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NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

Aquamarine

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May 24, 2012
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Vita should be up each month YoY until May, since that was when the BL2 bundle came out, and supply dwindled until then. April was ~3k, so it's not really saying much.
Dwindled is a bit of an understatement, haha.


When you're down around 3K per month, the system is virtually non-existent on retail shelves.

Tens of thousands of retail video game stores in the USA, and only 3K in ONE MONTH out of all those stores?

Yeah.
 

Final Verdict

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Mar 5, 2014
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It's higher than my own forecasts were a couple years ago so I completely agree with you.

People may disagree with me on it, but given the 96% correlation between pacakged SW sales and release count since 2009, I'm seeing the Packaged business delivering about the same average sales per title released, which means that the digital sales are largely incremental (in the most broad, general, total market sense. May not hold from title to title).

Digital convenience is bringing more dollars into the mix, while not decaying packaged sales much if at all. That's not what I'd expected from Digital.

Could be wrong.
Yeah, me either, and it will get more interesting as streaming games becomes more popular in the future(maybe). I think that that could be a decent new revenue source for game makers, though it would be a tricky thing to do in some cases like with games that are high quality linear SP games such as the Order 1886 and could be completed in just one day.
 
May 21, 2014
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you're not listening to what I said. The 360's sales picked up and took off AFTER the PS3 hit shelves and was a known quantity. It's first year sales weren't anything to write home about, since everyone was waiting to see what Sony would do. That's why "launch aligning" the first year of the 360 doesn't make any sense. most people didn't jump in until year two, which is what the economist graph shows.
Alright, I take your point.

The wii sales WERE relevant when you consider what was competition for the PS2 at that time. The PS2 was a low cost, sixth gen console competing directly for sales dollars with the wii, which was close to it in performance. AT THAT TIME, the casual market was still picking up cheap consoles to play the occasional game or watch a movie.

Tablets and smartphones changed that game midway through the generation. The casual audience is more likely to use an iphone or ipad for this. That market is gone as of 2010/2011 and isn't coming back.
Positing that the casual market constituted a significant portion of the PS2's sales towards the end of its lifespan isn't the same thing as positing that it constituted a significant portion of the PS2's sales at the beginning of its lifespan.

Anyway, as I see it we're having two separate arguments:

1. About whether it's at all likely the PS4 will outsell the PS2 worldwide.

2. About whether the seventh generation had a healthy start or not.

The seventh generation had a healthy start if you think a significant portion of those blue ocean Wii buyers were just the continuation of the PS2's pre-existing casual playerbase with some non-gamers. If you believe that then you believe the Wii's sales were just a straightforward redo of the PS2's sales until tablets came along and that longstanding part of the console market vanished. The seventh generation is just like the sixth generation, according to this theory, with some reshuffling: casual PS2 players switch to Nintendo, a sizable chunk of core PS2 players switch to Microsoft, there's a rump left behind on the PS3.

I don't subscribe to that belief. I think software sales totals demonstrate that the casual/proto-Wii portion of the PS2's playerbase was relatively small (look at the sales totals for Singstar and the like compared to core games on the PS2 or the Wii's most popular casual franchises) and backloaded: in its early years it was a recognizably "core" system. It's not plausible that the Wii's early sales came principally from casual PS2 players. The Wii's sales success came from a larger proportion of non-gamers (and second console owners, who for the purposes of my argument are the same since the reason they were buying a second console was a unique characteristic of the Wii) compared to PS2 defectors. It was unrepresentative from the start because a very large proportion of its audience hadn't even been part of the market in the sixth generation: the seventh generation had a genuine influx of non-gamers who went straight to the Wii, and this covered up the fact that lots of core PS2 gamers just weren't buying PS3s and 360s until later in the generation.

This is why I'm less skeptical of the PS4 staying within striking distance of the PS2 than you are: I don't think the now-vanished casual market constituted a significant proportion of the PS2's sales early on, and I think the core has expanded enough since then that it's possible it'll be enough to counteract the disappearance of the casuals and the relatively increased competition from Xbox.

Edit: The counterargument to this could be "some of the vanished casuals were actually playing games that we would nowadays consider core on the PS2." That's certainly accurate to an extent, but I'm not sure I buy that they constituted a very large proportion of PS2 players. The most likely candidate for a "core" series popular among casuals on the PS2 is probably GTA, and it's not like GTA sales seem to have suffered from the casual exodus to tablets.
 

ascii42

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Mar 27, 2007
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Dwindled is a bit of an understatement, haha.


