NPD Sales Results for January 2015 [PS4 #1, Nintendo Numbers, XB1 Minimum]

2thepoint

Junior Member
Aug 28, 2014
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PS4 sounds right. XB1 and Wii U seem too high.

I would say...

PS4: 90 Million
Xbox One: 45 Million
Wii U: 15 Million
PS4 may cross 100 million when all is said and done.

Wii U is probably 15-20.

But Xbox One, that juggernaut could hit half a billion, right Yusuf?

The Age of One shall reign down on humanity, bringing mankind forward through the efforts of our dear leader, Philip Spencer.
 
May 16, 2006
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Didn't PS3 sell like 80m already? Or are we closer to ~85 by now?
PS4 has significantly outsold the PS3 in the same time frame, I don't see how it will only sell 90m the way its been dominating this gen so far. It will easily blow past 100m.
80 million was in november 2013. I think is more than 85 million by now. The thing is that last gen was very long and benefited PS3.

I can see PS4 selling 100m, but will not easily hit that mark.
 
Jun 5, 2011
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Didn't PS3 sell like 80m already? Or are we closer to ~85 by now?
PS4 has significantly outsold the PS3 in the same time frame, I don't see how it will only sell 90m the way its been dominating this gen so far. It will easily blow past 100m.
The PS3 came out in 2006, my estimates are only for 5 years. The PS4 should easily surpass it. Other comments are probably right, too optimistic for both Wii-U and XB1 numbers. Maybe 20 and 50 million would be a better guess.
 
May 23, 2013
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I think it's past 85m shipped.
Probably over 87 million by now.



Actually, I know this isn't NPD related but it's sales related.

Here is a comparison of global sales for electronic products:
Number of smartphones sold in 2014: 1301m
Number of PC’s sold in 2014: 316m
Number of tablets sold in 2014: 230m
Number of home consoles sold in 2014: 34.8m
Number of dedicated handhelds sold in 2014: 11.2m

You can read the full article I wrote here. Certainly shows how big the smartphone market is compared to any other market let alone just consoles.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Feb 4, 2007
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That's quite predictable. It had one of its worst months last January and sales were down this holiday.

Funny how the WiiU might overtake it (if it hasn't already).
Total sales? Not even close. Monthly? It's been closer before: <15k difference.

If N3DS reinvigorates the platform beyond February I don't see Wii U outselling it one month happening soon.
 
May 23, 2013
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The smartphone is the first technology to reach a 1:1 attach rate with human population.

That's just astounding if you stop and think about it. The personal computer never did that. TV never did that. Not even Radio ever did that.
Yup, active install base of smartphones exceeds 2.2 billion users at the moment. Mobile phones as a whole now have over 4.2 billion unique users. (If you look at total subscriptions that's over 6 billion as lots of people have multiple SIM cards)
 
Jan 13, 2008
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The smartphone is the first technology to reach a 1:1 attach rate with human population.

That's just astounding if you stop and think about it. The personal computer never did that. TV never did that. Not even Radio ever did that.
Actually the personal computer did win.

The smartphone is misnamed, it should be called a pocket computer. It's a personal computer shrunk to fit in your pocket/purse. The actual phone is a very minor part of the smartphone. It's all about Internet and apps, which are borrowed from the personal computer.
 
Feb 24, 2014
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Actually the personal computer did win.

The smartphone is misnamed, it should be called a pocket computer. It's a personal computer shrunk to fit in your pocket/purse. The actual phone is a very minor part of the smartphone. It's all about Internet and apps, which are borrowed from the personal computer.
Pocket Computer

PC

PC Master Race
 
Oct 27, 2004
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No way they close out this year at $399.
I'd definitely say it's low likelihood, but not because Sony couldn't keep it there. I think Microsoft is going to continue the trend of being aggressive and I think even Sony realizes that despite there being no chance at an XBO global win it's probably not good strategy to let Microsoft take the US just due to complacency and the desire to want to go too long wringing out a few extra dollars.

As a business I think they were very smart to keep the price where they did last Holiday, but I don't think it'd be too bright to do it for a third holiday. Question is if they'll do a deep discount ($100) or just the $50 with a game pack-in for the Holidays.
 
