and less accurate on software.
I can see this effecting certain games more than others.
 

Alo0oy

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It will certainly be interesting to watch but the PS2 was just something else. It really was like the Wii except without the decline in sales.

It'll be very hard for PS4 to match PS2 sales in the USA.... or any country tbh. The PS4 matching PS2's 155m+ sales is very hard to believe.

I mean the PS2 was still selling better than the 360 and even PS3 some months back when they first came out.
We will never ever see a console sell as well as PS2, not unless MS steps out which is very very unlikely, but the PS4 can still surpass the PS1/Wii, the profits could still be higher than PS2 though if the PSN rebranding succeeds.
 
Jun 20, 2013
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Based on....what, exactly? They have nothing to compete w/ Bloodborn, Order, MLB etc in the first half, they've got to worry about RnC later, Uncharted even later, PS association w/ Batman, and a possible $299 PS4 and Morpheus in the Fall.

They're not taking anymore months until November at the earliest. It's even possible they don't take any this year period.

The question is when the gap grows, by how big does it grow to Sony's favor. Personally I don't see it being by as big a margin it was before last holiday unless something drastic happens that really hurts XBO.

PS4 will probably finish off with a 750k lead this year figuring they don't price drop too much and MS doesn't go even crazier with deals. But I don't see a $249 XBO coming this year, $499->$250 in just two years is like losing 100 pounds the wrong way, it can kill you. Their deals probably won't undercut Sony anywhere near as much as they did last holiday, and Sony'll get a huge bump with a price drop and Morpheus alone.
The Order, you're joking right? MLB The Show is also not a system seller. The casuals don't care about Bloodborne also
 

EatMyFace

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Public opinion of the One is much better now.

You guys are undervaluing Halo.
It's not really much different. It just had 2 great months of sales due to price cuts and bundles. Other than that? What's so different about public perception? The very fact that it got outsold in its "home" country after 2 months of great sales with a $50 price advantage over the competition says otherwise.
The Order, you're joking right? MLB The Show is also not a system seller. The casuals don't care about Bloodborne also
What's so funny about The Order?
MLB is the only baseball game on consoles at the moment. That's an advantage Sony has.
Bloodborne is a AAA game just like The Order. Game will push systems especially to Souls fans.
 

Taurus

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I will say Microsoft will be in a much better postion, because of the wise changes they put into place. However, I doubt they will overtake the sales Juggernaut known as the PS4. The PS4 is shaping up to be another PS2 (actually even bigger).
What a load of shit this is?

In Japan PS4 might sell about 10% of what PS2 did, so US and EU have a lot of catching up to do, which is basically impossible to happen.

First, Xbox brand is much stronger in US than it was in PS2 era, and will eat PS4's sales a lot which means that EU should see bigger console sales than ever before.

Second, there's too much competition from mobiles, tablets and other entertainment to ever see a single home console sell over 150 million pieces worldwide. Casuals are doing something else than buying consoles for Singstar.
 

Alo0oy

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What a load of shit this is?

In Japan PS4 might sell about 10t% of what PS2 did, so US and EU have a lot of catching up to do, which is basically impossible to happen.

First, Xbox brand is much stronger in US than it was in PS2 era, and will eat PS4's sales a lot which means that EU should see bigger console sales than ever before.

Second, there's too much competition from mobiles, tablets and other entertainment to ever see a single home console sell over 150 million pieces worldwide. Casuals are doing something else than buying consoles for Singstar.
The PS4 will only sell 2 million units in Japan?
 

Stone Ocean

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The Order, you're joking right? MLB The Show is also not a system seller. The casuals don't care about Bloodborne also
Yeah, cinematic, graphic marvel shooters with heavy marketing pushes are such a joke, the general populace won't care about The Order oneeeeee bit
 

Loakum

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What a load of shit this is?

In Japan PS4 might sell about 10t% of what PS2 did, so US and EU have a lot of catching up to do, which is basically impossible to happen.

First, Xbox brand is much stronger in US than it was in PS2 era, and will eat PS4's sales a lot which means that EU should see bigger console sales than ever before.