When you're down around 3K per month, the system is virtually non-existent on retail shelves.

Tens of thousands of retail video game stores in the USA, and only 3K in ONE MONTH out of all those stores?

Yeah.
Haha, yeah. Averaging a sale per store would be good by Vita standards. I'm generally impressed whenever a new title is announced for physical release for it. I mean, how much can stuff like Hyperdimension Neptunia possibly sell?
 

SonicBoom

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Mar 14, 2010
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So glad to see Dying Light succeed. Eat Crow :D haters!

I wonder how many units the game has sold......I so hate this NPD data with no numbers :( Why can't we be like the Japanese
 

Aquamarine

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May 24, 2012
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So glad to see Dying Light succeed. Eat Crow :D haters!

I wonder how many units the game has sold......I so hate this NPD data with no numbers :( Why can't we be like the Japanese
Because in Japan, we have Media Create and Famitsu compete against each other.



A long time ago, when there was only Famitsu in Japan, numbers were more infrequent.

It's only since Media Create came around that Famitsu has become much more public with data disclosure.

Competition drives Famitsu to advertise itself.



In the USA, NPD is the only video game sell-through tracker.

So they have absolutely no incentive to publicly provide exact numbers for anything.


Same with Europe / the rest of the world outside of Japan.
 

zeromcd73

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Mar 21, 2014
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Because in Japan, we have Media Create and Famitsu compete against each other.
+ Dengeki. They release a day later, but they also give the top 50 :D

I love how Japanese companies provide public data for everything every week! Anime, Manga, Music, Albums, Games, Karaoke.
 

Aquamarine

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May 24, 2012
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+ Dengeki. They release a day later, but they also give the top 50 :D

I love how Japanese companies provide public data for everything every week! Anime, Manga, Music, Albums, Games, Karaoke.
Famitsu and Dengeki are owned by the same company now (Kadokawa).


So it's really just Media Create and Famitsu in terms of competition.
 

allan-bh

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May 16, 2006
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Sorry about that.

Let me rack my brain...


Halo is a little over 4 million.

Halo 2 is nearly 4 million by itself....and I think....the special edition adds another 1.5 million?

Halo 3 is.....did it hit 7 million?

Ugh I can't remember...sorry man.
I remember when Halo 3 sold 6 million. If sold another million is impressive.

And good to know that Halo 4 at least outsold Reach.
 

heidern

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Jun 7, 2004
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If PS4 sells 15M a year then it will get to around 80M by end of 2018. Not sure it can maintain that pace though. It's already received a few of its biggest franchises(COD, AC, Madden) as well as Watchdogs/Destiny. I don't think the likes of Bloodborne, FF, MGS, RE etc can make a big difference compared to what's already out there. The best bet is GTA and new IPs.
 

ersocaster

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Jul 7, 2014
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Dude are you serious? Dont post shit about games u aint played yet
I'm not understanding how what he said is any different than the person who said The Order would have a better story than Gears.

I never understood how we can hype games we never played but not negatively react to games we never played.
 
May 21, 2014
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I'm not understanding how what he said is any different than the person who said The Order would have a better story than Gears.

I never understood how we can hype games we never played but not negatively react to games we never played.
We don't need to have played The Order to know that it'll have a better story than Gears. We can tell that from watching the hour of footage that's been made available: The Order is on another level compared to Gears when it comes to voice acting, dialog, and setting.
 

Duxxy3

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Nov 30, 2007
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If PS4 sells 15M a year then it will get to around 80M by end of 2018. Not sure it can maintain that pace though. It's already received a few of its biggest franchises(COD, AC, Madden) as well as Watchdogs/Destiny. I don't think the likes of Bloodborne, FF, MGS, RE etc can make a big difference compared to what's already out there. The best bet is GTA and new IPs.
Once it hits $299 shit is gonna go bonkers.

Uncharted will be big. Black ops 3 will be enormous. Then we have destiny 2 and red dead redemption 2. Those are gonna sell 10+ million. Maybe when the system hits $199 we'll finally see gta7.
 

The Artisan

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Jul 13, 2014
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Sorry about that.

Let me rack my brain...


Halo is a little over 4 million.

Halo 2 is nearly 4 million by itself....and I think....the special edition adds another 1.5 million?

Halo 3 is.....did it hit 7 million?

Ugh I can't remember...sorry man.
wait a sec, are these LTD numbers? I thought halo 2 alone sold over 8 million copies
 

Aquamarine

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May 24, 2012
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right, got it.

that is what I was thinking, but I also thought the 8 million was done in the U.S alone.
8 million copies is what Halo 2 sold worldwide.