Jun 5, 2011
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I'd definitely say it's low likelihood, but not because Sony couldn't keep it there. I think Microsoft is going to continue the trend of being aggressive and I think even Sony realizes that despite there being no chance at an XBO global win it's probably not good strategy to let Microsoft take the US just due to complacency and the desire to want to go too long wringing out a few extra dollars.

As a business I think they were very smart to keep the price where they did last Holiday, but I don't think it'd be too bright to do it for a third holiday. Question is if they'll do a deep discount ($100) or just the $50 with a game pack-in for the Holidays.
Hard to say, Sony and especially Nintendo need to be profitable. There is a lot of pressure on Sony to rebuild itself financially. They managed to keep the XB1 from gaining too much significant ground for those two months in the US and the next few months at least will probably go back to the PS4. A game bundled in for $399 will keep them on top even if the XB1 is $50 cheaper. My gut tells me a $50 permanent price drop between E3 and November. Microsoft will counter with a $299 slim model unveiled at E3 (without Kinect). They should offer a premium model with Kinect and a 1TB hard drive for $399. Nintendo? I don't think they have a clue what to do next.
 
Apr 26, 2013
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The smartphone is the first technology to reach a 1:1 attach rate with human population.

That's just astounding if you stop and think about it. The personal computer never did that. TV never did that. Not even Radio ever did that.
Do you have a link you this? I find this hard to believe considering how many places in the world there are where smartphones aren't that common
 
Nov 30, 2014
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Damn, sales were more disappointing than my prediction. ~193K for PS4 and ~143K for XB1? I was expecting 250K for PS4 but my XB1 prediction was very close. I hope February is much better for the PS4 with the release of The Order 1886
 
Apr 18, 2005
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The COD games made for the Wii were good games. So were Boom Blox, the Dead Space rail shooter, the Resident Evil games, zak & wiki, etc. But the majority of software sales went to Nintendo, rock band/guitar hero, dancing games and party games.

Mad World and the Dead Steels were big bets.

Plenty of money and energy went to developing Wii games. A lot of them were great. Many of them weren't. But only the very upper tier could make enough return to be better risk/reward bets than on other platforms.

But compare the potential return of Inifinity Ward developing for Wii versus them developing cod for Ps3 and 360? No way you spend those people hours on the Wii given the development timeline and audiences. The return just wasn't there.
I don't believe this matches up with the reality at the time, so will go through piece by piece to give my perspective on it.

COD:
COD3 sold more on Wii than PS3 from launch, and COD4 didn't come to the Wii until the second-tier team (Treyarch) did what the primary team (IW) said was impossible, and 2 years later. COD took off last gen with COD4, so the fact it missed the Wii completely while there was still a good shot of having a core base there doomed it. Yes, the CODs that Wii did eventually get still did okay on their own, but were relatively small compared to the main team's focus on PS360.

Boom Blox:
A niche experimental title (doesn't matter that it was started by Spielberg; It didn't play into the final piece. Like talking about "from the producers of <insert hit movie>" doesn't mean much for a totally unrelated movie and would mean even less for a book (i.e. different medium than the "big name" is known for)) that actually sold okay but was still a niche experimental title.

Dead Space rail shooter:
This was a bait-and-switch by EA. They announced a "Dead Space" title coming to Wii. Most everyone figured it'd be a port of Dead Space 1, which was supposed to be an RE4 type game, and most everyone was happy with that idea. Then the announcement that it was a rail shooter was kind of a death knell to any hopes the title had. Wii may have been great for rail shooters, but not instead of the games they audience really wanted. After RE4's sales on the system, it's pretty clear that an RE4-type, even late port, of Dead Space 1 probably would've been much better received.

Resident Evil games:
RE4 was great. Best version of the game at least until the HD version came out recently on PC. No RE5. Follow-on games were light gun games that no one who wanted another RE4 type game was satisfied with and it got worse when the third game was another light gun affair instead of the obviously preferred RE4 followup.

Zak & Wiki:
I bought it. The game itself is a point-and-click adventure type game. Good to see that type of game tried on the system, but point-and-click adventures have never been big on consoles in sales.

Mad World:
See Godhand on PS2 for comparison.