Second, there's too much competition from mobiles, tablets and other entertainment to ever see a single home console sell over 150 million pieces worldwide. Casuals are doing something else than buying consoles for Singstar.
Jinkies, such language. lol, you are aware that the PS4 is largely outpacing the PS2 in terms of sales, at this place in time of the console's release...right?

http://www.ign.com/articles/2014/11/14/playstation-4-continues-to-outpace-ps2-challenging-wii-for-fastest-selling-console?watch

http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikkain/2014/02/19/ps4-sales-outpace-all-previous-playstation-launches/
 

Nightengale

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which is basically impossible to happen.
Er... the only reason PS4 could sell 20+ million in the 15 months is because other countries have picked up the huge gap left behind by Japan. We have quantitative evidence of countries like Germany or Middle East becoming a much bigger market in terms of pace-of-adoption, and presumably that affects % contribution to the WW ratio.

I don't think PS4 will reach PS2 heights, but in terms of making up for Japan, I think that's more than feasible. What I don't think will happen is for Sony to have the same market share in US as they had during the PS2 days.
 

Inuhanyou

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The Order, you're joking right? MLB The Show is also not a system seller. The casuals don't care about Bloodborne also
And what does anyone care about on Bone more exactly if that's your opinion? MCC didn't even crack top 10 in the month in debuted, Quantum Break won't help much. Tomb Raider is timed and earns most of its sales on other platforms. As for the holidays, i doubt Sony is gonna rest on their laurels this year
 

speculawyer

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The Order, you're joking right? MLB The Show is also not a system seller. The casuals don't care about Bloodborne also
What? It certainly is for people that want to play a baseball game. There is literally no MLB game available for Xbone at all. (Or maybe there is some download-only shit MLB game.)

I'm kinda surprised MS hasn't done anything about this. When they launched the original Xbox, they worked hard to make sure that there would be baseball, football, and basketball games available for their platform.
 

Nightengale

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wasnt halo 4 the highest selling halo game of all time?
Highest selling "during launch year". Aka Halo 4 sold better in Nov/Dec than Halo 3 did in Sep/Oct/Nov/Dec of their respective launch years.

Tldr; Halo 4 had a better launch, but weaker legs. Halo 3 had weaker launch, but terrific legs.
 

Nightengale

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wasnt halo 4 the highest selling halo game of all time?
The quote in question :

Exciting news for the Halo team at 343 Industries and Microsoft Studios – critically acclaimed, “Halo 4” is now the best-selling Microsoft Studios title ever in the U.S. market*, surpassing its predecessor, “Halo 3” for sales during each respective launch year.
Bolded parts that needed to be emphasised.
 

ZSaberLink

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The COD games made for the Wii were good games. So were Boom Blox, the Dead Space rail shooter, the Resident Evil games, zak & wiki, etc. But the majority of software sales went to Nintendo, rock band/guitar hero, dancing games and party games.

Mad World and the Dead Steels were big bets.

Plenty of money and energy went to developing Wii games. A lot of them were great. Many of them weren't. But only the very upper tier could make enough return to be better risk/reward bets than on other platforms.

But compare the potential return of Inifinity Ward developing for Wii versus them developing cod for Ps3 and 360? No way you spend those people hours on the Wii given the development timeline and audiences. The return just wasn't there.

But Red Octane and Harmonix? Hell yeah they develop for Wii. That was A level talent, because the potential return was there.

Maybe third parties never "got" the Wii outside of dance/music and a couple things like Carnival Games. Maybe the shovelware drowned out the good titles and suffocated the market.

But to say there was some intentional ignoring of that market? Can't see that with the release count and things like the Spielberg deal.
Mad World released in 2009 and Red Steel 1 actually sold pretty well for being a terrible game. Thus no one was going to fall for Red Steel 2 even though it was actually a good game after the first one. Dead Space Extraction was a rail shooter after Umbrella Chronicles & Darkside Chronicles, and obviously is a lot easier than full FPSes. No, western third parties didn't really put their top tier talent on Wii. The best we got was CoD because Treyarch loves Nintendo, and those sold well enough considering how late these came, and how Modern Warfare skipped the Wii for so long. Very few tried, and most just tried way too late. After you release RE5 in March 2009, why would you expect the RE audience to be sitting on Wii for an on-rails shooter? Something like RE: Revelations probably would have been well-received on Wii imo.