USA sell-through is nowhere near that. Remember, the original Xbox only sold-through 14 million consoles in the USA.

Oh god no lol. That would mean an insane attach rate for the US.
It would essentially mean 56% of original Xbox owners in the USA would own Halo 2....yeah...that's a bit too extravagant.
 

The Artisan

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Jul 13, 2014
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Oh god no lol. That would mean an insane attach rate for the US.
but the successor - the 360 did have a pretty high attach rate, and I'm guessing most effective in the U.S
8 million copies is what Halo 2 sold worldwide.

USA sell-through is nowhere near that. Remember, the original Xbox only sold-through 14 million consoles in the USA.
I didn't even know that, but now that I do, I shall remember it =]


It would essentially mean 56% of original Xbox owners in the USA would own Halo 2....yeah...that's a bit too extravagant.
I guess so, but Halo definitely was xbox's one and only killer, killer app
 

samar11

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Oct 20, 2013
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One is both #1 and making profits. I'll let you take a guess as to which one.

November is Microsofts best chance based on Halo 5 alone. I don't think they have any other AAA releases before then that can actually make a difference.
lol yes I know ps4 is number 1 and making a profit. I am just saying Microsoft will do anything to try and become number one in NA even if it costs them a crap load.
 

Conduit

Banned
Jun 20, 2014
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it wasn't a full month of $349. we'll find out this month if their momentum is up.
349$ is not the reason. MS still selling Xbone AC bundle and according to Amazon.com, ( which is 100% right indicator to date and which console will sell most that month, ), they will not beat PS4.

really? the Ps4 has been outselling the xbone week after week since the january 16th price cut?
Yes, from the from beginning of the month. 2 weeks after 349$ didn't do shit.
 

Square2015

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Oct 10, 2010
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Because in Japan, we have Media Create and Famitsu compete against each other.



A long time ago, when there was only Famitsu in Japan, numbers were more infrequent.

It's only since Media Create came around that Famitsu has become much more public with data disclosure.

.
Well Famitsu Weekly has had their top 30 every week going back to 1992, biweekly since 1986, and always public as part of their weekly magazine (it's like Newsweek or Time over here) ...lucky Japanese. (Altho when famitsu began their top 30 they only used 5 chains, haha and gradually expanded)

Dengeki's been tracking sales since at least 1993 but not weekly.

Japan's always had great public sales data, essentially since the market began.
 
Jul 7, 2014
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Hey you never know; they could surprise announcing MP on launch day!

Could go that way, but if the game gets pretty strong reviews across the board sales could go higher. I don't think KZ ever had the mainstream appeal something like The Order does. Thematically something like The Order is very en vogue these days in Hollywood, and all they need is the right commercial.

Advertising on television isn't a strength of Sony unfortunately :(
I have seen a decent amouny of commercials for The Order 1886. More than any other PS4 exclusive so far. Mostly during during NBA games. I see the market they are targeting.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Oct 13, 2014
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I think there's a chance that February breaks the streak for amazon. January was closer than I thought it would be.

Amazon was giving PS+ and then mordor, something that other retailers weren't doing. Also don't think the order will shift consoles.
Not gonna happen, February is pretty much said and done for PS4 unless a big upset.
Not only has the PS4 outsold XB1 every single day this month so far on Amazon, but Gamestop is running a promo for 3 weeks making the PS4 $275 if you trade a PS3 or 360.
 

Saty

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Sep 4, 2009
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Because in Japan, we have Media Create and Famitsu compete against each other.



A long time ago, when there was only Famitsu in Japan, numbers were more infrequent.

It's only since Media Create came around that Famitsu has become much more public with data disclosure.

Competition drives Famitsu to advertise itself.



In the USA, NPD is the only video game sell-through tracker.

So they have absolutely no incentive to publicly provide exact numbers for anything.


Same with Europe / the rest of the world outside of Japan.
But now we don't even get worldwide shipped numbers from Pubs in their financial reports. This is the new new Dark Ages of sales data. Wofenstein, Mordor, TEW, FH2, SO -- it's anybody's guess what's the least specific data you can get (WW shipments).

The most exciting sales data event is Kyle Orland's talk at GDC which may provide more Steam games numbers.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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The seventh generation didn't have a difficult start. The PS3 did, but the 7th generation as a whole had an immediate, phenomenal success in the launch of the Wii, and the 360 took off around the same time, though not to the same degree. The 360 had identical or BETTER performance than the PS3, with 90% of the same games, for a lot less money. as we've seen with the mainstream moving from the PS2 to the 360/Wii and back to the PS4 between generations, the mass market isn't brand loyal to video game systems at all.