Dead Steels:
Red Steel. To be fair, the first game was a good experiment at launch, and it sold okay (maybe not as well as it should've/Ubisoft wanted, though). Personally, I was majorly turned off by the huge bounding box, and never bought the game. Red Steel 2 was a Motion+ title, but the Motion+ was just being used to key delayed animations on screen. Not real 1:1 gameplay. That held zero appeal to me. Personally, I did buy the WiiWare Ghost Motion + title that came out shortly after Wii Sports Resort, but that was mainly because I wanted a full Motion + sword game. Red Steel 2 did not fit that bill for me.

Infinity Ward:
It's not an either/or situation. They could've made games for both PS360 and Wii (or just farmed out the Wii port to some other team, if they couldn't spare the man-hours; just something to not miss the Wii in 2007). With how Wii was selling in 2007 and how core games were selling on the system then even with very little support, everyone should've been busting their butts to get games ported to the system. They didn't. The nascent Wii core audience attritioned elsewhere over the next 12-24 months. That was pretty much it for core games on Wii outside of Nintendo and how Treyarch tried their darnedest to not leave the system out of their ports.

Edit:
As has been conceded multiple times by me over the years, Nintendo did not do nearly enough to get publishers over their fears of developing for Wii. Co-developing, outright paying for ports just to get the ball rolling. Nintendo could've done a lot to help third-parties overcome their fears, and they didn't. I am not laying this 100% at third-party publishers feet, but by no means whatsoever did third-parties try their best on Wii. At all.

Edit2:
Toned down the post to try to stay more even-keeled.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Aug 7, 2013
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Some people were excited about the positive environmental impact of removing the packed in charger from the new 3DS.

Those people are going to be even more thrilled when they stop making hardware altogether. Think of all the plastic and chemicals that will not be added to the world!!
;.;
 
Oct 17, 2010
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6 million is very low if we look at the 8 million the series hit before UC3 launch & the 17 million 5 months after launch, unless you believe Uncharted Vita sold 4 million units in two months, which means that at the time of the reported 17 million figure, every Vita owner owner had 2.5 copies of Golden Abyss.

Uncharted 3 definitely sold 9 of those 17 million, & probably a couple of million more since, making it *possibly* the best selling PS3 exclusive.
Dude you need to stop. Uncharted 1 & 2 didn't stop selling the day U3 launched.

Uncharted 1: 4.5 million
Uncharted 2: 6.5 million
Uncharted 3: 6.5 million
Golden Abyss: 1.5 million

Total: 19 million

Is a much more realistic estimate.
 
Nov 16, 2010
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Some people were excited about the positive environmental impact of removing the packed in charger from the new 3DS.

Those people are going to be even more thrilled when they stop making hardware altogether. Think of all the plastic and chemicals that will not be added to the world!!
Well, I do tend to care about mother Earth before anything else. I have my priorities straight.
 
Mar 3, 2010
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Not a good month for numbers.
The PS4 will be 299 in September, and as always it will be announced at Gamescom.

Some people were excited about the positive environmental impact of removing the packed in charger from the new 3DS.

Those people are going to be even more thrilled when they stop making hardware altogether. Think of all the plastic and chemicals that will not be added to the world!!
Haha.
 
Feb 16, 2010
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Mars
I'm 6 beers in. If I'm talking garbage please excuse me.

Donny, I hear you. I had to pull back the "tried their best" phrasing after Opiate laid out a very compelling case. That was still a lot of resources invested in trying to make Wii development a success. But you're right, and I was wrong in my assessment. Lets brofist it out.

And I'm sorry for getting so much salt on my post Vinny. :(
 
May 21, 2014
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I really don't think it was ever in the cards for the mainstream AAA audience to just hang out on a non-HD console for the entirety of the seventh generation. I can see arguing that maybe the major publishers should have invested more resources into making games tailored for the Wii's audience, though in the end it's pretty clear they made the right call not doing so. It makes no sense to argue that if they'd produced higher-quality AAA games the Wii would have been able to hold on to a larger share of the core audience.
 
Nov 30, 2014
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Overall, sales are decent but compared to January 2008, sales are nothing more than disappointing. I hope sales of current gen consoles don't face a sharp decline starting from now. Very unlikely, I know, but this has been an extremely weird generation so far. Don't get me the wrong way, I'm not one of those "consoles are dead" guys but I'm curious to see what happens.