Personally the only third parties having a top-tier team on the Wii targeting what was typically the PS3/360 audiences imo was Capcom with Monster Hunter Tri, and that did very well on Wii in Japan. It must have also done fine in the US, as they decided to localize the ones after that. Capcom could have also done something nice with Resident Evil (I think RE4 Wii did fairly well), but instead the Wii got rail shooters (Umbrella also did well iirc).
 

allan-bh

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Sorry, I couldn't find any source, it's been a while, maybe Aqua can help?
I don't doubt that Halo 3 sold more because the word of mouth was positive and Halo 4 MP displeased many fans, but Microsoft never announced Halo 4 global sales.

For USA we have a funny situation. Halo 2, 3, Reach and 4 all had the same sales on first NPD, ~3.3m.

I don't know if there is in fact a downtrend for Halo series. Guardians will show the answer.
 
Jun 26, 2013
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The Order, you're joking right? MLB The Show is also not a system seller. The casuals don't care about Bloodborne also
Yeah, The Order is such a joke that it's ranked ahead of both versions of Evolve on Amazon for February despite not being out yet (http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2015-02/videogames/ref=zg_bsar_videogames_pg_3?ie=UTF8&pg=3#2 ). Oh wait......

Does the XB1 have any equivalent baseball game to counter MLB 15: The Show? Exactly.

The Souls fanbase is fairly large. Bloodborne doesn't need casuals to sell. It just needs to be a good and enjoyable game.
 

ZSaberLink

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Honestly, I think numbers might go back to Gen 5 levels. PS4 might hit PS1 Levels, XB1 might hit N64 levels and Wii U will probably go over Saturn levels.
Well the Wii U is over Saturn #s now at least in terms of shipped #s.... so yay?
 

samar11

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There are a lot of aggressive bundles/sales for XB1 in germany but seeing the latest PAL Charts, you know the system is almost dead here. Even when MS closes the gap in NA, Sony has no pressure to pricecut the PS4 in US soon, because of the rest of the world. And when they finally lower the price to 350 $, sales are going to be hot for some months.

TOP50 last week


But MS is going to bring a monster marketing campaign to the table for Halo 5. It's probably going to be on of their biggest. They are really good with this. That release month alone is going to bring in big numbers for MS.
Worldwide or UK/NA ?
 

Alo0oy

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I don't doubt that Halo 3 sold more because the word of mouth was positive and Halo 4 MP displeased many fans, but Microsoft never announced Halo 4 global sales.

For USA we have a funny situation. Halo 2, 3, Reach and 4 all had the same sales on first NPD, ~3.3m.

I don't know if there is in fact a downtrend for Halo series. Guardians will show the answer.
Yeah, first month numbers are misleading, Halo 3 had long legs, meanwhile, Halo 4 launched during CoD's peak.

Can you share their NPD LTD Aqua?
 

CosmicQueso

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But if they both hit a 3 attach rate last year for physical, then I think that is a good sign.
It's higher than my own forecasts were a couple years ago so I completely agree with you.

People may disagree with me on it, but given the 96% correlation between pacakged SW sales and release count since 2009, I'm seeing the Packaged business delivering about the same average sales per title released, which means that the digital sales are largely incremental (in the most broad, general, total market sense. May not hold from title to title).

Digital convenience is bringing more dollars into the mix, while not decaying packaged sales much if at all. That's not what I'd expected from Digital.

Could be wrong.
 

Alo0oy

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How can you say that about Bloodborn when it hasn't even come out yet? And didn't DSII do something like 2 million in sales? That's pretty successful for a game of its ilk.

Don't know why you're downplaying The Order, either. It has the potential to be this gen's Gears.
There's no way The Order sells 5+ million, I think it will sell 2 million lifetime, Killzone will remain the best selling exclusive until UC4 & H5 launch.
 

BotoxAgent

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The Order, you're joking right? MLB The Show is also not a system seller. The casuals don't care about Bloodborne also
I am so happy that Sony is pushing for new properties like Bloodborne and The Order. I am sick of AssCreed, Call of Duty and Halo. These games don't really excite me anymore.