Plenty of people were buying plenty of 7th gen consoles, but still continued to pick up PS2s due to the massive library that could be had for next to nothing (remember, used games were huge for ps2) and super low price point.
I'm pretty sure the PS3 vastly outsold the Xbox 360 launch aligned, outsold it by at least 10 million in fact, since when the PS3 launched X360 had sold 10 million already. & how did the mainstream move from PS2 to X360? How can the least selling console be "the mainstream"? I'm gonna assume you're talking NA only since that's the only way your post makes sense.
 

Conduit

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Jun 20, 2014
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It isn't even mediocre, it is poor. PS3 only sold less than 200k in January 2012, five years after the launch.

Now we have confirmation why Sony has been doing deals in February. I think they'll only drop the price in the second half of the year, though.

Based on the posted numbers:



PS4 and Xbox One have fallen behind PS2.
Huh...

I knew it was going to happen, but I'll admit, sooner than I expected.

Still, this generation has a long waaay till the end.
 

Alo0oy

Banned
Oct 12, 2014
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FIFA on PS4, PES 2015 on PS4. Madden on PS4 a few months ago????
I think he's talking about the demographic in general, those games sold better on PS4 through brute force, PS4 had ~1 million lead when those games launched, even last gen CoD/Madden/Battlefield sold better on 360 while GTA/Tomb Raider/Resident Evil/JRPGs sold better on PS3. That's why X360 was always mocked as the "dudebro console".

FIFA is the only exception, since it's bigger outside of NA than inside NA.
 

Nightengale

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Jun 12, 2013
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What's the point if Xbone is dead in Europe outside UK?
They're a business, they're trying to compete.

It's not all that different from Sony doubling down on Destiny marketing. The natural assumption for a game like Destiny is that it would've done better on Xbox.

Bungie, Halo heritage, sci-fi FPS.

Sony wants that audience on their platform. By many measures, they have achieved a considerable gain.
 

gundamkyoukai

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Aug 30, 2009
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I think he's talking about the demographic in general, those games sold better on PS4 through brute force, PS4 had ~1 million lead when those games launched, even last gen CoD/Madden/Battlefield sold better on 360 while GTA/Tomb Raider/Resident Evil/JRPGs sold better on PS3. That's why X360 was always mocked as the "dudebro console".

FIFA is the only exception, since it's bigger outside of NA than inside NA.
But you can also say some of those games sold better on 360 thanks to brute force.
In NA the 360 did have a 10 million plus lead on PS3 early on.
For eg i think something like madden just sells better on system that has the most sales, demographics not that big of a factor .
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Mar 20, 2007
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Yep it has been behind PS4 every day since the price drop.I think the market has set itself again. PS4 is the better value in consumer's minds even with a $50 premium.
Not sure how anyone can say that it would have been impossible for the Xbox One to get Janaury if it stayed at $350 in a month in which both consoles sold under 200K.

Some people who saw that the system was more than $350 during that period didn't get one and are holding out for next Holiday season even though the system is at $350 right now (either due to them feeling that it would be a better time to get a console due to deals or some simply not knowing the system is back at $350).

PS4 is taking this month (February) and more than likely next month due to its exclusive games; I would say that the people who are buying consoles during this period are more "gamer oriented"; they aren't the same as the people who were simply looking for the best deal due to the exclusive games greatly helping sales this month. I'm positive that the exclusives will help to push the PS4 above 200K for February.
 

Alo0oy

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Oct 12, 2014
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But you can also say some of those games sold better on 360 thanks to brute force.
In NA the 360 did have a 10 million plus lead on PS3 early on.
For eg i think something like madden just sells better on system that has the most sales, demographics not that big of a factor .
I was talking about WW, FPS/Sports games (minus FIFA) always sold better on X360, sometimes significantly, it's one of the reasons FPS games became so prominent last gen, they sold A LOT on X360, while software sales on PS3 spread around different genres.
 

CadetMahoney

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Mar 14, 2009
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Microsoft will do anything to try and become number one in NA even if it costs them a crap load.
I doubt it at this point, they can't be that confident with bones underpowered and cost where they honestly think an inferior product can become no.1

The recent price drop then rise is something they had no choice doing out of desperation to increase sales, but it's certainly not something they wanted to do.