P.S. Did I get my X1 figures wrong? Is it 10K more?
 
Apr 18, 2005
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Donny, I hear you. I had to pull back the "tried their best" phrasing after Opiate laid out a very compelling case. That was still a lot of resources invested in trying to make Wii development a success.
I'm just overly sensitive on the matter. Most people probably didn't even think about it much at the time, but as someone who was sitting there in Summer 2007 wondering where all the third-party support was with Wii selling better than bread (cue chart from earlier in the thread) and after having developers say in the previous gen that they'd do anything it takes to put their games on PS2 with that large an install base, it smarts more than a little. I'm mostly over it with current gen systems and am fine with the realization of Wii U's doomedness and 3DS's ever-shrinking target audience. It's just after going through the GameCube years hearing everyone say that the reason GameCube didn't get certain games was due to install base, and then the Wii having a huge install base from the start and still not getting the games, it still stings.

In particular if you go back to the Dead Space on Wii announcement thread (no mention of the title, but the obvious choice was RE4-type Dead Space 1), I was really positive on it. Saying this was where third-parties were finally turning things around on Wii and really looking forward to Dead Space with RE4 controls on Wii. And then the announcement of it being a rail shooter kind of tore my heart out.

Old hurts. I have a hard time getting past them. You're a good guy, though. Sorry for blowing up on your post. :(

Lets brofist it out.
*brofist*

Cheers!

Edit:
Also, I really enjoyed the further discussion between you and Opiate. The idea that third-parties might've wanted to starve out mid-level developers to make fewer players in the market is an interesting one. On forums, we looked at all the studios closing and were dismayed. The idea that the big third-party publishers might've been looking positively at such events never crossed my mind.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
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...So can the 3DS appoximation not be said I guess?

How about over or under 65k?
Handheld hardware revenue was in the region of $20M. Vita sold 39% of 3DS. If hardware was sold for $199 then that would be ~70K for the 3DS and ~28K for the Vita, but since there is a cheaper 3DS model both should be a bit above that.

Also looking at those January 2008 hardware numbers wow. MS are the only ones that aren't down over 50% this month in comparison.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
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The idea that third-parties might've wanted to starve out mid-level developers to make fewer players in the market is an interesting one. On forums, we looked at all the studios closing and were dismayed. The idea that the big third-party publishers might've been looking positively at such events never crossed my mind.
Of course it was the mid-level developers that could have taken risks on the Wii with no competition from the big guys in an effort to become the new big guys. That was the real missed opportunity. Although to be fair, even Nintendo didn't take many risks and instead ended up just trying to use Wii Sports as a trojan horse to sell more Mario branded games.
 
Jun 7, 2004
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Also, I really enjoyed the further discussion between you and Opiate. The idea that third-parties might've wanted to starve out mid-level developers to make fewer players in the market is an interesting one. On forums, we looked at all the studios closing and were dismayed. The idea that the big third-party publishers might've been looking positively at such events never crossed my mind.
this has been a running theory for me for a couple of years now. the audience on the paywall twins is basically the fruits of their labor. less variety, more predictability, and an increased focus on consumers with high inelastic demand means they can keep making the same general kinds of games as long as they're new intellectual properties.

as bitter as that sounds, it's not limited to the sony and microsoft platforms, and i think at least the first-parties did try to reach outside of established fanbases. sony wants kids and families, so they're doing the platformer thing (movies for sly and ratchet, remake of ratchet, the updated tearaway game, and the continued of promotion of littlebigplanet). microsoft seemed to position the xbox one with kinect as the futuristic platform for joe averageman, with a heavy emphasis on television and input. it's third-parties who have sort of stopped trying.

while i'm on this subject, i'd say nintendo also gave up this generation. they do get a big pass though for actually having grown the market relatively recently, but i am super disappointed with them just doing what third-parties on other platforms are doing and focusing on a rather predictable userbase. to make a long theory short, i think mismanagement started in 2008 and wasn't actually being corrected until 2012. they're at a point where they really can't take risks because of a bunch of poor decisions from half a decade ago. maybe that's where some third-parties are now too.